2016-17 Schedule

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

How come we don't try and get a game with UWM?

[GOO]

How come we don't try and get a game with UWM?

Because MUScoop has spoken again and again on the UWM topic and decided that it is not in MU's best interest, even less in our interest if UWM demands a home game.  Just like all things MU Basketball, the AD and Administration keep abreast of the MUScoop brain trust and act accordingly.  MUScoop has spoken, topic closed.  Not playing UWM.

[brewcity77]

St. Francis (PA) is a decent add. Not great, not terrible. Probably going to be in the 200-300 range of RPI. They lose 3 senior starters, but will likely start at least three seniors as well as a decent sophomore in Josh Nebo. Coach Rob Krimmel had increased their win total each year and was on pace to do the same last year before that 6-game losing streak. No problems with this addition.

[Herman Cain]

How come we don't try and get a game with UWM?

We should.

[Herman Cain]

Why don't we try and bring back football?

Never should have given it up.

[Herman Cain]

Why didn't we all invest in Apple before the Ipod came out?

I did.

[brewcity77]

So one of the guys I'm most interested to see next year...St. Francis senior guard Georgios Angelou. The Greek sharpshooter likes to shoot the long ball. I mean...REALLY likes to shoot the long ball. Last year, he took 60 shots on the season, 54 beyond the arc (48.1% accuracy). For his career, 71 of his 79 total shot attempts are threes. His eFG% last year was a positively silly 70.0%. Also was a perfect 14/14 at the line (guess you don't get fouled much when you pretty much never go inside). He's fifth in returning minutes, so I'd think he will play even more next year and be able to fire up more shots from long-range.

[Jay Bee]

So one of the guys I'm most interested to see next year...St. Francis senior guard Georgios Angelou. The Greek sharpshooter likes to shoot the long ball. I mean...REALLY likes to shoot the long ball. Last year, he took 60 shots on the season, 54 beyond the arc (48.1% accuracy). For his career, 71 of his 79 total shot attempts are threes. His eFG% last year was a positively silly 70.0%. Also was a perfect 14/14 at the line (guess you don't get fouled much when you pretty much never go inside). He's fifth in returning minutes, so I'd think he will play even more next year and be able to fire up more shots from long-range.

"REALLY likes to shoot the long ball" probably s/b "REALLY prefers to shoot the long ball in those rare instances when he shoots"... only once in his career has he made more than two 3-pointers in a game, a''ina? That %Shots is tiny.

[brewcity77]

"REALLY likes to shoot the long ball" probably s/b "REALLY prefers to shoot the long ball in those rare instances when he shoots"... only once in his career has he made more than two 3-pointers in a game, a''ina? That %Shots is tiny.

Very true, but that disparity is just insane. I wonder how many guys took as many shots and around 90% beyond the arc.

Final opponent was just announced, SIU-Edwardsville on December 21st. Former Marquette player Jon Harris is the coach. This is probably the worst team on the slate, but you get the alumni connection and there's always a dog or two on every schedule. However...there is upside to this as well. They play in the Ohio Valley, which is a solid conference, and Harris scheduled tougher than his predecessor ever did, so the opponent's opponents factor should be good for us from this game. Further, they return their 4 of their top 6 players in terms of minutes and top 2 scorers. They do lose PG CJ Carr to transfer, but have a senior who missed most of the season who can step in and five incoming freshmen. I expect they'll be better in Harris' second season.

All in all, a good schedule. I'll have a lot more thoughts on the specifics, but we shouldn't have more than 2-3 teams that are single-digit wins, which means not many opponents that really drag down the RPI. Good quality at the top, but not an opponent on the schedule that isn't beatable. If we go 9-3 against this schedule and win 19 total games, we should have a good chance at making the tournament.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Wednesday, Dec 21st
SIU-EDWARDSVILLE

Coach by Jon Harris

I see Brew beat me to it. Hard to tell on my phone. 

[Jay Bee]

Very true, but that disparity is just insane. I wonder how many guys took as many shots and around 90% beyond the arc.[\quote]

Seems almost impossible, but I think Max Hooper of Oakland shot more than 250 times last year and NEVER inside the 3-point line

[brewcity77]

It does seem almost impossible, but you're right. 117/257 and all his attempts were from outside the arc. Top-10 in the country in offensive efficiency and eFG%, as well as 21st in 3PFG%. Wow. Just bizarrely amazing.

[Jay Bee]

It does seem almost impossible, but you're right. 117/257 and all his attempts were from outside the arc. Top-10 in the country in offensive efficiency and eFG%, as well as 21st in 3PFG%. Wow. Just bizarrely amazing.

Just looked up his career #'s vs. D-I opponents.. 97.7% of his attempts were 3FGA's.

Knowing it's true, it's still difficult to believe. 6'6", too.

[GGGG]

Very true, but that disparity is just insane. I wonder how many guys took as many shots and around 90% beyond the arc.

In his senior year, Tim Jarmusz took 105 FGA.  89 of them were 3PA.

[brewcity77]

When you're the coach watching that guy drain a three against you, the thought has to be "HOW THE HELL DID YOU IDIOTS LEAVE HIM OPEN OUT THERE? I TOLD YOU HE ONLY SHOOTS THREES!!!!!"

[Marcus92]

If the past is any indication, probably 6 or 7 sub-300 RPI teams that prevent us from making the Dance again.

Using KenPom's end-of-season rankings, here's how the 2016-17 schedule stacks up against last year's:

#1 to #50
2016-17: 3 teams (Pitt/SMU, Vandy, UW)
2015-16: 2 teams (Iowa, UW)

#51 to #100
2016-17: 2 teams (Georgia, Michigan)
2015-16: 1 team (LSU)

#101 - #150
2016-17: 1 team (Fresno St.)
2015-16: 2 teams (ASU, Belmont)

#151- #200
2016-17: 1 team (W. Carolina)
2015-16: None

#201 - #250
2016-17: 1 team (IUPUI)
2015-16: 2 teams (IUPUI, Jackson St.)

#251 - #300
2016-17: 2 teams (Houston Baptist, St. Francis)
2015-16: 2 teams (San Jose St., Stetson)

#301 - #350
2016-17: 2 teams (Howard, SIU-Edwardsville)
2015-16: 4 teams (Grambling St., Maine, Chicago St., Presbyterian)

This obviously doesn't take into account players lost or added. But the eye test suggests we'll have a stronger schedule — potentially including 5 top 100 teams (vs. 3 last season) and just 5 rated 200 or worse (vs. 8 a year ago).

[Jay Bee]

Using KenPom's end-of-season rankings, here's how the 2016-17 schedule stacks up against last year's:

#1 to #50
2016-17: 3 teams (Pitt/SMU, Vandy, UW)
2015-16: 2 teams (Iowa, UW)

This is all fine and good until someone ax'es, "what is the relevance?"

SMU - new coach? Yep.
Pitt - new coach? Uhuh... via Vandy
Vandy - new coach? Oh yeah. Jones, Baldwin to NBA? Yeah...

I think the good thing is that we don't have any many certified, no doubt stinkers on the schedule. There are some teams that could certainly take an ugly step backwards in 2016-17 and that's scary... but, last year there was a hefty group of sure-shot bottom of the barrel teams that all but guaranteed an unfavorable NC sked from an RPI (diff than KenPom, of course, but also KenPom) perspective.

[Marcus92]

This is all fine and good until someone ax'es, "what is the relevance?"

SMU - new coach? Yep.
Pitt - new coach? Uhuh... via Vandy
Vandy - new coach? Oh yeah. Jones, Baldwin to NBA? Yeah...

I think the good thing is that we don't have any many certified, no doubt stinkers on the schedule. There are some teams that could certainly take an ugly step backwards in 2016-17 and that's scary... but, last year there was a hefty group of sure-shot bottom of the barrel teams that all but guaranteed an unfavorable NC sked from an RPI (diff than KenPom, of course, but also KenPom) perspective.

Agreed that this is of limited use — beyond looking at the schedule from a very broad perspective. But even replacing a couple sub-300 teams with teams in the 100-200 range could make a huge difference in our chances to make the NCAA tournament. Then, of course, we need to win a few against good opponents and avoid losing to the poor teams.

[warriorstrack]

Using KenPom's end-of-season rankings, here's how the 2016-17 schedule stacks up against last year's:

#1 to #50
2016-17: 3 teams (Pitt/SMU, Vandy, UW)
2015-16: 2 teams (Iowa, UW)

#51 to #100
2016-17: 2 teams (Georgia, Michigan)
2015-16: 1 team (LSU)

#101 - #150
2016-17: 1 team (Fresno St.)
2015-16: 2 teams (ASU, Belmont)

#151- #200
2016-17: 1 team (W. Carolina)
2015-16: None

#201 - #250
2016-17: 1 team (IUPUI)
2015-16: 2 teams (IUPUI, Jackson St.)

#251 - #300
2016-17: 2 teams (Houston Baptist, St. Francis)
2015-16: 2 teams (San Jose St., Stetson)

#301 - #350
2016-17: 2 teams (Howard, SIU-Edwardsville)
2015-16: 4 teams (Grambling St., Maine, Chicago St., Presbyterian)

This obviously doesn't take into account players lost or added. But the eye test suggests we'll have a stronger schedule — potentially including 5 top 100 teams (vs. 3 last season) and just 5 rated 200 or worse (vs. 8 a year ago).

There's one thing I want you to do for me
WIN

[Marcus92]

Strength of schedule is one thing. Winning is another. Here's a look at how our non-conference season could play out.

#1 to #50
2016-17: 3 teams (Pitt/SMU, Vandy, UW)
2015-16: 2 teams (Iowa, UW)

#51 to #100
2016-17: 2 teams (Georgia, Michigan)
2015-16: 1 team (LSU)

We went 2-1 against top 100 teams in non-conference play a year ago. Can we win 3 out of 5 here? That would be a great result in my book. My guess is that UW, Michigan and on the road at Georgia will be the toughest games (in that order). As Jay Bee pointed out, Pitt, SMU and Vandy have new coaches which should work in our favor.

#101 - #150
2016-17: 1 team (Fresno St.)
2015-16: 2 teams (ASU, Belmont)

#151- #200
2016-17: 1 team (W. Carolina)
2015-16: None

Belmont was a decent team a year ago, but losing to them in the opener was a crusher. We need wins against both Fresno St. and Western Carolina.

#201 - #250
2016-17: 1 team (IUPUI)
2015-16: 2 teams (IUPUI, Jackson St.)

#251 - #300
2016-17: 2 teams (Houston Baptist, St. Francis)
2015-16: 2 teams (San Jose St., Stetson)

#301 - #350
2016-17: 2 teams (Howard, SIU-Edwardsville)
2015-16: 4 teams (Grambling St., Maine, Chicago St., Presbyterian)

We didn't lose any games last year to teams ranked below 200 — although IUPUI took us to overtime and Stetson was closer than expected. Anything less than a clean sweep could bode trouble.

Without knowing much about how good the top of the schedule will be, I hope we come out of the gate strong at 10-2. Overly optimistic? We'll see.

[phoenixphan87]

@Fieldof68Freak From Minnesota Message Board

29 of the 75 Power 6 programs have complete non-conference schedules.

Overall Schedule Rankings
1 Kansas (100.75) -- @ #6 Kentucky
2 Xavier (107.09) -- @ #28 Baylor
3 Pitt (131.666) -- vs. #17 SMU
4 Arizona State (138.181) -- vs. #6 Kentucky
5 Arizona (139.583) -- vs. #5 Michigan State
6 Butler (142.727) -- vs. #15 Indiana
7 Duke (146.75) -- vs. #4 Kansas
8 Wake Forest (147.4) -- @ #11 Xavier
9 Baylor (150.272) -- #11 Xavier
10 Ole Miss (154.636) -- #28 Baylor
11 UCLA (156.181) -- @ #6 Kentucky
12 Purdue (158.916) -- #1 Villanova
13 Nebraska (161.3) -- @ #4 Kansas
14 Ohio State (166.538) -- @ #3 Virginia
15 Iowa (167.833) -- vs. #3 Virginia
16 Oklahoma (171.5) -- vs. #8 Wichita State
17 Washington (172.909) -- @ #18 Gonzaga
18 Marquette (173.636) -- vs. #31 Vanderbilt
19 Colorado (180) -- #11 Xavier
20 Creighton (184.09) -- #33 Wisconsin
21 Maryland (187.25) -- #43 Pitt
22 Iowa State (191.6) -- @ #23 Iowa
23 Providence (199.833) -- vs. #72 Memphis
24 Mississippi State (203.1) -- #67 Oregon State
25 Northwestern (205) -- @ #32 Butler
26 Kansas State (213.333) -- @ #115 Tennessee
27 Washington State (231) -- vs. #37 Creighton
28 Utah (238.1) -- @ #11 Xavier
29 DePaul (242.583) -- @ #78 Northwestern

Home Schedule Rankings
1 Xavier (124.428) -- #39 Utah
2 Kansas (135.666) -- #96 Long Beach State
3 Pitt (153.625) -- #42 Yale
4 Ole Miss (163.555) -- #28 Baylor
5 Baylor (165) -- #11 Xavier
6 Arizona (172) -- #75 UC-Irvine
7 Wake Forest (172) -- #92 LSU
8 UCLA (177.25) -- #58 Michigan
9 Duke (182.714) -- #5 Michigan State
10 Washington (182.714) -- #42 Yale
11 Butler (187) -- #34 Cincinnati
12 Ohio State (188.6) -- #26 Connecticut
13 Mississippi State (191.25) -- #67 Oregon State
14 Arizona State (198.285) -- #37 Creighton
15 Colorado (200.375) -- #11 Xavier
16 Creighton (202.375) -- #33 Wisconsin
17 Purdue (202.5) -- #1 Villanova
18 Oklahoma (207) -- #41 Florida
19 Maryland (210.777) -- #43 Pitt
20 Iowa (212.222) -- #16 Iowa State
21 Nebraska (214.571) -- #37 Creighton
22 Marquette (218.875) -- #33 Wisconsin
23 Providence (222) -- #82 Rhode Island
24 Kansas State (229) -- #119 Green Bay
25 Iowa State (235.166) -- #34 Cincinnati
26 Northwestern (259.222) -- #125 Wake Forest
27 Washington State (266.714) -- #212 Idaho
28 Utah (271.875) -- #32 Butler
29 DePaul (286.333) -- #117 Milwaukee

NCAA Qualifiers/*Postseason Champions on Schedule
Xavier (6): Baylor, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Utah
Baylor (5): Florida Gulf Coast, Oregon, Southern, VCU, Xavier
Iowa (5): Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Virginia
Ohio State (5): Connecticut, Fairleigh Dickinson, North Carolina-Asheville, Providence, Virginia
Arizona (4): Bakersfield, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Texas A&M
Butler (4): Cincinnati, Indiana, Utah, Vanderbilt
Kansas (4): Duke, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina-Asheville
Northwestern (4): Butler, Colorado/Notre Dame, Dayton, Texas
Arizona State (3): Kentucky, Northern Iowa, Purdue
Iowa State (3): Cincinnati, Iowa, Vanderbilt
Marquette (3): Michigan, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
Nebraska (3): Dayton, Kansas, Southern
Pitt (3): Buffalo, Maryland, Yale
Washington (3): Gonzaga, *Nevada, Yale
Colorado (2): Notre Dame, Xavier
Creighton (2): Buffalo, Wisconsin
Duke (2): Kansas, Michigan State
Kansas State (2): Green Bay, Hampton
Maryland (2): Pitt, Stony Brook
Oklahoma (2): Wichita State, Wisconsin
Ole Miss (2): Baylor, Middle Tennessee
Purdue (2): Notre Dame, *Villanova
UCLA (2): Kentucky, Michigan
Utah (2): Butler, Xavier
DePaul (1): Temple
Mississippi State (1): Oregon State
Wake Forest (1): Xavier
Providence (0)
Washington State (0)

[Jay Bee]

^^^ if only last year's results impacted RPI or anything else......

[fjm]

Nice work Phoenixphan.

[Windyplayer]

When you're the coach watching that guy drain a three against you, the thought has to be "HOW THE HELL DID YOU IDIOTS LEAVE HIM OPEN OUT THERE? I TOLD YOU HE ONLY SHOOTS THREES!!!!!"

Right, it's like a shift in baseball, just over commit by sticking on him beyond the arc and if he scores an easy lay-up, make him do it again and again...then adjust.

[Marcus92]

^^^ if only last year's results impacted RPI or anything else......

Obviously, last year's results don't impact this season's RPI. But until the season actually begins, they're one of the best indicators of schedule strength we have.

Look at Ken Pomeroy's season-end rankings for Marquette over the past 15 years. Our average ranking was 46.6 — meaning that, on average, we've been a top 50 program. MU finished in the top 50 in 10 out of 15 seasons. We were still top 100 (76th, 93rd and 95th) in 3 others, just missing the top 100 (106th and 110th) in 2.

Now compare that to Chicago State, for example. Their average ranking: 286.0. They've finished 250th or worse in 9 out of the past 15 seasons — including the past 7 years. Since 2001-02, Pomeroy hasn't ranked Chicago St. higher than 200th.

My point is, if a team finished top 50 or 300th a year ago, it's reasonable to project they'll be similarly competitive this year — in the absence of any other information, of course. Even when we finished dead last in the Big East two seasons ago, we still ranked in the top third of all Division I teams. And even when Chicago St. had its best season of the millennium, it didn't come close to being considered for postseason play.

Granted, it's a crude measure. But that doesn't make it useless.