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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 53495 times)

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #225 on: February 13, 2017, 10:25:39 PM »
I don't know Jay Bee's investing philosophy, so I'll speak for myself.

I bought my fairly small AAPL position at about $95. When it went down below $90, I didn't lose a cent ... because I did not sell at the bottom. It's now at $133. If it goes down to, say, $110, I won't have lost a cent. Not only will I not be selling it, but even if I did sell it, I bought it at $95 in the first place.

I figure I will hold AAPL for 20 years, and I will reinvest the dividends. The price will go up and it will go down some. And it will go up more and it will go down some. And it will go up still more and it will go down some. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Now, I could try to guess the tops and sell, and then try to guess the bottoms and buy. Or I could just hold and reap the rewards long-term.

This is pretty much how I manage my entire portfolio. I am a very reluctant seller, and a very long-term owner of great companies.

I don't try to outsmart the market. I know you do, and that's cool, Smuggles. I don't begrudge you your billions, as long as you don't begrudge me my mere millions.

As the ratio chart above shows, you'd be better off with this exact philosophy with and S&P 500 ETF.  And you would have made 40% more money since 2012.   And Again, 2012 was not a random date, it was the end of the Jobs era and since then it goes up and down but has largely been a laggard to the broad market.

So, serious question, what have you seen since Jobs' death that makes you think this will be a better idea over the next 20 years as opposed to an S&P 500 ETF?  It has not the last 4 1/2 years. 

Seems like the entire company is now riding on the iPhone8 and its augmented reality (AR).  If it is the next Siri or the watch (over-hyped disappointments), it's a$70 stock.  If it is the second coming of smart phones,it's a $200 stock.  Good luck, without Jobs at the helm, you'll need it.

I'll bet on Google.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2017, 10:35:50 PM by Yukon Cornelius »

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #226 on: February 13, 2017, 11:31:01 PM »
As the ratio chart above shows, you'd be better off with this exact philosophy with and S&P 500 ETF.  And you would have made 40% more money since 2012.   And Again, 2012 was not a random date, it was the end of the Jobs era and since then it goes up and down but has largely been a laggard to the broad market.

So, serious question, what have you seen since Jobs' death that makes you think this will be a better idea over the next 20 years as opposed to an S&P 500 ETF?  It has not the last 4 1/2 years. 

Seems like the entire company is now riding on the iPhone8 and its augmented reality (AR).  If it is the next Siri or the watch (over-hyped disappointments), it's a$70 stock.  If it is the second coming of smart phones,it's a $200 stock.  Good luck, without Jobs at the helm, you'll need it.

I'll bet on Google.

I don't just own AAPL. I own 40+ companies. It is one piece of my investing puzzle. And I have beaten SPY the last several years.

I am not really a big-time AAPL bull. I bought the company because I thought it was a quality brand available at an attractive price. It is one of my smaller positions. I see no reason to sell it. Since I've owned it, it has killed SPY. And since I've owned it is all that matters to me, not some cherry-picked timeframe of your choosing.
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

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MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #227 on: February 15, 2017, 08:44:02 AM »
Warren Buffett. Just another moron who doesn't know anything about investing:

In a regulatory filing, Berkshire reported owning 57.4 million shares of Apple as of Dec. 31, which would now be worth $7.74 billion, up from just from 15.2 million shares in the iPhone maker three months earlier.
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #228 on: February 15, 2017, 09:32:33 AM »
Warren Buffett. Just another moron who doesn't know anything about investing:

In a regulatory filing, Berkshire reported owning 57.4 million shares of Apple as of Dec. 31, which would now be worth $7.74 billion, up from just from 15.2 million shares in the iPhone maker three months earlier.

Don't get me started on America's living hypocrisy. 

Have you looked at his (poor) track record over the last 10 years?  Did you notice that he bought Apple with funds from his Walmart sale that he was crushed on?  Have you noted his 2011 admission that the financial crisis essentially bankrupted him and the bailouts are the only reason he is still the second richest man in America.

Have you noticed that your hero was the largest stock holder in Moodys, Goldman, mortgage brokers and the single largest defender of the practices that caused the financial crisis?  Have you noticed that he owns Burlington Northern railroad, the largest shipper of crude by rail (which has had a bad record of blowing up, killing people and causing severe environmental damage) yet he funds and promotes extreme environmentalist to protest the cheaper and safer alternate crude oil pipelines, a direct competitor of Burlington.

Have you read his (87 year old and probably senile) partner Charlie Munger insane rants about putting Jews back in the ovens?

The man was the greatest investor that has ever lived until about 2005.  Since he has been a doubling deal walking contradiction that promoted the worst practices in the financial markets for personal gain, and has gotten more in governemnt bailouts that any single person to stay a billionaire, and his track record over in the post-crisis period has not been good.  Oh, and he pays for environmentalists to fight pipelines that compete with his railroad that keeps blowing up when shipping crude.

If you want to pick someone that is "not a moron" when it comes to Apple, try Carl Icahn, he as one of its biggest supporters and largest shareholders until 2015 when he walked away from it, which turned out to be an excellent timing.  And he is a billionaire that did not need a government bailout to stay that way and he has actually had a good track record post-crisis.



Other than that, I really have no opinion on this topic. :)
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 09:38:42 AM by Yukon Cornelius »

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #229 on: February 15, 2017, 10:12:00 AM »
Don't get me started on America's living hypocrisy. 

Have you looked at his (poor) track record over the last 10 years?  Did you notice that he bought Apple with funds from his Walmart sale that he was crushed on?  Have you noted his 2011 admission that the financial crisis essentially bankrupted him and the bailouts are the only reason he is still the second richest man in America.

Have you noticed that your hero was the largest stock holder in Moodys, Goldman, mortgage brokers and the single largest defender of the practices that caused the financial crisis?  Have you noticed that he owns Burlington Northern railroad, the largest shipper of crude by rail (which has had a bad record of blowing up, killing people and causing severe environmental damage) yet he funds and promotes extreme environmentalist to protest the cheaper and safer alternate crude oil pipelines, a direct competitor of Burlington.

Have you read his (87 year old and probably senile) partner Charlie Munger insane rants about putting Jews back in the ovens?

The man was the greatest investor that has ever lived until about 2005.  Since he has been a doubling deal walking contradiction that promoted the worst practices in the financial markets for personal gain, and has gotten more in governemnt bailouts that any single person to stay a billionaire, and his track record over in the post-crisis period has not been good.  Oh, and he pays for environmentalists to fight pipelines that compete with his railroad that keeps blowing up when shipping crude.

If you want to pick someone that is "not a moron" when it comes to Apple, try Carl Icahn, he as one of its biggest supporters and largest shareholders until 2015 when he walked away from it, which turned out to be an excellent timing.  And he is a billionaire that did not need a government bailout to stay that way and he has actually had a good track record post-crisis.



Other than that, I really have no opinion on this topic. :)

I did a quick Google search and could not find out exactly when Icahn sold all of his shares. It appears most were sold in Q4 2015 and he had liquidated his entire position by March 31, 2016.

Using 10/15/15 as a midway point in Q4 2015, had Icahn held on to his AAPL and reinvested all dividends, he would have made $1,245 for every $1,000 owned - a 24.5% gain in only 16 months' time. (SPY gained 18.7% over the same span.)

What we do know is the date Icahn gleefully announced he was done with AAPL. That was April 28, 2016. Instead of saying with such certainty that AAPL was a crappy investment, if Icahn had put his money back into AAPL, he would have turned every $1,000 invested into $1,453.91 - an enviable 45.4% gain in just 10 months time. (SPY is up 14.5% over the same span.)

Yep, Icahn sure did a great service to you and others who believed on 4/28/16 he was right on about AAPL. He kept you from beating SPY by 300%, saving you from any pesky taxes!
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

forgetful

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #230 on: February 15, 2017, 12:22:25 PM »
I did a quick Google search and could not find out exactly when Icahn sold all of his shares. It appears most were sold in Q4 2015 and he had liquidated his entire position by March 31, 2016.

Using 10/15/15 as a midway point in Q4 2015, had Icahn held on to his AAPL and reinvested all dividends, he would have made $1,245 for every $1,000 owned - a 24.5% gain in only 16 months' time. (SPY gained 18.7% over the same span.)

What we do know is the date Icahn gleefully announced he was done with AAPL. That was April 28, 2016. Instead of saying with such certainty that AAPL was a crappy investment, if Icahn had put his money back into AAPL, he would have turned every $1,000 invested into $1,453.91 - an enviable 45.4% gain in just 10 months time. (SPY is up 14.5% over the same span.)

Yep, Icahn sure did a great service to you and others who believed on 4/28/16 he was right on about AAPL. He kept you from beating SPY by 300%, saving you from any pesky taxes!

Quit using facts.  That isn't fair.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #231 on: February 15, 2017, 04:00:12 PM »
I did a quick Google search and could not find out exactly when Icahn sold all of his shares. It appears most were sold in Q4 2015 and he had liquidated his entire position by March 31, 2016.

Using 10/15/15 as a midway point in Q4 2015, had Icahn held on to his AAPL and reinvested all dividends, he would have made $1,245 for every $1,000 owned - a 24.5% gain in only 16 months' time. (SPY gained 18.7% over the same span.)

What we do know is the date Icahn gleefully announced he was done with AAPL. That was April 28, 2016. Instead of saying with such certainty that AAPL was a crappy investment, if Icahn had put his money back into AAPL, he would have turned every $1,000 invested into $1,453.91 - an enviable 45.4% gain in just 10 months time. (SPY is up 14.5% over the same span.)

Yep, Icahn sure did a great service to you and others who believed on 4/28/16 he was right on about AAPL. He kept you from beating SPY by 300%, saving you from any pesky taxes!

So your argument is Ichan got his arse ripped selling Apple so he is not credible.  But Buffett just traded out of getting his arse ripped in Walmart and into Apple and that makes him credible.  So we have two billionaires sitting on donuts ... got it.

And speaking of Buffett ... his oven salesman Munger is out today saying his philosophy to investing no longer works.  Read below ... is Munger saying he is full of it and no one should use their purchase as a reason to be bullish?  He said he cannot beat the S&P 500 ETF and therefore no longer has a use to society.

Stock pickers beware: Charlie Munger thinks you're in big trouble
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/stock-pickers-beware-charlie-munger-thinks-youre-in-big-trouble.html

Active investment managers have been taking a beating through most of the eight-year bull market run for stocks, and Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger thinks the pain isn't going to stop anytime soon.

Much has been made over the poor performance of stock pickers. Fewer than 1 in 5 beat the S&P 500 in 2016, driving half a trillion dollars of investors cash into indexes, primarily through passively managed exchange-traded funds.

During a talk Wednesday, Berkshire's vice chair had little comfort to offer.

"The index thing is absolute agony for investment professionals … who have almost no chance of beating it," Munger said. "Most people handle that with denial ... I understand — I don't want to think about my own death, either."

Munger said the rise of ETFs has driven fees lower overall, squeezing managers accustomed to generous compensation.

"It's a huge problem, and it makes your generation of money managers have way more difficulties and causes a lot of worry and fretfulness, and I think the people who are worried and fretful are absolutely right," he said. "I would hate to manage a trillion dollars in the big stocks and try to beat the indexes. I don't think I could do it."
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 04:05:05 PM by Yukon Cornelius »

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #232 on: February 15, 2017, 04:13:28 PM »
So your argument is Ichan got his arse ripped selling Apple so he is not credible.

Nope, my argument is that YOU are not credible, Smuggles.

In your great rush to bash Buffett, you held up Icahn as the ideal, as "someone who is not a moron when it comes to Apple."

You said that, and you even provided a nice magazine cover to "prove" that you are the smartest guy in the room. I didn't use the Vulcan mind trick to make you do it.

All I did was present facts. Had Icahn bought AAPL on 4/28/16, when he was bragging about having sold it, he would have realized a 45.4% gain in 10 months, more than triple SPY's gain.

I know that facts sometimes bother you, Smuggles, but I'm going to try to stick with them.
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

GooooMarquette

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #233 on: February 15, 2017, 04:47:18 PM »

If you want to pick someone that is "not a moron" when it comes to Apple, try Carl Icahn, he as one of its biggest supporters and largest shareholders until 2015 when he walked away from it, which turned out to be an excellent timing.  And he is a billionaire that did not need a government bailout to stay that way and he has actually had a good track record post-crisis.


The same Carl Icahn who said Apple would hit $200 a couple years back?   Great call.

;)

brandx

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #234 on: February 15, 2017, 05:07:54 PM »
The same Carl Icahn who said Apple would hit $200 a couple years back?   Great call.

;)

Heisy's kind of guy.

Whatever is on the mind today is etched in stone. Nothing changes and nothing else matters.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #235 on: February 15, 2017, 06:38:05 PM »
Nope, my argument is that YOU are not credible, Smuggles.

In your great rush to bash Buffett, you held up Icahn as the ideal, as "someone who is not a moron when it comes to Apple."

You said that, and you even provided a nice magazine cover to "prove" that you are the smartest guy in the room. I didn't use the Vulcan mind trick to make you do it.

All I did was present facts. Had Icahn bought AAPL on 4/28/16, when he was bragging about having sold it, he would have realized a 45.4% gain in 10 months, more than triple SPY's gain.

I know that facts sometimes bother you, Smuggles, but I'm going to try to stick with them.

What fact?  You admit yourself that you made up numbers? 

My mission is complete!  You've become a mini-smuggles!!!

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #236 on: February 15, 2017, 07:03:28 PM »
What fact?  You admit yourself that you made up numbers? 

My mission is complete!  You've become a mini-smuggles!!!

What numbers did I make up?

Fact:

Had anybody bought AAPL on 4/28/16, the day Icahn bragged about having sold it, they would have realized a 45.4% gain from then until today.

Period.

I think you have lost your mind. Actually, I doubt that's it. You just don't like to admit you're wrong. None of us do ... but you REALLY don't.
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #237 on: February 15, 2017, 08:33:49 PM »
What numbers did I make up?

Fact:

Had anybody bought AAPL on 4/28/16, the day Icahn bragged about having sold it, they would have realized a 45.4% gain from then until today.

Period.

I think you have lost your mind. Actually, I doubt that's it. You just don't like to admit you're wrong. None of us do ... but you REALLY don't.

That's the day is finished selling.  He had a $6 billion position and started months before when the stock was still trading in the $120s.  He also claims he did his Q1 2016 selling "before it started down"  which means around $110.

Truth is we don't know what price he sold but he said he made "within a couple of bucks of $2 billion."

You might like this ... your favorite depends wearing hypocrite did not make the decision to buy it.  Oh he picked Combs and Weschler so that makes it as good as him picking it.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/14/whos-right-about-apple-stock-carl-icahn-or-warren.aspx

When it comes to Berkshire Hathaway's recent purchase of Apple, the only thing we know for certain is that Buffett explained in an email to The Wall Street Journal that one of his investing lieutenants, either Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, made the decision. Buffett has traditionally stayed away from tech companies because he considers the sector too dynamic and unpredictable, but Apple offers many of the characteristics Buffett appreciates in a business.


Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #238 on: February 15, 2017, 09:08:37 PM »
Apple's stock is getting crushed.  Down 25% in the last year to near a new two-year of $93.74.  Here is the timeline that is hurting the stock.

October 5, 2011, Steve Jobs passes away.  The last product he worked on was the iPhone5

September 21, 2012, the iPhone 5 was released.  Stock was at $99 (Nearly $700 pre-split)

September 22, 2012, Steve Jobs influence on Apple products was over.  The Tim Cook era really started.

April 29, 2016 (today), Apple stock is $93.74, below the iPhone5 release.

My issue was you started a post and whined about AAPL when it was down. $93.74, less than 10 months ago. Your went on and on about how Cook was awful and the stock had no hope - stick a fork in it.

It was stupid, and you selected a downturn in the stock to make your rant.

It was a shameful, stupid rant... and you've continued to hang onto it. Monty Python style. Amazing.

Again, I have had no position in AAPL at any time we've been speaking of. You talked me out of it. Thanks, bud. For losing me millions.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #239 on: February 15, 2017, 09:11:25 PM »
I bought late but made some big scratch.  Dividend stock too.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #240 on: February 15, 2017, 09:45:30 PM »
That's the day is finished selling.  He had a $6 billion position and started months before when the stock was still trading in the $120s.  He also claims he did his Q1 2016 selling "before it started down"  which means around $110.

Truth is we don't know what price he sold but he said he made "within a couple of bucks of $2 billion."

You might like this ... your favorite depends wearing hypocrite did not make the decision to buy it.  Oh he picked Combs and Weschler so that makes it as good as him picking it.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/14/whos-right-about-apple-stock-carl-icahn-or-warren.aspx

When it comes to Berkshire Hathaway's recent purchase of Apple, the only thing we know for certain is that Buffett explained in an email to The Wall Street Journal that one of his investing lieutenants, either Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, made the decision. Buffett has traditionally stayed away from tech companies because he considers the sector too dynamic and unpredictable, but Apple offers many of the characteristics Buffett appreciates in a business.

Much of that actually is factual, Smuggles. That's a nice departure for you.

But is the following a fact or not ...

On April 28, 2016, Carl Icahn told everybody who would listen that he sold his entire Apple stake. If, instead of making that grand proclamation, he had simply bought AAPL again, he would have made a 45.4% gain from that date to now?

Is that a fact or not?

Yes, Icahn sold AAPL earlier and he had made plenty of money on it. I'm not disputing that. But he waited until 4/28/16 to tell the world, and I'm guessing that influenced his followers, guys like you. So those who follow his every breath also chose not to invest in AAPL, and they lost out on the 45.4% gain, too.

That's all I'm saying. Stop moving the goalposts.

Of course, I will say a little more now ...

Jay Bee is right! You were big-time down on AAPL $40+ per share ago! Congratulation!! The only way you could look like less of an authority on this subject would have been if you had shorted it. Please tell me you didn't do that!

Hey, it happens, Smuggles. You made a call, you put yourself out there, and you were wrong.

Go ahead, say it with me ...

"I"

You can do it ...

"was"

Come on, Smuggles, for once show a little honesty and humility ...

"wrong."

Yay!
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #241 on: February 15, 2017, 11:51:56 PM »
Much of that actually is factual, Smuggles. That's a nice departure for you.

But is the following a fact or not ...

On April 28, 2016, Carl Icahn told everybody who would listen that he sold his entire Apple stake. If, instead of making that grand proclamation, he had simply bought AAPL again, he would have made a 45.4% gain from that date to now?

Is that a fact or not?

Yes, Icahn sold AAPL earlier and he had made plenty of money on it. I'm not disputing that. But he waited until 4/28/16 to tell the world, and I'm guessing that influenced his followers, guys like you. So those who follow his every breath also chose not to invest in AAPL, and they lost out on the 45.4% gain, too.

That's all I'm saying. Stop moving the goalposts.

Of course, I will say a little more now ...

Jay Bee is right! You were big-time down on AAPL $40+ per share ago! Congratulation!! The only way you could look like less of an authority on this subject would have been if you had shorted it. Please tell me you didn't do that!

Hey, it happens, Smuggles. You made a call, you put yourself out there, and you were wrong.

Go ahead, say it with me ...

"I"

You can do it ...

"was"

Come on, Smuggles, for once show a little honesty and humility ...

"wrong."

Yay!

He mentioned it on April 28 because he was on Fast Money on CNBC that day and Scott Wapner asked him about it.  That was not his intention for going on,.  Wapner asked and he answered.  Again at that point he had been out of Apple for some time.

If he did not say it on April 28, it would have been public anyway when he filed his 13F on May 15.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #242 on: February 15, 2017, 11:55:17 PM »
My issue was you started a post and whined about AAPL when it was down. $93.74, less than 10 months ago. Your went on and on about how Cook was awful and the stock had no hope - stick a fork in it.

It was stupid, and you selected a downturn in the stock to make your rant.

It was a shameful, stupid rant... and you've continued to hang onto it. Monty Python style. Amazing.

Again, I have had no position in AAPL at any time we've been speaking of. You talked me out of it. Thanks, bud. For losing me millions.

Only one reason I talked you out of it ... the arguments made sense.  They still do.

Yes it rallied 45% but I'm not a believer.  I need to see a real product from Cook to reconsider, not a phone with a little more memory and a slightly faster processor. 

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #243 on: February 16, 2017, 09:00:42 AM »
He mentioned it on April 28 because he was on Fast Money on CNBC that day and Scott Wapner asked him about it.  That was not his intention for going on,.  Wapner asked and he answered.  Again at that point he had been out of Apple for some time.

If he did not say it on April 28, it would have been public anyway when he filed his 13F on May 15.

You couldn't do it.

You couldn't admit that my math was perfect. You couldn't admit that those who bought on April 28 instead of listening to Icahn would be 45.4% richer. And, mostly, you couldn't admit that you were dead wrong when you called Apple stock broken when it was trading under $95.

I can't say I'm surprised, but, to quote your favorite person in the world, "Sad."
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

Tortuga94

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #244 on: February 16, 2017, 09:51:17 AM »
I'm not going to go back through ten pages of posts, but it sounds like your reason for not liking Apple is completely different from Icahn's. You mention their lack of innovation and their need to do something different than just rely on the iphone and the different iterations of it. Icahn's concerns are more about the competition in China and the hard time Apple has had gaining market share there, not because of their need for a new product.

While I do understand your argument, I don't agree with it. Apple doesn't have to anything different than what they're doing now. They have an extremely loyal client base and they make a product that people view as an essential part of their daily lives. Everyone I know, uses their phones to do just about everything and people are either iOS or android people and are very hesitant to switch. I personally am an android person, I have a Samsung phone and have never owned an apple product besides an Ipod. However, as a stock I think Apple is a great long-term holding because they will continue to generate tons and tons of cash, they have an amazingly solid balance sheet and will just buy their growth if they can't develop a revolutionary product on their own.

The reality is that because how the S&P 500 is constructed the performance of the index is going to be tied closely to that of Apple as it is the largest company in the index. You will have times of outperformance and times of underperformance but I do agree that over the long-term they will likely be very close, but if you're not concerned with performance relative to the index, you'll be able to sleep well at night owning Apple stock.

Badgerhater

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #245 on: February 16, 2017, 10:00:47 AM »
My thought on Apple, which is in the $130s today is that it will dip to $95 before it reach $180.  It won't crash, but it will bob around in a range because it is a cash cow, but it won't launch upward until it finds the next big thing.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #246 on: February 16, 2017, 11:57:39 AM »
My thought on Apple, which is in the $130s today is that it will dip to $95 before it reach $180.  It won't crash, but it will bob around in a range because it is a cash cow, but it won't launch upward until it finds the next big thing.

I'm inclined to agree with you, or at least move toward your thesis here ... unless Smuggles' boy Comrade Twitler manages to push through some kind of repatriation tax holiday. If AAPL can bring back its enormous cash stash without facing severe penalties, all bets are off. It could go to $280 before it reaches $95.
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

Badgerhater

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #247 on: February 16, 2017, 12:04:27 PM »
I'm inclined to agree with you, or at least move toward your thesis here ... unless Smuggles' boy Comrade Twitler manages to push through some kind of repatriation tax holiday. If AAPL can bring back its enormous cash stash without facing severe penalties, all bets are off. It could go to $280 before it reaches $95.

Good point.  Events can overtake trends.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #248 on: February 16, 2017, 06:10:58 PM »
I'm inclined to agree with you, or at least move toward your thesis here ... unless Smuggles' boy Comrade Twitler manages to push through some kind of repatriation tax holiday. If AAPL can bring back its enormous cash stash without facing severe penalties, all bets are off. It could go to $280 before it reaches $95.

The last tax holiday was 2004, had no effect on stock prices.

And it should not.  Why?  Because their money is already in a New York Bank (account name "Apple foreign").  When the tax holiday happens, it move to another account in a New York Bank ("Apple Domestic").  Other than that nothing else changes.

And the fact that the money is "foreign" does not prevent Apple in any way in doing what they want with it.  They can, and have borrowed against it to accomplish their goals.  And they can borrow in Europe at negative yields.


Where the tax holiday really matters is for mid-cap to small-cap companies that do not the economies of scale that Apple has.

And no it does not go to $280 ... that is almost a trillion dollar increase in its market cap.  How does bring home a $100 or $200 billion increase its value by 5x to 10x that value?

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #249 on: February 16, 2017, 09:27:23 PM »
The last tax holiday was 2004, had no effect on stock prices.

And it should not.  Why?  Because their money is already in a New York Bank (account name "Apple foreign").  When the tax holiday happens, it move to another account in a New York Bank ("Apple Domestic").  Other than that nothing else changes.

And the fact that the money is "foreign" does not prevent Apple in any way in doing what they want with it.  They can, and have borrowed against it to accomplish their goals.  And they can borrow in Europe at negative yields.


Where the tax holiday really matters is for mid-cap to small-cap companies that do not the economies of scale that Apple has.

And no it does not go to $280 ... that is almost a trillion dollar increase in its market cap.  How does bring home a $100 or $200 billion increase its value by 5x to 10x that value?

I think I'm done here. I mean, there is no way AAPL can double from here because stocks never double ... and AAPL certainly never doubles.

Hey man, you're the expert ... as you so clearly proved with your "do not buy AAPL" call when it was trading under 95. Still can't admit you were wrong, either. That's my Smuggles!

See ya in the funny papers.
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski