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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 53466 times)

Tugg Speedman

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What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« on: April 29, 2016, 03:59:05 PM »
Apple's stock is getting crushed.  Down 25% in the last year to near a new two-year of $93.74.  Here is the timeline that is hurting the stock.

October 5, 2011, Steve Jobs passes away.  The last product he worked on was the iPhone5

September 21, 2012, the iPhone 5 was released.  Stock was at $99 (Nearly $700 pre-split)

September 22, 2012, Steve Jobs influence on Apple products was over.  The Tim Cook era really started.

April 29, 2016 (today), Apple stock is $93.74, below the iPhone5 release.

The problem ... in the post Jobs era, Apple has no new product release.  The watch was a bust and the iPad was introduced in 2010.  Apple desperately needs a post Steve Jobs product hit, something Tim Cook has not been able to create.

If Apple is now merely a replacement cycle** company, it has been the tech equivalent of an auto company.  Auto companies trade at a 5 or 6 PE.  That means Apple is a $50 to $75 dollar stock.


** Replacement cycle = marginally better refresh of the iPhone, the iPad, the Mac etc.  The purpose is to offer a new model to buy when you current model breaks.  Think an auto company introducing new models every year.  No one runs to the dealer to buy them (save some specialty models) but they are really to entice you to buy once you're done with your current car and ready for a new one.

Why is the stock getting crushed now?  This week they released their Q1 2016 earnings and for the first time since the iPhone was introduced in 2007, year-over-year sales was lower.  80% of Apple's revenue is the iPhone. 

The fear is moving forward Apple is population growth plus replacement of busted phones (roughly every two years).  That is not a growth stock!

So stick a fork in Apple or time to buy?
« Last Edit: April 29, 2016, 04:04:20 PM by Heisenberg »

brandx

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2016, 04:12:25 PM »
Most of us are still desperately trying to recover from the Crash of '16 that you predicted, so we don't have the time or the sanity to even think about this.

Just as the dire crash that you went into a panic over was normal, so is this.

You want be a great financial advisor. I think the suicide rate among your clients might be a bit high.


Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2016, 04:19:38 PM »
Most of us are still desperately trying to recover from the Crash of '16 that you predicted, so we don't have the time or the sanity to even think about this.

Just as the dire crash that you went into a panic over was normal, so is this.

You want be a great financial advisor. I think the suicide rate among your clients might be a bit high.

I predicted a crash in 2016?  News to me.

Eldon

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2016, 04:21:34 PM »
I predicted a crash in 2016?  News to me.

You haven't predicted it yet

rocket surgeon

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2016, 05:34:31 PM »
I predicted a crash in 2016?  News to me.

and do you realize that you are losing clients like "hot cakes" to suicide

brandx

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2016, 05:48:16 PM »
I predicted a crash in 2016?  News to me.

You were panicking in January. The sky was falling. You might have said:

DJIA lost 1,079 points or 6.19%.  Its worst start to a new year ever (data back to 1897).
The S&P is down 7.5% in the first 8 trading days this year.  Worst start ever.

*RUSSELL 2000 CAPS 22% DROP FROM JUNE RECORD, ENTERS BEAR MARKET Almost a quarter of the value of small stocks now gone.  This is normal?  Only happened 4 times in the last 25 years.

So what is going to happen next?

* irrational move and time to buy
* Figure your next worth on December 31 and if you don't get out now, it will be the same in 5 to 7 years (meaning you not getting "richer" for several more years.)

The energy sector is like the financial sector in 2008.  Continental, Pioneer are collapsing, they might not make it to the end of the week before filing for bankruptcy.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2016, 08:05:54 PM »
You were panicking in January. The sky was falling. You might have said:

DJIA lost 1,079 points or 6.19%.  Its worst start to a new year ever (data back to 1897).
The S&P is down 7.5% in the first 8 trading days this year.  Worst start ever.

*RUSSELL 2000 CAPS 22% DROP FROM JUNE RECORD, ENTERS BEAR MARKET Almost a quarter of the value of small stocks now gone.  This is normal?  Only happened 4 times in the last 25 years.

So what is going to happen next?

* irrational move and time to buy
* Figure your next worth on December 31 and if you don't get out now, it will be the same in 5 to 7 years (meaning you not getting "richer" for several more years.)

The energy sector is like the financial sector in 2008.  Continental, Pioneer are collapsing, they might not make it to the end of the week before filing for bankruptcy.

Pretty accurate.

Where is the 2016 crash stuff I did not say?

And are you buying Apple? 

naginiF

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2016, 08:09:52 PM »
Also.......even with it's recent hit, the stock has both doubled in the last 5 years and this is the 6th such 'dramatic' reduction it's suffered.  Unless you are under 30 (with your Trump and conservative news feed obsession I highly doubt that) a 5 year growth pattern of 100% should be considered fantastic.  Worrying about an abrupt downturn on a specific stock that has shown the ability to rebound from downturns is insane, unless the entire industry or market is heading in that direction.

This is not my profession, but it reminds me of the conversation about how much hedge fund managers charge.  I'm not saying you're not getting sound advice, but unless you are under 30 you may want to get a second opinion.

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2016, 08:11:41 PM »
Pretty accurate.

Where is the 2016 crash stuff I did not say?

And are you buying Apple? 

I'd enter at 90. Great price for a company with that much cash on hand. Plus the pain of change for all of those people in the Apple ecosystem is too high, they'll buy the crap out of the iPhone 7 when it comes out. AAPL will be doing great by Christmas, imo.

Even if Apple isn't up again by EoY, with as much cash as they have I believe that they'll be up in the next 10 years.

But I'm a boring long-term value investor. You guys might be looking for returns on different timeframes than I am.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2016, 08:49:10 PM »
Also.......even with it's recent hit, the stock has both doubled in the last 5 years and this is the 6th such 'dramatic' reduction it's suffered.  Unless you are under 30 (with your Trump and conservative news feed obsession I highly doubt that) a 5 year growth pattern of 100% should be considered fantastic.  Worrying about an abrupt downturn on a specific stock that has shown the ability to rebound from downturns is insane, unless the entire industry or market is heading in that direction.

This is not my profession, but it reminds me of the conversation about how much hedge fund managers charge.  I'm not saying you're not getting sound advice, but unless you are under 30 you may want to get a second opinion.

For the record, I'm agnostic on the stock.  So don't take the following as a sell ...

a 5 year growth pattern of 100% should be considered fantastic.

That five year growth rate occurred 4 years ago.  As I noted above

September 21, 2012 $99
Today $93

What has also happened since September 21, 2012?

* Tim Cook is running the company with the influence of Jobs
* No new products (the watch was a bust), only upgrades to existing products.

Isn't the stock saying your return has been zero and will remain zero until they invent something new?  Replacement cycle is worth collecting a dividend and nothing more.


« Last Edit: April 29, 2016, 08:51:41 PM by Heisenberg »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2016, 08:54:36 PM »
I'd enter at 90. Great price for a company with that much cash on hand. Plus the pain of change for all of those people in the Apple ecosystem is too high, they'll buy the crap out of the iPhone 7 when it comes out. AAPL will be doing great by Christmas, imo.

Even if Apple isn't up again by EoY, with as much cash as they have I believe that they'll be up in the next 10 years.

But I'm a boring long-term value investor. You guys might be looking for returns on different timeframes than I am.

Plus the pain of change for all of those people in the Apple ecosystem is too high, they'll buy the crap out of the iPhone 7 when it comes out. AAPL


Did you just make my point?  You seem to be saying Apple is waiting for population growth and old phones to break to make sales?  If so, it is a great buy at $90, and will be again next year, and the year after, and the year after.

In other words, they are just like GM, the new model will come out and all those with all broken cars will rush to the dealer to buy a new one.  Then they should be a low auto company like PE.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2016, 08:56:15 PM by Heisenberg »

naginiF

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2016, 09:26:15 PM »
For the record, I'm agnostic on the stock.  So don't take the following as a sell ...

a 5 year growth pattern of 100% should be considered fantastic.

That five year growth rate occurred 4 years ago.  As I noted above

September 21, 2012 $99
Today $93

What has also happened since September 21, 2012?

* Tim Cook is running the company with the influence of Jobs
* No new products (the watch was a bust), only upgrades to existing products.

Isn't the stock saying your return has been zero and will remain zero until they invent something new?  Replacement cycle is worth collecting a dividend and nothing more.
A five year growth rate from today is comparing $93.74 to what it was on May 6,2011 which was $49.52. 

Why the arbitrary high water mark comparison?  Why not June 21, 2013 when it was at $59.07?  That's 9 months after your benchmark and $40 lower......aren't they doing great compared to that?

Again, i'm not a financial planner, but you need to seek better advice in financial matters

reinko

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2016, 09:53:18 PM »

Plus the pain of change for all of those people in the Apple ecosystem is too high, they'll buy the crap out of the iPhone 7 when it comes out. AAPL


Did you just make my point?  You seem to be saying Apple is waiting for population growth and old phones to break to make sales?  If so, it is a great buy at $90, and will be again next year, and the year after, and the year after.

In other words, they are just like GM, the new model will come out and all those with all broken cars will rush to the dealer to buy a new one.  Then they should be a low auto company like PE.

Average cell phone is life is 3-4 if you take care if it.   Cars have at least 10+ years,  not quite apples to apples.  Not too mention the price point,  300-500 dollars for a cell phone (which most people can get 0% financing for for 20 bucks a month),  versus new car payments around 200-400 per month,  and being credit worthy.

I understand your point,  but disagree with the comparison.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2016, 10:20:52 PM »
A five year growth rate from today is comparing $93.74 to what it was on May 6,2011 which was $49.52. 

Why the arbitrary high water mark comparison?  Why not June 21, 2013 when it was at $59.07?  That's 9 months after your benchmark and $40 lower......aren't they doing great compared to that?

Again, i'm not a financial planner, but you need to seek better advice in financial matters

Please read the first post ...

May 6, 2011 $43.11 to September 21, 2012 $99.  Today $93.  So nothing in 3 1/2 years.

September 21, 2012 is not a arbitrary date.  It is the release date of the iPhone5, the last product that Steve Jobs worked on.

Starting on September 22, 2012 Apple released the following products that Jobs did not work on ...

October 11 2012
iPod Touch (5th gen) (32 & 64 GB)
iPod Nano (7th gen)

October 22 2012
Macbook Pro with Retina display

November 1 2012
iPad Air (16 & 32 GB)
iPad Air (64 & 128 GB)

November 12, 2012
iPad Mini 2 (16 & 32 GB)
iPad Mini 2 (64 & 128 GB)

December 19 2012
Mac Pro (Late 2013)

January 28 2013
Apple TV (3rd Gen)

February 13 2013
MacBook Pro with Retina display (3rd gen)

May 30 2013
iPod Touch (5th gen) (16 GB)    

June 10 2013
AirPort Extreme 802.11ac (6th gen)
Time Capsule (5th gen)
MacBook Air

September 20 2013
iPhone 4S (8 GB)
iPhone 5C (16 & 32 GB)
iPhone 5S (16 & 32 GB)
iPhone 5S (64 GB)

September 24 2013
iMac (21.5")
iMac (27")

October 22 2013
MacBook Pro with Retina display (3rd gen)
iWork (2013)
iLife (2013)

November 1 2013
iPad Air (16 & 32 GB)
iPad Air (64 & 128 GB)

November 12 2013
iPad Mini 2 (16 & 32 GB)
iPad Mini 2 (64 & 128 GB)

December 19 2013
Mac Pro (Late 2013)

March 18    2014
iPhone 5C (8 GB)

April 29    2014
MacBook Air

June 18 2014
iMac (21.5")

June 26 2014
iPod Touch (16 GB)

July 29 2014
MacBook Pro with Retina display

September 19 2014
iPhone 6 (16 & 64 GB)
iPhone 6 Plus (16 & 64 GB)
iPhone 6 (128 GB)
iPhone 6 Plus (128 GB)

October 16 2014
iMac with Retina 5K display (27")
Mac Mini

October 22 2014
iPad Air 2 (16, 64 & 128 GB)    
iPad Mini 3 (16, 64 & 128 GB)

March 9 2015
MacBook Air
MacBook Pro with Retina display (3rd gen)

April 10 2015
MacBook (Early 2015)

April 24 2015
Apple Watch

May 19 2015
MacBook Pro with Retina display (3rd gen) (15")
iMac with Retina 5K display (27")

June 30 2015
Apple Music

July 15 2015
iPod Touch (6th gen)

September 9 2015
iPad Mini 4

September 25    2015
iPhone 6S
iPhone 6S Plus

October 13 2015
iMac with Retina 4K display (21.5")
iMac with Retina 5K display (27")
Magic Mouse 2
Magic Trackpad 2

October 26 2015
Apple TV (4th generation)

November 11 2015
iPad Pro (12.9")

March 31 2016
iPad Pro (9.7")
iPhone SE

April 19 2016
MacBook (Early 2016)

Collectively the market has said that Apple is worth less now than it was the day after the iPhone5 was released.  Restated, all these products are collectively worth zero per the market.


Why?  because other than the watch, they are all upgrades.  The watch was a bust.  Upgrades are worth zero (no upgrades causes your stock to fall).

Apple needs a new idea, it does not have it.

tower912

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2016, 07:07:41 AM »
Apple still has an I sane amount of cash on hand.   They are contemplating cars.   Maybe they buy Tesla.  Maybe they buy fca, or use them to manufacture an autonomous CT of apple design.   Apple will be fine.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2016, 08:34:52 AM »
Apple still has an I sane amount of cash on hand.   They are contemplating cars.   Maybe they buy Tesla.  Maybe they buy fca, or use them to manufacture an autonomous CT of apple design.   Apple will be fine.

Again, I think you're making my point. Apple has to do something completely different because all they are is a replacement cycle company.

oh, and I forgot to mention they have intense competition from android.  Above was mentioned the iphone7.  Yes the fanboys and paid mobs will wait in line to get it.  By why not get it now for half the price?  The Samsung Galaxy has all the features of the iphone7, is out now and is half the price.  The Apple ecosystem is getting less and less a must as you can replace it with everything from Android pay to Pandora.

The worst cut one can give Apple is they rely on old people that either don't know or don't want to get out of the apple ecosystem.  The same sweater vests that were incapable of downloading MU lights for Nova game.  The all had older version Apple phones.

tower912

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2016, 09:14:02 AM »
I didn't miss a thing.   I disagree with your assessment. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

Benny B

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2016, 09:21:37 AM »
Is AAPL a replacement company?  Sure.

Should they be trading at auto company multiples?  No.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2016, 10:37:06 AM »
Apple's stock is getting crushed.  Down 25% in the last year to near a new two-year of $93.74.  Here is the timeline that is hurting the stock.

That is the timeline? What would you have said just TWO WEEKS AGO when the price was 18%+ higher than today?

Also, why are you ignoring dividends?


naginiF

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #19 on: April 30, 2016, 10:55:02 AM »
That is the timeline? What would you have said just TWO WEEKS AGO when the price was 18%+ higher than today?

Also, why are you ignoring dividends?
Because he's an alarmist, a reactionist, or both.  Which is why i was poking at him about his choice of a high point as his comparison vs one of the low points +/- 5months.

brandx

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #20 on: April 30, 2016, 10:55:28 AM »
That is the timeline? What would you have said just TWO WEEKS AGO when the price was 18%+ higher than today?

Also, why are you ignoring dividends?

He can't find anything to copy/paste on the subject.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #21 on: April 30, 2016, 11:01:42 AM »
That is the timeline? What would you have said just TWO WEEKS AGO when the price was 18%+ higher than today?

Also, why are you ignoring dividends?

 I actually first did that timeline last year (but not here).

Because even when the stock was 18% higher two weeks ago, the S&P 500 was 45% higher over the same period, back to September 2012.

Putting your money into Treasuries returned you more than Apple has since the release of the last Steve Jobs product, the iPhone5.   It's been dead money for 3 1/2 years and will stay that way until they invent something new that everybody wants to buy.

Otherwise they can view themselves as a replacement cycle company start cutting overhead, cutting stores, cutting salaries and start running the company lean and mean bare-bones to keep profit margins as high as they can.

 Conversely, if they want to be a high growth company again, I think you're going to have to get rid of Tim Cook.   He said 4 years and all he can do is put out a crappy music service, a crappy watch, and a bunch of replacements that gets nobody excited.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 11:03:21 AM by Heisenberg »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #22 on: April 30, 2016, 11:09:29 AM »
Because he's an alarmist, a reactionist, or both.  Which is why i was poking at him about his choice of a high point as his comparison vs one of the low points +/- 5months.

Again September 21, 2012 was the last release of the last Steve Jobs product, the iPhone5. It's not an arbitrary date it's not even close to the high stock price as it went 30% higher before fell back down.

September 21, 2012 is the true benchmark of the post Steve Jobs era, and nothing is happened with the stock since.

Oh did you also see that Carl Icahn, who is been a big proponent of the stock for years, sold his entire position in the last two weeks.

So the worlds most important ivestor, which is what TIME magazine called Icahn, no Longer believes in Apple.

Skatastrophy

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2016, 11:33:12 AM »
Again September 21, 2012 was the last release of the last Steve Jobs product, the iPhone5. It's not an arbitrary date it's not even close to the high stock price as it went 30% higher before fell back down.

September 21, 2012 is the true benchmark of the post Steve Jobs era, and nothing is happened with the stock since.

Oh did you also see that Carl Icahn, who is been a big proponent of the stock for years, sold his entire position in the last two weeks.

So the worlds most important ivestor, which is what TIME magazine called Icahn, no Longer believes in Apple.


The reason that the market reacted so strongly to AAPL over the last week is because the market, as a whole, are emotional investors with a weak grasp on technicals.

If you take anything that Icahn says seriously, then I'm disappointed in your critical thinking ability. He uses his wealth as a platform to move equities in a direction that's profitable for himself, nothing more.

Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #24 on: April 30, 2016, 11:47:53 AM »
Again September 21, 2012 was the last release of the last Steve Jobs product, the iPhone5. It's not an arbitrary date it's not even close to the high stock price as it went 30% higher before fell back down.

September 21, 2012 is the true benchmark of the post Steve Jobs era, and nothing is happened with the stock since.

It's obviously their stock has been in a death spiral since Jobs left. Your method of ignoring dividends seems reasonable.


But... care to explain why the stock outperformed the S&P 500, S&P Tech Index, and the Dow Jones US Tech Supersector Index from FYE13 to FYE 15? The starting point is a year after Jobs... the end point is the most recently completed fiscal year... how in the world did crappy AAPL do so well?