Thoughts on Matthews' Play

[WashDCWarrior]

Statistically Matthews is down this year.

Category          2007   2006
Points              8.9     12.6
Rebounds         4.3      5.3
Assists             1.0      2.2
Steals              0.9      1.4
Turnovers         2.6      2.5

His minutes are down slightly from 31.2 to 28.9, but that's probably due to playing 'lesser' opponents during non-conference schedule, thus giving reserves more playing time.

His overall shooting percentages are relatively similar, excluding 3-pointers which is a very small sample size.

Category      2007      2006
FG%            .429       .438
3PT%          .231       .288
FT%            .773       .770

It would be easy to make the argument that the improved play of Hayward and Cubillan has taken away shot attempts from Matthews, but he just looks different than last year.

He doesn't appear to be as aggressive in going to the basket or drawing fouls.  Almost like he goes into games trying to avoid mistakes, rather than play his game.  He also seems comfortable being the 4th or 5th scoring option.  You could call this unselfish, but we're going to need more out of him during conference play.

[rocky_warrior]

Hmmm, I'd be interested to see his stats at the beginning of last year (through UW), compared to the same time period this year.  Seems like he started out slow then too.

[WashDCWarrior]

I'm hoping it's just a slow start also, and he'll pick it up once we get into conference play.  I'd feel a lot better if he goes for 18 and 8 with 10 FT attempts against Sac State, though.

[bma725]

Hmmm, I'd be interested to see his stats at the beginning of last year (through UW), compared to the same time period this year.  Seems like he started out slow then too.

He did improve as the season went on last year, but he didn't start off quite as bad.  The only areas where he's better so far this year are 3P% and FT%.  I didn't use the UW game as the cut off, as last year UW was the 11th game that MU played, this year it was the 7th.  So through 7 games last year Matthews averaged:

Minutes Played: 30.0
PPG: 11.7
RPG: 4.8
APG: 1.8
SPG: 1.2
TPG: 2.4
FG%: .460
3PT%: .230
FT%:  .615

FWIW here are his stats from the first 7 games his freshman year.

Minutes: 23.5
PPG: 9.85
RPG: 4.0
APG: 2.4
SPG: 1.8
TPG: 2.5
FG%: .408
3P%: .571(only 7 attempts)
FT%: .781

[WadeDienerNovak]

Wes has had a slight regression, but we are only seven games in so it is more likely that he is in a slump that he can work through. I think the reality is that any noticeable regression on Wesley's part would have been compounded in the minds of fans by their expectations coming into this season. Many people, myself included, expected Wes to take a large step forward this year, and that has not been the case thus far. I don't think he's substantially worse than last year, but he is substantially worse than I expected him to be this year. Sometimes as a fan it's difficult to distinguish between expectations and reality. 

[Henry Sugar]

Nice thread, and good idea to see if he started slowly in his first seven games in the last two years.  The decline by Matthews has particularly puzzled me.  In the last two years, he's been a more efficient offensive player than both McNeal and James.  Since they have both improved YoY, it's a little surprising to see that he has not.

Surprisingly, I didn't find a whole lot of difference

05-06
First Seven Games     Rest of Season
FG%   - .408               .399
3FG% - .571                .438
FT%   - 78.1%             79%
PPWS - 1.075              1.030
Usage - N/A                10%
% of Min - 59%            46% (was injured)

06-07
First Seven Games     Rest of Season
FG%   - .460               .438
3FG% - .381                .288
FT%   - 62%                77%
PPWS - 1.09                1.1
Usage - N/A                17%
% of Min - 75%            71%

If anything, a number of these figures either stay reasonably consistent or get worse for the season!

Now, for 07-08
First Seven Games     
FG%   - .429               
3FG% - .231               
FT%   - 77%               
PPWS - 1.04               
Usage - 13%               
% of Min - 72%           

A lot of these numbers are fairly consistent too.  My initial take is that the biggest difference is that he's on the court ~75% of the time like last year, but he's not as involved in offensive possessions as he was last year.  So it kind of looks like he's disappearing or contributing less. 

Is he playing a different role in the offense and defense?  Any other thoughts? 

[Henry Sugar]

Many people, myself included, expected Wes to take a large step forward this year, and that has not been the case thus far. I don't think he's substantially worse than last year, but he is substantially worse than I expected him to be this year. Sometimes as a fan it's difficult to distinguish between expectations and reality. 

This may be spot-on.  Well said.

[bma725]

A lot of these numbers are fairly consistent too.  My initial take is that the biggest difference is that he's on the court ~75% of the time like last year, but he's not as involved in offensive possessions as he was last year.  So it kind of looks like he's disappearing or contributing less. 

Is he playing a different role in the offense and defense?  Any other thoughts? 

I think his role this year compared to last year is different in one key area.  He's not playing PG as much. Remember early last year when Crean had that experiment to have DJ playing a bit of shooting guard with Wes as the PG?  That's not happening anymore.  DJ is playing almost all of his minutes at PG, and when he isn't Acker and Cubillan are playing the position, not Wes like he had in the past.  Since IMO Wes is a player who is at his best when he's got the ball in his hands and he can control the flow of the offense, it's only natural that the numbers decline.

The second, as someone mentioned is the growth of the players around him.  Even with the injury to Fitz and his role being diminished Cubillan and Hayward are doing a lot more than they were at this point last year. 

Hayward
         2006     2007
MPG:  13.8      24.9
PPG:   6.8       12.6
RPG:   3.5       5.9
FGA:   43        58
FTA:   7          22

Cubillan
         2006     2007
MPG:  20.4      22.3
PPG:   6.4       9.0
APG:   1.5       2.6
FGA:   25        48
FTA:   10        6

The most telling to me is the FGA stat.  Cubillan is barely playing more minutes than last year, but has attempted nearly twice as many shots.  Last year, he only had 1 game where he attempted more than 8 shots.  This year he's already had 4.  Hayward has already had 2 double digit attempt games, last year he had only 1 at this point.  And his low for the year is 5 attempts one time, last year he had 5 or fewer 3 times at this point.  Conversely, at this point last year Wes had taken 63 shots, this year only 49. 

Admittedly, that doesn't explain why his turnovers are up incrementally, or why he's averaging 1 less rebound and 1 less assist.  But I think the emergence of those other players has changed the offense in such away, that he's not the automatic 3rd option anymore.  Hayward has become a force on the team, and Cubillan is no longer gun shy, so the ball isn't being spread around as much anymore.

[Pardner]

Wes was also filling the McNeal role at the end of last year that got him more involved in the offense.  He was the dribble drive entry option which created a lot more free throw attempts for him.  If I remember, his FT% was in the 80% range in the back half of last year.  Henry, is Wes getting less FT attempts this season?  My guess TC will try to get him more involved on the O in the upcoming games to get him in a groove.

[bma725]

One more thing to consider, the offense this year is much more evenly spreadout.  It's not just Matthews who has his attempts down, the entire big 3 is shooting the ball less this year in terms of field goals and free throws. 

                  2006             2007
               FGA     FTA       FGA    FTA
James:       97      48       87      33     
McNeal:      94      31       89      27
Matthews:  63      26       49      22

Further, only McNeal has managed to improve his scoring on fewer attempts.  James is actually down more than Matthews, from 18.5 through 7 games last year to 15.4 through 7 this year....a difference of 3.1 to Matthews 2.8.

In fact when you look at the top 5 scorers from last year, all of whom returned to the team, every single one of them is shooting less than they did last year, and only McNeal has seen an increase in his PPG. 

Despite that, the team as a whole is averaging 80.7 PPG this year compared to 77.4 PPG last year.  I don't have the team stats through 7 games last year in front of me, but compared to the cumulative stats for last year, this team is also much better shooting wise.  Higher FG%(.493 to .436), higher FT%(.707 to .669) and higher 3P%(.344 to .333).  Granted its still early, but to is a sign that the other players have grown quite a bit, and the team is more offensively efficient, and more dangerous because of all the different scoring options this year.  Sure it's disappointing that Matthews hasn't turned into the player many thought he would, but it may be better for the team's success offensively if others carry more of the load.

[DonCornholeone]

Bottom line:  There are only so many shots to go around.  We all love Wes and he is an incredible player, and if there are opportunities for him to assert himself within the offense, more power to him.  But beyond that, we haven't had an as thickly cohesive and deep team since... I don't know when.  If Lazar wasn't finding his opportunities like he is now, a player like Wes would be.  The point is:  We have an awesome team, with a lot of players that can do a lot of things, who will just find a way to win.  Lots of guys who can do lots of things on lots of nights.  This is the kind of team that can GO FAR.  Can run with any team in the country, big or small.  We can do some special things this year.

[mviale]

wes is a nice player - he is consistent while Jerel and Dom can range from spectacular to "what was he thinking"

[NavinRJohnson]

He is not having the monster year I thought he would - yet. It almost looks as if he hasn't really settled into any sort of role yet and is playing just a bit tentative. Fitz's absence may have affected that somewhat as well. If there is a guy on the team who is going to be asked to do different things on any given night, it is undoubtedly Metthews. My crystal ball still says he will be a real SOB in the conference season. Too smart, athletic, and talented not to.

[Henry Sugar]

Henry, is Wes getting less FT attempts this season? 

A little bit less, but I don't think it's statistically significant

07-08   22 FTA
06-07   26 FTA
05-06   32 FTA

[Henry Sugar]

One more thing to consider, the offense this year is much more evenly spreadout.  It's not just Matthews who has his attempts down, the entire big 3 is shooting the ball less this year in terms of field goals and free throws. 

....

Sure it's disappointing that Matthews hasn't turned into the player many thought he would, but it may be better for the team's success offensively if others carry more of the load.

This is a good point as well.  bma, I like your style

Here are the usage (% of possessions) numbers for the players we've been discussing.

James - 22% (was 25% last year)
McNeal - 21% (was 21% last year)
Matthews - 14% (was 17% last year)
Cubillan - 11% (was 7% last year)
Hayward - 13% (was 8.5% last year)
Acker - 7% (n/a last year)

James consumed too much of the offense last year.  McNeal is actually flat in terms of usage this year.  Matthews  is down with big jumps from Cubillan, Hayward, and the introduction of Acker.

I guess my concern is that he's getting a similar number of minutes, but he's not as productive as he was last year.

Maybe it's all just much ado about nothing.  Taking the analysis hat off, I agree with Navin that he looks tentative and hasn't quite settled into a role just yet.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

I think I'm getting a cavity.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

One more thing to consider, the offense this year is much more evenly spreadout.  It's not just Matthews who has his attempts down, the entire big 3 is shooting the ball less this year in terms of field goals and free throws. 

....

Sure it's disappointing that Matthews hasn't turned into the player many thought he would, but it may be better for the team's success offensively if others carry more of the load.

This is a good point as well.  bma, I like your style

Here are the usage (% of possessions) numbers for the players we've been discussing.

James - 22% (was 25% last year)
McNeal - 21% (was 21% last year)
Matthews - 14% (was 17% last year)
Cubillan - 11% (was 7% last year)
Hayward - 13% (was 8.5% last year)
Acker - 7% (n/a last year)

James consumed too much of the offense last year.  McNeal is actually flat in terms of usage this year.  Matthews  is down with big jumps from Cubillan, Hayward, and the introduction of Acker.

I guess my concern is that he's getting a similar number of minutes, but he's not as productive as he was last year.

Maybe it's all just much ado about nothing.  Taking the analysis hat off, I agree with Navin that he looks tentative and hasn't quite settled into a role just yet.

Dynamite stuff, Henry.

Also interesting to note is that as a Frosh. Matthews (before he was hurt) was used a lot in the back-up PG position early in the season. He was handling the ball more than McNeal, for sure.

I know some people criticize his handle sometimes, but I actually think it's pretty good, and back then he displayed a nice pull-up jumper that would be nice to use against 2-3 zones. Haven't seen many pull-ups from Wes this year... seems like it's been 3's from the corner and driving all the way to the hoop.

My gut says Crean is very aware of what is going on, and in the next handful of games will design some plays that get Wes the ball in a position to score.

Also, it will be interesting to see how Lazar gets used against 2-3 zones. He's shown pretty good handles and is definitely a scorer with his ability to get his shot up over bigger players. I love putting versatile forwards in the high post against a 2-3 and giving them the option to shoot, drive or kick to the corner.

McNeal did it a little bit last year, but I think Lazar and/or Wes would be good options in this spot.

[dwaderoy2004]

here's the thing, when the ball is put in matthews hand, and the play is called for him, matthews is aggressive, and scores.  for example, the second offensive possesion of the wiscy game, matthews caught the ball near the threepoint line in the near corner, drove baseline, spun around his defender, and hit a floating layup.  second example, the play at the end of the first half in the wiscy game was called for matthews, and he drove and finished in traffic with a left-handed layup.  i just think his numbers are down slightly due to the improvement of hayward and cubillan (although i would argue cubillan shoots too much now...) and that he embraces the glue guy role, i.e., whatever it takes to win.

[Daniel]

He is outstanding cuttint to the hole - I'd like to see him create more inside scoring for us and drawing fouls by going to the hoop - his cuts are excellent.