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MU82

I'm not an advanced-stat guy, so I don't know the answer to this.

Do advanced stats support the notion that Michael Jordan is the best basketball player ever?
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

Brewtown Andy

Quote from: MU82 on July 06, 2016, 09:49:46 PM
I'm not an advanced-stat guy, so I don't know the answer to this.

Do advanced stats support the notion that Michael Jordan is the best basketball player ever?

He has the highest career win shares per 48 minutes and the highest career player efficiency rating.
Twitter - @brewtownandy
Anonymous Eagle

brandx

Quote from: Brewtown Andy on July 06, 2016, 11:12:37 PM
He has the highest career win shares per 48 minutes and the highest career player efficiency rating.

Thanks, Andy. I wasn't sure if my eyes were correct or not. ;)

Herman Cain

Henry sporting an untucked look today. Went 1-5 from field 4 points . 6 boards. 3 turnovers.

He seems like he is having a lot of fun out there.
"It was a Great Day until it wasn't"
    ——Rory McIlroy on Final Round at Pinehurst

MU82

Quote from: Brewtown Andy on July 06, 2016, 11:12:37 PM
He has the highest career win shares per 48 minutes and the highest career player efficiency rating.

Thanks. Those do sound very impressive!

Who is No. 2 in those categories?
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

Herman Cain

"It was a Great Day until it wasn't"
    ——Rory McIlroy on Final Round at Pinehurst

brewcity77

Quote from: MU82 on July 07, 2016, 09:41:22 PM
Thanks. Those do sound very impressive!

Who is No. 2 in those categories?

Per basketball-reference.com, here's the top-10 for both categories, including NBA and ABA:

Win Shares per 48 Minutes

1) Michael Jordan
2) David Robinson
3) Chris Paul
4) Wilt Chamberlain
5) Neil Johnston
6) Lebron James
7) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8) Magic Johnson
9) Charles Barkley
10) Kevin Durant

Player Efficiency Rating

1) Michael Jordan
2) Lebron James
3) Shaquille O'Neal
4) David Robinson
5) Wilt Chamberlain
6) Chris Paul
7) Bob Pettit
8) Kevin Durant
9) Neil Johnston
10) Dwyane Wade

MerrittsMustache

Quote from: brewcity77 on July 08, 2016, 10:34:10 AM
Per basketball-reference.com, here's the top-10 for both categories, including NBA and ABA:

Win Shares per 48 Minutes

1) Michael Jordan
2) David Robinson
3) Chris Paul
4) Wilt Chamberlain
5) Neil Johnston
6) Lebron James
7) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8) Magic Johnson
9) Charles Barkley
10) Kevin Durant

Player Efficiency Rating

1) Michael Jordan
2) Lebron James
3) Shaquille O'Neal
4) David Robinson
5) Wilt Chamberlain
6) Chris Paul
7) Bob Pettit
8) Kevin Durant
9) Neil Johnston
10) Dwyane Wade

Any type of stat with the word "win" in it that has Chris Paul #3 all-time and doesn't include Bill Russell is incredibly flawed.


Herman Cain

Quote from: brewcity77 on July 08, 2016, 10:34:10 AM
Per basketball-reference.com, here's the top-10 for both categories, including NBA and ABA:

Win Shares per 48 Minutes

1) Michael Jordan
2) David Robinson
3) Chris Paul
4) Wilt Chamberlain
5) Neil Johnston
6) Lebron James
7) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
8) Magic Johnson
9) Charles Barkley
10) Kevin Durant

Player Efficiency Rating

1) Michael Jordan
2) Lebron James
3) Shaquille O'Neal
4) David Robinson
5) Wilt Chamberlain
6) Chris Paul
7) Bob Pettit
8) Kevin Durant
9) Neil Johnston
10) Dwyane Wade
These stats have some value in a general sense. However, common sense needs to be applied. There have been significant rules changes over the years which makes compassion difficult.

For example Oscar Robertson had a season which he averaged a triple double. Any player efficiency rating that does not have Oscar Robertson among the top has flaws.
"It was a Great Day until it wasn't"
    ——Rory McIlroy on Final Round at Pinehurst

brewcity77

Robertson is 16th in win shares/48 and 20th in PER. The lack of a three-point line hurt him as he only had 3 seasons over 50% FG% and his best percentage for a full season was only 0.518. Either way, I'd consider being in the top-20 to be "among the top", and Neil Johnston is up there and he played in the 1950s, so it's not like it was impossible to be efficient back in the day.

Herman Cain

Quote from: brewcity77 on July 08, 2016, 11:43:18 AM
Robertson is 16th in win shares/48 and 20th in PER. The lack of a three-point line hurt him as he only had 3 seasons over 50% FG% and his best percentage for a full season was only 0.518. Either way, I'd consider being in the top-20 to be "among the top", and Neil Johnston is up there and he played in the 1950s, so it's not like it was impossible to be efficient back in the day.
Did you ever see Oscar play?
"It was a Great Day until it wasn't"
    ——Rory McIlroy on Final Round at Pinehurst

brewcity77

Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on July 08, 2016, 11:49:15 AM
Did you ever see Oscar play?

No. But I could watch every minute and he'd still be a top-20 WS/48 and PER player. As the last NBA "greatest" list had 50 players on it, I'd say that's pretty much elite. And he did it without a three-point line. So all the better. Seems like you're trying to hatch an argument out of nothing. Pretty sure that role on Scoop has already been taken by AnotherHeisenLivermore.

GGGG

The basic reason that Oscar averaged a triple-double that season was due to the pace of the game.  Some perspective:

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2014/01/29/a-closer-look-at-oscar-robertsons-triple-double-season/5027023/

"In 1961-62, teams averaged 71.4 rebounds per game, 23.9 assists and 118.8 points. When Jason Kidd averaged 13.0 points, 8.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists in 2006-07, the league averages were 41.1, 21.3 and 98.7, respectively. If Kidd had the benefit of '61-62's pace, he would have averaged 15.6 points, 14.2 rebounds and 10.3 assists.

Put Robertson's '61-62 season at the pace in '06-07 and his numbers drop to 25.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 10.2 assists; still Hall of Fame-worthy numbers....

So Robertson's season was still amazing as a quick scan through www.basketball-reference.com's Play Index indicates there have only been four others that would have averaged a triple-double – and none within five points per game of Robertson – but it was not quite as unique as the surface stats indicate."

GGGG

And this...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/russell-westbrook-is-the-greatest-triple-double-machine-in-recorded-history/

"But Westbrook's triple-double splurge — and the league's as a whole — is way more impressive than it appears on the surface. That's because Magic's "Showtime" Lakers teams from the '80s played at a much faster pace, giving players more possessions per game to score, assist and rebound. Ditto for Oscar Robertson: The Big O played in the early 1960s, a time of breakneck back-and-forth play that allowed him to pick up a mountain of box score stats.

Adjusting for pace shows that Westbrook is in rarefied territory in averaging a triple-double per 100 possessions; and he did it last year, too. It's an exclusive group: Only eight players have ever done so for a season, and just four of them — Westbrook, LeBron James, Jason Kidd and Magic Johnson — have done it for multiple seasons. Also on this list: Draymond Green this season...

Where is Oscar, though? While the Big O's 1961-62 season remains the only time a player managed to average a triple-double per game for an entire season, he's not included in this list. His Cincinnati Royals played at an incredible pace: nearly 125 possessions per 48 minutes. And because of that, Robertson fell just short of averaging a pace-adjusted triple-double that vaunted season — his stat line was 26.7 points, 10.8 rebounds and 9.9 assists per 100 possessions. That said, Robertson averaged a ridiculous 30-10-10 per game over his first six seasons."

avid1010

Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 07:32:40 PM

I understand that you and most haven't seen some of these guys in the gym for many, many years.. I understand that you and most haven't done statistical analysis that few have done...

...but don't discount those that do.

by that same logic, you're not an NBA scout, so who cares about your opinion on hank...we'll take their's?

MerrittsMustache

Quote from: The Sultan of Sunshine on July 08, 2016, 12:06:42 PM
The basic reason that Oscar averaged a triple-double that season was due to the pace of the game.  Some perspective:

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2014/01/29/a-closer-look-at-oscar-robertsons-triple-double-season/5027023/

"In 1961-62, teams averaged 71.4 rebounds per game, 23.9 assists and 118.8 points. When Jason Kidd averaged 13.0 points, 8.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists in 2006-07, the league averages were 41.1, 21.3 and 98.7, respectively. If Kidd had the benefit of '61-62's pace, he would have averaged 15.6 points, 14.2 rebounds and 10.3 assists.


The NBA is a different game today than it was 50+ years ago. "Adjusting for pace" across eras is a fruitless exercise. NBA players should be compared to their peers who played during that time period. For example, the NBA played at that "breakneck back-and-forth" pace for over a decade. How many other guys averaged a triple-double in a season?


Jay Bee

Quote from: avid1010 on July 08, 2016, 12:41:58 PM
by that same logic, you're not an NBA scout, so who cares about your opinion on hank...we'll take their's?

How do you know what I am or am not?
The portal is NOT closed.

Herman Cain

Henry 22 in summer league final. 7-19 from field 12 boards. Missed last second shot to tie championship game, but overall was very active.
"It was a Great Day until it wasn't"
    ——Rory McIlroy on Final Round at Pinehurst

GGGG

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on July 08, 2016, 12:47:54 PM
The NBA is a different game today than it was 50+ years ago. "Adjusting for pace" across eras is a fruitless exercise. NBA players should be compared to their peers who played during that time period. For example, the NBA played at that "breakneck back-and-forth" pace for over a decade. How many other guys averaged a triple-double in a season?


No one.  I'm certainly not saying he wasn't a great player.  Just that the entire "averaged a triple/double in a season" needs to be judged in context.

avid1010

Quote from: Jay Bee on July 08, 2016, 12:52:40 PM
How do you know what I am or am not?
enlighten me...because you seem to enjoy putting yourself on a pedestal on this site.  i just figured someone who had time to do that wasn't working in the league.

brandx

Quote from: The Sultan of Sunshine on July 08, 2016, 01:17:52 PM

No one.  I'm certainly not saying he wasn't a great player.  Just that the entire "averaged a triple/double in a season" needs to be judged in context.

Sultan, I pretty much agree with your points. Another thing to remember is that 'O' was a full 6'5", 220+ pounds. He could compete with the power forwards in the league back then.

What made Oscar special was the way he played the game. Very sound fundamentals. His game was as well rounded as Lebron. And comparing the size of players then and now, he had the same physical advantages that Lebron has now at 6'8", 250 lbs.

Herman Cain

Quote from: brandx on July 08, 2016, 03:57:12 PM
Sultan, I pretty much agree with your points. Another thing to remember is that 'O' was a full 6'5", 220+ pounds. He could compete with the power forwards in the league back then.

What made Oscar special was the way he played the game. Very sound fundamentals. His game was as well rounded as Lebron. And comparing the size of players then and now, he had the same physical advantages that Lebron has now at 6'8", 250 lbs.
One persons point of view

http://nba.nbcsports.com/2013/10/03/kareem-says-oscar-robertson-better-than-jordan-or-lebron/
"It was a Great Day until it wasn't"
    ——Rory McIlroy on Final Round at Pinehurst

Brewtown Andy

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on July 08, 2016, 11:21:20 AM
Any type of stat with the word "win" in it that has Chris Paul #3 all-time and doesn't include Bill Russell is incredibly flawed.

Paul may be benefiting from modern basketball having more stats being kept than when Russell played.  IIRC, steals, assists, and blocks are somewhat newer concepts, and each one of those in a career would earn you some fraction of a win share.
Twitter - @brewtownandy
Anonymous Eagle

MU82

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on July 08, 2016, 11:21:20 AM
Any type of stat with the word "win" in it that has Chris Paul #3 all-time and doesn't include Bill Russell is incredibly flawed.

Made me laugh ... but it's also so true.

But hey, Russell only got the easy 22.5 rebounds per game over his career and only won the easy 11 championships!

Also, I laugh every time I hear about somebody who sets a new record for blocked shots -- as if Russell and Chamberlain didn't have more back when they weren't "official" stats.
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

brewcity77

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on July 08, 2016, 11:21:20 AM
Any type of stat with the word "win" in it that has Chris Paul #3 all-time and doesn't include Bill Russell is incredibly flawed.

Russell's rank (#26 all-time) does seem a bit surprising, especially with guys like Chamberlain, Johnston, West, Pettit, and Chamberlain all being in the top-20 despite playing in an era without an appreciation of advanced metrics. Russell's PER is even lower (#104 all-time) which seems incredibly low, regardless of the era he played in.

As Andy noted, Russell may suffer from fewer "official" stats being kept that aid those rankings, but with guys like Chamberlain and Johnston in the top-10 despite playing in similar or earlier eras, it does seem odd that Russell would be so far down.

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