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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 54553 times)

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #175 on: January 15, 2017, 07:24:40 PM »
I did not know any of that. Interesting!

S&P classifications are based on an algorithm meaning they are based on HISTORY.  The market discounts the FUTURE.  So the market thinks KO and JNJ are still growth stocks even though their recent history suggests otherwise.

Conversely, AAPL is a very rich value stock.  I take that to mean the market has NEARLY given up on AAPL continuing to be a growth stock and it MOSTLY convinced it is a value stock. (This is why it has underperformed since September 2012.  In market parlance, AAPL multiples have been contracting from growth to value.)

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #176 on: January 17, 2017, 02:13:11 PM »
Smuggles, you do realize that if your boy Comrade Twitler succeeds in letting big companies bring their cash back to the U.S. without severe (or any) penalties, it will likely push AAPL to new highs and then some, right?
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #177 on: January 17, 2017, 05:17:27 PM »
Smuggles, you do realize that if your boy Comrade Twitler succeeds in letting big companies bring their cash back to the U.S. without severe (or any) penalties, it will likely push AAPL to new highs and then some, right?

It will have little to no effect on the stock price (either way).  See the 2004 version Bush did, it too had no effect on stock prices.

Question, where is that money now?  Answer, in a NY bank.  If the money is allowed back in the US, where does it go?  Answer, a NY bank.  Instead of "Apple Europe" the account is called "Apple US" and beyond that nothing really changes.

What will they do with that money once freed in the US?  Nothing different than they are now.  They have borrowed against to do whatever that wanted to now.

Where it does matter is smaller companies that deal overseas that do not have the flexibility of a fortune 500 company.

Thought for you ... if you really believe that their is $2+ trillion trapped overseas, in foreign banks, and if we have a tax holiday and that money comes back to the US and causes US stocks to soar (presumably as they use it to buy back stock) do you also believe that foreign banking systems will collapse as $2+ trillion flees to the US?  Do you also believe the dollar will soar (foreign currencies will  decline).  Can't have it both ways.  If it affects stocks, it hurts something else.  This is largely zero-sum which is why it does noit effect stock prices (like 2004).
« Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 05:19:08 PM by Yukon Cornelius »

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #178 on: January 17, 2017, 10:00:16 PM »
It's about investor sentiment, Smuggles. And I disagree with you. Investors will feel good about AAPL's future and therefore share prices will rise.

Maybe we'll get the chance to see if Comrade Twitler can make Apple great again.

"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #179 on: January 18, 2017, 07:39:37 AM »
It's about investor sentiment, Smuggles. And I disagree with you. Investors will feel good about AAPL's future and therefore share prices will rise.

Maybe we'll get the chance to see if Comrade Twitler can make Apple great again.

He hates Apple and uses a Samsung.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #180 on: January 18, 2017, 08:25:08 AM »
He hates Apple and uses a Samsung.

Actually, that is a good point.

If it's not all about Comrade Twitler, it sucks, so I take it back and I'm considering selling my AAPL today.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

g0lden3agle

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Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #183 on: January 30, 2017, 07:11:18 AM »
AAPL at $121.95. Dude cost us a lot of money.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #184 on: January 30, 2017, 09:33:19 AM »
AAPL at $121.95. Dude cost us a lot of money.

Against my better judgment I will respond to this post. 

On a relative (to the S&P 500) basis, the stock peaked the day the iPhone5 was released on September 21, 2012.  This was the last product Steve Jobs worked on (he died in October 2011).

If the stock had kept pace with the market since that date, it would be about $177 today, not $122.  It has been an awful performer.  Why, because the iPhone5 was Apple's last trick.  That is the clear message of the market.  Or, show me a "big" idea.  They don't have one.

Here is the problem ... Apple is a phone company.  Next is iPad and then the Mac
(sorry about the size of the graphic)



81% of its revenues is iPhones, iPads and Macs.  Everything else does not matter.  (In fact iPads may not matter.)  Repeat, they are a three product company.  So, watches, TV, air-pods, iTunes and the rest simply do not matter.

The problem as shown here is all three of these products have negative growth.

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-q4-2016-earnings-2016-10

Let me say it bluntly, Apple is out of "big" ideas.  The last "big" idea was the iPhone5, which is also the last product Jobs worked on.  Everything since has been a marginal upgrade.  Apple is now a utility, they get a sale because someone's phone breaks and they buy a new one.  So they trade like a utility and therefore, badly lag the overall market.


The only way Jay Bee statement is true is he yet another rapid fire trader/speculator and short-term speculated correctly.  Congrats to Jay Bee, I'm sure you are very wealthy and look forward to the Jay Bee Annex to the AL.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 09:37:41 AM by Yukon Cornelius »

g0lden3agle

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #185 on: January 31, 2017, 09:17:31 AM »
Curious, what made the iPhone 5 more "big idea" than the iPhone 6?

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #186 on: January 31, 2017, 12:22:07 PM »
Curious, what made the iPhone 5 more "big idea" than the iPhone 6?

That was it for the innovation of this product ... the 5s, 6, 6S and now 7 are the same thing with a faster processor and more memory.

No reason to sleep on the sidewalk for two days to get the new iPhone, it just a slightly faster version of the previous iPhone.  Get it when your current phone breaks.

g0lden3agle

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #187 on: January 31, 2017, 01:09:04 PM »
That was it for the innovation of this product ... the 5s, 6, 6S and now 7 are the same thing with a faster processor and more memory.

No reason to sleep on the sidewalk for two days to get the new iPhone, it just a slightly faster version of the previous iPhone.  Get it when your current phone breaks.

I guess I'm missing how the 5 wasn't the same thing as the 4s if the 6 is the same thing as the 5.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #188 on: January 31, 2017, 03:21:34 PM »
I guess I'm missing how the 5 wasn't the same thing as the 4s if the 6 is the same thing as the 5.

The 5 was a redesign from the 4S.  It was also the first full LTE phone.

The 7 is essentially the same phone, just faster.  Yes the 7 comes in different sizes but, again, Apple is a $500 billion company and a different sizes alone is not going to support it.

Apple needs a whole new product that makes everyone stop what they are doing and go out and get it.  They had that with the MAC, iPod, iPhone and iPad.  Amazing they had 4 such products.  But without another such product the stock is too high. 

See many of the comments on previous pages, they admit they don't have anything but "hope" they will pull a rabbit out of their hat.  Good luck with that.

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #189 on: January 31, 2017, 04:05:24 PM »
The 5 was a redesign from the 4S.  It was also the first full LTE phone.

The 7 is essentially the same phone, just faster.  Yes the 7 comes in different sizes but, again, Apple is a $500 billion company and a different sizes alone is not going to support it.

Apple needs a whole new product that makes everyone stop what they are doing and go out and get it.  They had that with the MAC, iPod, iPhone and iPad.  Amazing they had 4 such products.  But without another such product the stock is too high. 

See many of the comments on previous pages, they admit they don't have anything but "hope" they will pull a rabbit out of their hat.  Good luck with that.

Different sizes helped this quarter, bud...

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #190 on: January 31, 2017, 05:09:20 PM »
Killed earnings. As Smuggles' orange boy would say, BIG TIME.

I guess the only thing wrong with Apple stock is that I don't own enough of it!!
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

forgetful

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #191 on: January 31, 2017, 09:58:45 PM »
Curious, what made the iPhone 5 more "big idea" than the iPhone 6?

Mainly because the latter doesn't fit his agenda.  The iphone 5 was considered a disappointment by man, which led to many consumers skipping the 5 and waiting for the 6. 

Trying to claim the 5 was a "big idea" and the 6 wasn't is inane.  They were both incremental advancements on their technology and platform.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #192 on: February 01, 2017, 06:52:16 AM »
Mainly because the latter doesn't fit his agenda.  The iphone 5 was considered a disappointment by man, which led to many consumers skipping the 5 and waiting for the 6. 

Trying to claim the 5 was a "big idea" and the 6 wasn't is inane.  They were both incremental advancements on their technology and platform.

No ...

By the 5 and LTE the product was fully developed.  Since the only thing they have offered is faster processors and different sizes.  That is why phone sales are merely replacements, no new people are coming in. 

I'll amend that last statement ... they did get new customers in Q4 because Samsung's Note 7 phones caught fire.  So unless another Samsung phone blows up this quarter, they are going back to waiting for someone's phone to break to get another sale.  See their guidance ... they downgraded the first quarter because the replacement cycle and new sales (again thanks to competitors phones exploding) were higher in Q4, so Apple warned that Q1 will not be as good.

Again, if this company was everything you think, it would be $177 today not $125. 

Sell Apple buy the S&P 500 ETF and make a lot more money, that has been the case the last four years and will continue to be the case going forward.  And that has been my argument all along, they under-perform the broad market.

reinko

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« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 07:18:37 AM by reinko »

forgetful

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #194 on: February 01, 2017, 07:57:26 AM »
No ...

By the 5 and LTE the product was fully developed.  Since the only thing they have offered is faster processors and different sizes.  That is why phone sales are merely replacements, no new people are coming in. 

I'll amend that last statement ... they did get new customers in Q4 because Samsung's Note 7 phones caught fire.  So unless another Samsung phone blows up this quarter, they are going back to waiting for someone's phone to break to get another sale.  See their guidance ... they downgraded the first quarter because the replacement cycle and new sales (again thanks to competitors phones exploding) were higher in Q4, so Apple warned that Q1 will not be as good.

Again, if this company was everything you think, it would be $177 today not $125. 

Sell Apple buy the S&P 500 ETF and make a lot more money, that has been the case the last four years and will continue to be the case going forward.  And that has been my argument all along, they under-perform the broad market.

I am not entering the apple stock good/bad argument.  Not my area, I can not offer any accurate insight. 

But you're wrong on claiming iphone 5 was a "big idea" and the iPhone 6 was not.  Either they are both "big ideas" or neither are, which is a matter of opinion.  But they both fit in the same box.   

« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 09:38:29 AM by forgetful »

SoCalEagle

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #195 on: February 01, 2017, 08:51:25 AM »
How about those AAPLs?

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #196 on: February 01, 2017, 09:09:35 AM »

Sell Apple buy the S&P 500 ETF and make a lot more money, that has been the case the last four years and will continue to be the case going forward.  And that has been my argument all along, they under-perform the broad market.

Uh ... no ... unless you are using some of your comrade's alternative facts. Smuggles.

I just plugged the numbers into the investment calculator at longrundata.com using a start date of 1/31/13 and an end date of 1/31/17 - in other words, the last 4 years.

$1,000 invested in AAPL on 1/31/13 was worth $2,029.42 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 19.34% and a total gain of 103%.

$1,000 invested in SPY on 1/31/13 was worth $1,648.17 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 13.30% and a total gain of 65%.

So unless you are in a universe in which 65% is better than 103% and 13% is better than 19%, you are mistaken.

Oh, and that doesn't even count today's big jump for AAPL. If we run the numbers again tomorrow using 2/1 dates instead of 1/31 dates, AAPL's outperformance will be even more sizable.

Just for giggles and snorts, I also ran the numbers for 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year and 15-year periods. AAPL beat SPY in every time period, usually by a considerable margin.

I'm sure you could cherry-pick dates and find some period in which SPY beat AAPL, but that's not the point here, right? You sounded very sure of yourself - some might even say smug - with your 4-year declaration.

Going forward? Who really knows? You claim to, but I'm guessing that 1, 3 and 5 years ago you were making similar claims about SPY being a lock to beat AAPL going forward.

Smuggles, I'm not even a huge AAPL bull. I only own about 100 shares. I'm a buy-and-hold guy who may never sell them but very well might not buy any more (except via dripping).

I simply prefer facts to silly statements that are presented as facts but aren't facts at all.

#actualfacts
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

reinko

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #197 on: February 01, 2017, 12:58:27 PM »
Uh ... no ... unless you are using some of your comrade's alternative facts. Smuggles.

I just plugged the numbers into the investment calculator at longrundata.com using a start date of 1/31/13 and an end date of 1/31/17 - in other words, the last 4 years.

$1,000 invested in AAPL on 1/31/13 was worth $2,029.42 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 19.34% and a total gain of 103%.

$1,000 invested in SPY on 1/31/13 was worth $1,648.17 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 13.30% and a total gain of 65%.

So unless you are in a universe in which 65% is better than 103% and 13% is better than 19%, you are mistaken.

Oh, and that doesn't even count today's big jump for AAPL. If we run the numbers again tomorrow using 2/1 dates instead of 1/31 dates, AAPL's outperformance will be even more sizable.

Just for giggles and snorts, I also ran the numbers for 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year and 15-year periods. AAPL beat SPY in every time period, usually by a considerable margin.

I'm sure you could cherry-pick dates and find some period in which SPY beat AAPL, but that's not the point here, right? You sounded very sure of yourself - some might even say smug - with your 4-year declaration.

Going forward? Who really knows? You claim to, but I'm guessing that 1, 3 and 5 years ago you were making similar claims about SPY being a lock to beat AAPL going forward.

Smuggles, I'm not even a huge AAPL bull. I only own about 100 shares. I'm a buy-and-hold guy who may never sell them but very well might not buy any more (except via dripping).

I simply prefer facts to silly statements that are presented as facts but aren't facts at all.

#actualfacts


Eldon

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #198 on: February 01, 2017, 02:06:17 PM »
Uh ... no ... unless you are using some of your comrade's alternative facts. Smuggles.

I just plugged the numbers into the investment calculator at longrundata.com using a start date of 1/31/13 and an end date of 1/31/17 - in other words, the last 4 years.

$1,000 invested in AAPL on 1/31/13 was worth $2,029.42 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 19.34% and a total gain of 103%.

$1,000 invested in SPY on 1/31/13 was worth $1,648.17 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 13.30% and a total gain of 65%.

So unless you are in a universe in which 65% is better than 103% and 13% is better than 19%, you are mistaken.

Oh, and that doesn't even count today's big jump for AAPL. If we run the numbers again tomorrow using 2/1 dates instead of 1/31 dates, AAPL's outperformance will be even more sizable.

Just for giggles and snorts, I also ran the numbers for 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year and 15-year periods. AAPL beat SPY in every time period, usually by a considerable margin.

I'm sure you could cherry-pick dates and find some period in which SPY beat AAPL, but that's not the point here, right? You sounded very sure of yourself - some might even say smug - with your 4-year declaration.

Going forward? Who really knows? You claim to, but I'm guessing that 1, 3 and 5 years ago you were making similar claims about SPY being a lock to beat AAPL going forward.

Smuggles, I'm not even a huge AAPL bull. I only own about 100 shares. I'm a buy-and-hold guy who may never sell them but very well might not buy any more (except via dripping).

I simply prefer facts to silly statements that are presented as facts but aren't facts at all.

#actualfacts

You need to consider two things (not sure longrundata.com does):

1) Transactions cost.  It is often cheaper to purchase an index than it is to purchase one stock.  These costs can eat into your total return.

2) Risk.  True evaluation of stock performance accounts for risk, i.e., focusing on a risk-adjusted return (e.g., Sharpe Ratio).

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #199 on: February 01, 2017, 03:06:07 PM »
Damn it. Heisy keeps losing us $$

AAPL up another 6%+ today to a close of $128.79. Headlines about how great the 7 Plus is... #SizeMatters