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Author Topic: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"  (Read 8298 times)

jesmu84

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« Last Edit: December 02, 2016, 08:57:07 PM by jesmu84 »

brandx

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2016, 12:49:07 AM »
So, Hawking and Kaczinsky had a meeting of the minds?

Seriously, though, as someone who worked in the field, I always felt conflicted because I felt that technology would eventually lead to the breakdown of civil society.

I have seen nothing over the last few years to make me feel any different. The rise of unsocial media has only accelerated the process. We see an example of it here as we are unable to have a simple Politics Board.

keefe

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2016, 12:58:52 AM »
People decry petroleum but with the advent of petro-chemicals mankind's life expectancy went for under 30 years in 1900 to greater than 70 today.

Technology frees humans to continue to push the outer edge of the envelope. My biggest single regret is that I won't be here to witness the advances that will happen in this century that will dwarf everything done in the totality of the heretofore human experience.

We are working on some really cool energy technologies that, fifty years from now, will look utterly primitive. Or at least that is my fervent hope.


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brandx

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2016, 01:17:31 AM »
People decry petroleum but with the advent of petro-chemicals mankind's life expectancy went for under 30 years in 1900 to greater than 70 today.

Technology frees humans to continue to push the outer edge of the envelope. My biggest single regret is that I won't be here to witness the advances that will happen in this century that will dwarf everything done in the totality of the heretofore human experience.

We are working on some really cool energy technologies that, fifty years from now, will look utterly primitive. Or at least that is my fervent hope.

Keefe, you've given us the other side of the coin. Spectacular advances will continue to produce great results.

They will also, I am afraid, cause unimaginable heartbreak in society. You, obviously have a much greater faith in the goodness of mankind and how we will treat our fellow man than do I.

A perfect example is healthcare. Apparently, the majority or near majority of people in this country think that something as basic to human decency as anything I can think of should be rationed out and available only for certain segments of society.

GGGG

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2016, 06:24:46 AM »
Welp. Post#4 and its political. Some people...

brandx

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2016, 08:34:33 AM »
Welp. Post#4 and its political. Some people...

I guess we have a basic philosophical difference.

I believe access to healthcare is a moral issue - not a political one.

GGGG

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #6 on: December 03, 2016, 10:12:51 AM »
If you can't figure out that after the past 8 years that health care is a political issue, I don't know what to say.

brandx

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2016, 11:19:57 AM »
If you can't figure out that after the past 8 years that health care is a political issue, I don't know what to say.

I understand that.

The difference between us is that I am not bound by what politicians say. I do not have to justify my beliefs every time one of these gasbags pontificates on an issue.

Another example would be conservation of our planet. Clean air and water used to be an issue for one side. I supported it then and I support it now. I do not change my views because politicians change theirs.

I'm guessing that you don't either, but your argument seems to indicate that. But, I may just be reading it wrong.

WellsstreetWanderer

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #8 on: December 03, 2016, 01:35:09 PM »
Clean air and water is EVERYONE's concern , not one side's. We All need both to survive. To declare it the sole concern of one side or the other weakens your statement

I have been fortunate to  have spent decades , in a modest way, working on and with new medical technologies and now have the time to gaze back at how the crude procedures of yesteryear have become routine and safe because of technology. I share Keefe's excitement of what the future will bring for mankind and our lovely little planet.

forgetful

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2016, 01:43:41 PM »
People decry petroleum but with the advent of petro-chemicals mankind's life expectancy went for under 30 years in 1900 to greater than 70 today.

Technology frees humans to continue to push the outer edge of the envelope. My biggest single regret is that I won't be here to witness the advances that will happen in this century that will dwarf everything done in the totality of the heretofore human experience.

We are working on some really cool energy technologies that, fifty years from now, will look utterly primitive. Or at least that is my fervent hope.

Keefe, you miss the point largely.  Yes, Petrochemicals were necessary to allow much of what we call organic chemistry and the pharmaceutical industry.  Yes, we needed petrochemicals to advance productivity and improve crop yields.  These were needed for the lifespan increases we have observed (largely from organic/chemistry pharmaceutical industry...crop yields just allowed more rapid population growth). 

But, they have caused substantial harm, to the point that kids born today have a lower life expectancy then their parents.  Why,... too much of a good thing.  We do not need more energy, we do not need more petrochemicals, most of these increases now are going to things detrimental to mankind.  Everything in moderation. 

Problem is people want these things because they think they are making people happier. 

I'm a skeptic when it comes to new energy products, because typically when you break things down they are just as bad for the world. 

As for jobs being lost to technology.  Absolutely, one can legitimately argue that (at least for NAFTA, not for China), increased trade has created more jobs.  Most jobs that are gone or leaving can be, or will be automated in the next 5-10 years.  We need to start looking at sociological solutions to what will become a growing economic problem.  Large segments of the population that will be unemployed.

My personal fear is that we will see a rise of anti-intellectualism.  As a growing segment of the population becomes marginalized we historically see a rise of religion as people look for an outlet to justify their existence.  They also look for someone to blame.  Most religions imbed a certain "fear of knowledge" and of "knowledge as the downfall to mankind".  With a rise in religion, there will be attacks on technology and science, and a willingness for these marginalized individuals to accept near-slave like labor for daily sustenance. We may see a movement back towards the low points of the industrial era; industrial-feudalism.

The alternative was a transition to a society where most did not work, but all benefited from automation.  This was predicted in the 50's/60's to have happened by now.  We haven't gotten there, not because of the lack of technology, but rather the lack of a desire to transition to essentially a class-less society. 

Not sure where we are going, or how we deal with our impending economic transition, but I am not optimistic. 

keefe

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2016, 02:42:30 PM »
Keefe, you miss the point largely.  Yes, Petrochemicals were necessary to allow much of what we call organic chemistry and the pharmaceutical industry.  Yes, we needed petrochemicals to advance productivity and improve crop yields.  These were needed for the lifespan increases we have observed (largely from organic/chemistry pharmaceutical industry...crop yields just allowed more rapid population growth). 

But, they have caused substantial harm, to the point that kids born today have a lower life expectancy then their parents.  Why,... too much of a good thing.  We do not need more energy, we do not need more petrochemicals, most of these increases now are going to things detrimental to mankind.  Everything in moderation. 

Problem is people want these things because they think they are making people happier. 

I'm a skeptic when it comes to new energy products, because typically when you break things down they are just as bad for the world. 

As for jobs being lost to technology.  Absolutely, one can legitimately argue that (at least for NAFTA, not for China), increased trade has created more jobs.  Most jobs that are gone or leaving can be, or will be automated in the next 5-10 years.  We need to start looking at sociological solutions to what will become a growing economic problem.  Large segments of the population that will be unemployed.

My personal fear is that we will see a rise of anti-intellectualism.  As a growing segment of the population becomes marginalized we historically see a rise of religion as people look for an outlet to justify their existence.  They also look for someone to blame.  Most religions imbed a certain "fear of knowledge" and of "knowledge as the downfall to mankind".  With a rise in religion, there will be attacks on technology and science, and a willingness for these marginalized individuals to accept near-slave like labor for daily sustenance. We may see a movement back towards the low points of the industrial era; industrial-feudalism.

The alternative was a transition to a society where most did not work, but all benefited from automation.  This was predicted in the 50's/60's to have happened by now.  We haven't gotten there, not because of the lack of technology, but rather the lack of a desire to transition to essentially a class-less society. 

Not sure where we are going, or how we deal with our impending economic transition, but I am not optimistic.

We are deploying a hydrogen generating reforming technology in three waste to energy plants in California in 2017 which will eliminate landfilling while reducing harmful emissions by up to 98%.  We are also working on a graphene energy storage system that will facilitate off-grid clean/sustainable power generation.

The point of innovation is to transcend barriers that have inhibited productivity and prevented delivery of compelling economic, social, or environmental benefits. Rather than eliminating jobs I would argue that breakthrough technologies create value which in turn generate wealth through a variety of economic channels, not the least of which is job creation.

Every day I bike (or drive on days like today) to the MSFT campus. 20 years ago this was rural farmland. Now, 80,000 representing every race, color, creed, and religion show up to bring their skills to high tech.

Technology creates new paradigms. As the tectonic plates shift it is incumbent on individuals, in partnership with society, to identify the requisite skills and work to acquire them.

What amazes me is how diverse is the MSFT ecosystem. There are people from all over the world employed in engineering disciplines that span the entirety of social and economic activity. Bill Gates once told Congress that he would love to restrict hiring to just US citizens but American society was unable to meet the needs of a global tech enterprise. So Redmond and Bellevue, like San Jose, Cupertino, Palo Alto, et al is a mini UN representing the best in technical talent.

Politicians speak of job loss - but often times professional skills, like buggy whips and Pullman sleeper cars, are no longer commercially viable.   


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forgetful

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2016, 02:49:14 PM »
We are deploying a hydrogen generating reforming technology in three waste to energy plants in California in 2017 which will eliminate landfilling while reducing harmful emissions by up to 98%.  We are also working on a graphene energy storage system that will facilitate off-grid clean/sustrightble power generation.

The point of innovation is to transcend barriers that have inhibited productivity and prevented delivery of compelling economic, social, or environmental benefits. Rather than eliminating jobs I would argue that breakthrough technologies create value which in turn generate wealth through a variety of economic channels, not the least of which is job creation.

Every day I bike (or drive on days like today) to the MSFT campus. 20 years ago this was rural farmland. Now, 80,000 representing every race, color, creed, and religion show up to bring their skills to high tech.

Technology creates new paradigms. As the tectonic plates shift it is incumbent on individuals, in partnership with society, to identify the requisite skills and work to acquire them.

What amazes me is how diverse is the MSFT ecosystem. There are people from all over the world employed in engineering disciplines that span the entirety of social and economic activity. Bill Gates once told Congress that he would love to restrict hiring to just US citizens but American society was unable to meet the needs of a global tech enterprise. So Redmond and Bellevue, like San Jose, Cupertino, Palo Alto, et al is a mini UN representing the best in technical talent.

Politicians speak of job loss - but often times professional skills, like buggy whips and Pullman sleeper cars, are no longer commercially viable.   

I hope your technology works, I really do.  I just have been duped too many times by promises of grand new technology in this sector that when you break things down are not actually beneficial.  That doesn't mean it can't be successful, just I've developed a health skepticism of this market until I see every aspect of the science/engineering. 

The rest is philosophical disagreement.  I don't think there can be a right or wrong in regards to the effects of technology (beyond a certain critical point) on society.  My personal philosophical stance is that we are moving in a trajectory that will cause social upheaval and long lasting political change...and not in a good way.  Largely based on the history of dynamics between science/religion and division of wealth.  I hope your view is correct.

manny31

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2016, 07:21:41 PM »
I think often we, as a society, don't ask the right question. It doesn't matter if it is trade or technology I think most people understand and accept why we lose jobs. What I think needs to get better is how we allow the benefits of specialization, especially as it pertains to manufacturing jobs going abroad, to be distributed. Owners and consumers see benefits but it seems workers  are largely SOL. How about using some of those benefits to retrain workers? I don't want the government to be in the business of redistribution of resources more than they already are but I see no other way. To arrive at equitable distribution would require an honest and thoughtful conversation. It would seem a thoughtful conversation is difficult to have these days, I think that is our fault that we let the tenor of conversation be determined by the fringe of either side.

4everwarriors

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2016, 07:48:34 PM »
Healthcare and its delivery is a huge business and its attracts some of da best and brightest minds dis Earth has ta offer. Dat comes wit a steep price. Wee can't all just sit in da sandbox, holdin' hands, and singin' kumbaya. Someone's gotta pay da freight and those who wander inta an emergency room wit a hangover or ingrown pubby aren't helpin' da situation any, ai na?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

Tugg Speedman

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2016, 08:38:10 PM »
Keefe, you've given us the other side of the coin. Spectacular advances will continue to produce great results.

They will also, I am afraid, cause unimaginable heartbreak in society. You, obviously have a much greater faith in the goodness of mankind and how we will treat our fellow man than do I.

A perfect example is healthcare. Apparently, the majority or near majority of people in this country think that something as basic to human decency as anything I can think of should be rationed out and available only for certain segments of society.

My very good and very wise friend brandx gets it exactly right.

Whenever we have moved to a "age" ... the agricultural age or the industrial age, first came upheaval and discord and then came the benefits.  The upheaval is because the new age is not about a new way of farming or making things, but a fundamental change in society.  That is disruptive and the losers in that change push-back.

The emerging information age will be no different.  It is more than buying stuff online.  It is a change in how we live our life.  Every part of our life is changing and that is scary for many. 

I believe the information age means a move back to urbanization.  The suburbs, exurbs, and rural parts of the country, and the lifestyle that brings, is the big loser.

See Europe.  The rich live in the densely urban areas and the poor live in ghettos in what we call the suburbs.  I think our country is going that way too, in our case because of the information age is causing us to become more urban.  The suburbs to rural areas are pushing back, which is why Trump won 83% of the land mass (suburbs, exurbs, rural) of the US while Hillary won the popular vote covering just 17% of the land mass.

I fear in a few years we will look back wistfully at the Trump administration and long for that period of stability.

---------------------------------

This is so much more than new technologies, we are not even scratching the surface.  Consider

* the commerce department has a new category called "factory-less manufacturing."  Think 3-D printing.   Some big thinkers in Silicon Valley like Peter Diamondis think the factory is going away.  I think he is correct.  The FACTORY is going to be like a family farmer ... extinct.

* Speaking of 3-D printing, the Chinese 3-D printed a five story apartment building in less than 1 week.  They built a 51 story office tower in 19 days.  Imagine a world where houses go up in less than a day, office towers in a week and 90% of construction jobs are gone. 

* Back to Diamondis, he is a Harvard MD and has an engineering degree from MIT.  He was in the space program before he left to go to silicon valley and became a big thinking pioneer.  He thinks his 4 year old daughter will never have a driver's license (driver-less cars), most of the medical schools will close as surgeons will be largely extinct in 30 years (replaced by robotic surgery centers) and most Internists will be replaced by an app on your watch.  The medical industry is the main focus for disruption in silicon valley and when they are done, we will live to 120 and no one will have any jobs in this sector.

While all the above is exciting, society might have to go through a civil war before we get there. 

Want an example of the civil war, watch the future post that dispute the bullet points above.  They are from people that will be totally displaced by those technologies and will fight it in every way (and possibly even violently).
« Last Edit: December 04, 2016, 03:01:15 AM by Jesse Livermore »

keefe

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #15 on: December 03, 2016, 09:33:01 PM »
ingrown pubby

Doc

Is that anything like a particularly severe case of FUPA?


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GGGG

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2016, 08:30:05 AM »

This is so much more than new technologies, we are not even scratching the surface.  Consider

* the commerce department has a new category called "factory-less manufacturing."  Think 3-D printing.   Some big thinkers in Silicon Valley like Peter Diamondis think the factory is going away.  I think he is correct.  The FACTORY is going to be like a family farmer ... extinct.

The family farm is hardly extinct.  The vast majority of farms are family farms with a single operator. 

https://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/Online_Resources/Highlights/Farm_Demographics/

And factories will still be around too.  They aren't going away anytime soon.


* Back to Diamondis, he is a Harvard MD and has an engineering degree from MIT.  He was in the space program before he left to go to silicon valley and became a big thinking pioneer.  He thinks his 4 year old daughter will never have a driver's license (driver-less cars), most of the medical schools will close as surgeons will be largely extinct in 30 years (replaced by robotic surgery centers) and most Internists will be replaced by an app on your watch.  The medical industry is the main focus for disruption in silicon valley and when they are done, we will live to 120 and no one will have any jobs in this sector.

I appreciate thinkers like this because they do get people to change their horizons as to what is possible.  However the idea that people won't need drivers licenses due to driverless cars in 15-20 years, and we won't have surgeons in 30 years is foolish.  Change happens, and oftentimes it changes very fast, but FUNDAMENTAL change doesn't occur that quickly.

Like the farming issue above, change is coming and it is inevitable.  However the pace of change is nowhere where you think it is.

warriorchick

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #17 on: December 04, 2016, 09:35:40 AM »


I believe the information age means a move back to urbanization.  The suburbs, exurbs, and rural parts of the country, and the lifestyle that brings, is the big loser.



Exactly why do you think this would be the case?  It seems to be that if anything, the information age would eliminate the need for people to live close to one another.
Have some patience, FFS.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #18 on: December 04, 2016, 10:02:02 AM »
The family farm is hardly extinct.  The vast majority of farms are family farms with a single operator. 

https://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/Online_Resources/Highlights/Farm_Demographics/

And factories will still be around too.  They aren't going away anytime soon.


I appreciate thinkers like this because they do get people to change their horizons as to what is possible.  However the idea that people won't need drivers licenses due to driverless cars in 15-20 years, and we won't have surgeons in 30 years is foolish.  Change happens, and oftentimes it changes very fast, but FUNDAMENTAL change doesn't occur that quickly.

Like the farming issue above, change is coming and it is inevitable.  However the pace of change is nowhere where you think it is.

I think this is a great point.  The trend toward craft beers, small wineries, distilleries and local,organic foods is a great example of this transition away from processed and mass produced into a hybrid. Even Amazon, with its Fulfillment by Amazon is built around the combination of local and craftsmanship with the ability of mass distribution.  Technology makes "mass customization" profitable via automization.

The Great Generation brought assembly line manufacturing.

The Baby Boomers brought in the transition from a manufacturing economy to global service economy led by the Information Age.

The Millenials are creating the craft movement brought in by automization.  A completely automated craft brewery or an Amazon distribution center can enable costs being put into craftsmanship and differentiation. 

Tugg Speedman

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #19 on: December 04, 2016, 02:55:32 PM »
Diamondis is not arguing the change occurs because of tastes or preferences.  It changes because of costs.

When the world is full of Driverless cars, he estimates that it $300/$400 year to insure a driverless car and $3000 to $4000 to insure a human driver car.  Why, because when you get in an accident with a driverless car, they won't even investigate, they will just send you the bill (online that afternoon).

Similarly, Robotic surgery centers will cost a 1/10 per surgery and work 24/7 without mistake and a far far lower malpractice cost.  Eventually people will grow scared of human surgeons as they will be viewed as expensive butchers.  (they will also be mobile and even aircraft outfitted with them that can be flown into disaster zones, battle zones and/or third world countries.

Again the point is technology is not gee-whiz cool like craft beers.  It is not just making it easy to buy stuff online.  It will fundamentally change the human way of life FOR EVERYONE.  And a lot of people will not like it and they will push-back.

For instance, I expect my job will not exist in 15 years, I think you should too.  I'm constantly "evolving" my job so what i do in 15 years will bear nothing like what I do now.  A surgeon cannot evolve his job like that, they will be replaced (he can evolve his tools, and it is the tools, robotic surgeons, that will replace him).  A driver cannot evolve his job like that, they will be eliminated too.

GGGG

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #20 on: December 04, 2016, 04:04:30 PM »
I agree it changes with cost.  It just doesn't change as fast as Diamondis is suggesting.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2016, 06:14:14 PM »
I agree it changes with cost.  It just doesn't change as fast as Diamondis is suggesting.

Does this change your view of the timeline?

December 3, 2016
The Financial Times
Apple reveals plans for self-driving car
Letter to regulator calls for sharing of safety data to speed up development

https://www.ft.com/content/5c643f94-b983-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080?emailid=55ccb875090bff0300e78b63&segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb

Apple has for the first time publicly acknowledged its plans to develop self-driving cars, with a letter that urges the US highways regulator to promote “fair competition” between newcomers to the automotive industry and traditional manufacturers.

In an unusually direct statement accompanying the letter, an Apple spokesman confirmed its work on autonomous systems that could be used to transform “the future of transportation”.

Apple’s letter touts the “significant societal benefits of automated vehicles”, which it described as a life-saving technology, potentially preventing millions of car crashes and thousands of fatalities each year.


And from a commentator on such things ...

https://mishtalk.com/2016/12/03/apple-officially-enters-self-driving-car-race-sends-letter-to-dot/

How Many Jobs Lost?

My statement that “millions of long haul truck driving jobs will vanish in the 2022-2024 time frame” is likely way off on the low side if one counts Uber, taxi, and chauffeur driven vehicles.

Take a look at Uber’s goal once again: “replace Uber’s more than 1 million human drivers with robot drivers—as quickly as possible.”

That’s just Uber. And those jobs will vanish. All of them. What about Lyft? Taxis?

GGGG

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #22 on: December 04, 2016, 07:07:32 PM »
That doesn't change my mind.

brandx

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #23 on: December 04, 2016, 07:54:52 PM »
Healthcare and its delivery is a huge business and its attracts some of da best and brightest minds dis Earth has ta offer. Dat comes wit a steep price. Wee can't all just sit in da sandbox, holdin' hands, and singin' kumbaya. Someone's gotta pay da freight and those who wander inta an emergency room wit a hangover or ingrown pubby aren't helpin' da situation any, ai na?

Couldn't you think of anything more ignorant than this? Healthcare is about  life and death - not an "ingrown pubby".

jesmu84

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #24 on: December 04, 2016, 08:13:46 PM »
Couldn't you think of anything more ignorant than this? Healthcare is about  life and death - not an "ingrown pubby".

To be fair, people who use ERs for the things he mentioned, any many other minor problems, create a big financial problem with the healthcare system.

keefe

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #25 on: December 04, 2016, 08:53:51 PM »
To be fair, people who use ERs for the things he mentioned, any many other minor problems, create a big financial problem with the healthcare system.

People use the ER because they don't have access to care.

Politicians have made the VA an issue but the reality is that the VA does superb work in the specialty it was designed for - the treatment and care of Wounded Warriors. I still go to the VA at least once a month and the quality of care has been exceptional. The problem is that the VA has become a social safety net for many vets who, while entitled to care, are not combat wounded and therefore have a very low priority. The VA was not set up for them and continues to lack the funding to take care of these guys who have fallen through the cracks of the mainstream private healthcare system.

Healthcare in this country is stunningly good in terms of the quality of care. Access, on the other hand, is deploringly bad.


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jesmu84

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #26 on: December 04, 2016, 09:43:00 PM »
People use the ER because they don't have access to care.

Politicians have made the VA an issue but the reality is that the VA does superb work in the specialty it was designed for - the treatment and care of Wounded Warriors. I still go to the VA at least once a month and the quality of care has been exceptional. The problem is that the VA has become a social safety net for many vets who, while entitled to care, are not combat wounded and therefore have a very low priority. The VA was not set up for them and continues to lack the funding to take care of these guys who have fallen through the cracks of the mainstream private healthcare system.

Healthcare in this country is stunningly good in terms of the quality of care. Access, on the other hand, is deploringly bad.

Eh....

There are a lot of people who walk through the doors of the ER who would be much better to go to an urgent care or find a family doc or even a clinic. The access is there, most people just don't want to find it. It's easier to go to a hospital/ER.

MU82

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #27 on: December 04, 2016, 10:36:52 PM »

For instance, I expect my job will not exist in 15 years, I think you should too. 

My jobs are coaching and refereeing youth basketball (though not in the same game), umpiring youth baseball and doing a little freelance writing. I expect all to exist in 15 years ... but will my desire to do any of them still exist when the alternative (lying around a beach in Hawaii) is so attractive? That is the question!
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Babybluejeans

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #28 on: December 04, 2016, 11:17:22 PM »
My jobs are coaching and refereeing youth basketball (though not in the same game), umpiring youth baseball and doing a little freelance writing. I expect all to exist in 15 years ... but will my desire to do any of them still exist when the alternative (lying around a beach in Hawaii) is so attractive? That is the question!

15 years?! Mad dog and those other dingbats are going to get us all killed before we have to worry about our jobs' obsolescence.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2016, 09:13:09 AM by Babybluejeans »

#UnleashSean

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #29 on: December 05, 2016, 01:08:44 AM »
We're in the middle between our old economy and a star trek one (where there's enough surplus of everything and people so what they want)
Were to far away from a surplus of everything but have enough that tons of people are useless in jobs. It's gunna get rougher before it finally turns around

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #30 on: December 05, 2016, 07:41:18 AM »
So, Hawking and Kaczinsky had a meeting of the minds?

Seriously, though, as someone who worked in the field, I always felt conflicted because I felt that technology would eventually lead to the breakdown of civil society.

I have seen nothing over the last few years to make me feel any different. The rise of unsocial media has only accelerated the process. We see an example of it here as we are unable to have a simple Politics Board.

Unsocial media?  Brandx you may like this recent article from The Atlantic.

How Social Media Got Weaponized—War in the Digital Age

http://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2016/10/the-atlantics-november-tech-issue-how-social-media-got-weaponizedwar-in-the-digital-age/503630/



MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #31 on: December 05, 2016, 07:48:09 AM »

As for jobs being lost to technology.  Absolutely, one can legitimately argue that (at least for NAFTA, not for China), increased trade has created more jobs.  Most jobs that are gone or leaving can be, or will be automated in the next 5-10 years.  We need to start looking at sociological solutions to what will become a growing economic problem.  Large segments of the population that will be unemployed.


I think increased international trade has definitely created more jobs. 
Companies who outsource either were too lazy to initiate cost saving technology innovate and automate and utilize lean manufacturing techniques or their industry simply became a commodity run-of-the mill item.

GGGG

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #32 on: December 05, 2016, 08:57:12 AM »
I think increased international trade has definitely created more jobs. 
Companies who outsource either were too lazy to initiate cost saving technology innovate and automate and utilize lean manufacturing techniques or their industry simply became a commodity run-of-the mill item.


The problem is that it doesn't create the same type of jobs.  Free trade is great for a society overall.  But labor isn't a fluid commodity so some segments of society don't benefit much from free trade.

MU82

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #33 on: December 05, 2016, 09:02:36 AM »
15 years?! Mad dog and those other dingbats are going to get us all killed before we have to worry about our jobs' obselence.

Good point. I'd better start having more fun now!
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muwarrior69

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #34 on: December 05, 2016, 09:32:01 AM »
Unsocial media?  Brandx you may like this recent article from The Atlantic.

How Social Media Got Weaponized—War in the Digital Age

http://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2016/10/the-atlantics-november-tech-issue-how-social-media-got-weaponizedwar-in-the-digital-age/503630/

I am trying to get some venture capital to start an unsocial media site to compete with Facebook. I'm calling it Buttbook.

tower912

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #35 on: December 05, 2016, 09:34:50 AM »
In the community I live/work in, there is an absence of urgent care centers in the poor neighborhoods and a glut of them around the edges of the area.    It is actually a shorter trip to the ER.    And people with experience in the system know that if they go by ambulance vs walking in to the ER that they will be seen much sooner.     Last week, my wife had an asthmatic episode, I took her to an urgent care center, and she was treated and on her way home in 3 hours.   But not everyone has the access or understands that as an option. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #36 on: December 05, 2016, 09:54:21 AM »
Automation is a thing that will not go away, and while it will be painful for some or a lot of people, it is ultimately a good thing. The amount of work available to humans is not changing, but what the work consists of. Just like someone doesn't necessarily need to understand the fundamental principals of calculus to be able to use calculus, you don't have to know how to code to be able to use automation to your advantage.

Creativity and innovation has never been closer to the "average" human's reach than it is right now. The problem is we aren't positioning society to take advantage of that capability. We are delivering 1980s education for a 21st century environment. As an example, there is zero reason that an 8th grade inner city kid couldn't be inventing things and producing some innovative tool or toy or whatever through 3D printing and coding. Technology has made earlier adoption pretty easy but the mass population doesn't know about them or how to adopt them.

Creating an app, as an example, has never been easier and is just as achievable by a high school graduate as physical labor but we aren't preparing students for that.

The doom and gloom folks are looking at both short term and what could happen we let the tail wag the dog. Not unreasonable but I have to think at some point we get our feces co-located and start moving forward in the 21st century.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #37 on: December 05, 2016, 10:02:01 AM »
In the community I live/work in, there is an absence of urgent care centers in the poor neighborhoods and a glut of them around the edges of the area.    It is actually a shorter trip to the ER.    And people with experience in the system know that if they go by ambulance vs walking in to the ER that they will be seen much sooner.     Last week, my wife had an asthmatic episode, I took her to an urgent care center, and she was treated and on her way home in 3 hours.   But not everyone has the access or understands that as an option.

Part of that is the bad funding mechanism for healthcare and how we haphazardly "force" healthcare providers to locate within poor areas. The government forces healthcare providers to locate in poor areas, but the providers have the choice of what they deliver there, so they focus on the lowest cost(to them) of services and what generates the highest reimbursement rate from Medicare(to them). This usually means ERs as urgent cares have much lower reimbursement rates from Medicare as compared to ERs.

If you look at providers in poor, urban areas...they are all loss leaders and are heavily subsidized by the wealthier suburban areas. Not saying that shouldn't happen but because the funding mechanisms are totally mis-aligned with the outcomes society should achieve with regard to healthcare, we get a bastardized system that makes everything less efficient and more expensive.

"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

tower912

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #38 on: December 05, 2016, 10:42:29 AM »
My community has zero urgent care centers in the poor neighborhoods.    So clearly, they are not being forced.   I agree with it being a bastardized system. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #39 on: December 05, 2016, 11:29:36 AM »
My community has zero urgent care centers in the poor neighborhoods.    So clearly, they are not being forced.   I agree with it being a bastardized system.

Thats my point, ERs are cheaper than Urgent Care in poor areas from a provider prospective. Healthcare providers are forced to have "a footprint" in poor areas to provide basic medical coverage.....so they choose ERs because it's cheaper in total for them than urgent cares would be.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

forgetful

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #40 on: December 05, 2016, 12:44:43 PM »
I think increased international trade has definitely created more jobs. 
Companies who outsource either were too lazy to initiate cost saving technology innovate and automate and utilize lean manufacturing techniques or their industry simply became a commodity run-of-the mill item.

I don't have the study available right now.  But it has been looked at in detail.  NAFTA did create more jobs (and yes not necessarily of the same type that were leaving).  The normalization of trade with China though led to a significant net loss of jobs.  At least that was what the study concluded.

Moving forward these jobs will be automated.  Some manufacturing will likely move back to the US in automated plants, but the problem is; there still won't be jobs.  We will require a massive change in social and economic structure.  My view on how that will proceed is bleak.

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #41 on: December 05, 2016, 05:09:43 PM »

Creativity and innovation has never been closer to the "average" human's reach than it is right now. The problem is we aren't positioning society to take advantage of that capability. We are delivering 1980s education for a 21st century environment. As an example, there is zero reason that an 8th grade inner city kid couldn't be inventing things and producing some innovative tool or toy or whatever through 3D printing and coding. Technology has made earlier adoption pretty easy but the mass population doesn't know about them or how to adopt them.


Great point. My daughter is a teacher and she stays late 3 days a week to provide an environment after school for kids who want to write (her passion). She thought it would just be a couple kids who asked about being able to do this, but was shocked how many kids ended up wanting to join.

This is a skill necessary to get ahead in life - not to mention the creativity involved - but there isn't time in the curriculum to teach it during the school day.

Computer programming should be offered to any kid that wants it - starting at a young age. What a way to get young minds asking questions that will matter later in life.

ATL MU Warrior

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #42 on: December 05, 2016, 07:16:54 PM »
Thats my point, ERs are cheaper than Urgent Care in poor areas from a provider prospective. Healthcare providers are forced to have "a footprint" in poor areas to provide basic medical coverage.....so they choose ERs because it's cheaper in total for them than urgent cares would be.
Is there such a thing as a stand alone ER?  If not, then it doesn't seem as simple as you are trying to make it. 

MU82

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #43 on: December 05, 2016, 09:17:04 PM »
I'm not sure why anybody is fretting about any of this or even discussing it.

President Trump is going to fix everything. Automation will end, all jobs currently overseas will come back, every last illegal immigrant will be sent packing and high-paying manufacturing jobs will return for all the white, uneducated men who want them.

America will be made great again!
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #44 on: December 05, 2016, 11:10:34 PM »
Is there such a thing as a stand alone ER?  If not, then it doesn't seem as simple as you are trying to make it.

I'm short handing, when I say ER I mean an ER facility with at least a 20 bed hospital component. There are basic services that are required and an ER/small hospital is the most economical way to do it
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mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #45 on: December 05, 2016, 11:11:57 PM »
Great point. My daughter is a teacher and she stays late 3 days a week to provide an environment after school for kids who want to write (her passion). She thought it would just be a couple kids who asked about being able to do this, but was shocked how many kids ended up wanting to join.

This is a skill necessary to get ahead in life - not to mention the creativity involved - but there isn't time in the curriculum to teach it during the school day.

Computer programming should be offered to any kid that wants it - starting at a young age. What a way to get young minds asking questions that will matter later in life.

And this is one of the reasons you will see the wealth gap increase...they people who most need an educational leg up to find a way to generate wealth are being excluded from it
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

jesmu84

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #46 on: December 05, 2016, 11:18:40 PM »
I'm short handing, when I say ER I mean an ER facility with at least a 20 bed hospital component. There are basic services that are required and an ER/small hospital is the most economical way to do it

What? ER docs are not trained as, and shouldn't be acting in a capacity as, a primary care physician.

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #47 on: December 06, 2016, 05:35:28 AM »
I don't have the study available right now.  But it has been looked at in detail.  NAFTA did create more jobs (and yes not necessarily of the same type that were leaving).  The normalization of trade with China though led to a significant net loss of jobs.  At least that was what the study concluded.

Moving forward these jobs will be automated.  Some manufacturing will likely move back to the US in automated plants, but the problem is; there still won't be jobs.  We will require a massive change in social and economic structure.  My view on how that will proceed is bleak.

You are very correct, the horse left the barn a long time ago, 40 years ago.

The plan by the multinationals, led by Boeing, has been to level wages worldwide, eliminate unions worldwide, and stimulate worldwide movement of people, ideas, money, resources,  and government structures  (politics).

Unintended consequence has been the spread of disease and terrorism.

So here we are in 2016 having to deal with the mess, bleak is an understatement.

What difference does it make if worldwide unemployment has been caused by technology or emigration?

The result is the same, an unstable world with lots of planes in the air. 

Just wait and see what happens when technology puts a few million truckdrivers out of work and smog closes down hundreds of cities as we know them.  Better to focus on college basketball than to think about these things.


mu03eng

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #48 on: December 06, 2016, 08:49:03 AM »
What? ER docs are not trained as, and shouldn't be acting in a capacity as, a primary care physician.

Agreed, but but current monitization structure of healthcare essentially promotes ER docs to become primary care physicians and/or for people to wait until an issue escalates to actual emergent care status within poor communities.

Again, I'm not saying this is how it should be, I'm just point out this is how we've incentivized healthcare providers to structure their care for the poor, especially with the way Medicare works.
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jesmu84

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #49 on: December 06, 2016, 11:46:45 AM »
Agreed, but but current monitization structure of healthcare essentially promotes ER docs to become primary care physicians and/or for people to wait until an issue escalates to actual emergent care status within poor communities.

Again, I'm not saying this is how it should be, I'm just point out this is how we've incentivized healthcare providers to structure their care for the poor, especially with the way Medicare works.

I guess I can see where you're coming from. There's not a lot of money to be made by a provider for working with the poor population in primary care.

What I was saying earlier is that, even though there are few of them, there are providers who work in urgent cares/clinics/etc that work with the poor population in poor areas. People, mostly, walk into the ER out of convenience or laziness. There are avenues for primary care in poor areas. However, most choose not to seek them out.

MU82

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Re: "Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade"
« Reply #50 on: December 06, 2016, 01:32:00 PM »
Now Main Street's whitewashed windows and vacant stores

Seems like there ain't nobody wants to come down here no more.

They're closing down the textile mill across the railroad tracks;

Foreman says these jobs are going, boys, and they ain't coming back ...

To your hometown.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

 

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