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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 54175 times)

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #200 on: February 01, 2017, 04:45:18 PM »
I am not entering the apple stock good/bad argument.  Not my area, I can not offer any accurate insight. 

But you're wrong on claiming iphone 5 was a "big idea" and the iPhone 6 was not.  Either they are both "big ideas" or neither are, which is a matter of opinion.  But they both fit in the same box.

No, the big idea was the iPhone and by the 5 it was fully exploited.  All the 6 offered was a different size, you cannot support a $630 billion market cap in different phone sizes.  You need something new.  That means VR, cars, TVs and Apple has nothing on these fronts.

Uh ... no ... unless you are using some of your comrade's alternative facts. Smuggles.

I just plugged the numbers into the investment calculator at longrundata.com using a start date of 1/31/13 and an end date of 1/31/17 - in other words, the last 4 years.

$1,000 invested in AAPL on 1/31/13 was worth $2,029.42 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 19.34% and a total gain of 103%.

$1,000 invested in SPY on 1/31/13 was worth $1,648.17 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 13.30% and a total gain of 65%.

So unless you are in a universe in which 65% is better than 103% and 13% is better than 19%, you are mistaken.

Oh, and that doesn't even count today's big jump for AAPL. If we run the numbers again tomorrow using 2/1 dates instead of 1/31 dates, AAPL's outperformance will be even more sizable.

Just for giggles and snorts, I also ran the numbers for 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year and 15-year periods. AAPL beat SPY in every time period, usually by a considerable margin.

I'm sure you could cherry-pick dates and find some period in which SPY beat AAPL, but that's not the point here, right? You sounded very sure of yourself - some might even say smug - with your 4-year declaration.

Going forward? Who really knows? You claim to, but I'm guessing that 1, 3 and 5 years ago you were making similar claims about SPY being a lock to beat AAPL going forward.

Smuggles, I'm not even a huge AAPL bull. I only own about 100 shares. I'm a buy-and-hold guy who may never sell them but very well might not buy any more (except via dripping).

I simply prefer facts to silly statements that are presented as facts but aren't facts at all.

#actualfacts

Why did you pick the low to measure this?  September 21, 2012 AAPL was $100.  January 31, 2013 it was $60.  You ignored the decline.

And Again the 5 was the last product that Jobs worked on.  While Cook started in October 2011, his legacy really starts when the last Jobs product was released ... September 21, 2012 and iPhone 5.

AAPL all-time high was $132 May 2015 the S&P 500 is 15% higher and AAPL is still 5% below this level.

So yes, pick the low of anything, even gold, and it beats the S&P500

Damn it. Heisy keeps losing us $$

AAPL up another 6%+ today to a close of $128.79. Headlines about how great the 7 Plus is... #SizeMatters


The market is begging you with a high price to book your profits and take Ms Jay Bee a week long bender with the money.  Instead you seem to be insisting you hold on until AAPL shows it has no more new ideas and you run these gains down your leg.

« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 04:48:08 PM by Yukon Cornelius »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #201 on: February 01, 2017, 05:37:13 PM »
For you Jay Bee


MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #202 on: February 01, 2017, 09:18:47 PM »

Why did you pick the low to measure this?  September 21, 2012 AAPL was $100.  January 31, 2013 it was $60.  You ignored the decline.

Um ... I believe your exact quote was "that has been the case the last four years."

So, stupid me, I went back four years from the day you said that and reported the facts. Shame on me. I should have searched for a low that would have fit your narrative instead of simply doing what you suggested.

But the date you now are suggesting is classic cherry-picking.

AAPL has beaten SPY over the last 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year and 15-year periods.

But go ahead, Smuggles, take Comrade Twitler's advice about the Iraq War and declare victory.

#actualfacts.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #203 on: February 01, 2017, 09:30:03 PM »
You need to consider two things (not sure longrundata.com does):

1) Transactions cost.  It is often cheaper to purchase an index than it is to purchase one stock.  These costs can eat into your total return.

2) Risk.  True evaluation of stock performance accounts for risk, i.e., focusing on a risk-adjusted return (e.g., Sharpe Ratio).

1. If you are a buy-and-hold investor, as I am, with a stock you are making one purchase. My commission on AAPL was $9. Even if I sell it someday, that's a total of $18. Period.

Even though VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) has a microscopic .05% expense ratio, that's $5 every year. If you hold it for even 4 years, that's $20. Every year you hold it after that, it's more expensive than if you had bought one stock from a discount brokerage. And in my Vanguard account (which is not where I hold AAPL), my commissions are only $2, so that's cheaper than holding VOO for only a few months.

2. I agree that a risk-averse person probably should not own individual stocks. If one is really, really freaked out by risk, one probably shouldn't even own a mutual fund - which, after all, are just a collection of stocks.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #204 on: February 02, 2017, 06:43:06 AM »
The spikes are new phone releases.  So Q1 and Q2 will fall dramatically.  As noted in a post on the previous page, smooth out the new release speikes and iPhones have negative growth since 2014.

And again, the new peak was helped by Samsung phones blowing up in Q4.  Oh, and Samsung sells more phones than Apple, even after the Note 7 debacle.

Why is the stock at an 18 month high?  The hope that Apple has something else.  Today's hope is it will be services and not a new product (and even some vague talk that will start producing TV shows like Amazon and Netflix).  None of this is concrete, just hope talk.


MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #205 on: February 02, 2017, 09:06:57 AM »
OK.

And yet AAPL has beaten SPY in 1-, 3-, 5-, 10- and 15-year periods. In fact, it has beaten SPY handily over most of those periods. I wish I had owned it for 15 years instead of 1.5 years!

But you know that AAPL will lag from here on out. Just as you knew it 5 years ago, I'm sure.

#actualfacts.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

forgetful

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #206 on: February 02, 2017, 11:22:06 AM »
The spikes are new phone releases.  So Q1 and Q2 will fall dramatically.  As noted in a post on the previous page, smooth out the new release speikes and iPhones have negative growth since 2014.


You either love #alternativefacts, or really suck at math.

2015 was their all time high.  So they couldn't have seen negative growth since 2014, as every Q of 2015 was a year over year high compared to 2014.

Now, it would be correct to say that total sales in 2016 were down compared to 2015, but year over year sales for 2017 Q1 are an all time high again.  So none of what you say is actually true. 

But looking at this chart refutes another one of your claims.  You claim the iPhone5 was a "big idea" and the iPhone6 was not.  iPhone 5 was released in Q4 2012, iPhone 6 in Q4 2014.  Q1 2013 shows only about a 25% increase in sales (year over year) due to the Q4 iPhone5 release, but Q1 2016 shows a 40% increase in sales.  Seems like iPhone 6 was a bigger deal.

Its sad, if you do this for a living, that my instincts on the iPhone 5 vs. iPhone 6 is more accurate than your professional research.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #207 on: February 02, 2017, 07:11:05 PM »
OK.
And yet AAPL has beaten SPY in 1-, 3-, 5-, 10- and 15-year periods. In fact, it has beaten SPY handily over most of those periods. I wish I had owned it for 15 years instead of 1.5 years!
But you know that AAPL will lag from here on out. Just as you knew it 5 years ago, I'm sure.
#actualfacts.

The chart below is the ratio of Apple's stock price to the S&P 500 Index.  It is a total return chart so dividends are included.  Highlighted on the chart are important milestones in blue and peaks and troughs of the ratio in black.

To be clear, when the ratio is rising Apple is beating the overall market.  When it is falling it is lagging the overall market.

The ratio peaked three days before the release of the iPhone5 (September 18, 2012).  That was the end of Apple being a relentless out-performer (ratio always going up).  Or, as I have said before, the market thinks Apple as an innovator stopped with the release of the iPhone5 as the smart phone was completely developed by that release (and LTE compatible).  This was the last product Steve Jobs worked on.

If you really believe that the introduction of new sizes with the iPhone6 and its different sizes was a game changer, see the release dates on the ratio chart.  The ratio went up and down after the 6 and was still below the iPhone6 release date just two weeks ago. 

This means if you bought Apple's stock the day the iPhone6 was released believing the new sizes were game changers, the market has not validated this belief.  In other words, the iPhone6 and new sizes has not re-established the ratio's relentless uptrend seen before 2012.

Since September 21, 2012 the ratio of Apple's stock has moved sideways meaning it is moving in-line with the overall market.  Yes it has its periods where the ratio rises, like now, and when it falls.  Restated, Apple is a trading vehicle that is bought and sold.  Since it is no longer an innovator, the ratio will continue sideways to lower.  Apple is still viable as a utility, you buy a new phone when your old phone breaks.

Apple can prove me wrong at anytime.  Invent something that makes the market think it is the innovator it was when Steve Jobs ran it.  I'd bet it cannot.

« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 07:31:30 PM by Yukon Cornelius »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #208 on: February 02, 2017, 07:15:48 PM »
Below I fixed the post of my advice for Jay Bee


MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #209 on: February 02, 2017, 10:25:52 PM »
The chart below is the ratio of Apple's stock price to the S&P 500 Index.  It is a total return chart so dividends are included.  Highlighted on the chart are important milestones in blue and peaks and troughs of the ratio in black.

To be clear, when the ratio is rising Apple is beating the overall market.  When it is falling it is lagging the overall market.

The ratio peaked three days before the release of the iPhone5 (September 18, 2012).  That was the end of Apple being a relentless out-performer (ratio always going up).  Or, as I have said before, the market thinks Apple as an innovator stopped with the release of the iPhone5 as the smart phone was completely developed by that release (and LTE compatible).  This was the last product Steve Jobs worked on.

If you really believe that the introduction of new sizes with the iPhone6 and its different sizes was a game changer, see the release dates on the ratio chart.  The ratio went up and down after the 6 and was still below the iPhone6 release date just two weeks ago. 

This means if you bought Apple's stock the day the iPhone6 was released believing the new sizes were game changers, the market has not validated this belief.  In other words, the iPhone6 and new sizes has not re-established the ratio's relentless uptrend seen before 2012.

Since September 21, 2012 the ratio of Apple's stock has moved sideways meaning it is moving in-line with the overall market.  Yes it has its periods where the ratio rises, like now, and when it falls.  Restated, Apple is a trading vehicle that is bought and sold.  Since it is no longer an innovator, the ratio will continue sideways to lower.  Apple is still viable as a utility, you buy a new phone when your old phone breaks.

Apple can prove me wrong at anytime.  Invent something that makes the market think it is the innovator it was when Steve Jobs ran it.  I'd bet it cannot.



OK, Smuggles. You have altered your point so it isn't erroneous but it still isn't really confirmation of anything. You also have made a prediction that only time will tell is accurate or not.

So as of right now, nothing to see here. Except some nice profits for those who bought AAPL on the pullback.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #210 on: February 03, 2017, 06:27:05 AM »
OK, Smuggles. You have altered your point so it isn't erroneous but it still isn't really confirmation of anything. You also have made a prediction that only time will tell is accurate or not.

So as of right now, nothing to see here. Except some nice profits for those who bought AAPL on the pullback.

Did not alter my point.  May not have articulated it well at times but never altered.

nothing to see here. Except some nice profits for those who bought AAPL on the pullback.

Exactly, it a trading vehicle, like bean futures that you trade in and out of.  Or as they say on Wall Street, rent it from time to time, but don't own it.


MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #211 on: February 03, 2017, 08:12:14 AM »
Did not alter my point.  May not have articulated it well at times but never altered.

nothing to see here. Except some nice profits for those who bought AAPL on the pullback.

Exactly, it a trading vehicle, like bean futures that you trade in and out of.  Or as they say on Wall Street, rent it from time to time, but don't own it.

AAPL just announced it's going big-time into India, a largely untapped, cellphone-crazy market with 1 billion people. It would seem there are plenty of growth opportunities ahead.

I'll leave my 100 shares alone and enjoy the ride. You trade in and out and have fun. We can both be happy.

The main difference between us - not just concerning AAPL but most things - is that I don't make bold statements in which I declare absolute certainty about subjects.

But that's why you're Smuggles and I'm not!
« Last Edit: February 03, 2017, 08:14:14 AM by MU82 »
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #212 on: February 03, 2017, 09:21:32 AM »
AAPL just announced it's going big-time into India, a largely untapped, cellphone-crazy market with 1 billion people. It would seem there are plenty of growth opportunities ahead.

I'll leave my 100 shares alone and enjoy the ride. You trade in and out and have fun. We can both be happy.

The main difference between us - not just concerning AAPL but most things - is that I don't make bold statements in which I declare absolute certainty about subjects.

But that's why you're Smuggles and I'm not!

They announced they are going to manufacture phones in India, no change in their marketing efforts in the country.


Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #213 on: February 07, 2017, 08:03:48 PM »
AAPL continues to be pummeled.. down.. er.. up to $131.53 at close today. Thanks a lot, Heisy. At ~$90 you were warning at how horrible it would perform.

Badgerhater

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #214 on: February 08, 2017, 01:00:49 PM »
I've enjoyed buying APPL in the $90s and selling in the $130s.  Done that several times.

brandx

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #215 on: February 08, 2017, 01:44:08 PM »
I've enjoyed buying APPL in the $90s and selling in the $130s.  Done that several times.

Huh??

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #216 on: February 08, 2017, 03:16:30 PM »
I've enjoyed buying APPL in the $90s and selling in the $130s.  Done that several times.

Correct! 

As the ratio chart above shows, AAPL is no longer a relentless out-performer.  It has it periods and then goes away.

It is no longer a long-term investment as of September 2012.  It is a trading vehicle to be bought and sold.

Now that it is above $131, Wall Street really wants you to be rich.  So sell it and take your profits and move on to something else. 

(Again, move on to something else.  All investments are competing investments.  The "do nothing" option is to but the overall market via a broad-based ETF, not 0% yielding cash)
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 03:18:39 PM by Yukon Cornelius »

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #217 on: February 13, 2017, 10:06:42 AM »
WSJ article this morning touting the performance of AAPL & the building excitement for its next phone.

Goldman Sachs put out a price target of $150 today

Stock is at $133.53 at the moment

Thanks a lot, Yukon

mu03eng

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #218 on: February 13, 2017, 10:21:22 AM »
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #219 on: February 13, 2017, 12:55:51 PM »


Well, unless AAPL is on a rocket ship to the stars- and it might be - it probably will come back down to earth, at least somewhat, and Smuggles can tell us how right he was again.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

brandx

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #220 on: February 13, 2017, 04:22:25 PM »
WSJ article this morning touting the performance of AAPL & the building excitement for its next phone.

Goldman Sachs put out a price target of $150 today

Stock is at $133.53 at the moment

Thanks a lot, Yukon

Don't forget that Heisy thinks you should dump Disney as well.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #221 on: February 13, 2017, 07:59:16 PM »
WSJ article this morning touting the performance of AAPL & the building excitement for its next phone.

Goldman Sachs put out a price target of $150 today

Stock is at $133.53 at the moment

Thanks a lot, Yukon

I've been trading for over 30 years and when the "town crier" emerges, it is one of the most dangerous things to profits,.  Because the town crier is too emotionally invested in his position to see otherwise.

What is the town crier?  Someone that is so emotionally invested in a position that when it moves in their favor, they cannot contain themselves so they start "crying out" every new high.  This is Jay Bee crying out every time AAPL moves another dollar is his favor.

The problem is he is blinded.  He will lose a substantial sum of his money.  Not if, only when.

If you worked for me as one of my traders, I would force you to sell now and try something that you don't have the emotional investment in.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #222 on: February 13, 2017, 08:10:37 PM »
Of course, you don't work for me because their are no more human traders left.  Only computers.  I now have "data scientists" working for me instead of traders.

And computers, in the end are fairly stupid and overdo everything.  Knowing how to play off them is the key to successful trading.

Welcome to the new fundamentals that drive investing.  These same "fundamentals" almost brought down the system in 2008 (actually they did and it was bailed out, but that is another story for another day).

----------------------------------
MIT Technology Review
February 7, 2017
As Goldman Embraces Automation, Even the Masters of the Universe Are Threatened
Software that works on Wall Street is changing how business is done and who profits from it.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603431/as-goldman-embraces-automation-even-the-masters-of-the-universe-are-threatened/

At its height back in 2000, the U.S. cash equities trading desk at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters employed 600 traders, buying and selling stock on the orders of the investment bank’s large clients. Today there are just two equity traders left.

Automated trading programs have taken over the rest of the work, supported by 200 computer engineers. Marty Chavez, the company’s deputy chief financial officer and former chief information officer, explained all this to attendees at a symposium on computing’s impact on economic activity held by Harvard’s Institute for Applied Computational Science last month.

The experience of its New York traders is just one early example of a transformation of Goldman Sachs, and increasingly other Wall Street firms, that began with the rise in computerized trading, but has accelerated over the past five years, moving into more fields of finance that humans once dominated. Chavez, who will become chief financial officer in April, says areas of trading like currencies and even parts of business lines like investment banking are moving in the same automated direction that equities have already traveled.

----------
By Luc Lacroix  /  AFP, NEW YORK
Febraury 12, 2017
Algorithms become the most dominant players on Wall Street

Today, algorithms are the dominant force in markets, playing a role in the vast majority of securities transactions. “I would say it is 90 percent algorithmic, but there is not a great way to quantify that,” said Valerie Bogard, an equity analyst at Tabb Group, a research and consulting firm. “Even though [people] may send an order through a sales desk, it is possible it is going through an algo.” Algorithmic trades vary in complexity and can be carried out with minimal human involvement once they are set up. For example, the branding and technology company T3 has created a robotic, or “bot,” system that reads US President Donald Trump’s Twitter feed and implements stock trades if it determines based on a quickfire reading that there will likely be a negative impact on a company’s shares.  Other firms, such as QuantCube Technology, use algorithms to make trades following analysis of so-called “Big Data.”
« Last Edit: February 13, 2017, 08:16:41 PM by Yukon Cornelius »

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #223 on: February 13, 2017, 09:37:19 PM »
I've been trading for over 30 years and when the "town crier" emerges, it is one of the most dangerous things to profits,.  Because the town crier is too emotionally invested in his position to see otherwise.

What is the town crier?  Someone that is so emotionally invested in a position that when it moves in their favor, they cannot contain themselves so they start "crying out" every new high.  This is Jay Bee crying out every time AAPL moves another dollar is his favor.

The problem is he is blinded.  He will lose a substantial sum of his money.  Not if, only when.


I don't know Jay Bee's investing philosophy, so I'll speak for myself.

I bought my fairly small AAPL position at about $95. When it went down below $90, I didn't lose a cent ... because I did not sell at the bottom. It's now at $133. If it goes down to, say, $110, I won't have lost a cent. Not only will I not be selling it, but even if I did sell it, I bought it at $95 in the first place.

I figure I will hold AAPL for 20 years, and I will reinvest the dividends. The price will go up and it will go down some. And it will go up more and it will go down some. And it will go up still more and it will go down some. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Now, I could try to guess the tops and sell, and then try to guess the bottoms and buy. Or I could just hold and reap the rewards long-term.

This is pretty much how I manage my entire portfolio. I am a very reluctant seller, and a very long-term owner of great companies.

I don't try to outsmart the market. I know you do, and that's cool, Smuggles. I don't begrudge you your billions, as long as you don't begrudge me my mere millions.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

brandx

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #224 on: February 13, 2017, 10:14:06 PM »
Funny. The higher the price goes, the more Heisy argues that he was right.

Amazing!

JB has to be an idiot for making these huge profits.