opening conference schedule strength

[bilsu]

I tried to come up with a method to compare the strenght of the first six games of the conference schedules.

I listed the top nine teams in the standings as of 12-31-07 and listed their first 6 conference games. I projected their records by using the following rules. Home team always wins. Top nine teams always wins against the bottom 6 teams. The resulting record indicates the opening strength of schedule and not necessarily the teams record after 6 games. The worse the record the tougher the schedule. Using this the toughest opening schedules in order are:

3-3 Marquette and Notre Dame
4-2 West Virginia and Uconn
5-1 Georgetown, Pittsburg, Villanova and Syracuse
6-0 Louisville

Louisville's schedule is definately the easiest. Their three road games are Rutgers, Seton Hall and South Florida.

Marquette plays at West Virginia, Louisville and Uconn. Those games under my parameters defined above are losses. However, I do believe MU will beat West Virginia and Uconn and have a very good chance of beating Louisville.

Break down of home games vs road games.
Pitt 2-4
MU 3-3
Vill  2-4
Georgtown 3-3
W. Virg. 3-3
Uconn 3-3
Notre Dame 3-3
Syracuse 4-2
Louisville 3-3

[denverMU]

I agree that MU has, probably, the toughest starting schedule, but if they make it through those first six games undefeated we could easily be 20-1 going into South Bend to beat up those Irish bums!

[wheresthecake?]

I agree that MU has, probably, the toughest starting schedule, but if they make it through those first six games undefeated we could easily be 20-1 going into South Bend to beat up those Irish bums!

Not to put the cart in front of the horse, but if we get to 20-1 we would probably be close to being the #1 ranked team in the nation going into South Bend after already beating them at home....that's a scary thought, but would be an awesome game.

[chapman]

Well, no one predicted us to lose the first two games in conference last year, both being very winnable.  Then, when some of us were thinking NIT, we go on to win the next 8.  I think the entire schedule is tough.  All six games look winnable, but I would be happy to go 4-2.  We've played one true road game this year, and going to WVU, Louisville, and Uconn will be tough.  If you think slumping Louisville could be a gimme, just remember the Rutgers loss two years ago and the DePaul loss last year.