How Can Marquette Overcome Its Lack Of Size?

[mubbnation]

I wrote an article about this topic using analytics from KenPom.com.

https://marquettenation.com/2016/07/15/how-can-marquette-overcome-lack-of-size/

What do you guys think? I'm open to criticism and other responses.

[WarriorFan]

Simple:  Play Fast.

Maybe hire Paul Westhead as offensive coordinator....???

[muwarrior69]

JUMP!

[tower912]

play fast, extend pressure, use the depth, hit the weight room. 

[Herman Cain]

play fast, extend pressure, use the depth, hit the weight room.

I agree with this analysis

[real chili 83]

Score more points.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

play fast, extend pressure, use the depth, hit the weight room.

This is it.  The first words that popped into my head is strength, pressure defense and superior ball control. 

Unfortunately all three will need significant improvement from last year. 

[dgies9156]

This is it.  The first words that popped into my head is strength, pressure defense and superior ball control. 

Unfortunately all three will need significant improvement from last year.

Agreed on all of these.

There have been some very good "short" teams throughout NCAA history. Al had a couple in the late 1960s. They were leapers and they blocked out effectively. As Frenns points out, it means hitting the weight room and, as Al's teams always did, play excellent defense.

One other point to consider -- we have have quite a bit more depth this year, which means we can run our opponents ragged.

[Jay Bee]

Some thoughts... let's just take one topic.

With star power and a talented, deep supporting cast on offense, Marquette's overall Offensive eFG% should improve. Sure, Ellenson may have provided extra spacing for his teammates, but this season's team can provide spacing for itself with its abundance of good shooters.

Concern here is I think we're relying on 3-point shooting, which can be volatile. Last year we were "a good shooting team" re: eFG%, but that's because of 2FG%. We shot 52.0% 2FG in BEast play, behind only Nova and X. It's actually a tough comp. I have a difficult time projecting MU's 2-point shooting to improve next year. It was our best 2FG% in the last 15 years, and our best ranking vs. peers over that same period as well.

3-point shooting of 33.9% for the season isn't terrible. Second best in the past five years; D-I avg was 34.7% last season. Can we get to, say, 36.2% like Nova hit last year? I think it's possible, but means we need a little luck on our side, imo.

Just playing with numbers quickly.. MU's 2FG% last year was 52.4%, 3FG 33.9% or 50.9% eFG%, and 30.3% of our attempts were treys. That mix got us to 52.0% eFG%.

Let's say we drop from #44 in 2FG% to #100.. or 50.4%. Meanwhile, we jump in 3FG% from #210 to Nova's #105 at 36.2% or 54.3% eFG% on 3-pointers. Keeping the same 30.3% attempt mix, that would mean an eFG% of 51.6%, down 40 basis points from a year ago.

If we say "no, we'll be shooting lots of threes".. let's up the mix of 3FGA's to 40%... now, our eFG% rises to 52.0%, or even with last year.

So, should our offensive eFG% improve? A year ago in conference it was third behind a pair of NCAA 2-seeds. It was our best 2FG% in many years and our 3FG% wasn't awful. It COULD and HOPEFULLY will... but should? Not sure I can get there.

[Jay Bee]

One more topic...

All three teams played well enough to receive bids to the NCAA Tournament despite mediocre-to-poor results in defending or rebounding.

Missouri: #223 Defensive eFG%, #173 Defensive Rebounding %, #228 Offensive Rebounding %
Villanova: #42 Defensive eFG%**, #147 Defensive Rebounding %, #224 Offensive Rebounding %.
Marquette: #201 Defensive eFG%, #178 Defensive Rebounding %, #238 Offensive Rebounding %.

In these examples, the worst DR% team is #178 in the nation. A year ago, MU was #225. They return only one player who had a DR% of 12% or better (Sandy Cohen, 13.7%). On paper, their DR% is a bigger concern than it was for any of the examples listed above.

Luke hasn't ever rebounded the ball well on defense. Bad wing and other injuries? Maybe to a degree?.. what's his upside? 11.8% next year ain't gonna cut it and frankly neither will his career-best 12.8%. I'm OK with him not being a great DRebounder, but man.. can we get to at least 15% or so? Newcomers include little guards like Rowsey and Markus... and Katin, who has some of the lowest DR% seasons for a 6'6" guy you could ever imagine.

If MU can get into the #147-#178 DR% range, I think most of us would be pleased. How do they get there, though?!?!?!??!?!?!??!?!?!

[brewcity77]

Agreed on rebounding. This team will need to be a good "team rebounding" team. If Luke can box out well and the other guys can pick up the slack, they have a chance. But no one on the roster really is much of a rebounder. There's lots of talk about Reinhardt playing up a position and guarding the 4, but as a rebounder, he's been generally terrible over his career. I think the answer needs to come from a swarming rebounding approach where the guards are willing to get in there and go after the ball.

I do think eFG% can improve, but as Jay Bee noted, being a long-range team can be volatile. I think in most games we'll be an above average three-point shooting team. There will be a few where hot shooting will win us the game, probably a few where cold nights will lose it for us. It's the rest of the games where it really matters. If we win 5 games on red-hot shooting and lose 5 the same way, that means we need to be better than the norm in the other 20 games to be a good team. Hope that's the case.

Looking at your examples, it's also worth noting that those teams may not have had height, but they had guys that could mix it up a bit. Jimmy could play the 4. Fulce got after the ball. Maymon (while here) rebounded well. The Villanova team had Darryl Reynolds, Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins, and Mikal Bridges. Two of those guys were pretty darn thick and the other two rebounded well for their size.

The team that this Marquette unit would most want to emulate might be that Missouri squad, at least defensively. Ratliffe may have been the only big, but virtually everyone on the team had a 10+ DR%. Denmon, English, Pressey, all were good rebounders for their size. That's what Marquette needs to do. Well...that and not lose to Norfolk State the first game of the tourney

[tower912]

On the scout board, Dodds seems convinced that Hauser is going to be able to come in and give valuable moments at the 4.   I am always skeptical about freshman contributions.    BUT.... if he comes in at 220 and willing to wrestle down low, he may help. 

[brewcity77]

We'll see. I know Sam has been working out, but I've always thought he'd project more as a wing at this level, certainly early on. I think Howard will give meaningful minutes, but I'm expecting very little from Sam. Anything meaningful he can provide would be like found money.

[tower912]

That is my instinct, also.  At the end of the day, team rebounding is going to be crucial.   KR, Sandy, JjJ, Cheatham, Anim (?) are all going to have to play bigger than their listed sizes. 

[Marcus92]

The discussion and points about EFG% and rebounding are great. But reducing turnovers is just as important. If we want to finish in the top half of the Big East, we can't afford to give away as many possessions as we did a year ago. Traci, Haanif, Duane and others need to show major improvement in this area.

[brewcity77]

The discussion and points about EFG% and rebounding are great. But reducing turnovers is just as important. If we want to finish in the top half of the Big East, we can't afford to give away as many possessions as we did a year ago. Traci, Haanif, Duane and others need to show major improvement in this area.

Personally I'm not as worried about this one. While it's certainly important, our two primary ball handlers were freshmen. I expect improvement from them, and adding Rowsey and Reinhardt should also help. Of all the issues this team will face, this is the one I think will most likely take care of itself.

[Jay Bee]

The discussion and points about EFG% and rebounding are great. But reducing turnovers is just as important. If we want to finish in the top half of the Big East, we can't afford to give away as many possessions as we did a year ago. Traci, Haanif, Duane and others need to show major improvement in this area.

I agree w/brewcity77 on this one... eFG% is obviously most important.

Duane had a mid-18's turnover rate for the season and in conference play. Would love it to dip down a couple percentage points, but I can actually live with that. Major improvement not needed there.

Traci and Haanif, absolutely. Traci has to or will have to sit more. But, the key there is they're sophomores.

Off turnovers are certainly something to keep an eye on, but I'd expect improvement there just based on personnel and their experience levels vs. last year. The improvement SHOULD be there. eFG%... rebounding? The challenges are greater.

[brandx]

On the scout board, Dodds seems convinced that Hauser is going to be able to come in and give valuable moments at the 4.   I am always skeptical about freshman contributions.    BUT.... if he comes in at 220 and willing to wrestle down low, he may help.

I don't get why he would say this. Sam mostly played on outside or on the wing in HS.

[wadesworld]

Sam has added some bulk and is sneakily athletic. He could end up being one of our better rebounders. We don't really have a wealth of guys who have spent their basketball playing lives on the blocks.

[bilsu]

I saw Reinhardt walk in with JJJ last night at the pro am. My first thought was who was the white guy with JJJ that was almost as tall as he was? Once I saw the tattoo on his arm I figured it out.  He was in good physical shape, but he may be slightly smaller than JJJ. It made me think we are going to have a bigger deficit at power forward than I was thinking. JJJ and Wilson played against each other last night and both had very good offensive games. J. P. Tokoto was on Wilson's team and his athleticism is off the charts.  He could jump significantly higher than JJJ. He was also quicker than JJJ and Wilson, which made me think that our most athletic players have average athleticism for a college player. You can still be a very good player without being super athletic, but it is going to limit us in rebounding end. The team will have to become very good at blocking out. We have to remember that Buzz's small team included two future 30Th picks in the NBA draft that were very athletic players. That team also had DJO and Buycks. I not sure if this year's team could match the athleticism of Buzz's small team.

[Nukem2]

I saw Reinhardt walk in with JJJ last night at the pro am. My first thought was who was the white guy with JJJ that was almost as tall as he was? Once I saw the tattoo on his arm I figured it out.  He was in good physical shape, but he may be slightly smaller than JJJ. It made me think we are going to have a bigger deficit at power forward than I was thinking. JJJ and Wilson played against each other last night and both had very good offensive games. J. P. Tokoto was on Wilson's team and his athleticism is off the charts.  He could jump significantly higher than JJJ. He was also quicker than JJJ and Wilson, which made me think that our most athletic players have average athleticism for a college player. You can still be a very good player without being super athletic, but it is going to limit us in rebounding end. The team will have to become very good at blocking out. We have to remember that Buzz's small team included two future 30Th picks in the NBA draft that were very athletic players. That team also had DJO and Buycks. I not sure if this year's team could match the athleticism of Buzz's small team.

As small as this MU team is, it is not overly athletic or long or physically strong.  This team needs to have strong fundamentals to be successful.

[brewcity77]

We have to remember that Buzz's small team included two future 30Th picks in the NBA draft that were very athletic players. That team also had DJO and Buycks. I not sure if this year's team could match the athleticism of Buzz's small team.

When you think about the team at the time, as JFB was just emerging and DJO and Buycks were in their first year here, it's almost amazing that there were four NBA players on that team. Having that kind of raw ability goes a long way. Does this team have that kind of talent? My initial inclination is to say no, but we'd have said the same in 2010. This team will be interesting to watch develop, but that rebounding thing is going to be tough.

[4everwarriors]

Keep tuggin' on der Johnsons, hey?

[GGGG]

Keep tuggin' on der Johnsons, hey?

Is that an offer?

[Marcus92]

Off turnovers are certainly something to keep an eye on, but I'd expect improvement there just based on personnel and their experience levels vs. last year. The improvement SHOULD be there.

I hope this is the case. Protecting the ball is a mindset. Our TO% a year ago suggests the team didn't truly understand the value of every possession — and how much turnovers hurt your chances of winning. I'm sure this has been a big focus for Wojo and the coaching staff. We need significant improvement here.