"replacement" players

[auburnmarquette]

http://www.nycbuckets.com/2016/01/value-add-jameel-warney-dominos/

This is a bit in the weeds, but due to great editing by Big Apple Buckets, I believe this best explains the question some of you have asked over the years on how a "replacement" player makes sense in basketball. (see improvement No. 4)

rocky's edit: Move link from title to body of message, and add a title

[Lennys Tap]

So Henry is supposed to go between 4th and 7th in the NBA draft but he's the 328th ranked overall (and 23rd ranked freshman) in value added to our team. Sucks to be us.

[BrewCity83]

So maybe we won't miss him as much as everyone fears...

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

So Henry is supposed to go between 4th and 7th in the NBA draft but he's the 328th ranked overall (and 23rd ranked freshman) in value added to our team. Sucks to be us.

I give up on sports. This makes zero effing sense.

[Marcus92]

There are plenty of college players who provide incredible value to their teams at the Division I level — but their abilities and skill set don't translate to the NBA.

Luke Harangody of Notre Dame comes to mind. I don't know what his Value Add was, but he was a beast in college. Efficient, high-volume scorer, monster rebounder, 3-time All American. Scouts saw a undersized PF (less than 6'8") who wasn't very athletic. Drafted late in the second round, he played 70 games in the NBA (1 start), averaging under 4 ppg before bouncing around the D-League and then overseas.

College and the NBA are two almost completely different games.

[Marcus92]

From a Value Add standpoint, I suspect Henry is most hurting himself with his low field-goal and 3-point percentage. He's not playing incredibly efficient offense so far this season.

From an NBA scout's perspective, Henry has the size and skills they look for in a stretch 4 power forward — including sound mechanics and a good work ethic. The shot (and improved efficiency) should follow in time.

[martyconlonontherun]

From a Value Add standpoint, I suspect Henry is most hurting himself with his low field-goal and 3-point percentage. He's not playing incredibly efficient offense so far this season.

From an NBA scout's perspective, Henry has the size and skills they look for in a stretch 4 power forward — including sound mechanics and a good work ethic. The shot (and improved efficiency) should follow in time.

I think this shows where analytics are lacking. I don't know where it shows up when a guy demands double teams allowing his teammates to slash for an easy bucket. Also, how are his blocks and rebounds not pulling him up? Are those included in value add?

[Marcus92]

I think this shows where analytics are lacking. I don't know where it shows up when a guy demands double teams allowing his teammates to slash for an easy bucket. Also, how are his blocks and rebounds not pulling him up? Are those included in value add?

Like any statistic, Value Add has its limits.

The way I understand it (don't ask me how it's calculated), Value Add tries to take into account everything a player does that adds to his team's performance (including blocks and rebounds). Henry probably gets knocked for too many turnovers, as well. From an efficiency standpoint, a turnover is worse than a missed shot because you don't even get a chance at scoring points.

But there's a limit to what you can measure. Value Add can't tell you whether a player gets beat down the court on a fast break. It doesn't say anything about the perfect screen that freed up a teammate for an open shot. Value Add is a tool, one among many that scouts use in evaluating players.

[brewcity77]

Marcus is right, Henry's 3PFG% is an absolute killer. Honestly, he's hurting the entire team by taking the volume of threes he is in multiple ways. I should have something more detailed on this in the coming days.

Henry is a phenomenal player, but I really feel he's being used poorly. As good as he is, he could be much, much better (and not just because he's making freshman mistakes).

[MarquetteDano]

Henry is a phenomenal player, but I really feel he's being used poorly. As good as he is, he could be much, much better (and not just because he's making freshman mistakes).

I agree.  Wade's World mentioned in other thread we should get Henry the ball on the move and I agree.  I am not an offensive genius but there must be ways to get him the ball more in transition as a trailer and other situations where his defender has to guard him off the bounce without double teams.  And if the double comes after he is moving the rest of the team is a position to score when he passes it.

[Marcus92]

Henry's game would seem to be ideal for playing in the high post, between the free throw line and the top of the key, where Lazar and Jae excelled. Haven't really seen much of that this year.

Lazar and Jae were usually defended by bigger players, who weren't always comfortable away from the basket. If the defender laid off, they could hit the face-up jumper. If the defender committed, being in the middle of the floor presented multiple options: pass to the perimeter or a cutter, take a turnaround jumper or drive to the basket.

I think Henry has the skills to fill this role. He's got a really good shot out to at least 15 feet. His size should even give him an advantage over Lazar or Jae. But our offense doesn't seem to be designed for that — or if it is, it's not working very well.

Between Luke and Henry, our low-post game is definitely improved this year. But without many reliable outside shooters, seems like we need to look for other ways to open things inside for drives and post-ups.

[Herman Cain]

Marcus is right, Henry's 3PFG% is an absolute killer. Honestly, he's hurting the entire team by taking the volume of threes he is in multiple ways. I should have something more detailed on this in the coming days.

Henry is a phenomenal player, but I really feel he's being used poorly. As good as he is, he could be much, much better (and not just because he's making freshman mistakes).

I agree. I like Henry's skills but they are not being  used properly. His scoring and rebounding would increase  if he spent more time as a true inside big man.  Forget all the bringing the ball up the court and outside shots.  Be an Aircraft Carrier. I guarantee that is what he would be for Coach Izzo.

[Marcus92]

I agree. I like Henry's skills but they are not being  used properly. His scoring and rebounding would increase  if he spent more time as a true inside big man.  Forget all the bringing the ball up the court and outside shots.  Be an Aircraft Carrier. I guarantee that is what he would be for Coach Izzo.

The thing is, I'm not sure Henry makes a great aircraft carrier. He's got a pretty good post-up game — between his size, solid footwork and excellent hands. But at just 225 pounds, he doesn't have the strength to consistently establish position deep enough on the block.

It doesn't help that our guards have struggled with entry passes, or that our inconsistent perimeter shooting means opposing defenses can sag in or double-team to clog up the middle.

I'm confident that the pieces are there. We just need to figure out how to put them all together.

[auburnmarquette]

I give up on sports. This makes zero effing sense.

http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/2012/2/18/2808327/uconn-vs-marquette-final-score-recap-2012

The NBA indicators we give NBA teams measure how good the player should be in the pros - and they are completely different than the college Value Add.

For example, Andre Drummond was ranked 268th in Value Add in College and Jae Crowder was 2nd. It was no comparison. When they met Crowder scored 29 points, had 12 rebounds and finished fouling Drummond out by dunking on him for a 3-point play. Drummond sat with 7 points and 4 rebounds.

Crowder was a MUCH better college player than Drummond - no question. That's why Crowder was a second team All-American and Drummond was nothing. But no one ever doubted that Drummond would be be the better than Crowder in the NBA and be a lottery pick.

[martyconlonontherun]

The thing is, I'm not sure Henry makes a great aircraft carrier. He's got a pretty good post-up game — between his size, solid footwork and excellent hands. But at just 225 pounds, he doesn't have the strength to consistently establish position deep enough on the block.

It doesn't help that our guards have struggled with entry passes, or that our inconsistent perimeter shooting means opposing defenses can sag in or double-team to clog up the middle.

I'm confident that the pieces are there. We just need to figure out how to put them all together.

The entry pass is the biggest problem. We need to find away to allow him to get the ball early and post up in one motion. I don't know if he can start his post up move further out or what but he just needs the ball and backed down his man.

[auburnmarquette]

I think this shows where analytics are lacking. I don't know where it shows up when a guy demands double teams allowing his teammates to slash for an easy bucket. Also, how are his blocks and rebounds not pulling him up? Are those included in value add?

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2016/01/whats-wrong-with-henry.html
I posted a table on Cracked Sidewalks to show how much Henry shoots.

Rebounds and blocks are pulling Henry way up - but he has the 1830th best 2-point shooting percentage in the country and the 2323rd best three-point percentage. It's really hard to have 1800+ players shooting better than you at both - and make it near the top even with great rebounds and blocked shots.

It is rare that a player in the bottom few percent of player efficiency against good competition (87.2 points per 100 trips against 9 top 100 teams - 43% ON TWO-POINT attempts in those games, and on defense blocks just over half as many shots against tough opponents.)

Very few freshman are top 10%. He is awesome and the sky is the limit - but he is not yet simply taking over games like the very top players do. Many of those players are juniors and seniors - Henry is a great freshman.