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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 53657 times)

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #525 on: January 02, 2019, 09:48:34 PM »
As usual, Smuggles, you know everything ...

Except that AAPL and DIS have outperformed SPY by a freakin' mile over every long-term span imaginable.

I wish you good fortune, even though your strategy cannot work.
\


Keep hiding under your bed, someday Apple will rally again and you can brag on and on for eight more pages.  Until then enjoy the round trip.  Remember, you are not losing money!

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #526 on: January 02, 2019, 11:36:51 PM »
\


Keep hiding under your bed, someday Apple will rally again and you can brag on and on for eight more pages.  Until then enjoy the round trip.  Remember, you are not losing money!

Well, you'd know about losing.

You're not worth explaining things to.
"Turn in your Erin Andrews cars with the drivel above you wrote."

-- hoopaloop

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #527 on: January 03, 2019, 07:09:32 AM »
Well, you'd know about losing.

You're not worth explaining things to.

You were awful chatty when Apple was making new highs. 

What address should I send the donut too?


MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #528 on: January 03, 2019, 09:42:26 AM »
You were awful chatty when Apple was making new highs. 

What address should I send the donut too?

to
"Turn in your Erin Andrews cars with the drivel above you wrote."

-- hoopaloop

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #529 on: January 03, 2019, 04:18:25 PM »

Babybluejeans

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #530 on: January 03, 2019, 04:28:13 PM »
You were awful chatty when Apple was making new highs. 

What address should I send the donut too?

You realize that nearly every stock, especially tech, is tanking right? SQ has been halved in the last two months.

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #531 on: January 03, 2019, 04:48:55 PM »
You realize that nearly every stock, especially tech, is tanking right? SQ has been halved in the last two months.

And maybe the great and Powerful 82, with all his wise sage musing about investing, really just bought the massive FAANG bubble.  The largest bubble in the stock market since 2000.

Then he bragged on and on that he would never buy a bubble or invest based on emotion (go read those bragging posts a few pages back).  Yet that is exactly what he did.

And, the best part …. he picked Apple … ground zero of the bubble.

So if 82 wants to write a book about mistakes investors make, he needs to go no further than his own brokerage statement in researching this topic.

Tortuga94

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #532 on: January 03, 2019, 05:15:27 PM »
And maybe the great and Powerful 82, with all his wise sage musing about investing, really just bought the massive FAANG bubble.  The largest bubble in the stock market since 2000.

Then he bragged on and on that he would never buy a bubble or invest based on emotion (go read those bragging posts a few pages back).  Yet that is exactly what he did.

And, the best part …. he picked Apple … ground zero of the bubble.

So if 82 wants to write a book about mistakes investors make, he needs to go no further than his own brokerage statement in researching this topic.

I'm not exactly sure what you're gloating about. You made your initial call about AAPL on 4/29/16.

Since that date, AAPL is up 53% vs the SPY 22%. Beating the index by over 30% since your call and that is just since that date, if we go back further 5yrs, or 10yrs, the performance of AAPL stock is even more impressive compared to the S&P.

If you had made this call 3 months ago, then maybe people would take you seriously on this topic(AAPL). Not doubting that you're smart or that you are good at investing, but with regards to AAPL, you are spiking the football at the 5 yard line. Maybe time will prove you right, but it's going to be a while until you can brag about being right about this.

As I stated previously, I don't own and have never owned Apple directly and neither do any of my clients. 

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #533 on: January 03, 2019, 05:33:00 PM »
I'm not exactly sure what you're gloating about. You made your initial call about AAPL on 4/29/16.

Since that date, AAPL is up 53% vs the SPY 22%. Beating the index by over 30% since your call and that is just since that date, if we go back further 5yrs, or 10yrs, the performance of AAPL stock is even more impressive compared to the S&P.

If you had made this call 3 months ago, then maybe people would take you seriously on this topic(AAPL). Not doubting that you're smart or that you are good at investing, but with regards to AAPL, you are spiking the football at the 5 yard line. Maybe time will prove you right, but it's going to be a while until you can brag about being right about this.

As I stated previously, I don't own and have never owned Apple directly and neither do any of my clients.

You seem to be arguing that 82's anus is still intact.  The stock is down 38% since Oct 4.  All that matters now is what it does going forward and its down $90 in three months.


What would you do with it now?

TSmith34

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #534 on: January 03, 2019, 06:42:16 PM »
I'm not exactly sure what you're gloating about. You made your initial call about AAPL on 4/29/16.

Since that date, AAPL is up 53% vs the SPY 22%. Beating the index by over 30% since your call and that is just since that date, if we go back further 5yrs, or 10yrs, the performance of AAPL stock is even more impressive compared to the S&P.
That's called "a Heisy".  Claiming victory when losing by more than 2 to 1. LOL.
"Bigly mentally unstable, believe me.  Sad, unbelievably sad."

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #535 on: January 03, 2019, 06:51:39 PM »
And maybe the great and Powerful 82, with all his wise sage musing about investing, really just bought the massive FAANG bubble.

I never claimed to be a sage. You did. And you were wrong.

I own shares of 2 FAANG stocks, AAPL and GOOGL. The total value of those two positions, combined, is about a fifth of my position in D, about an eighth of my position in JNJ and about a fourth of my position in MCD.

So what's your point?

When you have to start resorting to lies, misstatements and wild guesses, it's a sign of desperation, Smuggles. What are you desperate about?
"Turn in your Erin Andrews cars with the drivel above you wrote."

-- hoopaloop

Tortuga94

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #536 on: January 04, 2019, 09:00:10 AM »
All that matters now is what it does going forward.

What would you do with it now?

This is what is important, you can't change the past, what to do going forward. When investing in individual stocks it is important to focus on the business you are investing in. You can't let your previous history with the stock dictate your behavior. Are you still a believer in their product or the services they provide? Do you think it is trading at a fair price or at a discount to it's intrinsic value? What percentage of your portfolio do you want that stock to make up? There are many different factors to consider.

If the business is still in good shape and the stock is cheap and you are under your target weighting for that particular holding, buy more.

It is important to stay disciplined and if the stock is outperforming and it drifts past a certain target weighting, take some profits when you rebalance your portfolio to your target weightings. This should be done on an annual basis at a minimum.



Bad_Reporter

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #537 on: January 04, 2019, 09:05:03 AM »
Bought some shares of APPL today.  82, was I too early?

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #538 on: January 04, 2019, 10:34:40 AM »
Bought some shares of APPL today.  82, was I too early?

I have no earthly idea. How's that for honesty?

Seriously, if you think AAPL is a high-quality, well-managed company with a good future and you plan to own it long-term, I certainly wouldn't say now is a bad time to buy it. If, like Smuggles, you think AAPL is doomed, stay away.

And if you're a trader who likes to buy and sell rapid-fire-like, I really have no earthly idea what the price will be tomorrow. And neither does anybody else (except Smuggles).
"Turn in your Erin Andrews cars with the drivel above you wrote."

-- hoopaloop

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #539 on: January 04, 2019, 10:45:47 AM »
Based on history, it's rare for a stock that gaps down big on news, especially earnings miss news, especially the first earnings miss announcement in nearly 20 years, to bottom that same day.  The ultimate bottom is days or weeks (or even months) away. 

That said, the low might be a few dollars lower, or $50 lower, but the low is still in front of it, not yesterday.

I assume you bought the open, as you posted before the market opened.  So you bought $144.50 and it is trading (as I write) at $147.40. 

Take you $2 profit and walk away.  Revisit later.

ADDED

The company told us yesterday, for the first time in 20 years, it has a problem.  That is a big F'ing deal! 

This type of shocking announcement does not means the stock sells off one day and they resumes an interrupted rally. 

The company, in the form of Tim Cook personally, told you they have a problem.  Listen carefully.

Buying the stock is you saying that Tim Cook is wrong. Is that a bet you really want to make?



« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 10:51:29 AM by Tower Tops »

TSmith34

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #540 on: January 04, 2019, 11:21:36 AM »
Based on history, it's rare for a stock that gaps down big on news, especially earnings miss news, especially the first earnings miss announcement in nearly 20 years, to bottom that same day.  The ultimate bottom is days or weeks (or even months) away. 

That said, the low might be a few dollars lower, or $50 lower, but the low is still in front of it, not yesterday.

I assume you bought the open, as you posted before the market opened.  So you bought $144.50 and it is trading (as I write) at $147.40. 

Take you $2 profit and walk away.  Revisit later.

ADDED

The company told us yesterday, for the first time in 20 years, it has a problem.  That is a big F'ing deal! 

This type of shocking announcement does not means the stock sells off one day and they resumes an interrupted rally. 

The company, in the form of Tim Cook personally, told you they have a problem.  Listen carefully.

Buying the stock is you saying that Tim Cook is wrong. Is that a bet you really want to make?
You definitely listen to Heisy.  His advice only underperformed the S&P 500 by 31% over the last 2 and half years.
"Bigly mentally unstable, believe me.  Sad, unbelievably sad."

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #541 on: January 04, 2019, 11:45:41 AM »
Again, MUpilot, I won't tell you what to do because unlike Smuggles I am not an expert.

But I do agree that it is important for investors to listen when companies try to tell them something.

A few years back, a company named Seadrill was all the rage. It built and sold oil rigs used in the deepest, most dangerous, most difficult waters -- like up near the Arctic Circle. Investors liked it because it was said to have the best and newest rigs, the kind the major oil companies wanted for their fleets. It also paid a huge dividend. But in aggressively growing its business, SDRL took on a ton of debt.

In 2014, as the oil glut began to weaken the market, SDRL and other deep-water rig companies began experiencing cash-flow problems. At an industry conference, its CFO said: "Current market softness is going to be a challenge for a couple of years. The market is going to be bad this year, it is going to be worse next year, then it will be stabilizing."

To me, that was a sign to not just walk but to run away. I never owned SDRL, but I had friends who did. And those who stuck around saw their entire position crash to zero within a couple years.

Now, back to AAPL. Obviously, AAPL is not SDRL. It isn't borrowing tons of money; its coffers are overflowing with cash. And despite all the gloom and doom about its cellphone business, it is still raking in money on cellphones, its watch is the best-selling watch in the world, its tablets are the industry standard, its computers have achieved cult status, and its services business is growing in leaps and bounds.

Nevertheless, Cook's comments WERE foreboding.

I won't tell you or anybody else what to do. It's not how I operate. What I will say is that, for better or worse, I am not selling my shares. As I said earlier, AAPL is not an especially large position for me, and I am not overly concerned about it.

On April 29, 2016, in the very first post of this thread, AAPL was trading at $93.74, and Smuggles confidently and authoritatively said it was a $50 to $75 stock.

Since then, AAPL is up 59%.

A few days ago, in another post bragging about how smart he was, he said it was always important to compare to what one could have made if one had simply invested in the market (SPY). Well, if one had invested in SPY on April 29, 2016, one would be up 25%.

Now, just because Smuggles couldn't have been more wrong back then, it doesn't mean he's wrong again. Even a squirrel finds a few nuts now and then. I actually think he's right about listening to Cook (FWIW), and maybe he's also right that you and I and everybody else should sell.

Then again, he hasn't shown us his books. We don't know what kind of investor he's been. Indeed, the only thing we know about him as an investing sage is that he was stupendously, staggeringly, spectacularly wrong about AAPL on April 29, 2016.

In other words, maybe some interwebs stranger who has changed his screen name a half-dozen times so he can keep giving investment (and other) advice between bannings is right ... or maybe he's wrong.

Just like everybody else.

Ultimately, my advice is the same re AAPL as it is re any other potential investment: Do your best due diligence, decide if you like the future of the company's business model and its management, decide if it fits your goals and risk tolerance, and use all of that information to decide if you want to own it or not.

I know that's a lot more boring than, "SELL! SELL! SELL! I'm Scoop's resident expert, and I say SELL!" but it's the best I've got.
"Turn in your Erin Andrews cars with the drivel above you wrote."

-- hoopaloop

Bad_Reporter

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #542 on: January 04, 2019, 12:53:13 PM »
Thanks 82, appreciate the advice.

Any blue chips that one would suggest for the long term?

Benny B

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #543 on: January 04, 2019, 01:36:49 PM »
Point of order, true AI in the context you are referring to is referred to as general AI in the industry....basically what most people think of as AI from the movies. Narrow AI is what is currently in the market place, the term covers all the fun buzz words like algorithms, machine learning (which covers supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning).

Narrow AI is used everywhere (frankly mis-used) and general AI is no where near in existence. I'd guess general AI won't exist for another 20 years at least.

Great entry level book into the space (not saying you need entry level Benny, but some folks on here definitely do):
https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Unintelligence-Computers-Misunderstand-World-ebook/dp/B07CMSQLLH

Agreed.  I simply was using the layman's term of "cave-dwelling cousin" in lieu of the technical terminology.

And as much as I would love to have my own bending robot, hopefully, general AI is still more than 20 years off.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

mudeltaforcegurl

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #544 on: January 04, 2019, 01:51:08 PM »
I don’t own apple stock, but my parents gifted me 3 shares of Amazon stock for xmas. My dad’s wealth advisor told him it would be a good long term stock for me to hold.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #545 on: January 04, 2019, 02:01:46 PM »
Thanks 82, appreciate the advice.

Any blue chips that one would suggest for the long term?

I wouldn't hazard to answer this question without knowing your personality, your goals, your risk tolerance, your time-frame, the amount you have to invest, etc. Plus, my personal strategy might be quite different from one you'd prefer, and I wouldn't want to unduly influence you. I wish you good fortune.
"Turn in your Erin Andrews cars with the drivel above you wrote."

-- hoopaloop

Cheeks

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #546 on: January 04, 2019, 02:02:13 PM »
Wonderful jobs report.  Hispanic Unemployment all time low, stocks on rebound today.

FED gives flexible address today they may back off on rate increases. 

Can’t we be happy and hope all of us do well?  Our economy succeeds, provides opportunity?  That would be nice.
“Life is short, smile while you still have teeth”

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #547 on: January 04, 2019, 02:07:50 PM »
I am one of the happiest people anywhere, and I hope all of us do well.
"Turn in your Erin Andrews cars with the drivel above you wrote."

-- hoopaloop

Cheeks

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #548 on: January 04, 2019, 02:14:43 PM »
I am one of the happiest people anywhere, and I hope all of us do well.

That’s the spirit.  My comments weren’t directed at you by the way.  I’m Trying to understand why some people take glee in a stock going down that might hurt that person’s financial situation....why is that the case Another84?

“Life is short, smile while you still have teeth”

mu03eng

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #549 on: January 04, 2019, 02:42:16 PM »
Agreed.  I simply was using the layman's term of "cave-dwelling cousin" in lieu of the technical terminology.

And as much as I would love to have my own bending robot, hopefully, general AI is still more than 20 years off.

I'm not in the Musk camp that general AI is evil and will destroy us all. It very well be more than 20 years off but it's not some 100 years from now thing. Keeping in the general theme of the thread, I wouldn't buy stock in general AI companies right now but 5 years from now I would certainly think about it. The application of quantum computing to general AI will leap us ahead and I think we're about 5 years away from a fully utilizable quantum computer. Just hope Ray Kruzweil has it wrong.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."