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Author Topic: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?  (Read 54600 times)

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #500 on: December 30, 2018, 08:47:33 PM »
Smuggles, you know nothing about how I invest.

For example, the tech stocks I have bought over the last 3 years are MSFT, V, MA, AAPL and AVGO. Combined, they have FAR outperformed SPY; I mean, it isn't even close. Each has had some pullbacks since I bought them, but each also has had major surges.

Most of my investing goals are dividend-related, and I own many more companies than those I just named, including a majority in defensive sectors such as utilities, health care and consumer staples. They are some of the highest-quality, blue-chip, dividend-growing companies in the world. And even though most of my holdings were bought with the idea of building a reliable, growing income stream -- something SPY cannot provide -- my portfolio has STILL outperformed SPY on total return.

So, the fact that one company you're obsessed with (AAPL) has far outperformed SPY but has has given back some of those gains means little in the grand scheme.

Of course, JB is right about me not really having "gains," just as I don't really have "losses," because I haven't sold any of them. They're all paper gains and paper losses.

Look, Smuggles ... you said don't buy AAPL at 90. You were wrong. Now that AAPL is finally giving back some of the huge advances it made, you are desperately trying to prove ... what? That you were only "merely wrong" rather than "super-wrong"? Hilarious.

Just delicious. 

The guy that single-handily kept this thread alive for 10 pages bragging over and over and over about every new Apple's high in 2018, and reminding everyone I was wrong, like you have some form of "size" issues. 

With this thread you took the mantle of "smuggles" from me and I will have to try very hard to get it back from you. 

And what we learned about you in those 10 pages is it is more important you beat on your chest and scream "I was right" than actually make money.

Face it, you want to avoid that Apple is now $60 up your arse, meaning that every brag from about page 12 forward is sitting at an outright loss (and way below the overall market)

You are convinced it will rally back.  So hide under your bed and wait it out until you can brag for 10 more pages how smart you are. 

You are the embodiment of every retail investment mistake all rolled up into one confused person, starting with ego is more important than making money.

Congratulations on the history lesson some of your selected winners.  The question is how much anal tearing are you will to put up with before you realize you about the repeat Cheeks DIS disaster?
« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 08:53:58 PM by Tower Tops »

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #501 on: December 30, 2018, 09:23:10 PM »
Just delicious. 

The guy that single-handily kept this thread alive for 10 pages bragging over and over and over about every new Apple's high in 2018, and reminding everyone I was wrong, like you have some form of "size" issues. 

With this thread you took the mantle of "smuggles" from me and I will have to try very hard to get it back from you. 

And what we learned about you in those 10 pages is it is more important you beat on your chest and scream "I was right" than actually make money.

Face it, you want to avoid that Apple is now $60 up your arse, meaning that every brag from about page 12 forward is sitting at an outright loss (and way below the overall market)

You are convinced it will rally back.  So hide under your bed and wait it out until you can brag for 10 more pages how smart you are. 

You are the embodiment of every retail investment mistake all rolled up into one confused person, starting with ego is more important than making money.

Congratulations on the history lesson some of your selected winners.  The question is how much anal tearing are you will to put up with before you realize you about the repeat Cheeks DIS disaster?

Attaboy, Smuggles, you stay you. Never, ever, ever admit a mistake!

AAPL hit about 50 new highs since you said not to buy it at $90, but you stay you.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

SoCalEagle

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #502 on: December 30, 2018, 10:44:25 PM »
MU82, do you think this stock picking genius has any new suggestions for us? 

My advice, see what he says and do the opposite. 

Go AAPL

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #503 on: December 31, 2018, 12:08:52 AM »
MU82, do you think this stock picking genius has any new suggestions for us? 

My advice, see what he says and do the opposite. 

Go AAPL

I never trust people who are 100% positive what other investors should do with their own money unless they can prove that they have done well with their own money.

That doesn't just apply to Smuggles. I read numerous investing sites, and I like different theories and arguments for why something might or might not be a good investment. However, I do not listen to "experts" who say what I "should" do or "must" do or "have to" do unless they have some kind of track record of being correct. And, of course, unless they use their real names.

I would never tell anybody here to invest in AAPL, DIS or any other stock -- or to not invest in those stocks or any others. Even if I did, why should you listen to me? I might say what I have done and others can make their own judgments based on their own due diligence.

Smuggles knows everything about everything, so he boldly stated that only a dope would invest in AAPL at 90. And now he's desperately trying to prove he wasn't wrong, wrong, wrong.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #504 on: December 31, 2018, 08:41:22 AM »
I never trust people who are 100% positive what other investors should do with their own money unless they can prove that they have done well with their own money.

That doesn't just apply to Smuggles. I read numerous investing sites, and I like different theories and arguments for why something might or might not be a good investment. However, I do not listen to "experts" who say what I "should" do or "must" do or "have to" do unless they have some kind of track record of being correct. And, of course, unless they use their real names.

I would never tell anybody here to invest in AAPL, DIS or any other stock -- or to not invest in those stocks or any others. Even if I did, why should you listen to me? I might say what I have done and others can make their own judgments based on their own due diligence.

Smuggles knows everything about everything, so he boldly stated that only a dope would invest in AAPL at 90. And now he's desperately trying to prove he wasn't wrong, wrong, wrong.

Buy good companies you like at a good/fair price (or cheap if you can get it!) and hold until something fundamental changes. And be patient. It's fairly simple!

Sounds like you've got all of that down

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #505 on: December 31, 2018, 10:00:33 AM »
82, is this what Apple's stock has been doing to you the last three months?

Ohio Man Claims iPhone XS Max Caught Fire In His Pants
https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/12/iphone-xs-max-caught-fire-pants/

It seems 2018 can’t end soon enough for Apple. It’s been a bad year for the company, and now if this latest claim turns out to be true, things could get even worse for the iPhone maker. A man in Ohio recently claimed that his three-week-old iPhone XS Max caught fire in his pants. The victim complained about it to Apple but received a lackluster response. He is now considering taking legal action against the company.


Look, a copy of your December statement!



Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #506 on: December 31, 2018, 10:03:29 AM »
Buy good companies you like at a good/fair price (or cheap if you can get it!) and hold until something fundamental changes. And be patient. It's fairly simple!

Sounds like you've got all of that down

This happened months ago. 

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #507 on: December 31, 2018, 11:24:21 AM »
Buy good companies you like at a good/fair price (or cheap if you can get it!) and hold until something fundamental changes. And be patient. It's fairly simple!

Sounds like you've got all of that down

Totally agree, EFR. Congrats on having a sound financial plan.

I do not speculate. I do not try to time the market. I am a long-term investor who owns only high-quality companies. Most of my positions I've held for years and years, through good times and bad, collecting and reinvesting dividends along the way. Most of my companies have performed very well (for example, my Apple position is WELL up, easily outperforming SPY during the time I've owned it) ... but like most anybody I have a few clunkers such as XOM, KHC and GILD.

No investor (other than Smuggles, of course) is perfect. The beautiful thing is, we don't have to be to have success.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #508 on: January 01, 2019, 08:25:15 AM »
Totally agree, EFR. Congrats on having a sound financial plan.

I do not speculate. I do not try to time the market. I am a long-term investor who owns only high-quality companies. Most of my positions I've held for years and years, through good times and bad, collecting and reinvesting dividends along the way. Most of my companies have performed very well (for example, my Apple position is WELL up, easily outperforming SPY during the time I've owned it) ... but like most anybody I have a few clunkers such as XOM, KHC and GILD.

No investor (other than Smuggles, of course) is perfect. The beautiful thing is, we don't have to be to have success.

Serious question … what makes you believe you can outperform SPY?  Why not just own SPY?


MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #509 on: January 01, 2019, 03:27:52 PM »
Serious question … what makes you believe you can outperform SPY?  Why not just own SPY?

Three points:

1. As I've already said, my portfolio is designed primarily around the concept of building a reliable, growing income stream. A big part of my goal is to generate enough dividend income so that my wife can live on that, Social Security and our pensions during retirement and never have to sell stock if we don't want to. That strategy, called Dividend Growth Investing, is different from "modern portfolio theory" -- build as much stock-based wealth as possible and then sell 4-5% of your stocks every year throughout retirement for living expenses. MPT works OK during a good market; it works less OK when the market declines 50% in 2-3 years and you are forced to sell stocks at a loss just to live on. Unlike capital gains, dividends are quite predictable. They are not guaranteed -- nothing in investing is -- but they are far more predictable. I don't know if JNJ will have a higher share price 5 years than now, but I'm am quite certain JNJ's dividend will have grown every year between now and then. Plus, historically, Dividend Aristocrats have outperformed SPY in total return.

2. Even though it's not my goal, I actually have beaten SPY many years, especially (but not exclusively) in down years. For example, my more defensive-minded portfolio beat SPY quite handily in 2018.

3. I like the challenge. It makes me do research and know what I am buying. I don't want to own most of the 400 worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 Index.

I don't care if you agree with me or not. It's my money. My wife and I will have financial freedom until the day the last of us dies, and will leave a financial legacy for our kids. I sincerely hope the same is true for you.

Funny that you are advocating for SPY but crapping on DIS, which crushed SPY this year as well as over the last 5, 10, 15 and 20 years; and AAPL, which has thoroughly demolished SPY over the last 5, 10, 15 and 20 years.

I only wish that when I was investing in SPY in my 401k for all those years I had been buying DIS and AAPL instead. I'd be so rich, I'd buy a jet to fly to every Marquette game.

Do you invest solely in SPY?
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Cheeks

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #510 on: January 01, 2019, 04:09:56 PM »
Three points:

1. As I've already said, my portfolio is designed primarily around the concept of building a reliable, growing income stream. A big part of my goal is to generate enough dividend income so that my wife can live on that, Social Security and our pensions during retirement and never have to sell stock if we don't want to. That strategy, called Dividend Growth Investing, is different from "modern portfolio theory" -- build as much stock-based wealth as possible and then sell 4-5% of your stocks every year throughout retirement for living expenses. MPT works OK during a good market; it works less OK when the market declines 50% in 2-3 years and you are forced to sell stocks at a loss just to live on. Unlike capital gains, dividends are quite predictable. They are not guaranteed -- nothing in investing is -- but they are far more predictable. I don't know if JNJ will have a higher share price 5 years than now, but I'm am quite certain JNJ's dividend will have grown every year between now and then. Plus, historically, Dividend Aristocrats have outperformed SPY in total return.


I wish you well with this.  I've spoken to a few financial folks on this topic with mixed results.  Read some of your stuff on Seeking Alpha, you seem to have a good handle on things. 

Having worked for Disney and AT&T in my career, two large dividend yield companies, I understand the attractiveness of the dividend to investors, though the taxation isn't something that makes me excited vs growth stocks that are held.  As an employee, the challenge I have is distributing those dividends means the money is not going back into the business, and that's very difficult to hear when you are competing daily with the likes of Amazon, Google, etc that are pouring their profits back into the business.

I truly wish you well on this, it is something I have strongly considered.  You buying individual dividend companies,  or buying into dividend funds?

”Bob Knight said never to coach brothers, and never coach twins....they will make you crazy.  When one is sad, the other is sad.”

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #511 on: January 01, 2019, 04:41:34 PM »
I wish you well with this.  I've spoken to a few financial folks on this topic with mixed results.  Read some of your stuff on Seeking Alpha, you seem to have a good handle on things. 

Having worked for Disney and AT&T in my career, two large dividend yield companies, I understand the attractiveness of the dividend to investors, though the taxation isn't something that makes me excited vs growth stocks that are held.  As an employee, the challenge I have is distributing those dividends means the money is not going back into the business, and that's very difficult to hear when you are competing daily with the likes of Amazon, Google, etc that are pouring their profits back into the business.

I truly wish you well on this, it is something I have strongly considered.  You buying individual dividend companies,  or buying into dividend funds?

I primarily own individual companies. I am not a "high yield" guy. My overall portfolio yield is about 3.6%. Several companies I own have quite low yields (MSFT, DIS, COST, V, MA, etc) but grow their dividends aggressively. At least 90% of the companies I own are brands that pretty much anybody would recognize; I have no "secret winners."

The last couple of years I have been pretty impressed with VDIGX, Vanguard's main dividend fund. I'll continue to monitor it and see if it's something I want more of. I'm not stubborn; if I decide the VDIGX (or any other fund or ETF) meets my goals and performs better than I can owning individual stocks, I'll switch.

Most successful companies have so much money they can continue to invest in the company and pay healthy dividends, but I understand what you are saying.

Taxes are not an issue with me, as most of what I own are in tax-advantaged accounts.

I am not trying to talk you, Smuggles or anybody else into this. I write about what I do, and I trust that the reader is intelligent enough to do his/her own due diligence and come up with an investing style that fits his/her goals, personality, risk tolerance, comfort level, etc. One difference between me and, say, Smuggles is that I never say an investor "should" do something or "must" do something. I don't pretend to know everything about everything.

Even though Smuggles and I have gone back and forth a bit, I generally agree with him (and guys like Bogle and Buffett) that the vast majority of investors would be better off with index funds because most investors will not do the work necessary to know the stocks they are buying. Heck, even many who will do the work have trouble beating SPY.

But again, my goal is not to beat SPY.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Cheeks

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #512 on: January 01, 2019, 04:55:07 PM »
Thank you for the response. 
”Bob Knight said never to coach brothers, and never coach twins....they will make you crazy.  When one is sad, the other is sad.”

TSmith34

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #513 on: January 02, 2019, 10:30:35 AM »
I primarily own individual companies. I am not a "high yield" guy. My overall portfolio yield is about 3.6%. Several companies I own have quite low yields (MSFT, DIS, COST, V, MA, etc) but grow their dividends aggressively. At least 90% of the companies I own are brands that pretty much anybody would recognize; I have no "secret winners."

The last couple of years I have been pretty impressed with VDIGX, Vanguard's main dividend fund. I'll continue to monitor it and see if it's something I want more of. I'm not stubborn; if I decide the VDIGX (or any other fund or ETF) meets my goals and performs better than I can owning individual stocks, I'll switch.

Most successful companies have so much money they can continue to invest in the company and pay healthy dividends, but I understand what you are saying.

Taxes are not an issue with me, as most of what I own are in tax-advantaged accounts.

I am not trying to talk you, Smuggles or anybody else into this. I write about what I do, and I trust that the reader is intelligent enough to do his/her own due diligence and come up with an investing style that fits his/her goals, personality, risk tolerance, comfort level, etc. One difference between me and, say, Smuggles is that I never say an investor "should" do something or "must" do something. I don't pretend to know everything about everything.

Even though Smuggles and I have gone back and forth a bit, I generally agree with him (and guys like Bogle and Buffett) that the vast majority of investors would be better off with index funds because most investors will not do the work necessary to know the stocks they are buying. Heck, even many who will do the work have trouble beating SPY.

But again, my goal is not to beat SPY.

Very nice explanation 82.

I've been slowly transitioning my portfolio from pure growth and value to more and more dividend payers as I build out the annuity-like dividend stream.  Still a very long way to go, and I'll always have a notable portion of it in non-payers like Berkshire and pure growth plays like Google and Alibaba, but the intent is to eventually have at least 50% of current income be able to be replaced by dividends by they time I'm done working.
"Bigly mentally unstable, believe me.  Sad, unbelievably sad."

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #514 on: January 02, 2019, 12:30:34 PM »
Very nice explanation 82.

I've been slowly transitioning my portfolio from pure growth and value to more and more dividend payers as I build out the annuity-like dividend stream.  Still a very long way to go, and I'll always have a notable portion of it in non-payers like Berkshire and pure growth plays like Google and Alibaba, but the intent is to eventually have at least 50% of current income be able to be replaced by dividends by they time I'm done working.

Makes sense, TS34. I wish you good fortune.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Benny B

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #515 on: January 02, 2019, 01:57:24 PM »
Serious question … what makes you believe you can outperform SPY?  Why not just own SPY?

Not directed at me, but market efficiency has made beating SPY almost literally a 50-50 proposition over the last few generations, at least with diversified index funds.  But that was when the efficiency of the marketplace relied on actual human intelligence (or lack thereof), not artificial intelligence - or at least their cave-dwelling cousins, the algo's, that are a material effect on market efficiency today.

In other words, historical results being no indication of future performance is not just true in asset selection, it's also true for evaluating trends.  Accordingly, it's easier than ever to beat SPY because true AI doesn't exist (yet), and computers, as a result, are more predictable than human beings.

You don't have to be smarter than a computer, you just have to outsmart it.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

mu03eng

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #516 on: January 02, 2019, 02:36:48 PM »
Not directed at me, but market efficiency has made beating SPY almost literally a 50-50 proposition over the last few generations, at least with diversified index funds.  But that was when the efficiency of the marketplace relied on actual human intelligence (or lack thereof), not artificial intelligence - or at least their cave-dwelling cousins, the algo's, that are a material effect on market efficiency today.

In other words, historical results being no indication of future performance is not just true in asset selection, it's also true for evaluating trends.  Accordingly, it's easier than ever to beat SPY because true AI doesn't exist (yet), and computers, as a result, are more predictable than human beings.

You don't have to be smarter than a computer, you just have to outsmart it.

Point of order, true AI in the context you are referring to is referred to as general AI in the industry....basically what most people think of as AI from the movies. Narrow AI is what is currently in the market place, the term covers all the fun buzz words like algorithms, machine learning (which covers supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning).

Narrow AI is used everywhere (frankly mis-used) and general AI is no where near in existence. I'd guess general AI won't exist for another 20 years at least.

Great entry level book into the space (not saying you need entry level Benny, but some folks on here definitely do):
https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Unintelligence-Computers-Misunderstand-World-ebook/dp/B07CMSQLLH
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Cheeks

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #517 on: January 02, 2019, 03:49:04 PM »
Apple trades suspended today, lower revenue outlook.

”Bob Knight said never to coach brothers, and never coach twins....they will make you crazy.  When one is sad, the other is sad.”

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #518 on: January 02, 2019, 05:47:33 PM »
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) cuts its Q1 revenue guidance to $84B (was: $89B to $93B) and expects 38% gross margin and $8.7B in operating expenses.

In a letter to investors, Tim Cook attributes all of the revenue shortfall to lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, particularly in China. Cook blames the macro backdrop and weaker than expected iPhone upgrades.

Apple shares were halted ahead of the news.

Update: Apple shares resume trading at 4:50 PM and down nearly 7.5% after hours.


Well, that's disappointing. The good news is that Apple has had many challenges like this throughout its history and has always come out the other side looking not just OK but great.

A recent example was less than 3 years ago, when some said AAPL was dead money at $90.
"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #519 on: January 02, 2019, 06:12:38 PM »
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) cuts its Q1 revenue guidance to $84B (was: $89B to $93B) and expects 38% gross margin and $8.7B in operating expenses.

In a letter to investors, Tim Cook attributes all of the revenue shortfall to lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, particularly in China. Cook blames the macro backdrop and weaker than expected iPhone upgrades.

Apple shares were halted ahead of the news.

Update: Apple shares resume trading at 4:50 PM and down nearly 7.5% after hours.


Well, that's disappointing. The good news is that Apple has had many challenges like this throughout its history and has always come out the other side looking not just OK but great.

A recent example was less than 3 years ago, when some said AAPL was dead money at $90.

This is Apple's first guidance of a revenue shortfall in two decades! 

The problem is the iPhone is not selling.  No one wants a $1200 XS Max, or a $1000 XS.  Not in China, or in the US.

Yes, everything else at Apple is doing well, but collectively this might not matter.  The driver of this stock is the iPhone, and has always been the iPhone. And the iPhone is not doing well.

Stock is trading at $145 in the overnight session and this announcement is crushing the overall market, Dow Jones Futures down 375 points (1.5%), S&P futures off 37, 1.45%, as an indication that this is bad news for the entire economy.

Again, 82, you bragged and bragged for 8 pages on the way up.  So you set the standard in this post.

How much more anal tearing on the way down are you willing to take?  Do I need to send you a donut to sit on?
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 06:14:13 PM by Tower Tops »

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #520 on: January 02, 2019, 06:35:32 PM »
Three points:

I'd buy a jet to fly to every Marquette game.

Do you invest solely in SPY?

I do not invest solely in SPY.  But I do not buy stocks either.

I buy ETFs, trade futures and cash bonds.

The reason I do not buy stocks, especially large cap stocks, is the strategy you are suggesting is not possible.

When it comes to large cap stocks, the vast majority will underperform the average over time.  So you strategy starts with an idea that 60% to 80% of your stocks should be losers (to the average, not cost basis).  To have the track record you claim in the large cap space is to defy most understanding of how stocks work in this space.  To turn it around, if your Seeking Alpha strategy is as good as you advertise, you should be turning down $10 million a year salaries to manager money as that is the going rate for those that can pull off what you suggest in the large cap space.  Hence, don't try, buy SPY.

Where it might work, and I believe does work, it in the small cap space that run up huge (10x to 30x) that lead the index higher.  But the way this works is 80% of the stocks you buy go to zero, 19% are average to slight outperformers, and 1% (or one) goes up 30x and you are rich.  So you fail 80% of the time with this strategy and become rich.  But, this is not what you said you do.

See this

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/the-sp-500-is-the-worlds-largest-momentum-strategy/

Active investing may be a zero-sum game, but picking individual stocks is not. It doesn’t work out that half of all stocks outperform and half of all stocks underperform. There are huge tails when you look at the extreme over- and under-performers in the market.

This is exactly what Eric Crittenden at Longboard Funds did in a recent blog post. This visualization of the winners and losers in the stock market since 1989 is fascinating:



Here are the stats behind this excellent chart:

We analyzed 14,455 active stocks between 1989 and 2015, identifying the best performing stocks on both an annualized return and total return basis.

Looking at total returns of individual stocks, 1,120 stocks (7.7% of all active stocks) outperformed the S&P 500 Index by at least 500% during their lifetimes. Likewise, 976 stocks (6.8% of all active stocks) lagged the S&P 500 by at least 500%. The remaining 12,404 stocks performed above, at or below the same level as the S&P 500.


I think this data may come as a surprise to many. Over 40% of all stocks during this period ended up with a negative return. And the winners in the stock market are a much smaller group that account for the entire gain over this period:



This is why 82s strategy cannot work

These numbers are staggering — 20% of all stocks have accounted for the entire gain over this time frame, meaning the remaining 80% have collectively given investors no return. From 1989-2015 the S&P 500 was up almost 1200% in total. The majority of that gain came from a small number of stocks while the rest were more or less worthless.

For 82 to argue he has a strategy in large cap space that works as he says, given that 80% of the stocks in this space lose, is akin to someone saying they have a system to pick and win with lottery tickets.  They don't have a strategy that works and if they are making money, it is blind luck and not skill.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 06:45:40 PM by Tower Tops »

TSmith34

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #521 on: January 02, 2019, 07:33:16 PM »

When it comes to large cap stocks, the vast majority will underperform the average over time.  So you strategy starts with an idea that 60% to 80% of your stocks should be losers (to the average, not cost basis).  To have the track record you claim in the large cap space is to defy most understanding of how stocks work in this space.  To turn it around, if your Seeking Alpha strategy is as good as you advertise, you should be turning down $10 million a year salaries to manager money as that is the going rate for those that can pull off what you suggest in the large cap space.  Hence, don't try, buy SPY.

Heisy, when MU82 says, "Again, my goal is not to beat the SPY", which part of that is confusing to you?

Instead of reading what he wrote, you go on a rant try to prove that something he didn't say is statistically unlikely.

Edited typo
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 07:38:09 PM by TSmith34 »
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Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #522 on: January 02, 2019, 07:35:31 PM »
Heisy, when MU82 says, "Again, my goal is not to beat the SPY", which part of that is confusing to you?

Instead of reading what he wrote, he go on a rant try to prove that something he didn't say is statistically unlikely.

Then he is doubly wasting his time.  Just buy SPY and go play with your kids.

MU82

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #523 on: January 02, 2019, 07:51:49 PM »
I do not invest solely in SPY.  But I do not buy stocks either.

I buy ETFs, trade futures and cash bonds.

The reason I do not buy stocks, especially large cap stocks, is the strategy you are suggesting is not possible.

When it comes to large cap stocks, the vast majority will underperform the average over time.  So you strategy starts with an idea that 60% to 80% of your stocks should be losers (to the average, not cost basis).  To have the track record you claim in the large cap space is to defy most understanding of how stocks work in this space.  To turn it around, if your Seeking Alpha strategy is as good as you advertise, you should be turning down $10 million a year salaries to manager money as that is the going rate for those that can pull off what you suggest in the large cap space.  Hence, don't try, buy SPY.

Where it might work, and I believe does work, it in the small cap space that run up huge (10x to 30x) that lead the index higher.  But the way this works is 80% of the stocks you buy go to zero, 19% are average to slight outperformers, and 1% (or one) goes up 30x and you are rich.  So you fail 80% of the time with this strategy and become rich.  But, this is not what you said you do.

See this

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/the-sp-500-is-the-worlds-largest-momentum-strategy/

Active investing may be a zero-sum game, but picking individual stocks is not. It doesn’t work out that half of all stocks outperform and half of all stocks underperform. There are huge tails when you look at the extreme over- and under-performers in the market.

This is exactly what Eric Crittenden at Longboard Funds did in a recent blog post. This visualization of the winners and losers in the stock market since 1989 is fascinating:



Here are the stats behind this excellent chart:

We analyzed 14,455 active stocks between 1989 and 2015, identifying the best performing stocks on both an annualized return and total return basis.

Looking at total returns of individual stocks, 1,120 stocks (7.7% of all active stocks) outperformed the S&P 500 Index by at least 500% during their lifetimes. Likewise, 976 stocks (6.8% of all active stocks) lagged the S&P 500 by at least 500%. The remaining 12,404 stocks performed above, at or below the same level as the S&P 500.


I think this data may come as a surprise to many. Over 40% of all stocks during this period ended up with a negative return. And the winners in the stock market are a much smaller group that account for the entire gain over this period:



This is why 82s strategy cannot work

These numbers are staggering — 20% of all stocks have accounted for the entire gain over this time frame, meaning the remaining 80% have collectively given investors no return. From 1989-2015 the S&P 500 was up almost 1200% in total. The majority of that gain came from a small number of stocks while the rest were more or less worthless.

For 82 to argue he has a strategy in large cap space that works as he says, given that 80% of the stocks in this space lose, is akin to someone saying they have a system to pick and win with lottery tickets.  They don't have a strategy that works and if they are making money, it is blind luck and not skill.

As usual, Smuggles, you know everything ...

Except that AAPL and DIS have outperformed SPY by a freakin' mile over every long-term span imaginable.

I wish you good fortune, even though your strategy cannot work.
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Jay Bee

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Re: What's Wrong With Apple (stock)?
« Reply #524 on: January 02, 2019, 09:04:31 PM »
I might dump VZ just because of their stupid effin ads.