Floors and Ceilings

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Contrary to what many people seem to believe, teams do not perform at the same level every game. If you graded teams on a numbered scale, they wouldn't be one given one score. They would be given two. One would be the level that they can achieve when they are playing their absolute best, the other when they are playing their absolute worst. Most nights, they will be somewhere between those two numbers.

This Marquette team has had a game where they were pretty close to what I assume is their ceiling in Vanderbilt. They have also had a game where they were pretty close to what I hope is their floor in Michigan. Howard and Pitt were closer to the middle. The team that played against Vandy is not only a tournament team but a high seeded one. The one that showed up to the Michigan game wouldn't make the NIT, not even close. The team that played against Pitt was an NIT team and the team against Howard was a bubblicious team.

We've got a long season ahead of us. I think we are capable of playing closer to our ceiling most nights and making the tournament. It is not wise nor enjoyable to assume that this team will play close to its floor the rest of the season.

[79Warrior]

What you see is what you get. The rest is wishful thinking.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What you see is what you get. The rest is wishful thinking.

Ok. I saw a high seeded NCAA tournament team against Vanderbilt. I also saw a team that wouldn't sniff the NITs against Michigan. Which one am I getting?

Fans who predict national championships after 1 dominating win and fans who declare the season over after 1 bad loss don't understand how college basketball works.

[manny31]

Vandy is not a very good team, Howard will be lucky to finish in the 200's as far as RPI is concerned. So non conference cupcakes and DePaul are who we have to look forward to, that depresses me. Sky is falling

[jesmu84]

Good stuff here TAMU

[79Warrior]

Ok. I saw a high seeded NCAA tournament team against Vanderbilt. I also saw a team that wouldn't sniff the NITs against Michigan. Which one am I getting?

Fans who predict national championships after 1 dominating win and fans who declare the season over after 1 bad loss don't understand how college basketball works.

i saw MU beat a Vandy team that will be bottom of the SEC. Not sure how that translates into a high NCAA seed. If Vandy is our best non conference win that I think you can throw your high seed out the window.

[MuMark]

I think he meant the way they played against Vandy not that beating them was going to get us a high seed.

People need to chill.....we are not going to be a high seed....hopefully we can fight into consideration for a berth and show progress from last season.

Michigan is obviously a very good team.....i would expect them to be ranked Monday. If we had pulled out a close win against Pitt instead of a close loss the mood would be completely different......our seniors didn't show up.....Pitts did.....we aren't going to beat many quality opponents with JJ and Luke playing poorly......not to mention Reinhardt.......

Time to move on.....lot of season left.

[79Warrior]

I think he meant the way they played against Vandy not that beating them was going to get us a high seed.

People need to chill.....we are not going to be a high seed....hopefully we can fight into consideration for a berth and show progress from last season.

Michigan is obviously a very good team.....i would expect them to be ranked Monday. If we had pulled out a close win against Pitt instead of a close loss the mood would be completely different......our seniors didn't show up.....Pitts did.....we aren't going to beat many quality opponents with JJ and Luke playing poorly......not to mention Reinhardt.......

Time to move on.....lot of season left.

i misunderstood his point. I stand corrected.

[fjm]

I think he meant the way they played against Vandy not that beating them was going to get us a high seed.

People need to chill.....we are not going to be a high seed....hopefully we can fight into consideration for a berth and show progress from last season.

Michigan is obviously a very good team.....i would expect them to be ranked Monday. If we had pulled out a close win against Pitt instead of a close loss the mood would be completely different......our seniors didn't show up.....Pitts did.....we aren't going to beat many quality opponents with JJ and Luke playing poorly......not to mention Reinhardt.......

Time to move on.....lot of season left.

Totally agree. This board would be OMG WE ARE DOIN REAL GOOD! If we had score 4 more points on Friday. A lot of the season left. Should we have won on Friday? I feel yes. But it was close. Gotta bounce back that's all.

We were never going to be a high seed. Give us a 8-11 seed. Let's just be bubblicious once February rolls around.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I have seen a soft poorly coached team that plays horse crap defense for 2+ seasons now.  Sure some games the degrees of softness, bad coaching n defensive weakness vary but they still are what they are.

[ATWizJr]

79 warrior is right. those thinking that this team will be ncaa tourney worthy are living in a fantasy world.  we don't have the horses or the size.  love mu bb but am a realist.

[jonny09]

ATWizJr.   You are exactly correct.  Sometimes the truth hurts. 

[MuMark]

ATWizJr.   You are exactly correct.  Sometimes the truth hurts.

Ok now that we all know the end result can we enjoy the rest of the season before organizing the mass suicide?

I prefer the cherry flavored Kool aid. Maybe a poll?

[Herman Cain]

Contrary to what many people seem to believe, teams do not perform at the same level every game. If you graded teams on a numbered scale, they wouldn't be one given one score. They would be given two. One would be the level that they can achieve when they are playing their absolute best, the other when they are playing their absolute worst. Most nights, they will be somewhere between those two numbers.

This Marquette team has had a game where they were pretty close to what I assume is their ceiling in Vanderbilt. They have also had a game where they were pretty close to what I hope is their floor in Michigan. Howard and Pitt were closer to the middle. The team that played against Vandy is not only a tournament team but a high seeded one. The one that showed up to the Michigan game wouldn't make the NIT, not even close. The team that played against Pitt was an NIT team and the team against Howard was a bubblicious team.

We've got a long season ahead of us. I think we are capable of playing closer to our ceiling most nights and making the tournament. It is not wise nor enjoyable to assume that this team will play close to its floor the rest of the season.

To use your analogy, lets assume we have a few really good games ,a few embarrassments  and the for the most part we play at a middle level. In that scenario, I am still at the place I was when we made the game by game predictions. That is we are going to have a hard time being escaping the bottom third of the Big East.

For us to play closer to our ceiling we are good to need all of our key players  having good games at the same time. When I look at each player individually ,almost every one has demonstrated some good things so far this year. I think it is up to the coaching staff to blend our talent into a consistently  performing team. I am simply not confident the coaching staff has ability to do that.

Lets see what  can be done about building our team cohesion back in the coming 3 cupcake games.  Then we have another test against Georgia on the road.

In the meantime I still we should find a 13th non conference game against a cupcake to build up our win total for optics sakes.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

79 warrior is right. those thinking that this team will be ncaa tourney worthy are living in a fantasy world.  we don't have the horses or the size.  love mu bb but am a realist.

Disagree. We are four games in. If we play like we did against Vandy most nights, we are dancing easy. If we play like we did against Michigan most nights we will  be nowhere near the NIT. I have no reason to believe that the vandy team will show up more than the Michigan team or vice versa. I am confident that most nights we will end up somewhere in the middle. Where in the middle is what remains to be seen.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

To use your analogy, lets assume we have a few really good games ,a few embarrassments  and the for the most part we play at a middle level. In that scenario, I am still at the place I was when we made the game by game predictions. That is we are going to have a hard time being escaping the bottom third of the Big East.

For us to play closer to our ceiling we are good to need all of our key players  having good games at the same time. When I look at each player individually ,almost every one has demonstrated some good things so far this year. I think it is up to the coaching staff to blend our talent into a consistently  performing team. I am simply not confident the coaching staff has ability to do that.

Lets see what  can be done about building our team cohesion back in the coming 3 cupcake games.  Then we have another test against Georgia on the road.

In the meantime I still we should find a 13th non conference game against a cupcake to build up our win total for optics sakes.

Totally fair. My opinion isn't that far off. I think our "middle" is currently an NIT bid. I'm hopeful well beat my prediction but need to see more consistency before my hopes become predictions

[4everwarriors]

Norm is wright. Wojo's teams aren't worth a chit on defense, ai na?

[Class71]

Disagree. We are four games in. If we play like we did against Vandy most nights, we are dancing easy. If we play like we did against Michigan most nights we will  be nowhere near the NIT. I have no reason to believe that the vandy team will show up more than the Michigan team or vice versa. I am confident that most nights we will end up somewhere in the middle. Where in the middle is what remains to be seen.

Well is the glass half full or half empty? Are you optimistic or pessimistic does no really matter. The physical capabilities of this team will not change. The only question is can a largely unproven coach shape this team into an NCAA tournament team this year?

Everyone has an opinion on the answer but no one knows the answer with certainty. That is why we watch and they play the season. It is also why everyone has a right to their opinion. Clearly no one knows the outcome of the season with certainty.

What we do know is the outcome of the last 4 games. Better to ask ourselves, is this what we expected at the beginning of season three from Wojo? If it is then you should be satisfied, if not then, like me, you are disappointed. How we feel about this season so far is personal and factual. What we expect in the future, by all of us, is  opinion based on our experience, our judgement and emotions.

Many on this board have considerable experience. Might be helpful for folks to discuss examples of previous teams success and failure rates similar to the current situation to help all of us assess the future for this team. I would find that more helpful and somewhat more objective.

[MarquetteDano]

79 warrior is right. those thinking that this team will be ncaa tourney worthy are living in a fantasy world.  we don't have the horses or the size.  love mu bb but am a realist.

I completely disagree on the horses.  Yes they are a shorter but no more so than the Lazar and the midgets team.  And this team has more depth and talent than that team.  That team got to the NCAA's.  Albeit,  they barely got there.

This team absolutely has the horses to get to the NIT and should be in the NCAA conversation.  If they don't end up there,  in my mind it is coaching.

[Galway Eagle]

I completely disagree on the horses.  Yes they are a shorter but no more so than the Lazar and the midgets team.  And this team has more depth and talent than that team.  That team got to the NCAA's.  Albeit,  they barely got there.

This team absolutely has the horses to get to the NIT and should be in the NCAA conversation.  If they don't end up there,  in my mind it is coaching.

Ah so there's going to be at least 4 nba players and another international olympian on this team?

[Lennys Tap]

I completely disagree on the horses.  Yes they are a shorter but no more so than the Lazar and the midgets team.  And this team has more depth and talent than that team.  That team got to the NCAA's.  Albeit,  they barely got there.

They "barely got there"? They were a 6 seed.

[MarquetteDano]

They "barely got there"? They were a 6 seed.

True. Remembering a lot of struggling that season at times but the Big East was so good then.

[MarquetteDano]

Ah so there's going to be at least 4 nba players and another international olympian on this team?

This team has more depth than that team without question. Hayward was playing center and Butler was not yet a star. I would take most of this teams guards over Cubillan and Acker.

That team played great as a team however. Yet to be determined for this team.

[Galway Eagle]

This team has more depth than that team without question. Hayward was playing center and Butler was not yet a star. I would take most of this teams guards over Cubillan and Acker.

That team played great as a team however. Yet to be determined for this team.

Butler averaged 1pt less that year than he did the following, averaged pretty much the same amount of steals, assists, blocks and rebounds. I think your memory of him is off. Point isn't depth, that team had none, point is we had real star talent on that team and four of those players ended up in the NBA.

[MuMark]

Hayward, Butler, Buycks and DJO.......that team shot over 40% from 3. Acker was an excellent defender on the perimeter, shot about 50% from 3 and almost never turned it over as a senior. Cooby made open 3s at a high level and guarded at a high level.

The current team may be deeper but doesn't have near the talent at the top. Both teams were short but that team was much quicker and more athletic.

When they needed a basket in a close game they could go to Lazar or Jimmy......this team? JJ? HC?