Play in the finals and we are in - Katz

[4everwarriors]

Hell, just hopin' for a win vs St. John's, hey?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You're assuming that MU would have beaten all of the non "little sisters of the poor" teams. One-third of MU's losses have been to teams with an an RPI of 97+ with 3 of those at home.

Ugh. I've repeated this post too many times. Go look at the RPI and find some low majors between 170-220, and tell yourself that MU loses to them. Sure, there may be a couple outliers in there that would give MU a game, but MU beats most of those teams 19/20 times. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If we had upgraded to include a Green Bay, Milwaukee or even a South Dakota State (beat TCU and Minnesota) in early season play, the chances of getting beat in any of those games would have been quite high.   Remember when we barely beat IUPUI?

Yes, the 2nd game of the season with a team that got 75% of its scoring from underclassman. Yes, I remember, and yes, this team was vastly different after its trip to NY. 

[wadesworld]

Ugh. I've repeated this post too many times. Go look at the RPI and find some low majors between 170-220, and tell yourself that MU loses to them. Sure, there may be a couple outliers in there that would give MU a game, but MU beats most of those teams 19/20 times.

You realize we started the season by losing at home to Belmont, going to overtime at home with IUPUI, and losing by about 50 to Iowa at home, right?  We weren't ready.  Our schedule did its job.  Our team did not.

[MUBigDance]

Can't tell, but are you implying that we'd be a 15 seed should we win the big east tournament?

If I am, is there something wrong with that?

What I was mostly saying was we're not going to make the tournament.

anyway, I started a another tongue-in-cheek post about the possible seed. Its all fun right?

[Badgerhater]

Remember that incredible run with the midgets and Lazar when they won three consecutive BEAST road games in overtime and then pasted Louisville at home in the course of ten days?

MU today is not that team.

[GooooMarquette]

If I am, is there something wrong with that?

What I was mostly saying was we're not going to make the tournament.

anyway, I started a another tongue-in-cheek post about the possible seed. Its all fun right?

Fun?  FUN?!?

Scoop isn't supposed to be fun!

[wadesworld]

Yes, the 2nd game of the season with a team that got 75% of its scoring from underclassman. Yes, I remember, and yes, this team was vastly different after its trip to NY.

We were "vastly different?"  We needed late game heroics to beat 2 teams struggling to make the NIT (just like us) in NYC and then beat a bunch of cupcakes, with a win at a horrible (at the time) WI team in the middle.  Then we got trounced twice to start the BE season.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You realize we started the season by losing at home to Belmont, going to overtime at home with IUPUI, and losing by about 50 to Iowa at home, right?  We weren't ready.  Our schedule did its job.  Our team did not.

God lord. Yes, I remember.  MU was a vastly different team in early November as opposed to early-mid December when they played Grambling (349), Maine (315), San Jose State (298), Chicago State (348), and Presbyterian (316) in 5 out of 6 games.  That's what unnatural carnal knowledgeed MU's computer numbers.  You trade out those games for Wofford (199), South Dakota (201), Detroit (202), Bowling Green (207), and Gardner Webb (208), all teams that MU likely beats at home in December, their RPI/SOS is 80/51 right now with the same 19-12 record.  Still likely out of the dance - yes. But a run in the BET would make an at large bid still possible.  Billy Garrett doesn't get inexplicably fouled on that last shot - MU is 20-11 with RPI/SOS of 68/51 - squarely on the bubble. Beat Belmont too? 57/50 with 21-10 record.  Likely in with a 9-9 conference record. 

Point is, schedule did make a difference, and it was damn joke from the very beginning.

[MerrittsMustache]

God lord. Yes, I remember.  MU was a vastly different team in early November as opposed to early-mid December when they played Grambling (349), Maine (315), San Jose State (298), Chicago State (348), and Presbyterian (316) in 5 out of 6 games.  That's what unnatural carnal knowledgeed MU's computer numbers.  You trade out those games for Wofford (199), South Dakota (201), Detroit (202), Bowling Green (207), and Gardner Webb (208), all teams that MU likely beats at home in December, their RPI/SOS is 80/51 right now with the same 19-12 record.  Still likely out of the dance - yes. But a run in the BET would make an at large bid still possible.  Billy Garrett doesn't get inexplicably fouled on that last shot - MU is 20-11 with RPI/SOS of 68/51 - squarely on the bubble. Beat Belmont too? 57/50 with 21-10 record.  Likely in with a 9-9 conference record. 

Point is, schedule did make a difference, and it was damn joke from the very beginning.

If MU had beaten DePaul and Belmont then swapping the 300s for 200s wouldn't have made a difference. They'd still be out and still need a BET run to get in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We were "vastly different?"  We needed late game heroics to beat 2 teams struggling to make the NIT (just like us) in NYC and then beat a bunch of cupcakes, with a win at a horrible (at the time) WI team in the middle.  Then we got trounced twice to start the BE season.

So you think a team that started 4 underclassman and three freshman for much of the year should be graded out for the entire season how they played in the first 2 games of the season?

Alrighty then.

Look, as you said, MU still could have played themselves into the tournament with a 10-8 or 11-7 BE record. Agreed.  But their margin for error was literally zero due to the god awful buy games. Do they deserve to get an at large at 8-10?  No. But that doesn't change the fact that at a 10,000 foot view, their resume isn't all that different from teams battling for the last four spots RIGHT NOW, the main difference being the ugly RPI/SOS numbers.   

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If MU had beaten DePaul and Belmont then swapping the 300s for 200s wouldn't have made a difference. They'd still be out and still need a BET run to get in.

Disagree. Educate yourself on the bubble and get back to me.

[MerrittsMustache]

Disagree. Educate yourself on the bubble and get back to me.

Lunardi has Ohio State on the bubble.

19-12
RPI: 76
2-8 vs top 50
3 sub-100 losses

MU (w wins over DePaul & Belmont)
21-10
RPI: 80
4-8 vs top 50
1 sub-100 loss

Is that not bubble territory?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lunardi has Ohio State on the bubble.

19-12
RPI: 76
2-8 vs top 50
3 sub-100 losses

MU (w wins over DePaul & Belmont)
21-10
RPI: 80
4-8 vs top 50
1 sub-100 loss

Is that not bubble territory?

Territory? Yes.  But they're likely in.  Plus, you said the crappy buy games wouldn't matter at that point, which you are incorrect, because if you look at my previous posts, you replace those games with less crappy buy game teams the RPI jumps another ~15 spots.

Look, its all moot.  It doesn't matter at this point. But to say the schedule didn't have any affect is silly.  Yes, MU still needed to win a game they lost somewhere along the way to be closer be in with better buy games, but they'd at least still have a shot.

Ok, I am actually done now.

[MerrittsMustache]

Territory? Yes.  But they're likely in.  Plus, you said the crappy buy games wouldn't matter at that point, which you are incorrect, because if you look at my previous posts, you replace those games with less crappy buy game teams the RPI jumps another ~15 spots.

Look, its all moot.  It doesn't matter at this point. But to say the schedule didn't have any affect is silly.  Yes, MU still needed to win a game they lost somewhere along the way to be closer be in with better buy games, but they'd at least still have a shot.

Ok, I am actually done now.

Fair enough...but we're back to assuming MU would beat those RPI 170-200s 

Hopefully a year from now we're debating whether or not MU's non-conf schedule is going to cost them to #1 overall seed.

[The Lens]

Hell, just hopin' for a win vs St. John's, hey?

Somebody is paying attention to current events.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Fair enough...but we're back to assuming MU would beat those RPI 170-200s 

Hopefully a year from now we're debating whether or not MU's non-conf schedule is going to cost them to #1 overall seed.

Yes, I am comfortable assuming MU beats the likes of Wofford (199), South Dakota (201), Detroit (202), Bowling Green (207), and Gardner Webb (208) at home.

[brewcity77]

Had we scheduled 4 tougher opponents instead of Grambling, Maine, Chicago State, and Presbyterian and gone 3-1, we'd be on the bubble (though likely still out). The 8-10 league record didn't do us any favors.

The problem with the schedule is it left us no margin for error. We had to win every game we were expected to win (including Belmont, Creighton, and DePaul at home) and a quite a few we weren't (LSU, Wisconsin, Providence (x2), Creighton away). Because we weren't perfect in those games, we are out.

Pretty much anything less than winning every close game we played in meant we would be left out. We went 11-3 in games decided by two possessions or fewer. We needed to be 14-0 in those to have a chance.

[Jay Bee]

Lunardi has Ohio State on the bubble.

19-12
RPI: 76
2-8 vs top 50
3 sub-100 losses

MU (w wins over DePaul & Belmont)
21-10
RPI: 80
4-8 vs top 50
1 sub-100 loss

Is that not bubble territory?

No. Katz is wrong.

tOSU is on outside looking in, but they have a path other than winning the B1G tourney. They get PSU first.. should be a win. Then they get MSU. Beat the Spartans and lose the next game and their RPI can fall into the high-50's.

MU has one path to the tourney - win the BET.

[GooooMarquette]

MU has one path to the tourney - win the BET.

Yep.

[brewcity77]

MU has one path to the tourney - win the BET.

+2

Further, Marquette probably needs to make the final just to get to the NIT. Last year's lowest rated team in the RPI to make the NIT as an at-large was 90 Arizona State. For us to exceed that, we would have to get to the final (beat SJU, X, SHU, lose to 'Nova) just to crack the top-90.

What Katz says will get us the NCAAs will only get us the NIT, and what most think will get us the NIT will only get us Las Vegas or the CBI.

[BM1090]

+2

Further, Marquette probably needs to make the final just to get to the NIT. Last year's lowest rated team in the RPI to make the NIT as an at-large was 90 Arizona State. For us to exceed that, we would have to get to the final (beat SJU, X, SHU, lose to 'Nova) just to crack the top-90.

What Katz says will get us the NCAAs will only get us the NIT, and what most think will get us the NIT will only get us Las Vegas or the CBI.

Friendly wager that if we win tonight and lose tomorrow we make the NIT field? 6 pack of the winner's choice, perhaps?

I think we're focusing way too much on metrics. Check out the NIT projected brackets and look at the "also considered" page. Really not too much there.

[GGGG]

Friendly wager that if we win tonight and lose tomorrow we make the NIT field? 6 pack of the winner's choice, perhaps?

I think we're focusing way too much on metrics. Check out the NIT projected brackets and look at the "also considered" page. Really not too much there.

The problem is that Marquette is hanging on as an at large in those brackets, but there are still 9 or 10 single bid leagues left to go.  If about half of those go to non #1 seeds, Marquette is likely out with out a good run in the BET.  If those go chalk, my guess is Marquette is likely in no matter how they do tonight.

[humanlung]

I said on another thread that in 1990-1991 K.O.  took a very young team and threw it out against top-tier teams.  We played at Duke, at Kansas, and at Michigan that year, to name a few.  We got killed but the team got incredibly tough.  If I remember correctly, that team was in/stealing games at the end of the season that shouldn't have been close.  A couple years later, the kids grew into men and we had back-to-back 20 win season for the first time in a while.

I have always believed this is the way to "grow up" a young team.  The pre-conference schedule(s) we have been playing have, overall, been the NCAA Division I equivalent of a participation trophy for a little kid.  Nice to get but it does not teach you anything about the effort, determination, and character that true excellence requires.

[BM1090]

The problem is that Marquette is hanging on as an at large in those brackets, but there are still 9 or 10 single bid leagues left to go.  If about half of those go to non #1 seeds, Marquette is likely out with out a good run in the BET.  If those go chalk, my guess is Marquette is likely in no matter how they do tonight.

That's fair. And if those single bid leagues all go to non #1 seeds, then I'd probably rather be in the Vegas 16 anyways.