Vander Summer League

[ChicosBailBonds]

If your scout friends really think that a 6'4" shooting guard who couldn't shoot was going to get drafted after his senior year then they aren't very good scouts.

Yes, there is a reason that scouts said Vander should remain at college.  That reason is that he was not going to get drafted.  If Duane Wilson had decided he wanted to "enter the NBA Draft" back in April they would've said the same thing.  Not because that means "You're not ready for the NBA, but if you go back to school you have a great chance of being drafted after next season!"  It simply means, "You're not going to get drafted in this year's NBA Draft."

My Scout friends do this for a living, for the NBA, for Draft Express, etc.  No one is perfect, but they  have a very good track record.  To say they aren't very good scouts is laughable.  That is a merit based business, you produce or you are gone.  If you have bad evaluations, you are gone.  Simple as that. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

In other words, it is statistically far less likely for a second-round pick to make an NBA roster than to not make an NBA roster.

Facts. Gotta hate 'em when you're a certain Scooper who keeps making arguments to the contrary.

So great, coming from you.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So 28/67 2nd rounders make an NBA roster.  26 out of some much, much, much larger number (all college senior playing basketball players plus internationals who come over) make it.  Seems like 2nd rounders have a much better chance of making it than non-draftees, which is part of Chico's point.
So I'm not so sure what these numbers mean to Vander's case.

DING DING DING.  We have a winner.  It's all the denominator, but math class was missed by some of these guys.  Furthermore, the sample size he is using is laughable. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

In retrospect, they were wrong.

Prove it!

You can't

[ChicosBailBonds]

No. At worst, he goes undrafted again, loses a year of salary and is right where he is today.

As I posted before but you ignored...

Of the 25 non-international 2nd Round picks in the 2013 NBA Draft, only 8 are currently on NBA rosters.

Of the Undrafted players from the 2013 NBA Draft, 7 are currently on NBA rosters.


Of the 24 non-international 2nd Round picks in the 2014 NBA Draft, only 11 are currently on NBA rosters.

Of the Undrafted players from the 2014 NBA Draft, 10 are currently on NBA rosters.

IOW, there are 17 undrafted players from those classes in the NBA and 30 second round picks out of the NBA. How could that be? No 2nd, 3rd and 4th chances for those guys?


ADDITIONAL NOTE: 32 players were called up from the D-League in 2015-16. 18 of them were Undrafted, 9 were former 2nd Rounders and 5 were former 1st Rounders.

I ignored it because it is so massive with errors.   What was the pool of 2nd round draft picks?  30.  What was the pool of undrafted players?  100?  200?  500?   The point is, you're not even comparing apples to apples.  Your denominators are laughable.

Secondly, you're using 2013, 2014, 2015 very recent...as if no second chances can still exist?  Of course they can. 

Third, you assume he would be drafted in the 2nd round in this analysis.  Who's to say he doesn't go up to the first round, which some scouts projected?  We will never know.

End of the day, his chances of being drafted into the NBA were better if he stayed his senior year than when he left, the opinions of a number of scouts.  Since none of the 30 GMs drafted him in either round, their actions seem to agree.  We'll never know if he would have been drafted in the next year, but experts in the field suggest he would.  What we do know, for a fact, is he wasn't drafted the year he came out.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Vander's issue was he wasn't a great outside shooter and undersized at the 2.  He needed to prove he could play the point, or at least be serviceable in that area.  That's why returning would have been wise.  Hell, even Buzz knew what a dumb decision it was.

[wadesworld]

My Scout friends do this for a living, for the NBA, for Draft Express, etc.  No one is perfect, but they  have a very good track record.  To say they aren't very good scouts is laughable.  That is a merit based business, you produce or you are gone.  If you have bad evaluations, you are gone.  Simple as that.

Just stating the fact that if your scout friends thought that a 6'3" SG who shoots the ball worse than Zaza Pachulia was going to be drafted after his senior year of college they aren't very good scouts.

[wadesworld]

Vander's issue was he wasn't a great outside shooter and undersized at the 2.  He needed to prove he could play the point, or at least be serviceable in that area.  That's why returning would have been wise.  Hell, even Buzz knew what a dumb decision it was.

Returning would've been wise for who?

It was a dumb decision for who?

Vander started getting paid a year earlier than what he would've had he stayed in school and at the same rate he would've a year later. And he didn't have to attend classes and could focus 100% on his career. Doesn't seem like all that bad of a decision to me.

[ChicosBailBonds]

In early April of 2013, Draft Express and two other draft publications had Vander as a 2014 FIRST ROUND draft choice.  Now, would he have made it?  Who knows, but that's what the experts had projected at the time.  Not second round.  Not undrafted, but first round.

[rocket surgeon]

Returning would've been wise for who?

It was a dumb decision for who?

Vander started getting paid a year earlier than what he would've had he stayed in school and at the same rate he would've a year later. And he didn't have to attend classes and could focus 100% on his career. Doesn't seem like all that bad of a decision to me.

how much was he getting paid??  he had no stability with regards to where he was going to hang his marble sack.  yes, i know that isn't that uncommon for anyone seeking a new career in whatever it may be.

vander returns for one more year to work on the skills that the NBA needs him for.  playing larger, working on a better outside shot-consistency,etc   for me, vander left for more reasons than just wanting to move to the next level.  he was getting bad advice-2nd round or undrafted invitee,  worse case scenario-europe where he could actually make pretty good rubels.  well, vander didn't like europe regardless of the $$$ and he WANTED the NBA-period.  i think he liked his girls to have less arm pit hair than he for starters

           that's where the sticky wicket come in-were there rumors of difficult to coach? attitudes? work ethic?

i remember seeing the transformation of jj reddick from rookie to 2nd-3rd year NBA was amazing.  initially, he looked lost, very very; a boy among men. he looked destined for europe or d-league...forever.  during the next 2 years, he became a man and a force-how?  physically he put on some good muscle and developed a lethal outside shot, gained the quickness needed to NOT become a defensive liability

vander-say hello to jj or people like him and don't go around slapping people who look at you cross-eyed

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

What happened here

[GGGG]

What happened here

Chicos once again claims he knows people who know things and therefore he can't be wrong.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos once again claims he knows people who know things and therefore he can't be wrong.

I've openly posted interviews I've had with these people on CS.  You make it sound like they were made up.  Are you claiming I don't know these people?  This ought to be good.

I can be wrong and admit it often when I am

Once again Sultan is a little light in the credibility department.  Why stop now....

[ChicosBailBonds]

Returning would've been wise for who?

It was a dumb decision for who?

Vander started getting paid a year earlier than what he would've had he stayed in school and at the same rate he would've a year later. And he didn't have to attend classes and could focus 100% on his career. Doesn't seem like all that bad of a decision to me.

Delaying mediocre payment one year for the chance of real payment is not that big a risk.  He was 20, lots of time left.

I hope it works out for him. 

[jesmu84]

In early April of 2013, Draft Express and two other draft publications had Vander as a 2014 FIRST ROUND draft choice.  Now, would he have made it?  Who knows, but that's what the experts had projected at the time.  Not second round.  Not undrafted, but first round.

Once again, I understand this. But there had to be stipulations/assumptions to go along with their predictions, right? I'm guessing those assumptions are that he would have improved even more beyond his abilities junior year.

I believe those assumptions would not have come to pass. And, judging by where he is right now professionally, I appear to be correct.

[GGGG]

Right.  He's in the exact same place he would have been.  Except he would have been one year closer to a degree.

[MU82]

Vander clearly didn't want to be in college for another year.

THAT seems to me to have been the driving force behind his decision, which I'm guessing he made quite a while before the season ended.

I respect his honesty: He didn't want to "waste" another year of pretending to care about school. If he was as good as a sophomore as he was as a junior, he almost surely would have left then. Some athletes simply don't want to be in college one day longer than they absolutely have to be.

Maybe he also thought he could be an NBA player, that once scouts saw him in tryouts, etc, they would fall in love with him. He was wrong about that. Not the first time a 20-year-old didn't assess his prospects properly.

Would he have been an NBA player had he stayed another season? We will never, ever, ever know ... no matter how many times Chicos says it's so. What we do know is that he is not quite big enough, does not have quite a good enough handle, does not have PG skills and is not quite a good enough shooter. There have been a few exceptions but, most of the time, talent wins out. History is filled with college stars who are lousy pro prospects ... and although I really liked Vander being on our team, he was hardly a "star."

I doubt another year at Marquette would have made him taller, stronger, more point-guardy, more of a marksman, etc, but I acknowledge that is only my opinion. I like to think I have a fairly educated opinion on these things, but I've been wrong more than a few times. Hell, I sure didn't think Jimmy Butler would be an All-Star.

Oh, and I recognize the mathematical error I made with the whole second-round thing earlier in this thread. It probably won't be my last mistake this week ... and the week only has a few hours left.

[Herman Cain]

Vander clearly didn't want to be in college for another year.

THAT seems to me to have been the driving force behind his decision, which I'm guessing he made quite a while before the season ended.

I respect his honesty: He didn't want to "waste" another year of pretending to care about school. If he was as good as a sophomore as he was as a junior, he almost surely would have left then. Some athletes simply don't want to be in college one day longer than they absolutely have to be.

Maybe he also thought he could be an NBA player, that once scouts saw him in tryouts, etc, they would fall in love with him. He was wrong about that. Not the first time a 20-year-old didn't assess his prospects properly.

Would he have been an NBA player had he stayed another season? We will never, ever, ever know ... no matter how many times Chicos says it's so. What we do know is that he is not quite big enough, does not have quite a good enough handle, does not have PG skills and is not quite a good enough shooter. There have been a few exceptions but, most of the time, talent wins out. History is filled with college stars who are lousy pro prospects ... and although I really liked Vander being on our team, he was hardly a "star."

I doubt another year at Marquette would have made him taller, stronger, more point-guardy, more of a marksman, etc, but I acknowledge that is only my opinion. I like to think I have a fairly educated opinion on these things, but I've been wrong more than a few times. Hell, I sure didn't think Jimmy Butler would be an All-Star.

Oh, and I recognize the mathematical error I made with the whole second-round thing earlier in this thread. It probably won't be my last mistake this week ... and the week only has a few hours left.

The point about not liking going to school is a good one. One of the things to consider was that Vander may well have been on an academic borderline. The prior year I believe Todd Mayo had some academic issues and missed part of a season. It very well could have been a risk Vander did not want to take. If that were the case, and I don't know if it is, that would support his decision to leave school. In any case I think he is still in pretty much the same place he would have been if he stayed. Right now he needs to find a GM/Coach in the NBA that believes in what he has to offer and give him more than a 10 day contract to prove it.

[GGGG]

Vander was fine academically. 

[MUDPT]

I'll add to this to say I've gotten to know one of vander's elementary school teachers who has nothing but great things to say about him. They still communicate to this day.

[MU82]

Vander was fine academically.

Let the record show that I never said he was anything but fine academically. (And I don't think this was addressed to me.)

All I said was that it seemed to me, from afar, that he did not want to attend college any longer than he had to. And I also said that was only my opinion.

[GGGG]

Let the record show that I never said he was anything but fine academically. (And I don't think this was addressed to me.)

All I said was that it seemed to me, from afar, that he did not want to attend college any longer than he had to. And I also said that was only my opinion.

MU Fan in NY said "One of the things to consider was that Vander may well have been on an academic borderline."

He wasn't.  He was in good shape.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Once again, I understand this. But there had to be stipulations/assumptions to go along with their predictions, right? I'm guessing those assumptions are that he would have improved even more beyond his abilities junior year.

I believe those assumptions would not have come to pass. And, judging by where he is right now professionally, I appear to be correct.

I'm not sure how you get to your second paragraph in all honesty.  Yes, the assumption is that he would continue to improve.  Drafting is a lot on potential, right.  If he continued to improve, the experts believed he would, those same experts believed he would be drafted and in the first round by some.  What he has done since I'd irrelevant to whether he would have been drafted. 

Lots of guys are drafted that don't pan out long term.  But that's the point, they still got drafted.  Many of them with multiple opportunities because they were drafted.

One thing for certain, if he was drafted in the first round as a number of these experts predicted, that's guaranteed money. 

[GGGG]

"They get multiple opportunities because they were drafted."

No. They get multiple opportunities because they are considered more talented. No NBA GM is thinking "I was going to invite this guy in. But he wasn't drafted. So I'll invite this other guy instead who was drafted and cut by another team."

Vander has had plenty of chances and opportunities. He has been in three organizations and played in the NBA for two teams. Being drafted wouldn't have helped him any more.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The point about not liking going to school is a good one. One of the things to consider was that Vander may well have been on an academic borderline. The prior year I believe Todd Mayo had some academic issues and missed part of a season. It very well could have been a risk Vander did not want to take. If that were the case, and I don't know if it is, that would support his decision to leave school. In any case I think he is still in pretty much the same place he would have been if he stayed. Right now he needs to find a GM/Coach in the NBA that believes in what he has to offer and give him more than a 10 day contract to prove it.

It is a lazy one.  The way the NCAA works all he had to do was go to school for one more semester.  Second semester he could have mailed in everything...sad to say, but he could have.  There is a reason why Buzz was so dumbfounded at this decision, because it was a dumb decision.

Separately....MU82...

Now, MU82, I have stated that i'm leaning on expert opinions, not just mine.  People that do this for a living.  But I also agree with you that we will never know.  That goes both ways!