The Larger Issue With College Basketball Attendance

[Tugg Speedman]

I put this in the Georgetown thread but I thought it was worthy of its own discussion.

--------------------

All NCAA D1 has approx 5,000 games a year.  225 to 250 neutral court games.

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/statistics/ncaa-mens-basketball-attendance
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/Reports/attend/2015.pdf

Year               All D1 games                  Neutral court games
2015                    4,754                                   6,381
2014                    4,817                                   6,854
2013                    4,921                                   7,091
2012                    4,994                                   7,219
2011                    5,025                                   7,610
2010                    5,038                                   7,551
2009                    5,185                                   7,213
2008                    5,325                                   7,379
2007                    5,327                                   7,968

Since 2011 all college basketball has lost 11% of its attendance, 20% for neutral court games!  Has the new Big East, in total, declined by more than 11%?

Why?  I think three reasons:

1) proliferation of HD TVs and HD broadcasts since 2007

2) New sports contracts and TV networks so now virtually every game is broadcast nationally (in HD)

3) John Calipari and Coach K.  The one and done model is hurting the casual viewers interest.  Once they learn who the stars are, they leave.  No continuity from year to year for the causal fan.

[wadesworld]

Yippee!  Now we're getting each new Heisenberg response turned into its own thread!

[Tugg Speedman]

The attached shows MU has done much better than the average D1 school.  All its loss in attendance came last year, thanks to its disastrous record. MU worlds and worlds better than Georgetown.

[The Equalizer]

I put this in the Georgetown thread but I thought it was worthy of its own discussion.

--------------------

All NCAA D1 has approx 5,000 games a year.  225 to 250 neutral court games.

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/statistics/ncaa-mens-basketball-attendance
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/Reports/attend/2015.pdf

Year               All D1 games                  Neutral court games
2015                    4,754                                   6,381
2014                    4,817                                   6,854
2013                    4,921                                   7,091
2012                    4,994                                   7,219
2011                    5,025                                   7,610
2010                    5,038                                   7,551
2009                    5,185                                   7,213
2008                    5,325                                   7,379
2007                    5,327                                   7,968

Since 2011 all college basketball has lost 11% of its attendance, 20% for neutral court games!  Has the new Big East, in total, declined by more than 11%?

Why?  I think three reasons:

1) proliferation of HD TVs and HD broadcasts since 2007

2) New sports contracts and TV networks so now virtually every game is broadcast nationally (in HD)

3) John Calipari and Coach K.  The one and done model is hurting the casual viewers interest.  Once they learn who the stars are, they leave.  No continuity from year to year for the causal fan.

You answered the question--but then excluded it from your possibilities.  its the proliferation of neutral court games due to the 2006 rule change for exempt tournaments.

Your estimate of 225 to 250 neutral site games vastly understates the total games added from these exempt tournaments.
http://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2013/12/2/5166356/2015-16-college-basketball-early-season-tournaments-events-MTE

First, just because they're played at campus sites doesn't mean they're going to attract above-average attendance.  IUPUI and Belmont were never going to increase MU's average, and given the proliferation of teams that already average sub 5000--even before adding a couple of additional "tournament" campus site games, its no wonder average attendance overall is pulled down.

Second, aside from Maui and a few others, in many cases the entire brackets are lousy. Take a look at the "Global Sports Classic in Las Vegas. 

Third, many of the fans of these teams don't travel.  Do you really think Southern or Eastern Illinois sent a large contingent for their games against Grand Canyon or Marshall?

Fourth many venues are crackerjack Lahaina Civic Center has a capacity of 2400 for the Maui Invitational.  Others are so hard to get to or have expensive housing (Orlando during Thanksgiving week isn't cheap, and NYC is always expensive).  Or you may have to buy tickets to all games--not just your team.

Finally, you're sharing the overall NCAA stats, which reflect the 20 or so additional NCAA teams added since 2005.  Since most of them when added have poor performance and low attendance, you're going to see the average attendance decline.  For a true comparison, you'd have to exclude any team that wasn't playing NCAA D1 in 2006.

[Tugg Speedman]

Number of D1 neutral court games

2015 = 282
2014 = 251
2013 = 234
2012 = 230
2011 = 235
2010 = 221
2009 = 233
2008 = 217
2007 = 224

You have a point over the last two years as the number of neutral court games is up significantly.

But even adjusting for the potential that they are played in smaller arena and over-saturating the market, attendance at neutral court games is down 20% since 2007, adding 15 or 20 more games does not explain this big a drop in the average.

I started the data above in 2007 so they are post the 2005 increase in D1 by 20 and the 2006 neutral court change you note.  And the data shows consistent drop every year.

The larger point is attendance for college basketball is declining, down 11% since 2007.  Keep this in mind the next time someone says BE attendance is down (suggesting the league is a failure).  It is down across the board , the question is if a particular team or league down more than the average?

In the case of MU (table above) they are down far less than the average.  In the case of Georgetown they are down far more than the average (39%). 

[GGGG]

As the relative cost of tickets have been increasing (cost of tickets, donation, parking, time) when compared to not having tickets (save money, watch games on television, record them to watch later), it makes perfect sense that attendance decreases.

This isn't necessarily a problem if the television contracts bring in more revenue than that attendance that is lost.

[Tugg Speedman]

As the relative cost of tickets have been increasing (cost of tickets, donation, parking, time) when compared to not having tickets (save money, watch games on television, record them to watch later), it makes perfect sense that attendance decreases.

This isn't necessarily a problem if the television contracts bring in more revenue than that attendance that is lost.

+1

This idea was started by a post that said BE attendance was down since the league revamped three years ago.  The implication was the league was failing simply because attendance was down.

Falling attendance is happening for these reasons, which are largely in agreement with the reasons in the first post, and it's happening everywhere.

In fact the new stadium in Milwaukee is a recognition of this.  It will have a smaller capacity that the BC.  And, get ready for tickets to cost upwards of $75 to $100/game (best seats).  Too much, that's ok, you can watch it at home as that is where the money is made.  Total attendance is becoming less and less relevant and less and less meaningful a measure.

[GGGG]

BE attendance is probably falling also because they play in huge arenas compared to the sizes of their fan base.  Demand for UW tickets can go down, but since their fan base is larger, you still have plenty of fans to fill up the Kohl Center despite its size.  It would be interesting to see how many UW season tickets are not renewed over the next couple of years should their performance fall off - and how many of those tickets are purchased by someone else.

The Big East is just fine in this regard.

[MU82]

I put this in the Georgetown thread but I thought it was worthy of its own discussion.

--------------------

All NCAA D1 has approx 5,000 games a year.  225 to 250 neutral court games.

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/statistics/ncaa-mens-basketball-attendance
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/Reports/attend/2015.pdf

Year               All D1 games                  Neutral court games
2015                    4,754                                   6,381
2014                    4,817                                   6,854
2013                    4,921                                   7,091
2012                    4,994                                   7,219
2011                    5,025                                   7,610
2010                    5,038                                   7,551
2009                    5,185                                   7,213
2008                    5,325                                   7,379
2007                    5,327                                   7,968

Since 2011 all college basketball has lost 11% of its attendance, 20% for neutral court games!  Has the new Big East, in total, declined by more than 11%?

Why?  I think three reasons:

1) proliferation of HD TVs and HD broadcasts since 2007

2) New sports contracts and TV networks so now virtually every game is broadcast nationally (in HD)

3) John Calipari and Coach K.  The one and done model is hurting the casual viewers interest.  Once they learn who the stars are, they leave.  No continuity from year to year for the causal fan.

You're not really blaming Calipari and K for 1-and-dones, are you?

[LAZER]

NFL attendance is down, NCAA Football attendance is down too. Maybe it's more to do with people preferring to stay home.

[Skitch]

NFL attendance is down, NCAA Football attendance is down too. Maybe it's more to do with people preferring to stay home.

10 years ago I had a crappy 27 inch console TV and now I have a 50 inch HD TV That I paid nearly the same as the crappy 27 incher.  10-15 games available on a college football Saturday.  NFL Sunday Ticket and Red Zone on Sunday.  No worrying about parking, traffic, dealing with idiots, overpriced food and drinks.  The at home experience has improved so much in these few years.  Its hard sometimes to compete with that, especially in the dead of winter in Milwaukee.

[jsglow]

As the relative cost of tickets have been increasing (cost of tickets, donation, parking, time) when compared to not having tickets (save money, watch games on television, record them to watch later), it makes perfect sense that attendance decreases.

This isn't necessarily a problem if the television contracts bring in more revenue than that attendance that is lost.

I think you've hit on something here.  I myself have started to think that the product is a bit overpriced when one considers the weak cupcake schedule, the somewhat less impressive BEast, and the comfort associated with my 55 incher HD.  But what got me even more irked this year (mind you, I fully understand the rationale) is that MU Athletics hasn't lifted a finger for long time season ticket holders while at the same time coming up with super exciting promos for the more marginal fans to get butts in the seats.  Examples include the 'Young alum free beer' and the '$77 all conference games' promos.  Look, I'm all for those promos and I fully get the fact that the guy who drops $50K at the Blue/Gold auction (you think I'm kidding?) gets breakfast in bed from Wojo but I do think that we need to work on 'appreciation' and 'value' for the long time regular guy season ticket holder.

[brandx]

NFL attendance is down, NCAA Football attendance is down too. Maybe it's more to do with people preferring to stay home.

Is the bubble starting to burst? Are they pricing common fans out of the games?

The only Packers/Bucks/Brewers/MU games I attend are on freebies. The game experience is not worth $250 to go to Lambeau - even as much as I enjoy going once or twice a year.

I don't mind spending $200 - $300 on a concert I wanna see, but I can watch any game in the comfort of my home, hang with whatever friends I invite over at home and eat whatever I want at home.

The only time I will ever pay to see a game live is Playoff time.

[MUfan12]

But what got me even more irked this year (mind you, I fully understand the rationale) is that MU Athletics hasn't lifted a finger for long time season ticket holders while at the same time coming up with super exciting promos for the more marginal fans to get butts in the seats.  Examples include the 'Young alum free beer' and the '$77 all conference games' promos.  Look, I'm all for those promos and I fully get the fact that the guy who drops $50K at the Blue/Gold auction (you think I'm kidding?) gets breakfast in bed from Wojo but I do think that we need to work on 'appreciation' and 'value' for the long time regular guy season ticket holder.

Ya didn't like the Christmas card?

[Dr. Blackheart]

I think you've hit on something here.  I myself have started to think that the product is a bit overpriced when one considers the weak cupcake schedule, the somewhat less impressive BEast, and the comfort associated with my 55 incher HD.  But what got me even more irked this year (mind you, I fully understand the rationale) is that MU Athletics hasn't lifted a finger for long time season ticket holders while at the same time coming up with super exciting promos for the more marginal fans to get butts in the seats.  Examples include the 'Young alum free beer' and the '$77 all conference games' promos.  Look, I'm all for those promos and I fully get the fact that the guy who drops $50K at the Blue/Gold auction (you think I'm kidding?) gets breakfast in bed from Wojo but I do think that we need to work on 'appreciation' and 'value' for the long time regular guy season ticket holder.

What you are saying basically is the Law of Supply & Demand. I think Marquette and the BC have tried new things this season to improve the game experience:  The confetti launch, steam shooters, wifi, moving the students closer, slightly improved game times, food and beer choices and gathering places. Yes even the flag.  Heck, even the metal detectors have gone smoothly.  The Miller New Alum section was a credit from Learfield and a great idea to get the new grads to the games who are saddled with debt.

Under the previous regime, it was all about no and control whether with the coach, students and donors, the yearly seat selection process.  They even eliminated the hard copy of the media guide and limited giveaways to cards.  They eliminated the tee shirt gun to be PC. They alienated many as they took the F out of fun.

For season tickets, I view it as a long term investment. Some years are good, some bad or disappointing. Last year was the worst season in 50 years, so not a bad record over the long term.

That said, the schedule is weak and while other BE schools are scheduling rivals who left, MU schedules Stetson.  I think another factor is a large segment of long time ticket holders hitting retirement age with fixed incomes.  It is easier for them to stay at home as well.  A lot of empties in the lower bowl and the reseating process has caused them to rethink their investment.

One note on the Crean years: There were a lot of free ticket giveaways to groups.

[brewcity77]

For season tickets, I view it as a long term investment. Some years are good, some bad or disappointing. Last year was the worst season in 50 years, so not a bad record over the long term.

Agreed completely, which is why this season's schedule is so frustrating to me. Okay, last year's results sucked, fine, but I don't want to give up my season tickets because I lose those points and don't want to stop my B&G donations for the same reason. To ultimately get the seats I want, I need to keep up with my tickets and donations at my current level. For my investment to pay off in the future, I can't stop supporting at my current level now.

That said, the schedule is weak and while other BE schools are scheduling rivals who left, MU schedules Stetson.  I think another factor is a large segment of long time ticket holders hitting retirement age with fixed incomes.  It is easier for them to stay at home as well.  A lot of empties in the lower bowl and the reseating process has caused them to rethink their investment.

And this is what makes it so hard to vote with the wallet. I've been a STH for about 5-6 years now. I am just now able to afford the lower bowl, and knowing that the increased donation from lower bowl tickets will help my points accrue faster, the long-term aspect of this makes it hard for me to give them up. MU schedules a crappy bunch of teams, I'm still going to make my B&G donations and buy season tickets because I plan to have them for at least the next 18 years. You don't get into the sweater vest sections by giving up your tickets 25% of the way into the process.

[MU82]

UNC-Charlotte played at Appalachian State on Saturday.

App State students are on break, and the App State football team was playing in a televised bowl game at the same time. Plus, App State is a football school and not a basketball school; fans will travel from Charlotte or Raleigh to Boone a couple hours away to watch a football game but don't give a rat's rump about the basketball team. And UNCC has been ignored for years now.

Announced attendance: 376.

[Tugg Speedman]

Why do you think the Bucks (and by extension MU) were desperate for a new stadium.  They need to make the entire experience a"an event."  That way they can charge you $30 for upper bowl seats to Chicago State!

[MUMonster03]

Why?  I think three reasons:

1) proliferation of HD TVs and HD broadcasts since 2007

2) New sports contracts and TV networks so now virtually every game is broadcast nationally (in HD)

3) John Calipari and Coach K.  The one and done model is hurting the casual viewers interest.  Once they learn who the stars are, they leave.  No continuity from year to year for the causal fan.

You also have to take into account that many traditional rivalries have been destroyed due to constant realignment. Maybe as more of these rivalries are rebuilt during non-conference it will help, but who in the Big 10 really wants to go see their team play Rutgers and Nebraska?

i.e. Butler in 3 conferences in last 5 years, Maryland to Big 10, etc.

[We R Final Four]

The only Packers/Bucks/Brewers/MU games I attend are on freebies. The game experience is not worth $250 to go to Lambeau - even as much as I enjoy going once or twice a year.

The only time I will ever pay to see a game live is Playoff time.

You won't ever pay for a Marquette ticket?

I get that Lambeau is very expensive, but you can get to MU games relatively cheaply.

[Tugg Speedman]

You won't ever pay for a Marquette ticket?

I get that Lambeau is very expensive, but you can get to MU games relatively cheaply.

Until the new stadium, yes.  Once the new stadium is built, prices will go higher.

[Loose Cannon]

10 years ago I had a crappy 27 inch console TV and now I have a 50 inch HD TV That I paid nearly the same as the crappy 27 incher.  10-15 games available on a college football Saturday.  NFL Sunday Ticket and Red Zone on Sunday.  No worrying about parking, traffic, dealing with idiots, overpriced food and drinks.  The at home experience has improved so much in these few years.  Its hard sometimes to compete with that, especially in the dead of winter in Milwaukee.

This captures  it for me.  How do you compete with these?  And the best part is if the game is a Stinker, I push a button and I'm somewhere else.

I would guess as attendance goes down, TV viewing goes up and that makes Ad sponsors happy.

[Goose]

As I get older I find it more and more difficult to get jacked up to go to 95% of  the games. For years MU games was my favorite winter social time, love seeing old friends at halftime and the bad games did not matter that much. Now, with bad games on TV I find myself needing to convince myself why I should go to the game.

The game tonight is a perfect example, it is early start time and BC very close to my office and I want to see Henry play as much as possible in MU uniform and am on the fence. The world has changed so much in last ten years and I see attendance shrinking at all sports in the future. It really is sad because my parents would drive from Tosa to Mecca in a snowstorm to watch MU blow Xavier out on Thursday night and I struggle to make three minute ride to BC on warm December night.

[jsglow]

Until the new stadium, yes.  Once the new stadium is built, prices will go higher.

Perhaps.  But the laws of economics do work.  Raise the ticket/donation price too high and watch attendance plummet.

Personally I think MU is already bumping up against the upper limit of what most folks will tolerate.  Reminded by this thread to put our tickets for tonight in my wallet, it reads $23.76.  We all know tonight's game could be purchased on stubhub for $5 and I'm recalling that my own daughter's seat cost less than the beer they give her at the game.  Now admittedly, our seats are exactly where we want them but it's still an investment that seemingly fewer and fewer people are making.

I also agree that they've improved the game-day experience with the cannons, etc. and we really do enjoy attending even with the distance we travel but there's a limit out there somewhere.

Funny, as we were silently witnessing the Iowa debacle, I told chick we were headed back to the $125ers next year where we started several years ago (originally at $99).  I sincerely hope this year's result and prospects for next year don't force me to revisit that conversation over Memorial Day weekend.

Anyway, if you want to buy chick a beer tonight it'll be easy to find us. 

[mujivitz06]

I don't think anyone has hit what is really happening.

The proliferation of social media has replaced our social systems of community building with artificial ones. I really believe it's that simple.

Humans re-think live events as somewhere to come together with a community and build a social system because it's done online.

Same reason no one goes to high school reunions anymore.