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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 53469 times)

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #150 on: January 14, 2017, 04:36:12 AM »
Closed Friday at $119.04. Less than a buck off 52-week high.

Smuggles, I hope you didn't actually short it when it was under $100.
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #151 on: January 14, 2017, 10:52:50 AM »
All time high is $132 in 2015.

Still a dog that badly lags the overall market.  Throw a dart at the stack tables and you'll probably do better. 

Only reason it even near 52 week high is the overall market is enjoying a massive Trump rally that has dragged it screaming and kicking higher.  (Or it is an Obama is leaving rally, take your pick)

As I said last summer, not short it.  Have not been short the market since I covered election night.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #152 on: January 14, 2017, 11:18:52 AM »
http://www.investors.com/news/technology/click/iphone-8-could-be-last-hurrah-for-apple-smartphone-growth/
January 13, 2017

Apple (AAPL) will benefit from pent-up demand for handset upgrades with the iPhone 8 later this year, but after that, growth in the business is unclear, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi told CNBC on Friday.

"The smartphone is an increasingly mature product, and that's the preponderance of Apple's revenues and profits," he said. "For Apple to really grow meaningfully again, it's going to have to find new things beyond the phone, and that's a big question mark."

Sacconaghi's remarks come two days after Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel agreed with the notion that "the age of Apple is over." There's not much major innovation to be had in smartphones anymore, he said in an interview with the New York Times.

"Apple's fortunes going forward will need to come from other sources and, if Apple is unable to move from the smartphone, it's unclear if this company will be an on-going growing company," Sacconaghi said. "Many investors have rightfully had that question for a couple of years and I think that continues to be the operative question."

Apple is investing in a number of areas to find the next growth opportunities for the company, including the Apple Watch and streaming video, he said. Other analysts have pointed to self-driving cars and augmented reality products as businesses Apple could pursue.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/fashion/peter-thiel-confirm-or-deny.html?_r=0
January 11, 2017

Q: The age of Apple is over.

A; Confirm. We know what a smartphone looks like and does. It’s not the fault of Tim Cook, but it’s not an area where there will be any more innovation.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2017, 11:20:45 AM by Yukon Cornelius »

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #153 on: January 14, 2017, 11:40:17 AM »
Still a dog that badly lags the overall market.  Throw a dart at the stack tables and you'll probably do better. 

You started this thread on April 29th of last year. Since then AAPL is up 11.4%, while the S&P 500 is up 4.7%.

I hope that you aren't in charge of your family's finances. If you are, then stick to target date funds. There's no shame in letting someone else take the reigns if you don't have enough time to learn about something this important.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #154 on: January 14, 2017, 11:52:30 AM »
You started this thread on April 29th of last year. Since then AAPL is up 11.4%, while the S&P 500 is up 4.7%.

I hope that you aren't in charge of your family's finances. If you are, then stick to target date funds. There's no shame in letting someone else take the reigns if you don't have enough time to learn about something this important.

You might be surprised how prominent and successful he is as a financial market expert. 

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #155 on: January 14, 2017, 02:31:52 PM »
You might be surprised how prominent and successful he is as a financial market expert. 

A crapposting "expert" on the internet is just a crapposter.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #156 on: January 14, 2017, 05:00:57 PM »
You started this thread on April 29th of last year. Since then AAPL is up 11.4%, while the S&P 500 is up 4.7%.

I hope that you aren't in charge of your family's finances. If you are, then stick to target date funds. There's no shame in letting someone else take the reigns if you don't have enough time to learn about something this important.

Did you actually read the April post?  Because if you did, you would realize this does not begin to offset the crap show Apple has been the last 5 years.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #157 on: January 14, 2017, 05:06:32 PM »
You might be surprised how prominent and successful he is as a financial market expert.

Keep it to yourself.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #158 on: January 14, 2017, 06:04:18 PM »
A crapposting "expert" on the internet is just a crapposter.

Except he does it in real life with his and others' $$.

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #159 on: January 14, 2017, 06:20:02 PM »
Did you actually read the April post?  Because if you did, you would realize this does not begin to offset the crap show Apple has been the last 5 years.

Yeah, my response is on the first page. I did exactly what I said I would and did alright for myself

I'd enter at 90. Great price for a company with that much cash on hand. Plus the pain of change for all of those people in the Apple ecosystem is too high, they'll buy the crap out of the iPhone 7 when it comes out. AAPL will be doing great by Christmas, imo.

Even if Apple isn't up again by EoY, with as much cash as they have I believe that they'll be up in the next 10 years.

But I'm a boring long-term value investor. You guys might be looking for returns on different timeframes than I am.

I think that your posts in this thread display a fundamental misunderstanding of what Apple has been great at.

1. Hiring the best tech talent available: I'm in the industry and my last two companies have been ones that people will kill themselves to get into. One a recently public company in Chicago, now at a place that's still operating in the shadows. Apple continues to poach the tech talent that they want. The guys they've picked up are excellent and they stay at Apple for the rest of their careers. Only Google holds a torch to that. People leave FB, Amazon, & Microsoft as quickly as they have built a name for themselves for somewhere better.

2. Never being the 1st through the wall: Apple has a long history of never innovating, and that's what's made them successful. They wait for others to be 'first through the wall' and then they perfect the usability and industrial design of those products and make them even more successful than the original. Apple, but like Blizzard (now paired up with Activision), frequently enters markets as a big disruptor but rarely defines a new market.

With the cash that they have on hand and the moat they've built with the tech talent only they recruit and retain, I still believe that Apple is an excellent value in the long term.

Regarding Thiel's comment: There's a reason he constrained his comments to the iPhone and not the rest of Apple's businesses. Smartphone innovation has stalled, but Apple has the resources to fund plenty more market-disrupting products/services. Way more than Thiel and YCombinator could hope to fund.

BTW: It's anecdotal based on personal connections, but YCombinator does a terrible job at identifying tech talent. They've had their unicorns, but I wouldn't invest with them.

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #160 on: January 14, 2017, 06:24:16 PM »
Except he does it in real life with his and others' $$.

Lots of people pass their Series exams. Lots of people crappost on the internet. Maybe the relationship is causal? :p

A couple of my friends are algo traders. I bet they are crapposters too.

4everwarriors

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #161 on: January 14, 2017, 06:50:47 PM »
Except he does it in real life with his and others' $$.



So, Mr. Potato is ether Peter Lynch, Dicks Strong, or Warren Buffett, ai na?
« Last Edit: January 14, 2017, 07:25:15 PM by 4everwarriors »
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #162 on: January 14, 2017, 06:50:54 PM »
Or it is an Obama is leaving rally

Yeah, because 44's presidency was terrible for the market.
"We in college must continually adapt. We need to stay current with what's happening."

-- Mike Krzyzewski

brandx

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #163 on: January 14, 2017, 07:05:55 PM »


Only reason it even near 52 week high is the overall market is enjoying a massive Trump rally that has dragged it screaming and kicking higher.  (Or it is an Obama is leaving rally, take your pick)



An 8-year Trump rally.

Who woulda thunk it?

Even for Heisy, this is beyond silly.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #164 on: January 14, 2017, 07:14:20 PM »
Yeah, my response is on the first page. I did exactly what I said I would and did alright for myself

I think that your posts in this thread display a fundamental misunderstanding of what Apple has been great at.

1. Hiring the best tech talent available: I'm in the industry and my last two companies have been ones that people will kill themselves to get into. One a recently public company in Chicago, now at a place that's still operating in the shadows. Apple continues to poach the tech talent that they want. The guys they've picked up are excellent and they stay at Apple for the rest of their careers. Only Google holds a torch to that. People leave FB, Amazon, & Microsoft as quickly as they have built a name for themselves for somewhere better.

2. Never being the 1st through the wall: Apple has a long history of never innovating, and that's what's made them successful. They wait for others to be 'first through the wall' and then they perfect the usability and industrial design of those products and make them even more successful than the original. Apple, but like Blizzard (now paired up with Activision), frequently enters markets as a big disruptor but rarely defines a new market.

With the cash that they have on hand and the moat they've built with the tech talent only they recruit and retain, I still believe that Apple is an excellent value in the long term.

Regarding Thiel's comment: There's a reason he constrained his comments to the iPhone and not the rest of Apple's businesses. Smartphone innovation has stalled, but Apple has the resources to fund plenty more market-disrupting products/services. Way more than Thiel and YCombinator could hope to fund.

BTW: It's anecdotal based on personal connections, but YCombinator does a terrible job at identifying tech talent. They've had their unicorns, but I wouldn't invest with them.

This is an excellent history lesson of what Apple was.  What have then invented in the last 5 years?  Hint, why has their suck underperformed so badly in the last 5 years?

ATL MU Warrior

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #165 on: January 14, 2017, 08:10:45 PM »
This is an excellent history lesson of what Apple was.  What have then invented in the last 5 years?  Hint, why has their suck underperformed so badly in the last 5 years?
Your suck seems to be performing as well as ever

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #166 on: January 14, 2017, 09:03:04 PM »
This is an excellent history lesson of what Apple was.  What have then invented in the last 5 years?  Hint, why has their suck underperformed so badly in the last 5 years?

Five years is generous of you, thanks!

First of all, underperforming by what measure? Apple has run up 98% to the S&P 500s 73%.

Apple released their smartwatch and continue to dominate smartwatch market share, but they (and the other players) vastly overestimated the size of that pie. That could have been a big analyst miss.

The iCloud release 5 years ago was not the first of its kind for mobile devices, but Apple marketed it better. It could be a catalyst for their current drive into the services space. We'll see how they compete as a television producer against Amazon & Netflix. The iCloud was expected to be a huge source of revenue, whereas it turned into a nice recurring income stream. That could have been a big analyst miss.

In the past 5 years Apple released both the first iPad Mini and iPad Pro, growing their slice of the pie in the tablet market. While they continue to dominate the tablet market, people aren't continuing to buy them. The analysts probably didn't see that coming.

Apple's iPhone 7 has disrupted the cellular market yet again, dragging all of the other manufacturers to getting rid of their headphone jacks. I'm not a fan, but I'm not surprised that other manufacturers are following suit.

Apple's Airpods (those bluetooth headphones) were released just under a month ago. I've been seeing about (anecdotally on Chicago's public transport) a 10% market penetration of other manufacturer's ugly bluetooth headphones. I expect the Airpods to be a hit with commuters in the coming year. I'm usually wrong with these short-term guesses.

Phones/Laptops/Desktops/Tablets are ripe for disruption like the CRT TV market was in the late 90s. There is parity for all of the players involved. We'll see what happens next, and I expect Apple to perfect the user experience of whatever seems to have a little traction. Again, they have the best talent and a pile of cash. I'm keeping my AAPL position, even though it's a little tempting to lock in my 30% gain and call it a win.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #167 on: January 14, 2017, 09:59:14 PM »
Five years is generous of you, thanks!

First of all, underperforming by what measure? Apple has run up 98% to the S&P 500s 73%.

Apple released their smartwatch and continue to dominate smartwatch market share, but they (and the other players) vastly overestimated the size of that pie. That could have been a big analyst miss.

The iCloud release 5 years ago was not the first of its kind for mobile devices, but Apple marketed it better. It could be a catalyst for their current drive into the services space. We'll see how they compete as a television producer against Amazon & Netflix. The iCloud was expected to be a huge source of revenue, whereas it turned into a nice recurring income stream. That could have been a big analyst miss.

In the past 5 years Apple released both the first iPad Mini and iPad Pro, growing their slice of the pie in the tablet market. While they continue to dominate the tablet market, people aren't continuing to buy them. The analysts probably didn't see that coming.

Apple's iPhone 7 has disrupted the cellular market yet again, dragging all of the other manufacturers to getting rid of their headphone jacks. I'm not a fan, but I'm not surprised that other manufacturers are following suit.

Apple's Airpods (those bluetooth headphones) were released just under a month ago. I've been seeing about (anecdotally on Chicago's public transport) a 10% market penetration of other manufacturer's ugly bluetooth headphones. I expect the Airpods to be a hit with commuters in the coming year. I'm usually wrong with these short-term guesses.

Phones/Laptops/Desktops/Tablets are ripe for disruption like the CRT TV market was in the late 90s. There is parity for all of the players involved. We'll see what happens next, and I expect Apple to perfect the user experience of whatever seems to have a little traction. Again, they have the best talent and a pile of cash. I'm keeping my AAPL position, even though it's a little tempting to lock in my 30% gain and call it a win.

The start date is 9/21/2012 the release date of the iPhone5.  As I noted in the first post, that was the last Steve Jobs product and the next day it was Tim Cook's company Yes Cook started in October 2011 but he was "using the previous coaches players."  On September 21, 2012 was the day Cook started with his own players and since that date the S&P 500 is up 70% and AAPL is up 32%

Airpods? ... they are a bust. like the watch, and Apple TV before it.  This is a $625 billion company, four times the size of all the companies headquartered in WI combined.  Apple needs a BIG product that will sell tens of billions every year.  So  I'll conceded all of those were good products (many of which I have and enjoy) but collectively if they don't generate enough revenues to matter, which is why I call them a bust.  It is all rounding error stuff for Apple.

The answer is VR or Driverless and both will be blockbusters ... by someone else.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2017, 10:02:33 PM by Yukon Cornelius »

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #168 on: January 14, 2017, 10:03:01 PM »


So, Mr. Potato is ether Peter Lynch, Dicks Strong, or Warren Buffett, ai na?

Pretty much,

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #169 on: January 14, 2017, 11:18:28 PM »
Yeah, my response is on the first page. I did exactly what I said I would and did alright for myself

I think that your posts in this thread display a fundamental misunderstanding of what Apple has been great at.

1. Hiring the best tech talent available: I'm in the industry and my last two companies have been ones that people will kill themselves to get into. One a recently public company in Chicago, now at a place that's still operating in the shadows. Apple continues to poach the tech talent that they want. The guys they've picked up are excellent and they stay at Apple for the rest of their careers. Only Google holds a torch to that. People leave FB, Amazon, & Microsoft as quickly as they have built a name for themselves for somewhere better.

Again above is the way it was, not is


Tesla Is Snatching Apple’s Stars to Make Itself the New Apple
https://www.wired.com/2017/01/tesla-snatching-apples-stars-make-new-apple/

IF YOU DON’T follow the ins and outs of Silicon Valley personnel moves, you might have missed the news. Even if you saw it, it may not have made much sense. Chris Lattner is leaving Apple for Tesla? Chris who?

Lattner doesn’t enjoy the name recognition of a Tim Cook or a Jony Ive. But he’s a rock star among software engineers. As the guy who built Swift, Apple’s iPhone-centric programming language, he’s one of those coders that other coders put on a pedestal. He personifies Silicon Valley’s relentless push toward technology capable of changing the world.

Now, he’s moving on, becoming the head of software engineering for Autopilot, the technology that’s transforming Tesla’s electric vehicles into autonomous vehicles. Apple’s innovation machine is losing another key cog to a company that has lured so many others away from the House That Jobs Built. And that provides an obvious storyline for the tech press and so many other Silicon Valley watchers: Tesla is the new Apple.

------------------

While I question Apple and panned Disney, I am very bullish on Elon Musk.  Warning, owning his stocks are not for the faint of heart, you're in for a wild ride but he's the true game changer.

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #170 on: January 15, 2017, 08:15:26 AM »
Again above is the way it was, not is

Tesla Is Snatching Apple’s Stars to Make Itself the New Apple
https://www.wired.com/2017/01/tesla-snatching-apples-stars-make-new-apple/

IF YOU DON’T follow the ins and outs of Silicon Valley personnel moves, you might have missed the news. Even if you saw it, it may not have made much sense. Chris Lattner is leaving Apple for Tesla? Chris who?

Nobody reads Wired. They're shallow and completely out of the loop. Here: https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/10/tesla-hires-apples-creator-of-swift-as-new-vp-of-autopilot-software/

We'll see how impactful he is. His entire career has been spent on building tools for developers making his way up to director, and now he's going to be a senior leader in charge of an innovation department working on Tesla's Autopilot? I mean that's not a lateral move and a vote against your previous firm, who wouldn't take that huge promotion?

Matt Casebolt left from Apple to Tesla recently, but he career jumped from product design to engineering. A loss, but not unexpected with Apple closing their car division.

The other two people that Wired tried to tie together in their trend are a huge stretch:
Doug Field was a bigger loss, because that was a lateral move... but that was in 2013.
Rich Heley from Apple that left for Tesla in 2013 already left Tesla for Facebook.

Airpods? ... they are a bust. like the watch, and Apple TV before it.  This is a $625 billion company, four times the size of all the companies headquartered in WI combined.  Apple needs a BIG product that will sell tens of billions every year.  So  I'll conceded all of those were good products (many of which I have and enjoy) but collectively if they don't generate enough revenues to matter, which is why I call them a bust.  It is all rounding error stuff for Apple.

They could be a bust. Hard to call it a bust, though, when the very first advertisement ran for it just yesterday. Most of the public hasn't made a purchasing decision yet, but it was a miss that they didn't get released in time for the holidays. I haven't seen anyone wearing a pair yet, but they could all be hidden behind wool hats this time of year.

The rest of the products have been relative busts, but they're all also market leaders (except for the Apple TV which got disrupted by Google's Chromecast, but they're still close in market share). It's really hard to accurately predict how big the market is going to be for new products, or if they'll just be fads.

The answer is VR or Driverless and both will be blockbusters ... by someone else.

Judging by their recent acquisitions, Apple will be a player in the VR market. If you haven't played extensively on FB's Occulus or HTC's Vive yet, you should. They're cool but they don't have that Apple touch. As of yet nobody has made a killer app for either. Most of my colleagues with VR systems are the same types that bought the Google Glass. They're still novelties, and people use their VR systems about as often as they used their Google Glass. Not much.

Tesla and Apple success aren't mutually exclusive. Again, I bought Apple as a long term value play more similar to KO. I think you're looking at them like they're going to continue being a growth company.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #171 on: January 15, 2017, 11:41:34 AM »
Again, I bought Apple as a long term value play more similar to KO. I think you're looking at them like they're going to continue being a growth company.

Here is my issue with this.  Apple's valuation is still along the lines of a growth stock, not a value stock.  You're paying a hefty premium for a value stock.  It needs growth to work at these numbers.

(The "pure" indices split the S&P 500 into "growth" and "value.")

Apple
12-month trailing p/e = 14.49
12-month forward p/e = 13.32
Price/Book = 4.95
Price/Sales = 3.0



S&P 500 Pure Value
12-month trailing p/e = 13.95
12-month forward p/e = 12.68
Price/Book = 1.29
Price/Sales = 0.62


S&P 500 Pure Growth
12-month trailing p/e = 25.44
12-month forward p/e = 20.27
Price/Book = 3.95
Price/Sales = 2.53

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #172 on: January 15, 2017, 12:13:46 PM »
Here is my issue with this.  Apple's valuation is still along the lines of a growth stock, not a value stock.  You're paying a hefty premium for a value stock.  It needs growth to work at these numbers.

(The "pure" indices split the S&P 500 into "growth" and "value.")

Apple
12-month trailing p/e = 14.49
12-month forward p/e = 13.32
Price/Book = 4.95
Price/Sales = 3.0



S&P 500 Pure Value
12-month trailing p/e = 13.95
12-month forward p/e = 12.68
Price/Book = 1.29
Price/Sales = 0.62


S&P 500 Pure Growth
12-month trailing p/e = 25.44
12-month forward p/e = 20.27
Price/Book = 3.95
Price/Sales = 2.53

KO looks like a growth equity right now according to your S&P split. So does JNJ. Do you consider them to be as deeply flawed as AAPL? Because purely by the numbers if I were forced to choose between only those 3 I would be adding to my AAPL position even though it's overpriced right now.

Coca-Cola Company
Trailing P/E   24.79
Forward P/E   20.65
Price/Book (mrq)   6.76
Price/Sales (ttm)   4.15

Johnson & Johnson
Trailing P/E   20.12
Forward P/E 1   16.07
Price/Sales (ttm)   4.35
Price/Book (mrq)   4.29

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #173 on: January 15, 2017, 02:29:50 PM »
KO looks like a growth equity right now according to your S&P split. So does JNJ. Do you consider them to be as deeply flawed as AAPL? Because purely by the numbers if I were forced to choose between only those 3 I would be adding to my AAPL position even though it's overpriced right now.

Coca-Cola Company
Trailing P/E   24.79
Forward P/E   20.65
Price/Book (mrq)   6.76
Price/Sales (ttm)   4.15

Johnson & Johnson
Trailing P/E   20.12
Forward P/E 1   16.07
Price/Sales (ttm)   4.35
Price/Book (mrq)   4.29

Pure Growth has 115 members AAPL, KO and JNJ  are not among them
Pure Value has 116 members AAPL, KO and JNJ  are not among them either

To be clear, S&P identified 115 stocks as clearly have growth characteristics and 116 as clearly having value characteristics.  The other 273** stocks in the S&P 500 are mixed.  AAPL, KO and JNJ are in this group.

So KO and JNJ have growth valuation but are not clearly growth stocks. 

(** = did you know the S&P 500 actually has 504 stocks in it?)

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #174 on: January 15, 2017, 02:41:17 PM »
Pure Growth has 115 members AAPL, KO and JNJ  are not among them
Pure Value has 116 members AAPL, KO and JNJ  are not among them either

To be clear, S&P identified 115 stocks as clearly have growth characteristics and 116 as clearly having value characteristics.  The other 273** stocks in the S&P 500 are mixed.  AAPL, KO and JNJ are in this group.

So KO and JNJ have growth valuation but are not clearly growth stocks. 

(** = did you know the S&P 500 actually has 504 stocks in it?)

I did not know any of that. Interesting!