Magic Formula for March (Round 1)

[WayOfTheWarrior]

Instead of jumping off the cliff of doom and gloom only 3 games into the season, I figured I could at least try to find some hope. Making the dance is what matters. History says 19 to 20 wins gets us in with a couple quality wins...usually. Here is one possibility.

8-5 non-con (even with present struggles, it's possible)
+ 10-8 conference (might be wishful thinking but I think we get out of this funk by conference play)
+ 1 or 2 tourney wins

= 19 to 20 wins

Win a couple more non-con games and the rest becomes less demanding, but it will be tough. It is the BEast after all.

Taking a sip of the blue and gold Koolaid isn't always bad though. Keeps the blood pressure down.

[GGGG]

8-5 non conference means we will lose to every decent non-conference opponent.  No way that MU makes the dance going 10-8 in conference because the RPI would be abysmal.

I think they are going to have to win 2 of the 3 remaining high caliber OOC games (Brooklyn, @UW) with 10 conference wins.  Or they are going to have to really get hot in conference.

[Herman Cain]

Instead of jumping off the cliff of doom and gloom only 3 games into the season, I figured I could at least try to find some hope. Making the dance is what matters. History says 19 to 20 wins gets us in with a couple quality wins...usually. Here is one possibility.

8-5 non-con (even with present struggles, it's possible)
+ 10-8 conference (might be wishful thinking but I think we get out of this funk by conference play)
+ 1 or 2 tourney wins

= 19 to 20 wins

Win a couple more non-con games and the rest becomes less demanding, but it will be tough. It is the BEast after all.

Taking a sip of the blue and gold Koolaid isn't always bad though. Keeps the blood pressure down.

That would get us there for sure. 10-8 conference would be highly respected.

[brewcity77]

We'll need at least 21 wins to make the NCAAs, more likely 22. This is a terribly weak non-conference and if our best non-con win is IUPUI we'll be in trouble.

Your formula won't do it. We'll need a combined 13 wins in the conference to feel safe. Whether that's an 11-7 Big East season and 2-1 at MSG, 12-6 and 1-1, or 13-5 and who cares about the Garden. Anything less will have us floating on the bubble (at best) come March.

[WayOfTheWarrior]

20 wins will do it if you have enough quality wins, but yes, with the limited number of quality opponents, it would be tough. As always, I root for the Big East to play well in non-con play. Unfortunately this isn't the old big east with 6 to 7 ranked teams to boost strength of schedule.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We'll need at least 21 wins to make the NCAAs, more likely 22. This is a terribly weak non-conference and if our best non-con win is IUPUI we'll be in trouble.

Your formula won't do it. We'll need a combined 13 wins in the conference to feel safe. Whether that's an 11-7 Big East season and 2-1 at MSG, 12-6 and 1-1, or 13-5 and who cares about the Garden. Anything less will have us floating on the bubble (at best) come March.

It might not do it, but it'll get you on the bubble. With the parity in CBB this year, there is going to be lots of losses, even for the higher se de.

That said, this schedule continues to be terrible for MU. Had the non-conf slate been flipped, or at least started the season with a few true buy games..that would have been ideal. Even a W against Belmont (who has subsequently lost to ASU and Evansville), would have my attitude much better. But after our next two games that I don't see us winning right now and Wisconsin, there is no opportunity for a quality win outside of the BE and we're playing the dregs of the NCAA. MUs RPI and SOS numbers are going to be real ugly, even if this team is completely different in 6 weeks.

[brewcity77]

20 wins will do it if you have enough quality wins, but yes, with the limited number of quality opponents, it would be tough. As always, I root for the Big East to play well in non-con play. Unfortunately this isn't the old big east with 6 to 7 ranked teams to boost strength of schedule.

But that's exactly it. If you are saying we go 8-5 in non-con, that's zero quality wins outside the Big East. With that, we can't afford any bad losses, which means sweeping St. John's and DePaul while also at least beating Seton Hall and Creighton at home.

So you are saying that 4 combined wins against 'Nova, Georgetown, Butler, and Providence will be enough to get us in? That's not enough quality wins.

8-5 in non-conference and 10-8 in regular season won't be enough. The only way we get in with that record is by winning the conference's automatic bid...which takes us to the minimum 21 wins I suggested earlier. Anything less won't be enough because our schedule just isn't good enough.

Now if you want to talk NIT, then maybe 19-20 wins will do it. But NCAA? Highly unlikely.

[Herman Cain]

But that's exactly it. If you are saying we go 8-5 in non-con, that's zero quality wins outside the Big East. With that, we can't afford any bad losses, which means sweeping St. John's and DePaul while also at least beating Seton Hall and Creighton at home.

So you are saying that 4 combined wins against 'Nova, Georgetown, Butler, and Providence will be enough to get us in? That's not enough quality wins.

8-5 in non-conference and 10-8 in regular season won't be enough. The only way we get in with that record is by winning the conference's automatic bid...which takes us to the minimum 21 wins I suggested earlier. Anything less won't be enough because our schedule just isn't good enough.

Now if you want to talk NIT, then maybe 19-20 wins will do it. But NCAA? Highly unlikely.

Big East is doing well again this year. I think it respected by the committee. The League  got six teams in last year. Also with all the upsets everyone is going to have issues with their non conference records.

 I think two Big East tourney wins would be better than one .  But if we went 10-8 we are probably beating a good team if we only win one game.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Before the start of the year I played around on RPI forecast.  I varied the wins and losses a bit but RPI remained pretty consistent.

23 wins   RPI: Low 40's       Probably a lock
22 wins   RPI: Low 50's       On the bubble but I think that should squeak in
21 wins   RPI: High 50's       Squarely on the bubble
20 wins   RPI: Mid 70's        Out (NIT)

Our brutal stretch of cupcakes drains the computer numbers mightily.  Need an extra win or two more than normal to make up for that.

[Galway Eagle]

Win big east tournament.

[brewcity77]

Big East is doing well again this year. I think it respected by the committee. The League  got six teams in last year. Also with all the upsets everyone is going to have issues with their non conference records.

 I think two Big East tourney wins would be better than one .  But if we went 10-8 we are probably beating a good team if we only win one game.

In the (admittedly limited) two years of this league, there have been 4 teams that finished 10-8 in league play. Their first opponents in the Big East Tournament had league records of 11-7, 10-8, 10-8, and 9-9. So if we go 10-8, we'll probably play an okay team, but it will be another team around the bubble. That won't likely be the kind of game that turns us from a bubble to lock team.

Before the start of the year I played around on RPI forecast.  I varied the wins and losses a bit but RPI remained pretty consistent.

23 wins   RPI: Low 40's       Probably a lock
22 wins   RPI: Low 50's       On the bubble but I think that should squeak in
21 wins   RPI: High 50's       Squarely on the bubble
20 wins   RPI: Mid 70's        Out (NIT)

Our brutal stretch of cupcakes drains the computer numbers mightily.  Need an extra win or two more than normal to make up for that.

This is exactly right. With the soft bubbles we've seen of late, I'd guess 22 will get us in. 20 or less and we're out, NIT at best (barring winning the Big East Tournament).

[GGGG]

St. John's got in last year as a #9 seed with a 10-8 conference record and no BET wins.  They only lost one non-conference game...to #10 Gonzaga.  They also won in Syracuse. 

In other words, I think 10-8 in conference will only be good enough if MU loses only one more non-conference game.

[brewcity77]

St. John's got in last year as a #9 seed with a 10-8 conference record and no BET wins.  They only lost one non-conference game...to #10 Gonzaga.  They also won in Syracuse. 

In other words, I think 10-8 in conference will only be good enough if MU loses only one more non-conference game.

Syracuse lost two non-conference games. They lost to Duke in January at home.

The other big difference is St. John's beat 5 top-200 teams in non-conference games. Not just quality teams like Syracuse, Minnesota, and St. Mary's, but also decent mid-majors in NJIT and Long Beach State. They only had one sub-300 opponent (313 Fairleigh Dickinson) as well, whereas we are likely to have 7-8 such opponents.

Simply, our non-conference schedule sucks. 21 wins would have us on the bubble, likely out. 22 would have us on the bubble, likely in. 23 is the minimum for us to really feel safe, and even then, we'll probably be in the 8-10 seed range.

[Bruce43]

At this point I wouldn't be all that upset about an NIT appearance...based off of the Iowa performance

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

At this point I wouldn't be all that upset about an NIT appearance...based off of the Iowa performance

It's always upsetting to miss the tourney.

[dgies9156]

There is only one magic formula for March: Win Every Day!

Right now, I am more concerned about November and December than I am March. After Iowa, March is for spring training, not basketball tournaments.

Win Every Day -- And Mean It.

[tower912]

The abysmally weak schedule is the only chance this team has to learn and grow.   

[brewcity77]

At this point I wouldn't be all that upset about an NIT appearance...based off of the Iowa performance

Fair comment, though I'd always stress not to adjust expectations too much based on one game. After Vandy in 2011 and Green Bay in 2012, plenty of people wanted to write us off, but we danced both seasons and made the second weekend both seasons.

I'm not saying that will necessarily happen with this team, but if Iowa was the worst they play all season (certainly possible, it was a stinker) and the rebound to win 2/3 between NYC and Madison, the tournament is still possible. And while we don't look great, I don't think NC State, Arizona State, or Wisconsin have exactly been world-beaters. Beating two of those teams is certainly possible, though the talent on this team would need to come together in a hurry.

I don't know what to expect right now. My real hope for this season is to see tangible improvement and signs that the coaching staff is getting through to these guys. But losses to Belmont and Iowa in November won't be what dooms us in March. If this team could go 10-3 in non-conference, win 11 or 12 between conference play and the BET, they'll have a shot. Likely? Maybe not. Impossible? Certainly not.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Teams play 3-4 stinkers per season and 3-4 games where they overachieve their talent.  One could argue that MU has used up two of their stinkers with Iowa and IUPUI. These next two games in the Borough of Churches should be telling.

[brewcity77]

Teams play 3-4 stinkers per season and 3-4 games where they overachieve their talent.  One could argue that MU has used up two of their stinkers with Iowa and IUPUI. These next two games in the Borough of Churches should be telling.

Yup. And as bad as Thursday was, if they somehow beat LSU (not impossible, LSU is darn near as young as we are and this is the time for a motivational kick in the ass) they could very well be coming back as LC champs. Iowa right now is a better team than anyone that will be in NYC with us.

[manny31]

I am not holding out much hope of success in Brooklyn. What I am hoping to see is some improvement from the coaches and every single player. I am not expecting miracles just some solid improvement. In my opinion, against Iowa there were times when it didn't look there were more than one or two players in MU uniforms that were legitimate D1 players. If there isn't an uptrend in the way MU plays we will be discussing the magic formula that gets MU into the NIT. Very small sample size, but before the season started I was very hopeful that this team would be an NCAA tournament team, now I just to be better than last year and not return to the dark days of MU hoops.