Tesla Model 3 Unveil

[jficke13]

You can put a charger in your garage for a few hundred dollars and start everyday with a full charge.

Tesla will tell you that 80 to 90% of their owners needs are satisfied by this range.  And they all own at least 1 gasoline powered car for the other 10% to 20%.

It's pretty indulgent/impractical to have a Tesla for 80% of your driving and a gasoline powered car for those other times. I would have to keep two cars and drive them about 50-50. It's impractical.

I love Telsa, would love to have a Tesla, but the range thing is a real issue for some people. Just waving your hands and saying "it's not an issue for most people most of the time" doesn't really address it.

[Tugg Speedman]

You think tesla apple and google are ready to produce 15 million cars?  That's what was sold last year.  I think once they have those production capabilities and the overhead that goes along with it their financials will look much different.

No, see the model 3 ... Tesla builds the stuff rich people stand in line for hours to put a down payment on in hopes the will get one in two years.  Only Apple can say this right now.

The big three build the garbage we have to buy because we need to get to work Monday.

One is the future, the other is the past.

[4everwarriors]

Heisenberg Baby, you rich, man, hey?

[buckchuckler]

No, see the model 3 ... Tesla builds the stuff rich people stand in line for hours to put a down payment on in hopes the will get one in two years.  Only Apple can say this right now.

The big three build the garbage we have to buy because we need to get to work Monday.

One is the future, the other is the past.

If they only build limited numbers for rich people, how are they gonna replace all manufacturers? 

[Spotcheck Billy]

Imagine realizing at 6am that you not only forgot to recharge your I-phone the night before but also your Tesla.

[Tugg Speedman]

If they only build limited numbers for rich people, how are they gonna replace all manufacturers?

Short answer, see the giga factory that Tesla is building Nevada.  The largest manufacturing facility in the United States under construction.  Their long term goal ... it will employ zero employees, totally automated. (obviously they will not get to zero but it will not employ that many given the output of the factory)

Recognize that the "information age" we are in now is as significant as the industrial revolution.   Wish I was under 25 as those with "experience" in business are at a disadvantage as make you slow to adapt and change and therefore more likely to get left behind.

Everything is changing like never before.  Nothing is standing still.

[buckchuckler]

Everything is changing like never before.  Nothing is standing still.

Not even the point you are trying to make apparently.

[Tugg Speedman]

Not even the point you are trying to make apparently.

huh?

[mu03eng]

Recognize that the "information age" we are in now is as significant as the industrial revolution.   Wish I was under 25 as those with "experience" in business are at a disadvantage as make you slow to adapt and change and therefore more likely to get left behind.

This is just a dumb statement. Slow to change is much more about attitude and aptitude then it is experience. Trust me, experience, given the ability to connect previously unconnected dots can produce far more change then some person stumbling around guessing and checking.

There is a power in inexperience being able to freely ask "why" to established convention but that alone doesn't drive change. There is inertia that experience can cause that could make change more difficult but your blanket statement that is always the case is silly.

[martyconlonontherun]

It's pretty indulgent/impractical to have a Tesla for 80% of your driving and a gasoline powered car for those other times. I would have to keep two cars and drive them about 50-50. It's impractical.

I love Telsa, would love to have a Tesla, but the range thing is a real issue for some people. Just waving your hands and saying "it's not an issue for most people most of the time" doesn't really address it.

I took it as the family of 5 will have 2-3 vehicles. The dad has his tesla for everyday driving and the mom has a suburban that the whole gang piles into for trips up to northern wisconsin while towing a boat. No car is perfect and going to fit every consumer, but I would say 90% of people could easily get away with this being the primary car and the family's second car being a gas powered car.

[martyconlonontherun]

I got no interest now then, hey?

I put down the G in case I want this car in 2 years. I am not sure I am early enough to buy it with the tax credit and probably will pass if I am too late. I'm not a car guy and was ok with getting a certified used car (low miles, 1 year old) for ~$18K. I just don't think cars are normally worth it. Buuuuuuutttt if I can get this car around $30K and they have upgraded their self-driving software I would be all in. If it's $40K, I'm going to pass.

I look at the reservation as $125 for a 2-year option (Threw out a random interest rate).

[GOO]

I put down the G in case I want this car in 2 years. I am not sure I am early enough to buy it with the tax credit and probably will pass if I am too late. I'm not a car guy and was ok with getting a certified used car (low miles, 1 year old) for ~$18K. I just don't think cars are normally worth it. Buuuuuuutttt if I can get this car around $30K and they have upgraded their self-driving software I would be all in. If it's $40K, I'm going to pass.

I look at the reservation as $125 for a 2-year option (Threw out a random interest rate).

I too put down the 1K and tentatively plan to buy.  I waited until I was somewhere around the low 200,000's (Friday night), as I see no way I'll get the tax credit living in the Midwest and without a highly optioned build (CA will get a lot of the early builds as they want to sell near the factory, and preference will be given to highly optioned builds, and those that already have a Tesla). 

I am actually hoping that my 200K plus reservation will put me into 2019 for my decision.  Barring an accident, my current car will be 10 years old then, which is when I typically buy a new one.  i also don't want an early build.  I want a car that has been tweaked and some of the initial design and manufacturing flaws fixed.  So, 2019 seems like a good time to have one built, as a lot will be sorted out by then.  It will also give me time to see how the early adopter cars are holding up and if Tesla is making money. 

My reasons for considering a Tesla are safety and the tech (I want safety without driving a large car that puts others at undue risk).  They seem way out ahead in this area and are likely to be ahead in 3 more years.  My concern is having a company that doesn't go bankrupt and reliability.  If the company is doing okay, and the cars are holding up or the company stands behind defects, I'll buy... even though it will be more than I have ever even considered spending on a car.  My build will be minimal with the autopilot features, and maybe AWD, so that will probably put it at about 40K (The autopilot features that are not standard may run about 2K, and AWD around 3K - less than the 5K for Model S currently). 

If there is a better competitor in 2019, I'll reconsider.    If I have to buy in 2018, I'll wait and get back in line.  The only real risk on the deposit is that Telsa goes under and can't pay them back, but it is only 1K and that is unlikely by 2019, but it is a consideration and a possibility.

Battery makes a lot of the cool features possible and work better.  But if it came down to an environmental choice it would be a prius and not a Tesla.  I have no range anxiety concerns as where I travel there are chargers already in place, including one a few miles from my house. I will probably only have to charge it once a week on average if it gets 200 miles a charge.  So, I can stop for a free charge whenever I have an extra 20 minutes and I'm passing by the local Tesla "station."

[mu03eng]

Anyone know why the tax credit was limited to the first 200k a year? I actually didn't know there was a limit so good thing I read this board

[jesmu84]

Anyone know why the tax credit was limited to the first 200k a year? I actually didn't know there was a limit so good thing I read this board

I'm lazy. Here's what I found: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1085549_when-do-electric-car-tax-credits-expire

[mu03eng]

I'm lazy. Here's what I found: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1085549_when-do-electric-car-tax-credits-expire

I'm even lazier since I didn't even do that, thanks for the info. Sounds like the tax credit was set-up that way. Not sure it makes sense since I'm assuming it's suppose to incentivize scaling up but who knows what politicians think

[jesmu84]

I'm even lazier since I didn't even do that, thanks for the info. Sounds like the tax credit was set-up that way. Not sure it makes sense since I'm assuming it's suppose to incentivize scaling up but who knows what politicians think

Haha. I just realized it didn't explain the "why." My guess is lobbying or simply budget constraints didn't want to pay for too much.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Anyone know why the tax credit was limited to the first 200k a year? I actually didn't know there was a limit so good thing I read this board

From what I have read the credit is for the 1st 200,000 Teslas sold regardless of which model so 200K of the latest model will not get a credit since you need to subtract the number of vehicles of any model that Tesla already sold. However that doesn't mean you get nothing, the credit is phased out over a 1 year period after that:

 The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).

Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

[mu03eng]

From what I have read the credit is for the 1st 200,000 Teslas sold regardless of which model so 200K of the latest model will not get a credit since you need to subtract the number of vehicles of any model that Tesla already sold. However that doesn't mean you get nothing, the credit is phased out over a 1 year period after that:

 The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).

Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

Thanks.

I get the how and the what, but I don't understand the way. Moving to alt vehicles is about getting acquisition expense down because they are competing against high volume, established vehicles where as in the beginning the alt vehicles are pretty low volume until the concept is proven and infrastructure ramps up. So you provide a tax credit to defray that cost until they are on level competitive ground, but that's not the way it's set up. To compete with an industry that makes and sells 15-18 million cars a year....the alt vehicle would need to be making 200k per manufacturer per model per year, not over the lifetime of the manufacturer for all models.

Only way that makes sense is if everything thinks once there are 800,000 total alt vehicles on the roads we've solved the volume/infrastructure problem.

[GOO]

From what I have read the credit is for the 1st 200,000 Teslas sold regardless of which model so 200K of the latest model will not get a credit since you need to subtract the number of vehicles of any model that Tesla already sold. However that doesn't mean you get nothing, the credit is phased out over a 1 year period after that:

Correct. 
Why the 200K limit?  Government give away of our money...?  I wouldn't look for a great policy philosophy beyond that... but the argument would be to get electric cars rolling if they had to make a policy argument.... this credit was something the conservatives could offer car companies (probably not thinking of Tesla, but the established companies and those little golf cart type of "cars") and the liberals could point to for the environmental donors.  it makes little sense in the scheme of things.

Supposedly electric cars with 200+ mile range should be as cheap or cheaper than ICU cars by 2022.

Elon Musk has talked about something exciting at the second part of the reveal closer to production time... he said he thought part 2 of the reveal would be where the big reservations came in, not part one.

[martyconlonontherun]

From what I have read the credit is for the 1st 200,000 Teslas sold regardless of which model so 200K of the latest model will not get a credit since you need to subtract the number of vehicles of any model that Tesla already sold. However that doesn't mean you get nothing, the credit is phased out over a 1 year period after that:

 The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).

Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

The way I read this is that you get 2 months after Tesla hits the 200k mark.
So if Tesla is at 190K in late December 18, could there be a scenario where they hold new inventory until January 2019.  They could theoretically try producing another 75K by June 2019 and still qualify for the credit. Then they would have until December 2019 for $3,750, which is still a nice rebate from Uncle Sam. I bet Tesla strategically releases these cars to take advantage of the 2 month lag in phase out. It would be perfect for me from my position in life to be able to get this in mid-2019. Just depends how many cars they can turn out.

[martyconlonontherun]

I too put down the 1K and tentatively plan to buy.  I waited until I was somewhere around the low 200,000's (Friday night), as I see no way I'll get the tax credit living in the Midwest and without a highly optioned build (CA will get a lot of the early builds as they want to sell near the factory, and preference will be given to highly optioned builds, and those that already have a Tesla). 

I am actually hoping that my 200K plus reservation will put me into 2019 for my decision.  Barring an accident, my current car will be 10 years old then, which is when I typically buy a new one.  i also don't want an early build.  I want a car that has been tweaked and some of the initial design and manufacturing flaws fixed.  So, 2019 seems like a good time to have one built, as a lot will be sorted out by then.  It will also give me time to see how the early adopter cars are holding up and if Tesla is making money. 

My reasons for considering a Tesla are safety and the tech (I want safety without driving a large car that puts others at undue risk).  They seem way out ahead in this area and are likely to be ahead in 3 more years.  My concern is having a company that doesn't go bankrupt and reliability.  If the company is doing okay, and the cars are holding up or the company stands behind defects, I'll buy... even though it will be more than I have ever even considered spending on a car.  My build will be minimal with the autopilot features, and maybe AWD, so that will probably put it at about 40K (The autopilot features that are not standard may run about 2K, and AWD around 3K - less than the 5K for Model S currently). 

If there is a better competitor in 2019, I'll reconsider.    If I have to buy in 2018, I'll wait and get back in line.  The only real risk on the deposit is that Telsa goes under and can't pay them back, but it is only 1K and that is unlikely by 2019, but it is a consideration and a possibility.

Battery makes a lot of the cool features possible and work better.  But if it came down to an environmental choice it would be a prius and not a Tesla.  I have no range anxiety concerns as where I travel there are chargers already in place, including one a few miles from my house. I will probably only have to charge it once a week on average if it gets 200 miles a charge.  So, I can stop for a free charge whenever I have an extra 20 minutes and I'm passing by the local Tesla "station."

Did you get any information on any kind of priority? It was all very vague on my end.

[Tugg Speedman]

I put down my deposit on Saturday.  I'm probably looking at a 2019 model (the deposit is refundable).  As far as the credit goes, I'm going to bet they take it away altogether anyway.

As of now I plan to buy it with or without the credit.  But ask me again in 2019, I could change that.

[GOO]

Did you get any information on any kind of priority? It was all very vague on my end.

No, Tesla isn't giving out info directly on where you stand in line.  I am estimating mine how public statements (which for Tesla means Musk tweeting) on where I stand.  And since it isn't as simple as where you are in line, I'm not sure that knowing exactly where I was at would matter to much.  The place in line matters for whatever region you are in, but certain factors such as highly optioned builds (50K+) and prior Telsa ownership will bump one up higher within that region.  Being in the Midwest already means we won't be a priority region, I imagine.  They also want early builds to go to people near the factory so that they can create the improvement loop and have easy access to the cars if they need to study early problems. Tesla is supposed to be good about tweaking the assembly line quickly based upon real work issues that pop up. 

[GOO]

I put down my deposit on Saturday.  I'm probably looking at a 2019 model (the deposit is refundable).  As far as the credit goes, I'm going to bet they take it away altogether anyway.

As of now I plan to buy it with or without the credit.  But ask me again in 2019, I could change that.

I'm right there with you, and I'll see how things develop and make the real decision in 2019.  Or at least hopefully 2019 and not sooner.  One maybe able to sell the rights by doing a build for someone else.  Little risk as long as the person escrows the money up front or pays the money up front.  I know people have done that for the S and currently for the X, selling for as much as 50K.  Obviously, the S and X is a different level of buyer and some with plenty of cash where 50K doesn't mean much.  Too much hassle/risk for me if the rights are only worth a few grand.  But a possible scenario to look into if the decision comes up too soon. 

[jficke13]

I took it as the family of 5 will have 2-3 vehicles. The dad has his tesla for everyday driving and the mom has a suburban that the whole gang piles into for trips up to northern wisconsin while towing a boat. No car is perfect and going to fit every consumer, but I would say 90% of people could easily get away with this being the primary car and the family's second car being a gas powered car.

If the sales pitch is "Have a Tesla 3 for daily driving, you'll save $ because you won't have a gas bill," but you have to own an extra gas-powered vehicle to make it a viable option. You'll burn up a lot of those savings in insurance (and financing if you don't own the vehicles outright).

If the sales pitch is "Have a Tesla 3 for daily driving, you'll save the planet even if it costs you more $ to do so," I don't think that plays as well in the $30-40k price point market than it does in the $90-110k market. People are pinching pennies to send kids to school/pay for healthcare/etc, to have buy a $40k indulgence at the green confessional is hard for me to wrap my head around.

Really, I think it's as simple as it works if you have driving habits that keep you in the range. If you don't, it doesn't. Like Tesla said (and someone pointed out here) they think 90% of drivers will have no issue with the range. That means 10% will.