[Cracked Sidewalks] Value Add Rankings, Projected NCAA Bids and Impact Players Returning in December

[CrackedSidewalks]

Value Add Rankings, Projected NCAA Bids and Impact Players Returning in December

Value Add ranks UNC No. 1, while remaining more skeptical of the AP No. 1 Kentucky. A UNC-Nova (#3) rematch for the national title is possible, but the Value Add dark horse is Utah. The Utes would rank 16th based on their players' Value Add to date, but Value Add projects that big man transfer David Collette in the coming weeks makes them the fifth best team in the country.

On the downside, Virginia's 50.77 is actually No. 1, but that includes 1.9 from Memphis transfer Austin Nichols, who has been kicked off the team. After subtracting out his value UVa falls three spots to No. 4 at 48.87.

ValueAddBasketball.com calculates Marquette with just enough talent to sneak into the last NCAA tournament spot, giving the Big East six teams. That ranks behind only the ACC (12), Big 12 (8) and Big Ten (7), and with a better ratio than the Big Ten. Value Add gives the Pac 12 five teams, but for some reason is particularly unkind to the SEC while giving only Kentucky and Florida a bid. However, a half dozen SEC teams are in the top 66, so that number could grow. The A10, American Athletic and West Coast Conference all have three bids. The other 23 conferences only get one bid.

Marquette will face Fresno State while Value Add calculates they have the 189th best team in the country. The week after that game Karachi Edo will take final exams to try to become eligible at which point Value Add calculates his impact (+5.0 Value Add) moves them up 89 spots to make them the 100th best team. Last year he went 7 of 9 shooting to  keep close to Utah in the NCAA.

Here is the ranking of teams that either project to make the tournament, be in the last four out, or to have a player returning in the next few weeks (mid-season transfers or early season injuries) to give a significant Value Add boost in the second number - or in the case of UVa and UConn a big loss.

Rnk	Team	Con	Bid?	Value Add	Trans/Inj	Key Transfers/Injuries changing 2nd number
1	North Carolina	ACC	auto	49.98	49.98	We don't project return value for long-term injuries like Theo Pinson - the players listed below should be back within a couple of weeks.
2	Duke	ACC	bid	49.43	49.43
3	Villanova	BE	auto	48.87	48.87
4	Virginia	ACC	bid	50.77	48.87	Austin Nichols -1.9 Memphis transfer dismissed after strong opener.
5	Utah	P12	auto	40.51	48.51	David Collette +8.0 Value Add's 18th best freshman in 2015 before Utah St. tried for months to block his transfer to Utah, where ex-NBA center Larry Krystkowiak could make him another NBA center.
6	Gonzaga	WCC	auto	47.07	47.07
7	Kansas	B12	auto	46.70	46.70
8	Wichita St.	MVC	auto	46.60	46.60
9	Syracuse	ACC	bid	46.58	46.58
10	Kentucky	SEC	auto	46.57	46.57	AP No. 1
11	Wisconsin	B10	auto	45.28	45.28
12	Louisville	ACC	bid	43.05	43.05
13	Purdue	B10	bid	42.54	42.54
14	Indiana	B10	bid	42.07	42.07
15	Miami FL	ACC	bid	41.86	41.86
16	Clemson	ACC	bid	39.47	41.47	Elijah Thomas +2.0 former top 50 prospect transferred from Texas A&M to play in December.
17	Butler	BE	bid	41.37	41.37
18	Michigan	B10	bid	40.87	40.87
19	Saint Mary's	WCC	bid	40.71	40.71
20	Iowa St.	B12	bid	40.70	40.70
21	Arizona	P12	bid	40.19	40.19	AP No. 8
22	Florida	SEC	bid	40.02	40.02
23	BYU	WCC	bid	39.84	39.84
24	West Virginia	B12	bid	39.44	39.44
25	Xavier	BE	bid	39.20	39.20
26	Oklahoma	B12	bid	38.00	39.00	Dante Buford +1.0 coming off suspension after some action as a freshman.
27	Baylor	B12	bid	38.99	38.99
28	Cincinnati	Amer	auto	38.95	38.95
29	East Tennessee St.	SC	auto	38.81	38.81
30	VCU	A10	auto	38.78	38.78
31	UCLA	P12	bid	38.77	38.77
32	Seton Hall	BE	bid	38.34	38.34
33	Colorado	P12	bid	38.07	38.07
34	Ohio St.	B10	bid	37.99	37.99
35	Creighton	BE	bid	37.74	37.74
36	Texas Tech	B12	bid	37.71	37.71
37	Notre Dame	ACC	bid	37.66	37.66
38	Michigan St.	B10	bid	37.48	37.48
39	Rhode Island	A10	bid	37.34	37.34
40	Virginia Tech	ACC	bid	37.23	37.23
41	Kansas St.	B12	bid	36.91	36.91
42	Florida St.	ACC	bid	36.52	36.52
43	TCU	B12	bid	32.37	36.37	Alex Robinson +4.0 a number of double digit outings at Texas A&M before transfer, enough to take them from 67th to 43rd and make the tournament.
44	Princeton	Ivy	auto	36.31	36.31
45	Wake Forest	ACC	bid	36.08	36.08
46	Houston	Amer	bid	35.98	35.98
47	Dayton	A10	bid	35.79	35.79
48	Marquette	BE	bid	35.21	35.21	Yes the last bid, and no I did not fudge - just ran the numbers.
49	SMU	Amer	last4	35.10	35.10
50	Minnesota	B10	last4	34.97	34.97
51	North Carolina St.	ACC	last4	34.96	34.96
52	California	P12	last4	34.69	34.69
54	UNC Wilmington	CAA	auto	32.66	34.16	Names in italics below would make the tournament by winning their conference Ambrose Mosley +2.5 at UNCW for senior year after being leading 3-point shooter for 27-8 ODU team.
57	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	auto	26.33	33.83	Khalil Ahmad +7.0 conference freshman of the year missing semester for academics, Riley Dearring +1 hit a couple of shots for Wisconsin's tourney team two years ago.
60	St. Bonaventure	A10	gain	32.48	33.48	Nelson Kaputo +1.0 some action as freshman and needs to pass exams to return Dec 17.
70	Ohio	MAC	auto	32.09	32.09
72	San Diego St.	MWC	auto	31.36	31.36
78	Incarnate Word	Slnd	inelig	30.57	30.57	new D1 not eligible yet, but otherwise could make tournament at-large or as conf champ
80	North Dakota St.	Sum	auto	29.94	29.94
83	Valparaiso	Horz	auto	29.63	29.63
84	Charlotte	CUSA	auto	28.09	29.59	Austin Ajukwa +1.5 two seasons at Clemson and should contribute at Charlotte.
89	Georgia Tech	ACC	gain	27.85	29.05	Josh Heath +1.2 takes the court against Tulane Saturday after 4-game suspension.
91	Belmont	OVC	auto	28.84	28.84
100	Fresno St.	MWC	gain	23.21	28.21	Karachi Edo +5.0 capped 3 strong first years with 7 of 9 shooting to keep close to Utah in the NCAA, but must pass exams in mid-December.
103	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	auto	28.06	28.06
107	Missouri	SEC	gain	25.84	27.84	Jordan Barnett +2.0 returns to Missouri from Texas - former top 100 recruit.
110	Winthrop	BSth	auto	27.66	27.66
113	Vermont	AE	auto	27.35	27.35
116	UT Arlington	SB	auto	27.20	27.20
117	Siena	MAAC	auto	27.18	27.18
118	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	auto	27.10	27.10
126	Texas Southern	SWAC	auto	22.74	26.24	Tevon Saddler +3.5 led UNCG in scoring and assists before transfer.
128	Boston University	Pat	auto	26.16	26.16
158	New Mexico St.	WAC	auto	24.36	24.36
159	Montana	BSky	auto	24.36	24.36
167	Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	gain	23.64	24.04	Following teams have significant player changes to their current Value Add Fallou Ndoye +0.4 played in 30 games as a freshman at Mississippi St. then six more last year before transfer.
184	DePaul	BE	gain	22.42	23.42	Austin Grandstaff +0.2 hit some 3-pointers for Ohio State.
191	Western Kentucky	CUSA	gain	21.50	23.00	Jabari McGhee +1.5 hit 62% of his shots (23-37) at Tennessee.
192	Connecticut	Amer	lost	27.46	22.96	Terry Larrier -4.5 off to a great start but season ending knee injury crushing for Uconn.
199	Wagner	NEC	auto	22.46	22.46
224	Kent St.	MAC	gain	19.08	21.08	Taishaun Johnson +2.0 after averaging 12.5 points as a freshman at South Alabama, a nice addition.
235	Norfolk St.	MEAC	auto	20.34	20.34
236	Tennessee Tech	OVC	gain	19.80	20.30	Curtis Phillips +0.5 eight points a game at Campbell.
239	South Florida	Amer	gain	14.63	20.13	Jahmal McMurray +4.5 all-freshman team hopes to return from suspension, Isaiah Manderson 1.0 Texas Tech transfer 4.4 ppg as freshman.
257	Alabama St.	SWAC	gain	15.95	18.95	Demetrius Houston +3.0 returns home to Montgomery after showing promise his freshman year at Mississippi St.
263	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	gain	15.42	18.42	Justin Massey +3.0 solid player at Florida Atlantic as a freshman, then transferred to Brown for 9 games before coming back.
280	Pepperdine	WCC	gain	16.85	17.85	Kameron Edwards +1.0 after scoring 7 points/gm as a freshman he will return from a jaw injury.
294	Howard	MEAC	gain	13.15	17.15	James Daniel +4.0 quest for 2000 points resumes after early season ankle injury.

Source: Value Add Rankings, Projected NCAA Bids and Impact Players Returning in December

[Eye]

Unless I missed 'em, Oregon not in tourney in your rankings?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Nice, always like seeing analyses like this on the board

[Silkk the Shaka]

Unless I missed 'em, Oregon not in tourney in your rankings?

Probably because their embarrassing non-con loss to Georgetown is an auto-disqualifier in the model

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I have a hard time seeing Utah as top 5, even with Collette. I'm also having trouble seeing east Tennessee state as a top 30 team.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Rematch in Dayton with Dayton!

[Marcus92]

Interesting that Xavier's at #25. IIRC, most predictions had them in the Top 10.

[oldwarrior81]

the ACC getting 12 of 15 teams in the NCAA's would be impressive.

especially since there are 135 losses that will come from conference games. That would probably mean some 14-15 loss teams getting an at-large.

[MUBigDance]

Rematch in Dayton with Dayton!

I briefly scrolled thru a Dayton board (interested in kostas news)...and they don't like us very much. Its not like they only talk about Marquette but when I did see us mentioned it was negative and often in bad feelings over the Big East passing them over.

Are they an arch rival we never play now....would like to see a tourney matchup....play-in or 8-9...who knows.

[WarhawkWarrior]

I don't see the Big East getting 6 bids.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't see the Big East getting 6 bids.

Why? We're the top rated conference in RPI right now.

[Marcus92]

I don't see the Big East getting 6 bids.

The Big East got 6 bids for the 2015 NCAA tournament, based largely on being the second-strongest conference in the country. That year, KenPom rated every team (including 13-19 Marquette) in the Top 100.

It may not happen this season. But the Big East looks to be very good again.

[auburnmarquette]

Yes, definitely very early and unpredictable. In my manual choices on Breitbart that are roughly tied to the Value Add I put Utah No. 12 based on after Collette first suits up. Of course, happy to have Butler beat them tonight and Xavier also beat them before they get him back - then they can win all the rest once he arrives :-)

[oldwarrior81]

the ACC getting 12 of 15 teams in the NCAA's would be impressive.

especially since there are 135 losses that will come from conference games. That could possibly mean some 14-15 loss teams getting an at-large.

[GoldenDieners32]

I have a hard time seeing Utah as top 5, even with Collette. I'm also having trouble seeing east Tennessee state as a top 30 team.

They could be top 30 considering their league is not good

[brewcity77]

They could be top 30 considering their league is not good

That's thing likely to hurt them more likely than help. The rest of the year, they play Dayton and Tennessee once and Chattanooga twice. Sure, they'll likely rack up wins, but if they don't beat anyone of consequence, can they really be top-30 good?

[MU82]

Marquette will face Fresno State while Value Add calculates they have the 189th best team in the country. The week after that game Karachi Edo will take final exams to try to become eligible at which point Value Add calculates his impact (+5.0 Value Add) moves them up 89 spots to make them the 100th best team. Last year he went 7 of 9 shooting to  keep close to Utah in the NCAA.

That could be the best of both worlds for us. We get to play Fresno without Edo, but then hopefully he'll be eligible and he'll lift their RPI the rest of the season (and ours with it).

Unless that isn't how it works. I don't pretend to be an RPI or Value Add expert. I defer to those who are, so I like hearing that we are absolutely, positively guaranteed an NCAA berth this season! That is what this means, right?