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Author Topic: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"  (Read 8296 times)

keefe

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #25 on: December 04, 2016, 08:53:51 PM »
To be fair, people who use ERs for the things he mentioned, any many other minor problems, create a big financial problem with the healthcare system.

People use the ER because they don't have access to care.

Politicians have made the VA an issue but the reality is that the VA does superb work in the specialty it was designed for - the treatment and care of Wounded Warriors. I still go to the VA at least once a month and the quality of care has been exceptional. The problem is that the VA has become a social safety net for many vets who, while entitled to care, are not combat wounded and therefore have a very low priority. The VA was not set up for them and continues to lack the funding to take care of these guys who have fallen through the cracks of the mainstream private healthcare system.

Healthcare in this country is stunningly good in terms of the quality of care. Access, on the other hand, is deploringly bad.


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jesmu84

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #26 on: December 04, 2016, 09:43:00 PM »
People use the ER because they don't have access to care.

Politicians have made the VA an issue but the reality is that the VA does superb work in the specialty it was designed for - the treatment and care of Wounded Warriors. I still go to the VA at least once a month and the quality of care has been exceptional. The problem is that the VA has become a social safety net for many vets who, while entitled to care, are not combat wounded and therefore have a very low priority. The VA was not set up for them and continues to lack the funding to take care of these guys who have fallen through the cracks of the mainstream private healthcare system.

Healthcare in this country is stunningly good in terms of the quality of care. Access, on the other hand, is deploringly bad.

Eh....

There are a lot of people who walk through the doors of the ER who would be much better to go to an urgent care or find a family doc or even a clinic. The access is there, most people just don't want to find it. It's easier to go to a hospital/ER.

MU82

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #27 on: December 04, 2016, 10:36:52 PM »

For instance, I expect my job will not exist in 15 years, I think you should too. 

My jobs are coaching and refereeing youth basketball (though not in the same game), umpiring youth baseball and doing a little freelance writing. I expect all to exist in 15 years ... but will my desire to do any of them still exist when the alternative (lying around a beach in Hawaii) is so attractive? That is the question!
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Babybluejeans

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #28 on: December 04, 2016, 11:17:22 PM »
My jobs are coaching and refereeing youth basketball (though not in the same game), umpiring youth baseball and doing a little freelance writing. I expect all to exist in 15 years ... but will my desire to do any of them still exist when the alternative (lying around a beach in Hawaii) is so attractive? That is the question!

15 years?! Mad dog and those other dingbats are going to get us all killed before we have to worry about our jobs' obsolescence.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2016, 09:13:09 AM by Babybluejeans »

#UnleashSean

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #29 on: December 05, 2016, 01:08:44 AM »
We're in the middle between our old economy and a star trek one (where there's enough surplus of everything and people so what they want)
Were to far away from a surplus of everything but have enough that tons of people are useless in jobs. It's gunna get rougher before it finally turns around

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #30 on: December 05, 2016, 07:41:18 AM »
So, Hawking and Kaczinsky had a meeting of the minds?

Seriously, though, as someone who worked in the field, I always felt conflicted because I felt that technology would eventually lead to the breakdown of civil society.

I have seen nothing over the last few years to make me feel any different. The rise of unsocial media has only accelerated the process. We see an example of it here as we are unable to have a simple Politics Board.

Unsocial media?  Brandx you may like this recent article from The Atlantic.

How Social Media Got Weaponized—War in the Digital Age

http://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2016/10/the-atlantics-november-tech-issue-how-social-media-got-weaponizedwar-in-the-digital-age/503630/



MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #31 on: December 05, 2016, 07:48:09 AM »

As for jobs being lost to technology.  Absolutely, one can legitimately argue that (at least for NAFTA, not for China), increased trade has created more jobs.  Most jobs that are gone or leaving can be, or will be automated in the next 5-10 years.  We need to start looking at sociological solutions to what will become a growing economic problem.  Large segments of the population that will be unemployed.


I think increased international trade has definitely created more jobs. 
Companies who outsource either were too lazy to initiate cost saving technology innovate and automate and utilize lean manufacturing techniques or their industry simply became a commodity run-of-the mill item.

GGGG

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #32 on: December 05, 2016, 08:57:12 AM »
I think increased international trade has definitely created more jobs. 
Companies who outsource either were too lazy to initiate cost saving technology innovate and automate and utilize lean manufacturing techniques or their industry simply became a commodity run-of-the mill item.


The problem is that it doesn't create the same type of jobs.  Free trade is great for a society overall.  But labor isn't a fluid commodity so some segments of society don't benefit much from free trade.

MU82

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #33 on: December 05, 2016, 09:02:36 AM »
15 years?! Mad dog and those other dingbats are going to get us all killed before we have to worry about our jobs' obselence.

Good point. I'd better start having more fun now!
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

muwarrior69

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #34 on: December 05, 2016, 09:32:01 AM »
Unsocial media?  Brandx you may like this recent article from The Atlantic.

How Social Media Got Weaponized—War in the Digital Age

http://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2016/10/the-atlantics-november-tech-issue-how-social-media-got-weaponizedwar-in-the-digital-age/503630/

I am trying to get some venture capital to start an unsocial media site to compete with Facebook. I'm calling it Buttbook.

tower912

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #35 on: December 05, 2016, 09:34:50 AM »
In the community I live/work in, there is an absence of urgent care centers in the poor neighborhoods and a glut of them around the edges of the area.    It is actually a shorter trip to the ER.    And people with experience in the system know that if they go by ambulance vs walking in to the ER that they will be seen much sooner.     Last week, my wife had an asthmatic episode, I took her to an urgent care center, and she was treated and on her way home in 3 hours.   But not everyone has the access or understands that as an option. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #36 on: December 05, 2016, 09:54:21 AM »
Automation is a thing that will not go away, and while it will be painful for some or a lot of people, it is ultimately a good thing. The amount of work available to humans is not changing, but what the work consists of. Just like someone doesn't necessarily need to understand the fundamental principals of calculus to be able to use calculus, you don't have to know how to code to be able to use automation to your advantage.

Creativity and innovation has never been closer to the "average" human's reach than it is right now. The problem is we aren't positioning society to take advantage of that capability. We are delivering 1980s education for a 21st century environment. As an example, there is zero reason that an 8th grade inner city kid couldn't be inventing things and producing some innovative tool or toy or whatever through 3D printing and coding. Technology has made earlier adoption pretty easy but the mass population doesn't know about them or how to adopt them.

Creating an app, as an example, has never been easier and is just as achievable by a high school graduate as physical labor but we aren't preparing students for that.

The doom and gloom folks are looking at both short term and what could happen we let the tail wag the dog. Not unreasonable but I have to think at some point we get our feces co-located and start moving forward in the 21st century.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #37 on: December 05, 2016, 10:02:01 AM »
In the community I live/work in, there is an absence of urgent care centers in the poor neighborhoods and a glut of them around the edges of the area.    It is actually a shorter trip to the ER.    And people with experience in the system know that if they go by ambulance vs walking in to the ER that they will be seen much sooner.     Last week, my wife had an asthmatic episode, I took her to an urgent care center, and she was treated and on her way home in 3 hours.   But not everyone has the access or understands that as an option.

Part of that is the bad funding mechanism for healthcare and how we haphazardly "force" healthcare providers to locate within poor areas. The government forces healthcare providers to locate in poor areas, but the providers have the choice of what they deliver there, so they focus on the lowest cost(to them) of services and what generates the highest reimbursement rate from Medicare(to them). This usually means ERs as urgent cares have much lower reimbursement rates from Medicare as compared to ERs.

If you look at providers in poor, urban areas...they are all loss leaders and are heavily subsidized by the wealthier suburban areas. Not saying that shouldn't happen but because the funding mechanisms are totally mis-aligned with the outcomes society should achieve with regard to healthcare, we get a bastardized system that makes everything less efficient and more expensive.

"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

tower912

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #38 on: December 05, 2016, 10:42:29 AM »
My community has zero urgent care centers in the poor neighborhoods.    So clearly, they are not being forced.   I agree with it being a bastardized system. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #39 on: December 05, 2016, 11:29:36 AM »
My community has zero urgent care centers in the poor neighborhoods.    So clearly, they are not being forced.   I agree with it being a bastardized system.

Thats my point, ERs are cheaper than Urgent Care in poor areas from a provider prospective. Healthcare providers are forced to have "a footprint" in poor areas to provide basic medical coverage.....so they choose ERs because it's cheaper in total for them than urgent cares would be.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

forgetful

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #40 on: December 05, 2016, 12:44:43 PM »
I think increased international trade has definitely created more jobs. 
Companies who outsource either were too lazy to initiate cost saving technology innovate and automate and utilize lean manufacturing techniques or their industry simply became a commodity run-of-the mill item.

I don't have the study available right now.  But it has been looked at in detail.  NAFTA did create more jobs (and yes not necessarily of the same type that were leaving).  The normalization of trade with China though led to a significant net loss of jobs.  At least that was what the study concluded.

Moving forward these jobs will be automated.  Some manufacturing will likely move back to the US in automated plants, but the problem is; there still won't be jobs.  We will require a massive change in social and economic structure.  My view on how that will proceed is bleak.

brandx

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #41 on: December 05, 2016, 05:09:43 PM »

Creativity and innovation has never been closer to the "average" human's reach than it is right now. The problem is we aren't positioning society to take advantage of that capability. We are delivering 1980s education for a 21st century environment. As an example, there is zero reason that an 8th grade inner city kid couldn't be inventing things and producing some innovative tool or toy or whatever through 3D printing and coding. Technology has made earlier adoption pretty easy but the mass population doesn't know about them or how to adopt them.


Great point. My daughter is a teacher and she stays late 3 days a week to provide an environment after school for kids who want to write (her passion). She thought it would just be a couple kids who asked about being able to do this, but was shocked how many kids ended up wanting to join.

This is a skill necessary to get ahead in life - not to mention the creativity involved - but there isn't time in the curriculum to teach it during the school day.

Computer programming should be offered to any kid that wants it - starting at a young age. What a way to get young minds asking questions that will matter later in life.

ATL MU Warrior

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #42 on: December 05, 2016, 07:16:54 PM »
Thats my point, ERs are cheaper than Urgent Care in poor areas from a provider prospective. Healthcare providers are forced to have "a footprint" in poor areas to provide basic medical coverage.....so they choose ERs because it's cheaper in total for them than urgent cares would be.
Is there such a thing as a stand alone ER?  If not, then it doesn't seem as simple as you are trying to make it. 

MU82

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #43 on: December 05, 2016, 09:17:04 PM »
I'm not sure why anybody is fretting about any of this or even discussing it.

President Trump is going to fix everything. Automation will end, all jobs currently overseas will come back, every last illegal immigrant will be sent packing and high-paying manufacturing jobs will return for all the white, uneducated men who want them.

America will be made great again!
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mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #44 on: December 05, 2016, 11:10:34 PM »
Is there such a thing as a stand alone ER?  If not, then it doesn't seem as simple as you are trying to make it.

I'm short handing, when I say ER I mean an ER facility with at least a 20 bed hospital component. There are basic services that are required and an ER/small hospital is the most economical way to do it
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mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #45 on: December 05, 2016, 11:11:57 PM »
Great point. My daughter is a teacher and she stays late 3 days a week to provide an environment after school for kids who want to write (her passion). She thought it would just be a couple kids who asked about being able to do this, but was shocked how many kids ended up wanting to join.

This is a skill necessary to get ahead in life - not to mention the creativity involved - but there isn't time in the curriculum to teach it during the school day.

Computer programming should be offered to any kid that wants it - starting at a young age. What a way to get young minds asking questions that will matter later in life.

And this is one of the reasons you will see the wealth gap increase...they people who most need an educational leg up to find a way to generate wealth are being excluded from it
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

jesmu84

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #46 on: December 05, 2016, 11:18:40 PM »
I'm short handing, when I say ER I mean an ER facility with at least a 20 bed hospital component. There are basic services that are required and an ER/small hospital is the most economical way to do it

What? ER docs are not trained as, and shouldn't be acting in a capacity as, a primary care physician.

vogue65

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #47 on: December 06, 2016, 05:35:28 AM »
I don't have the study available right now.  But it has been looked at in detail.  NAFTA did create more jobs (and yes not necessarily of the same type that were leaving).  The normalization of trade with China though led to a significant net loss of jobs.  At least that was what the study concluded.

Moving forward these jobs will be automated.  Some manufacturing will likely move back to the US in automated plants, but the problem is; there still won't be jobs.  We will require a massive change in social and economic structure.  My view on how that will proceed is bleak.

You are very correct, the horse left the barn a long time ago, 40 years ago.

The plan by the multinationals, led by Boeing, has been to level wages worldwide, eliminate unions worldwide, and stimulate worldwide movement of people, ideas, money, resources,  and government structures  (politics).

Unintended consequence has been the spread of disease and terrorism.

So here we are in 2016 having to deal with the mess, bleak is an understatement.

What difference does it make if worldwide unemployment has been caused by technology or emigration?

The result is the same, an unstable world with lots of planes in the air. 

Just wait and see what happens when technology puts a few million truckdrivers out of work and smog closes down hundreds of cities as we know them.  Better to focus on college basketball than to think about these things.


mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #48 on: December 06, 2016, 08:49:03 AM »
What? ER docs are not trained as, and shouldn't be acting in a capacity as, a primary care physician.

Agreed, but but current monitization structure of healthcare essentially promotes ER docs to become primary care physicians and/or for people to wait until an issue escalates to actual emergent care status within poor communities.

Again, I'm not saying this is how it should be, I'm just point out this is how we've incentivized healthcare providers to structure their care for the poor, especially with the way Medicare works.
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jesmu84

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #49 on: December 06, 2016, 11:46:45 AM »
Agreed, but but current monitization structure of healthcare essentially promotes ER docs to become primary care physicians and/or for people to wait until an issue escalates to actual emergent care status within poor communities.

Again, I'm not saying this is how it should be, I'm just point out this is how we've incentivized healthcare providers to structure their care for the poor, especially with the way Medicare works.

I guess I can see where you're coming from. There's not a lot of money to be made by a provider for working with the poor population in primary care.

What I was saying earlier is that, even though there are few of them, there are providers who work in urgent cares/clinics/etc that work with the poor population in poor areas. People, mostly, walk into the ER out of convenience or laziness. There are avenues for primary care in poor areas. However, most choose not to seek them out.