Wisconsin This Year

[brewcity77]

Yesterday was huge. The most satisfying win I can remember by Marquette since the weekend double over Davidson and Butler in 2013. If this is off-topic, mods feel free to move, but having just played them, I figure now might be a good time to discuss UW.

Dakich yesterday said until proven otherwise, Wisconsin will be a top-4 Big 10 team. They are now 6-5, the most non-conference losses by a Bo Ryan team since 2001. With TAMU-CC and UWGB coming in, they should finish non-con 8-5, though Western Illinois and Milwaukee came into the Kohl with less chance (per Pomeroy) of beating Wisconsin than those two have now. So where does UW finish in conference play?

Bear in mind, the Badgers have to play the four of the top five teams in the Big 10 (Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana) twice and their only date with Iowa is on the road.

It looks like Purdue, Michigan State, and Maryland (combined 31-1, only loss UMD to UNC on the road) are going to be the conference's top three teams. In the mix for fourth would be Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. I looked at the schedule of those four teams. Wisconsin is the only one that plays four of the top-five projected teams twice. Looking at conference schedules in Pomeroy...
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• Iowa: Avg home rank: 63.6, Avg road rank: 74.6, Avg overall: 69.1. Plays Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana twice, and Maryland on the road. Second-toughest schedule of the five teams.
  
• Indiana: Avg home rank: 62.2, Avg road rank: 95.1, Avg overall: 78.7. Plays Iowa twice, gets Purdue and Maryland at home, MSU on the road. Paper thin schedule with most of their toughest games on home court.
  
• Michigan: Avg home rank: 74.3, Avg road rank: 71.7, Avg overall: 73.0. Plays Purdue, Maryland, and Iowa twice, gets Michigan State and Indiana at home. Most balanced schedule.
  
• Northwestern: Avg home rank: 99.1, Avg road rank: 62.6, Avg overall: 80.8. Plays Indiana twice, gets MSU at home, Purdue, Indiana, and Iowa on the road. Virtual cupcake home schedule and easiest overall schedule. Tough to say how good they are, but win the easy home games and steal 2-3 on the road and they could be sniffing their first ever NCAA bid.
  
• Wisconsin: Avg home rank: 70.8, Avg road rank: 57.7, Avg overall: 64.2. Plays MSU, Purdue, Indiana, and Maryland twice, Iowa on the road. The toughest road schedule and the toughest overall schedule.

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Wisconsin's tough schedule does give them the edge that even 10-8 in the league should get them in the NCAA discussion, but it really looks like they have the toughest Big 10 schedule. I just can't see any way this team, with that schedule, gets into the top-4 of the Big 10. They would probably need to go 12-6 in league, as the 4th placed Big 10 team has had that record 4 of the last 5 years. That means at worst going 3-6 against Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana (with 5 of those 9 games on the road) and undefeated against the rest of the league.

Honestly, I don't think the top-4 is even really a consideration. Which goes to the next question if they'll make the tournament. It's early, a ton can happen, but they probably need to win 10 Big 10 games to get on the bubble and 11 to be secure. Here's the schedule with Pomeroy rankings and current records included:

Home: 3 Purdue (11-0), 256 Rutgers (4-6), 17 Maryland (9-1), 3 Michigan State (11-0), 26 Indiana (8-3), 70 Ohio State (4-5), 114 Nebraska (6-4), 106 Illinois (6-5), 37 Michigan (7-3)
Road: 26 Indiana (8-3), 63 Northwestern (7-1), 148 Penn State (7-3), 106 Illinois (6-5), 17 Maryland (9-1), 8 Michigan State (11-0), 14 Iowa (7-3), 3, 134 Minnesota (5-5), Purdue (11-0)

So there's my word vomit of numbers. The good news is even if they finish 7-11 in league play, that's still enough for a top-100 road win 

[jsglow]

That's a lot to digest and there's lots more basketball to be played but I'll comment this way.  As it stands today, The BEast will get a larger percentage of its teams in the NCAA than the Big 10.  So if they get 6 (out of 14), we get 5, etc. 

Here's what I do know, if MU battles WI for that last at large bid we win by definition regardless if our cupcake was RPI rated 325 vs. 275.

[MU82]

Lots of stuff there, so I'll only offer this:

Northwestern is Northwestern. Every year, it's "Will this finally be the year?"

And every year, it isn't the year.

Koenig and Hayes are twice as good as any NW players. I'm no expert on NW's supporting cast, but I'll guess Bucky's supporting cast is better, too. And obviously, Bo knows how to coach while Collins, like Wojo, is still learning.

So I'll believe Northwestern finishes ahead of Wisconsin when I see it actually happen.

[bilsu]

WI next year will be really good again. There should be no way that Hayes and Koenig go pro. Koenig will never be a pro and I question whether Hayes will see much of the NBA either. Gard should be really glad Bo did not retire after Final 4. Assuming UW would still have 5 losses, if Gard was coaching this team, he would be run out of town.

[GGGG]

This UW team would have looked a lot better had Dekker stayed and Utoff not transferred. 

[MU82]

WI next year will be really good again. There should be no way that Hayes and Koenig go pro. Koenig will never be a pro and I question whether Hayes will see much of the NBA either. Gard should be really glad Bo did not retire after Final 4. Assuming UW would still have 5 losses, if Gard was coaching this team, he would be run out of town.

Excellent, excellent point about Gard. He indeed is fortunate Bo stayed for this season.

[Shark]

This UW team would have looked a lot better had Dekker stayed and Utoff not transferred.

Uthoff would have graduated last year had he not transferred.

[GooooMarquette]

Excellent, excellent point about Gard. He indeed is fortunate Bo stayed for this season.

I think the jury is still out on whether Barry hires Gard.  Even if he might be inclined to consider him, I don't think Barry wants people to believe Bo chose his successor.  Might be different if Bo had kept his mouth shut (publicly) about his successor.

[GGGG]

Uthoff would have graduated last year had he not transferred.

Not with the redshirt his freshman year.  He was a class of 2011 player.

[brewcity77]

WI next year will be really good again. There should be no way that Hayes and Koenig go pro. Koenig will never be a pro and I question whether Hayes will see much of the NBA either. Gard should be really glad Bo did not retire after Final 4. Assuming UW would still have 5 losses, if Gard was coaching this team, he would be run out of town.

Agreed, they'll be much improved next year.

And MU82, I'm not sold on Northwestern either, but they do have the easiest schedule of these teams. Were I a betting man, I'd say Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland, & Iowa are comfortably in and both Indiana and Michigan join them. Northwestern and Wisconsin both miss out.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This UW team would have looked a lot better had Dekker stayed and Utoff not transferred.

Well...yeah. Every team would look better if none of their players transferred or went pro. That's part of the game.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

Well...yeah. Every team would look better if none of their players transferred or went pro. That's part of the game.

Yep - I'm not exactly holding my breath for Henry Ellenson's senior season.

[keefe]

Yesterday was huge. The most satisfying win I can remember by Marquette since the weekend double over Davidson and Butler in 2013.

I agree that this might be a defining win in the Wojo era. Not only did he finally break .500 but he did so against a favored hated rival on their home court where they almost never lose.

We are not out of the woods yet but we may look back to yesterday's game as the turning point of our program.

[Slim]

I agree that this might be a defining win in the Wojo era. Not only did he finally break .500 but he did so against a favored hated rival on their home court where they almost never lose.

We are not out of the woods yet but we may look back to yesterday's game as the turning point of our program.

Yes, but the media will say it's the white t-shirts!

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Lots of stuff there, so I'll only offer this:

Northwestern is Northwestern. Every year, it's "Will this finally be the year?"

And every year, it isn't the year.

Koenig and Hayes are twice as good as any NW players. I'm no expert on NW's supporting cast, but I'll guess Bucky's supporting cast is better, too. And obviously, Bo knows how to coach while Collins, like Wojo, is still learning.

So I'll believe Northwestern finishes ahead of Wisconsin when I see it actually happen.

Bryant McIntosh is wayyy better than Koenig, and it's not even close. Demps reminds me of DJO and Olah I'd solid in the post. Falzon is pretty good as a freshman and Scotty Lindsey is a really good perimeter defender. Good depth too with Taphorn and Skelly coming off the bench.

Northwestern is good it's time to start realizing it. This is all without Vic Law too who got injured in the preseason.

Let me put it this way

McIntosh>Koenig
Demps>>>Showalter
Lindsey<Hays
Falzon=Brown
Olah<Happ (But just barely)
NU Bench>>>>>>>>UW Bench

[naginiF]

Yes, but the media will say it's the white t-shirts!

And I think there is a solid argument that the 'turning point' game was exactly that - Iowa.  Team focus and buy-in started after that bed wetting and the past weeks have built to the WI statement win.  They don't respond to that Iowa game the way the did and yesterday's win doesn't happen.

[82fanatic]

And I think there is a solid argument that the 'turning point' game was exactly that - Iowa.  Team focus and buy-in started after that bed wetting and the past weeks have built to the WI statement win.  They don't respond to that Iowa game the way the did and yesterday's win doesn't happen.

This. 

[MUDPT]

Their recruiting sucks.  Where is the Final Four "bounce?"  Cheatham, Carter, and Ellenson all signed after their first Final Four.  Cohen probably could have been had and Fischer could have transferred too, if Bo would have handled the Uthoff situation better.  Not saying that they should/ would have gotten all of these guys, but these are the caliber guys MU got after a non tournament season and a new coach (Fischer exception).   And these guys outplayed their guys (including 2 who were major players on back to back Final 4s) for 40 minutes.  They have no one signed for next year.  They thought they were bigger than Sam Hauser and I've heard that Joey is a Marquette lean at this point.

By the way, their students chanted "Hoosier Reject" as Fischer, which according to my brother in law (bigger IU fan than chicos), Indiana would gladly take him back at this point. And I can't wait for the first person to tell me at work tomorrow that they would rather have 4 years of Happ than a year of Ellenson.

Sorry for the rant, I live in Madison.

[Tugg Speedman]

St. Johns beat Syracuse 84-72. 

All of a sudden Bucky's 'cuse win doesn't look as impressive.

[mugrack]

....or Georgetown's Syracuse win either

[brewcity77]

Their recruiting sucks.  Where is the Final Four "bounce?"

Bo recruits really well for their system. He's done a good job of unearthing guys like Happ, Leuer, Nankivil, Kaminsky, and Berggren that can both bang inside and stretch the floor. They may not get as highly regarded of recruits, but they win because Bo gets guys who play the system and make it work.

As far as the Final Four bounce...the biggest recruit Crean got in the couple years after Wade was Dameon Mason. I suppose the Amigos could be attributed to the Final Four bounce, but it's not like we went to the Final Four and there was a sudden pipeline. I'm not sure that's the case for anyone unless they can translate it into sustained success the way a program like Duke did.

But I get the live in Madison aspect...that has to suck, especially for the past couple lean MU years.

[Tugg Speedman]

....or Georgetown's Syracuse win either

Yes but this thread is about Bucky

[ChicosBailBonds]

Their recruiting sucks.  Where is the Final Four "bounce?"  Cheatham, Carter, and Ellenson all signed after their first Final Four.  Cohen probably could have been had and Fischer could have transferred too, if Bo would have handled the Uthoff situation better.  Not saying that they should/ would have gotten all of these guys, but these are the caliber guys MU got after a non tournament season and a new coach (Fischer exception).   And these guys outplayed their guys (including 2 who were major players on back to back Final 4s) for 40 minutes.  They have no one signed for next year.  They thought they were bigger than Sam Hauser and I've heard that Joey is a Marquette lean at this point.

By the way, their students chanted "Hoosier Reject" as Fischer, which according to my brother in law (bigger IU fan than chicos), Indiana would gladly take him back at this point. And I can't wait for the first person to tell me at work tomorrow that they would rather have 4 years of Happ than a year of Ellenson.

Sorry for the rant, I live in Madison.

I'm not even that big of an IU fan.  In fact, way down my list.  I'd take their guards over our guards.  Maybe we can combine the two teams.   

[MU82]

Bryant McIntosh is wayyy better than Koenig, and it's not even close. Demps reminds me of DJO and Olah I'd solid in the post. Falzon is pretty good as a freshman and Scotty Lindsey is a really good perimeter defender. Good depth too with Taphorn and Skelly coming off the bench.

Northwestern is good it's time to start realizing it. This is all without Vic Law too who got injured in the preseason.

Let me put it this way

McIntosh>Koenig
Demps>>>Showalter
Lindsey<Hays
Falzon=Brown
Olah<Happ (But just barely)
NU Bench>>>>>>>>UW Bench

Let me put it this way: "We'll see."

In 2-3 months, we'll know if any of this is true. I kind of hope it is, because I like seeing long-time doormats turn things around. But counting on nothing in basketball from Northwestern has been pretty smart for the last, oh, forever.

[We R Final Four]

This UW team would have looked a lot better had Dekker stayed and Utoff not transferred.

Ummmm.........well yeah.
I agree, if this yers UW team had an NBA first rounder and a very solid top Big Ten player they certainly would have looked better.