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Author Topic: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?  (Read 5315 times)

Marcus92

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Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« on: September 25, 2016, 08:37:09 PM »
I've been looking for some kind of precedent for point guards who significantly reduce their turnover percentage after their freshman season.

Perhaps the best example is Demetrious Jackson of Notre Dame. In his sophomore season, Jackson cut his TO% during ACC conference play in half.

Marcus Paige is another pretty good case, cutting his TO% in conference play by over 40% in his second year. Yogi Ferrell of Indiana: a 30% reduction. Kris Dunn posted an abysmal TO% in his freshman year, but managed to improve after that (although he was still turnover-prone).

Is it realistic to expect Traci to do the same? If he doesn't improve, will Rowsey (with half the TO%) take over at point?
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 08:45:00 PM by Marcus92 »
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MuMark

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 08:40:18 PM »
Can he? Sure......will he?

Nobody knows.

I'm glad the season starts soon.......

Jay Bee

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 08:42:21 PM »
I've been looking for some kind of precedent for point guards who significantly reduce their turnover percentage after their freshman season.

Perhaps the best example is Demetrious Jackson of Notre Dame. In his sophomore season, Jackson cut his TO% during ACC conference play in half.

Marcus Paige is another pretty good case, cutting his TO% in conference play by over 40% in his second year. Yogi Ferrell of Indiana: a 30% reduction. Kris Dunn posted an abysmal TO% in his freshman year, but managed to improve after that after that (although he was still turnover-prone).

Is it realistic to expect Traci to do the same? If he doesn't improve, will Rowsey (with half the TO%) take over at point?

No. Traci's TO rates far exceeded the guys you mention. HOPE & PRAY for 22%, but that's gonna be tough. Projects to 24%

Marcus92

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 08:47:33 PM »
No. Traci's TO rates far exceeded the guys you mention. HOPE & PRAY for 22%, but that's gonna be tough. Projects to 24%

I'm curious, what's the projection based on?

And if Traci doesn't show significant improvement, do you think Rowsey is a better option at point?
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Jay Bee

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 08:51:51 PM »
I'm curious, what's the projection based on?

And if Traci doesn't show significant improvement, do you think Rowsey is a better option at point?

Projection is based on a proprietary model

Markus Howard is the truth

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2016, 08:59:31 PM »
Projection is based on a proprietary model

Markus Howard is the truth

And I project that Markus Howard won't see much time at the point guard position until after Traci graduates.

Marcus92

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2016, 08:59:50 PM »
Projection is based on a proprietary model

Markus Howard is the truth

Does that mean you think Markus is an option at point, either this year or for the future? I know he's got a great crossover and quick first step, but that's based on a few highlight videos.

Since we aren't expected to add another point guard in the Class of 2017, seems like Wojo is satisfied with who he has on the roster to run the offense.
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esotericmindguy

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2016, 09:06:31 PM »
He'll cut down on them because he won't see the floor nearly as much. Rowsey and Cheatham can handle the point and I'm guessing Howard will take some of his minutes.

HoopsterBC

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2016, 09:06:51 PM »
Carter will not have as many turnovers as last year for a couple of reasons,

1)  Being older, learning the college game, that alone should make him better

2)  Howard

3) Rowsey

If he played the same as last year, he could become the 12th man.   As Al stated,  Freshman become Sophomores, and I believe the biggest jump in there game
is the second year, of course, for Vader Blue,  JJJ, it was the 3rd year. 

Herman Cain

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2016, 11:11:21 PM »
Carter will not have as many turnovers as last year for a couple of reasons,

1)  Being older, learning the college game, that alone should make him better

2)  Howard

3) Rowsey

If he played the same as last year, he could become the 12th man.   As Al stated,  Freshman become Sophomores, and I believe the biggest jump in there game
is the second year, of course, for Vader Blue,  JJJ, it was the 3rd year.
Toward the end of the season Traci made improvement in his decision making. He was more a distributor and tried forcing things offensively much less. I think he will continue on a positive trendline upward each year. If he doesn't you are correct he will go to the end of the bench .
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brewcity77

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2016, 11:18:54 PM »
He'll cut down on them because he won't see the floor nearly as much. Rowsey and Cheatham can handle the point and I'm guessing Howard will take some of his minutes.

I'm pretty sure you don't understand how turnover rate works.

I remember looking at some stats last year and for point guards, it was often the junior year where guys significantly started cutting down on turnovers. If Traci gets to 24% as a sophomore, I'd be fine with that, especially if his assist rate and (especially) eFG% improved. Just like to see better efficiency from him in terms of ball handling.
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bilsu

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2016, 07:40:45 AM »
I think, if he is given the chance to start he will cut down on his turnovers. I believe and you can challenge this if you want that a majority of point guards do not start as freshmen. College basketball is a much more quicker game and most freshmen are not ready to effectively play this position. So when you look at how much point guards who start as freshmen cut down their turnover rates, you are generally looking at elite point guards who were capable of starting as freshmen. We had no point guards on the team so Haanif or Carter had to start even if they were not ready. Carter's development may of been slowed down by Wojo's experiment with starting Haanif at point. Haanif got to play point against a lot of the bunnies, which is the time a new point guard can get comfortable at his position. I also think turnovers can be effected by the experience of the players around him. Carter was starting at point with two other freshmen. It is important to know what your teammates are going to do and this comes with experience and playing with experienced players.


bilsu

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2016, 07:52:23 AM »
I looked at last year's MU stats. Of course this does not take into account the position played or number of minutes played, but these players had the most turnovers.
1. Haanif 88 freshmen
2. Henry 79 freshmen
3. Carter 77 freshmen
4. Wilson 67 sophomore
Conclusion youth = turnovers.

GGGG

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2016, 08:27:30 AM »
He'll cut down on them because he won't see the floor nearly as much. Rowsey and Cheatham can handle the point and I'm guessing Howard will take some of his minutes.

I doubt Cheatham will play much point this year. Unless injuries become an issue.

Jay Bee

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2016, 09:06:23 AM »
I looked at last year's MU stats. Of course this does not take into account the position played or number of minutes played, but these players had the most turnovers.
1. Haanif 88 freshmen
2. Henry 79 freshmen
3. Carter 77 freshmen
4. Wilson 67 sophomore
Conclusion youth = turnovers.

Haha... conclusion is relatively true but your analysis also doesn't take into account how the player plays / their role on the offense.

Henry & Duane's turnover rates were fine; Haanif's was bad and Carter's was horrendous

MU82

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2016, 09:18:05 AM »
And I project that Markus Howard won't see much time at the point guard position until after Traci graduates.

Uh-oh ...

Chitown vs Jay Bee ...

NOW IT'S ON!
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mu03eng

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2016, 09:46:51 AM »
And I project that Markus Howard won't see much time at the point guard position until after Traci graduates.

And I project you won't be in the projection business very long  ;D
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mu03eng

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2016, 09:49:37 AM »
He'll cut down on them because he won't see the floor nearly as much. Rowsey and Cheatham can handle the point and I'm guessing Howard will take some of his minutes.

Cheatham is at best the fourth option at PG this season, if he's getting a ton of minutes at the one, something has gone terribly wrong.

I want it known that Cheatham is my favorite player on the team this year, so I'm not throwing shade at him but PG will not be the best use of his talents. He'll be much better playing off the ball where he can shot or slash off of the PG initiation or kick out from Luke.
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mu03eng

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2016, 09:51:57 AM »
I think Traci and Rowsey will lock down the PG spot for the most part this season....Rowsey will move to the two next season with Traci and Howard getting all the PG minutes.

Traci has the ability(both physical and mental) to significantly reduce his TOs, the question is, has his experience caught up with his abilities.....that will determine how far he reduces his TO rate.
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bilsu

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2016, 10:57:04 AM »
Haha... conclusion is relatively true but your analysis also doesn't take into account how the player plays / their role on the offense.

Henry & Duane's turnover rates were fine; Haanif's was bad and Carter's was horrendous

Did you read the first sentence?

Jay Bee

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2016, 11:02:29 AM »
Did you read the first sentence?

I think you mean second sentence, but yes - quite funny! "Hey I know this 'analysis' doesn't make any sense, but I'm going to go ahead & do it anyway!!"

bilsu

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2016, 01:02:57 PM »
I think you mean second sentence, but yes - quite funny! "Hey I know this 'analysis' doesn't make any sense, but I'm going to go ahead & do it anyway!!"
Should of been first line. However, Carter would of had more turnovers, if he had played as many minutes as Henry. Who knows how many turnovers Wilson would of had, if he played point guard instead of shooting guard. What it does show is that there were plenty of turnovers made by our young players. Turnovers are somewhat caused by not knowing what the other player is going to do. It is more obvious in football when the quarterback throws a pass expecting a receiver to break one way when the receiver actually breaks the other way, but I saw it happen more than a few time last year with MU's team. For example A player starts to break for basket and all of a sudden stops as the pass sails out of bounds or a player in the corner all of sudden leaves just as the pass is being made to him. One of the reasons UW has had so few turnovers over the years is that the point guard could count on the other players being where they were suppose to be.

Brewtown Andy

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2016, 09:38:58 PM »
I doubt Cheatham will play much point this year. Unless injuries become an issue.

Cheatham played 29.5 minutes per game and started every single one.

Carter played 23.9 mpg and started 19 of 33 games.

Cheatham didn't play that much point last year.
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bilsu

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2016, 10:11:10 PM »
There are two players barring injury that are guaranteed to start. Fischer at center and Haanif at any of the other four positions. Where Haanif plays depends on who wins the other three starting spots. I would be surprised if point is not manned by either Carter, Howard or Rowsey. However, what happens if Wojo thinks the best starting team has Hauser, Reinhardt and JJJ in the lineup? Please do not comeback and say that is not going to happen. I am not debating how likely it is. It is a what if question. Basically, it is the only way Haanif ends up at point.

Herman Cain

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Re: Can Traci cut down on turnovers?
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2016, 10:32:58 PM »
There are two players barring injury that are guaranteed to start. Fischer at center and Haanif at any of the other four positions. Where Haanif plays depends on who wins the other three starting spots. I would be surprised if point is not manned by either Carter, Howard or Rowsey. However, what happens if Wojo thinks the best starting team has Hauser, Reinhardt and JJJ in the lineup? Please do not comeback and say that is not going to happen. I am not debating how likely it is. It is a what if question. Basically, it is the only way Haanif ends up at point.
The answer to your What if Question  under the scenario you posed is, JJJ and Reinhardt  would share the Distributive responsibilities of the point. JJJ is our best pure passer and more importantly has great vision  when he drives,I think you will see him kick it out a lot under your scenario. He handled the ball at the top a lot last year.  Reinhardt has played point in the past as well .
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