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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 54424 times)

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #75 on: May 02, 2016, 06:12:14 PM »
Just catching up on this thread. I think its a little early to be calling the Apple Watch a bust. I don't own one, nor do I plan to, but I think it will become a decent niche product for them (in the same realm as the Apple TV). Look at adoption rates for the iPad and iPhone. Neither sold that many units in its first year, relative to their peak volume several years later. The Apple Watch will get there.



There is a reason they are coming out with the Watch 2. There's also a reason that they still pull the best engineering talent, even from other very exciting companies. Apple has enough cash to innovate and fail and with that will also come great successes.

And this is coming from a guy that works at an exciting public tech company, wouldn't buy an iPhone if you gave him $1000, and wishes that Apple would stop recruiting his best co-workers but not him :)

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #76 on: May 02, 2016, 08:04:21 PM »
If you you all invested in STZ and MCD as I told you gamicks back in September, your best friend would be your Capital Gains Advisor.

Lennys Tap

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #77 on: May 02, 2016, 09:18:17 PM »
If you you all invested in STZ and MCD as I told you gamicks back in September, your best friend would be your Capital Gains Advisor.

What are your thoughts now, Doc?

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #78 on: May 02, 2016, 09:47:38 PM »
What are your thoughts now, Doc?


Would have said MNST earlier this week. Two of top sellers out of 10 items for immediate consumption at Cstore and Gas. Took off big with a beat recently, but I think they are poised to break out over historical highs. Will Coke buy them with distribution agreements already in place?

Lennys Tap

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #79 on: May 04, 2016, 08:30:54 AM »


Would have said MNST earlier this week. Two of top sellers out of 10 items for immediate consumption at Cstore and Gas. Took off big with a beat recently, but I think they are poised to break out over historical highs. Will Coke buy them with distribution agreements already in place?

Thanks

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #80 on: May 04, 2016, 09:20:56 AM »
Do you know what timing would be? My DirecTV 2 years are up on Aug. 31. I would love to at least be able to consider pulling the plug.

If I could watch ESPN, Show, HBO and a few other networks, the only thing I'd be missing would be FS1 - and I guess that would give me an excuse to meet my fellow Marquetters at bars more, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Why not just pivot to DIRECTV Now that is coming out in Q4?  What you are asking for they will have, and in that same price range.


ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #81 on: May 04, 2016, 09:26:36 AM »
Tim Cook talks about time for a MAJOR ACQUISITION.

 8-)

Hmm, sounds like something I said a few days ago.   ;)  Netflix believed to be one of the targets.  Apple has so much cash, they can do a lot of damage with their check book. 

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #82 on: May 04, 2016, 10:55:09 AM »
Tim Cook talks about time for a MAJOR ACQUISITION.

 8-)

Hmm, sounds like something I said a few days ago.   ;)  Netflix believed to be one of the targets.  Apple has so much cash, they can do a lot of damage with their check book.

They have been terrible at acquisitions.  They acquire lesser companies and waste them. 

What did they get with Beats?  They acquire it and it disappeared.  What brand equity are they getting from it?

They should acquire Tesla and have Musk run Apple, Cook to resign.

They should acquire Netflix and have Hastings run Apple, Cook to resign.

This is exactly why they will not do it.

Instead Cook showed his desperation by going on Jim Cramer's show Monday.

Coleman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #83 on: May 04, 2016, 11:02:57 AM »
They have been terrible at acquisitions.  They acquire lesser companies and waste them. 

What did they get with Beats?  They acquire it and it disappeared.  What brand equity are they getting from it?

They should acquire Tesla and have Musk run Apple, Cook to resign.

They should acquire Netflix and have Hastings run Apple, Cook to resign.

This is exactly why they will not do it.

Instead Cook showed his desperation by going on Jim Cramer's show Monday.

Not all of their acquisitions have been terrible. They have done some acquisitions around specific technologies that were integrated into their products which were highly succesful. Like certain touch screen technologies and the fingerprint reader. These make up the iPhone, its most successful product ever.

Acquisitions are not always just about acquiring an entire new product or service. Sometimes it is a component that improves an existing product. Apple has been extremely successful at these types of acquisitions.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #84 on: May 04, 2016, 03:08:32 PM »
Why not just pivot to DIRECTV Now that is coming out in Q4?  What you are asking for they will have, and in that same price range.

Hadn't looked into DirecTV Now. I will.

I haven't been thrilled with DirecTV, but I don't hate it either.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

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ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #85 on: May 04, 2016, 11:57:59 PM »
They have been terrible at acquisitions.  They acquire lesser companies and waste them. 

What did they get with Beats?  They acquire it and it disappeared.  What brand equity are they getting from it?

They should acquire Tesla and have Musk run Apple, Cook to resign.

They should acquire Netflix and have Hastings run Apple, Cook to resign.

This is exactly why they will not do it.

Instead Cook showed his desperation by going on Jim Cramer's show Monday.

They have had close to 80 acquisitions, to suggest they are terrible is kind of funny.

Again, I'm not a Cook fan, so I could give a rip if he is ousted or not.  I just don't sour on the stock like you are and think with the cash they have they have tremendous upside if they wish to exercise it.  As for Hastings, well he has done very well on the stock front, not so great on the profit front. 

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #86 on: May 05, 2016, 08:47:48 AM »
Not all of their acquisitions have been terrible. They have done some acquisitions around specific technologies that were integrated into their products which were highly succesful. Like certain touch screen technologies and the fingerprint reader. These make up the iPhone, its most successful product ever.

Acquisitions are not always just about acquiring an entire new product or service. Sometimes it is a component that improves an existing product. Apple has been extremely successful at these types of acquisitions.

They have had close to 80 acquisitions, to suggest they are terrible is kind of funny.

Again, I'm not a Cook fan, so I could give a rip if he is ousted or not.  I just don't sour on the stock like you are and think with the cash they have they have tremendous upside if they wish to exercise it.  As for Hastings, well he has done very well on the stock front, not so great on the profit front.

On page one I laundry listed the product released since iPhone5 was released (Sept 2012).  It is a very long list.  Again the stock is lower today than September 2012 so collectedly all the acquisitions and products that were spun out of them the market values at zero.

Apple is a $500 billion market market capitalization stock.  You realize it is worth more than every public company headquartered in the state of Wisconsin! (Wisconsin - $172 billion spread over 54 companies, led by Snap-on)

Apple needs to think big, huge to move the needle.  Try buying t-Mobile to start to start Apple wireless, Tesla to get into electric cars and Ford to manufacture them.  Maybe not these exact targets but this big is how they need to think.

All these ticky-tack acquisitions are collectively a rounding error to zero so far.  And their current strategy will keep them this way.

The criticism is Apple is afraid of a large acquisitions becasue they have to dominate everything they buy.  They are afraid to buy something that might be considered their equal.


ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #87 on: May 05, 2016, 09:24:23 AM »
On page one I laundry listed the product released since iPhone5 was released (Sept 2012).  It is a very long list.  Again the stock is lower today than September 2012 so collectedly all the acquisitions and products that were spun out of them the market values at zero.

Apple is a $500 billion market market capitalization stock.  You realize it is worth more than every public company headquartered in the state of Wisconsin! (Wisconsin - $172 billion spread over 54 companies, led by Snap-on)

Apple needs to think big, huge to move the needle.  Try buying t-Mobile to start to start Apple wireless, Tesla to get into electric cars and Ford to manufacture them.  Maybe not these exact targets but this big is how they need to think.

All these ticky-tack acquisitions are collectively a rounding error to zero so far.  And their current strategy will keep them this way.

The criticism is Apple is afraid of a large acquisitions becasue they have to dominate everything they buy.  They are afraid to buy something that might be considered their equal.

But you also realize in two weeks if the stock goes up $20, it isn't valued at zero.  You're also not factoring in avoidance, that if those acquisitions weren't made, the stock could be much worse.  Stock prices are a snapshot in time.  You really think Apple buying Siri and putting that into their phones was a terrible investment?  $200M for Siri where it has become a cultural play in this country.  Come on.

Their purchase of VocalIQ will take it a step further.

Not all acquisitions work out, clearly.  But to suggest they are terrible or added zero value is silly.   


Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #88 on: May 05, 2016, 11:36:18 AM »
But you also realize in two weeks if the stock goes up $20, it isn't valued at zero.  You're also not factoring in avoidance, that if those acquisitions weren't made, the stock could be much worse.  Stock prices are a snapshot in time.  You really think Apple buying Siri and putting that into their phones was a terrible investment?  $200M for Siri where it has become a cultural play in this country.  Come on.

Their purchase of VocalIQ will take it a step further.

Not all acquisitions work out, clearly.  But to suggest they are terrible or added zero value is silly.   

They are managing their decline.  They are ensuring you will lose money slowly.  They are not capable of finding something that can cause them to growth.  To grow fast again it has to significant, like an electric car or redesigning the way we watch TV.  Otherwise they are an upgrade cycle low PE stock.  That means you'll get a chance to by it in the 80s soon, and again to buy it in the 80s years from now as well.

And please tell me you have a better idea than getting on your knees and praying the stock magically rise $20 and bails you out.

Remember the stock was not arbitrarily crushed.  It was crushed in response to its horrific earnings report and terrible outlook.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 11:39:28 AM by Heisenberg »

Goose

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #89 on: May 05, 2016, 11:43:55 AM »
FWIW--Having done business in China my entire adult life I have seen the lows and highs of the Chinese economy over the past 30 years. Having seen good days and bad days I believe I have a very solid feel for the environment and I am VERY, VERY bearish on Chinese economy. Cannot predict when the floor falls out toa specific date but it is far closer than I would like to believe. When it happens I believe it send shocks waves around the world.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #90 on: May 05, 2016, 02:51:17 PM »
FWIW--Having done business in China my entire adult life I have seen the lows and highs of the Chinese economy over the past 30 years. Having seen good days and bad days I believe I have a very solid feel for the environment and I am VERY, VERY bearish on Chinese economy. Cannot predict when the floor falls out toa specific date but it is far closer than I would like to believe. When it happens I believe it send shocks waves around the world.

The floor began to fall out last August.  It is underway.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #91 on: May 05, 2016, 02:59:58 PM »
FWIW--Having done business in China my entire adult life I have seen the lows and highs of the Chinese economy over the past 30 years. Having seen good days and bad days I believe I have a very solid feel for the environment and I am VERY, VERY bearish on Chinese economy. Cannot predict when the floor falls out toa specific date but it is far closer than I would like to believe. When it happens I believe it send shocks waves around the world.

Thanks for your perspective, Goose.

What are you doing with your portfolio to shield it from a potential Chinese economic collapse?

BTW, this is not me being sarcastic. I'd really like to know because this is one of the many ways I learn about investing.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

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Goose

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #92 on: May 05, 2016, 04:42:57 PM »
MU82

Limited exposure to the market currently. I am an optimist by nature but very concerned about China and affect a crash could have on USA. Their stock market means nothing to  me, I am concerned about the real estate and banking sectors.

Knock on wood, a beat down China is good for my business. That said, I hope it does not get beat down too badly.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 04:51:06 PM by Goose »

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #93 on: May 05, 2016, 10:18:05 PM »
MU82

Limited exposure to the market currently. I am an optimist by nature but very concerned about China and affect a crash could have on USA. Their stock market means nothing to  me, I am concerned about the real estate and banking sectors.

Knock on wood, a beat down China is good for my business. That said, I hope it does not get beat down too badly.

I have a pretty good chunk of my portfolio in the U.S. stock market, mostly in blue-chip, dividend-growing companies. Also have some bonds and cash for ballast.

I mean, what's the alternative? I know of people who got all worried in 2012 and have been mostly in cash since then. They have missed out on a pretty nice bull market.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I wish you good fortune. I wish me good fortune, too!
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #94 on: May 06, 2016, 06:55:27 AM »
I have a pretty good chunk of my portfolio in the U.S. stock market, mostly in blue-chip, dividend-growing companies. Also have some bonds and cash for ballast.

I mean, what's the alternative? I know of people who got all worried in 2012 and have been mostly in cash since then. They have missed out on a pretty nice bull market.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I wish you good fortune. I wish me good fortune, too!

Cash is only one alternative

Gold is another (up 20% this year)

Bonds are a third option(they have handily outperformed stocks over the last many years)

Annuities are a fourth

Actively managed balanced or flexible funds are another (let an expert do it) are a fifth

and if not of that is appealing.  Try my favorite ... a gold-plated gun.  Both utility and investment at the same time!


ChicosBailBonds

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #95 on: May 06, 2016, 11:56:06 AM »
UBS puts buy target for DIS at $116

Tortuga94

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #96 on: May 06, 2016, 01:52:10 PM »
I've said this before, but trying to time the market is a fool's errand. I know I posted it once before but the S&P 500 averaged 9.2% from 1994-2013, the average individual investor during that same time frame made 2.5% annual returns. The biggest threat to anyone's investment portfolio is not from financial, economic or geopolitical events, it is the individual investor's emotions, that causes them to respond to the events that does the most harm.

Stay diversified, US Large Caps(growth & value), mid caps, Small caps, international, REITS, EM. On the bond side, buy Treasuries, corporates, short duration and intermediate, I would probably avoid the long end of the curve though. Buy high yield and I do think EM debt is attractive, although it is off to a great start this year, maybe wait to see if it pulls back a little.

Figure out what mix you should have based on your own personal risk tolerance and rebalance your portfolio at least annually.

GOO

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #97 on: May 06, 2016, 01:56:15 PM »
Cash is only one alternative

Gold is another (up 20% this year)

Bonds are a third option(they have handily outperformed stocks over the last many years)

Annuities are a fourth

Actively managed balanced or flexible funds are another (let an expert do it) are a fifth

and if not of that is appealing.  Try my favorite ... a gold-plated gun.  Both utility and investment at the same time!

I have never owned gold, for the following reason:  No Yield.  In my mind, you have to be a trader and sell high to make a profit.  Also, Gold trades more like a currency than a commodity.
 
So, that is how I think.  Please tell me if I'm wrong, especially on the zero yield and you have to be a buyer and seller of gold to make it a worthy investment.  Because of this I prefer real estate (rental not vacant land), bonds and stocks.  I want my money making money even if I don't sell (because frankly, I don't sell often and I am not a trader). 

I see gold as too up and down and it does strange things and appears rather unpredictable.

GOO

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #98 on: May 06, 2016, 02:09:54 PM »
There is a reason they are coming out with the Watch 2. There's also a reason that they still pull the best engineering talent, even from other very exciting companies. Apple has enough cash to innovate and fail and with that will also come great successes.

And this is coming from a guy that works at an exciting public tech company, wouldn't buy an iPhone if you gave him $1000, and wishes that Apple would stop recruiting his best co-workers but not him :)

I tend to agree with this analysis. Apple is on top so it is hard to stay on top.  To keep where they are at may not be realistic over the next year or two.  Longer term, Apple will fine, most likely. 

I don't see the Apple Watch as a flop.  I didn't expect much when it first came out and thought it would take about 3 years and 3rd edition before people started seeing it as something they have to have.  The big thing will be health sensors, of course.  Once it can continueoulsy take your temp, pulse, blood pressure, irregular heart beat detection, glucose, oxygen levels... it will be a killer product and your doctor will be telling you to get one.  it will tell you if you are about to have a medical emergency and need to get help or it will dial 911. Will they be the first to get there, no.  Calls without being connected to a phone, would be enough to sell it without the health features.  Apple won't be the first with these features (some are already out on other platforms), but Apple's will actually work and be usable.  Give it a year or two and see where the product is at... iPhone one was not much of a success, the iPad didn't seem like it would be much when it first came out (many said it is just a big iPhone, who needs it). 

I also don't think the Apple car will be the next big product line.  They still haven't really gotten into the "smart house" business as a product line, they still haven't gotten into the virtual reality space.  I think VR will be the next big thing they do.  It will replace our TV's and be a must have.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #99 on: May 06, 2016, 02:30:29 PM »
UBS puts buy target for DIS at $116

That was on April 18

27 analyst of Wall Street have DIS price targets.  Average $110.48 (last $105.65)
19 Buys
14 Holds (which is Wall Street talk for Sell)
2 Sells (which means Sell Now!!!)

Last analyst changes

May 6, RBS Neutral, target $103
May 5, Cowen, Sell, target $88
May 3, Drexel Hamilton, Buy, target $118
May 2, Jeffries, Hold target $92
May 2, Bernstein, Hold, target $110
May 1, Piper Jaffrey, Buy, target $120
May 1, FBR Capital Markets, Buy, $111

seems like Wall Street is all over the place on DIS.  And that is just the last week!