Fascinated with Experience...

[Jay Bee]

Probably one of my favorite traditions in college sports, and that's saying something because there are a lot of good ones. I would love for Marquette to try that too.

VCSU was in the same realm of this, a'inal?

[4everwarriors]

The Coach had no experience as a Head Coach. That is the real experience deficit.

Wojo made a major strategic mistake last year in allowing Deonte Burton and John Dawson to transfer. It hurt the team last year in the close Big East games and is really hurting even more this year. Both would have been making important contributions as Juniors this year.  A seasoned coach would have worked through the issues the both of them had.

Similarly, why run off Steve Taylor going into his senior year? He was showing good progress toward the end of last year. Make him a team captain as a senior and convince him he would be part of a solid team. Between those three we would have quite a bit more experience ,and would have had the luxury of putting the freshman in situations where they have a better chance to succeed and build confidence.



F

Stats about experience can be made to show anything you want.

No great loss. Fook 'em, next man up, hey?

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Wojo made a major strategic mistake last year in allowing Deonte Burton and John Dawson to transfer.

Welcome back Ners.

[jesmu84]

I don't want to renew the Burton Dawson debate. All I am saying is that in the circumstances we were in, a seasoned coach would have figured out ways to keep them around for the good of the program. None of these kids were cancers and they would have helped. Remember they had very good chemistry with their teammates.
The cancer was Todd Mayo and of course we saw how well he did in the D League.

Nothing to renew. Guys couldn't cut it, so they're gone. Better program now because of it.

[Galway Eagle]

The Coach had no experience as a Head Coach. That is the real experience deficit.

Wojo made a major strategic mistake last year in allowing Deonte Burton and John Dawson to transfer. It hurt the team last year in the close Big East games and is really hurting even more this year. Both would have been making important contributions as Juniors this year.  A seasoned coach would have worked through the issues the both of them had.

Similarly, why run off Steve Taylor going into his senior year? He was showing good progress toward the end of last year. Make him a team captain as a senior and convince him he would be part of a solid team. Between those three we would have quite a bit more experience ,and would have had the luxury of putting the freshman in situations where they have a better chance to succeed and build confidence.


Stats about experience can be made to show anything you want.

Someone played high school basketball

[Herman Cain]

Someone played high school basketball

Has nothing to do with high school basketball. Just addressing the complaint that we are inexperienced as a college team. Common sense says 3 more D1 experience players helps in game situations, more importantly  it gives you 3 better guys for practice . Buzz always made that point. 

[keefe]

Thanks - you are correct, i did just see that it was a homecoming for Marcus Paige.  Nice tradition by Roy and UNC (can't believe i just typed that and meant it)

Well, UNC has that luxury of more road games since their student athletes are not expected to attend an actual class.

[Eldon]

Nothing to renew. Guys couldn't cut it, so they're gone. Better program now because of it.

Weaksauce, bro.  What is it that they couldn't cut exactly?

If "it" means couldn't handle the situation, then one could argue that it is actually Wojo who couldn't cut it.  He was unable to improvise and work with the players that he had. 

[Jay Bee]

Deonte leaving was unfortunate. He is a phenomenal talent.

[4everwarriors]

Supposedly, so was Maymon. Been more impressed with Maymon since he left, than I was prior to him gettin' here, or for the short stint at MU. Sounds like a cat with his head screwed on right. That's what maturity can do. As for Deonte or Maymon and their MU basketball contributions--fook 'em and next man up, hey?

[naginiF]

Deonte leaving was unfortunate. He is a phenomenal talent.

agree on the talent but don't you think that the extenuating circumstances associated with his relationship to Marquette and decision to transfer shed a more positive light on him, Marquette and Wojo?  i think he did right by himself and the university and coach did right by him.  all should be proud of the situation.

Speaking from no inside knowledge but that is what it appears to be from the public POV.

[Herman Cain]

agree on the talent but don't you think that the extenuating circumstances associated with his relationship to Marquette and decision to transfer shed a more positive light on him, Marquette and Wojo?  i think he did right by himself and the university and coach did right by him.  all should be proud of the situation.

Speaking from no inside knowledge but that is what it appears to be from the public POV.

The point at issue in this thread is experience. We are short experience and   Deonte would have been a very experienced and talented player. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

The point at issue in this thread is experience. We are short experience and   Deonte would have been a very experienced and talented player.

But he didn't want to be here...what good is an experienced, talented player if he isn't going to try and has no desire of being here?

[naginiF]

The point at issue in this thread is experience. We are short experience and   Deonte would have been a very experienced and talented player.

in addition to Chico's question....do you believe it was the wrong thing for Deonte to want to distance himself from MKE given his horribly unfortunate situation and do you think it was wrong for Marquette to help him distance himself?

[Herman Cain]

But he didn't want to be here...what good is an experienced, talented player if he isn't going to try and has no desire of being here?

If what you state above was factual ,then yes, I would agree with your point. My take was that it was garden variety playing time dispute that blew up unnecessarily . The whole thing about not wanting to be in Milwaukee etc was a PR strategy for both parties to look like it was amicable.  Given the circumstances the program was in, the mid season transfer issue should have been tamped down. It showed a lack of vision and perspective.

The issue is we are  now short experienced Big East talent and Deonte , a former Big East All Rookie team member, would have been a welcome addition. The other two would have added experienced value as well.

The bigger picture  roster issue was obvious ,the University was not enthusiastic about going down the Juco path. Most other transfers would have to sit a year, and the quality graduate transfers are few and highly sought after. Thus filling out a roster was going to be a very difficult thing to do. Retaining players was at a premium for the first two years. So in my view letting 3 qualified players seek greener pastures was one of an inexperienced coach who didn't thoroughly think through the consequences of his actions.

I distinguish those three from Mayo and Gabe Levin leaving. Neither of who really wanted to be here.

Hopefully we have no injuries the rest of the year. If Duane gets hurt we are really in a lot of trouble.

In summary we have inexperienced players and inexperienced coach in equal doses.

[Lennys Tap]

But he didn't want to be here...what good is an experienced, talented player if he isn't going to try and has no desire of being here?

Deonte was a very good offensive player as a freshman. The complaint around here was that Buzz didn't use him enough. With our three best offensive players gone (Jamil, Davante and Todd) everyone assumed Burton would be the man offensively. That didn't happen. That made Burton unhappy. So did the way Wojo treated his best friend (John Dawson). That made him unhappy, too. Ultimately he decided he didn't want to play for Wojo. That's why he's at Iowa State.

[dsfire]

I ask Scoopers this: if there are any quality studies on experience in college basketball that you've come across, please post a link and/or thoughts in this thread.

I haven't read through the whole thing to see if it's worthwhile, but someone from Texas's SBNation site put together a post mapping SRS against recruiting & experience in 2011: http://www.burntorangenation.com/2011/7/25/2280434/recruiting-playing-experience-and-wins-another-look-at-ncaa

I don't remember seeing anything from the usual statheads on it.  I thought Luke Winn might've looked into it at some point but couldn't find anything.

[#UnleashSean]

Supposedly, so was Maymon. Been more impressed with Maymon since he left, than I was prior to him gettin' here, or for the short stint at MU. Sounds like a cat with his head screwed on right. That's what maturity can do. As for Deonte or Maymon and their MU basketball contributions--fook 'em and next man up, hey?

Isn't Maymon done? didn't he hurt his knee and had to retire?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Probably one of my favorite traditions in college sports, and that's saying something because there are a lot of good ones. I would love for Marquette to try that too.

Why do you think the New Mexico game came together two seasons ago? Valley City State this season. We don't do it all the time but it is something that we have tried to do before.

[bilsu]

I think Burton would of stayed, if Wojo was not starting Cohen ahead of him. Dawson and his parents met with Wojo at the end of the first semester and ask if Wojo had any plans to play him. Wojo said no and Dawson transferred. The thing about them leaving is that this year their scholarships are still open. Maybe Burton was weak on the defensive end, but that describes most of the current players on our team.

[jesmu84]

If what you state above was factual ,then yes, I would agree with your point. My take was that it was garden variety playing time dispute that blew up unnecessarily . The whole thing about not wanting to be in Milwaukee etc was a PR strategy for both parties to look like it was amicable.  Given the circumstances the program was in, the mid season transfer issue should have been tamped down. It showed a lack of vision and perspective.

The issue is we are  now short experienced Big East talent and Deonte , a former Big East All Rookie team member, would have been a welcome addition. The other two would have added experienced value as well.

The bigger picture  roster issue was obvious ,the University was not enthusiastic about going down the Juco path. Most other transfers would have to sit a year, and the quality graduate transfers are few and highly sought after. Thus filling out a roster was going to be a very difficult thing to do. Retaining players was at a premium for the first two years. So in my view letting 3 qualified players seek greener pastures was one of an inexperienced coach who didn't thoroughly think through the consequences of his actions.

I distinguish those three from Mayo and Gabe Levin leaving. Neither of who really wanted to be here.

Hopefully we have no injuries the rest of the year. If Duane gets hurt we are really in a lot of trouble.

In summary we have inexperienced players and inexperienced coach in equal doses.

Well that's nice. We all have opinions and whatnot.

The team that's here is the team that wants to be here. If players chose to leave, they chose to leave. Seems like almost everyone has moved on.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

It's not just experience. It's understanding your role as a point guard. Protect the ball, don't take risks, get the ball to people in a position to score. We don't really even have a point guard. I don't blame Wojo for this. It's the culture in college basketball. Somebody like Wojo himself wouldn't even be recruited these days. Somebody brought up Tony Miller....would he be recruited by a Big East team? I doubt it. Nobody wants to play a role anymore.

[brewcity77]

It's not just experience. It's understanding your role as a point guard. Protect the ball, don't take risks, get the ball to people in a position to score. We don't really even have a point guard. I don't blame Wojo for this. It's the culture in college basketball. Somebody like Wojo himself wouldn't even be recruited these days. Somebody brought up Tony Miller....would he be recruited by a Big East team? I doubt it. Nobody wants to play a role anymore.

Wojo was a McDonald's All-American. Not only would he still be recruited, he'd still be recruited by blue bloods today.

[Henry Sugar]

Having thought a bit more about it, I am fully on board with the experience-excuse.

I am limited on time, but wish to embark on some research re: experience and its impact on college basketball.

I am going to build a database and do some high-level analysis in the near future, but am terribly busy (with boring stuff, obviously)...

I ask Scoopers this: if there are any quality studies on experience in college basketball that you've come across, please post a link and/or thoughts in this thread.

Dan Hanner has done the most investigation that I have seen.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2415

"experience matters. If a team gives more minutes to new players and underclassmen, the defensive projection will be worse."

http://espn.go.com/ncb/insider/story/_/id/9859613/projections-all-351-division-teams-college-basketball

"I expected there to be some teams with very low variance -- specifically teams that were returning a lot of experienced players." - or, teams without experience have high variance

http://www.startribune.com/college-basketball-insider-wichita-state-perfect-don-t-be-shocked/245634521/

"Should experience equal success? Not this year, Dan Hanner of realgm.com said, pointing out that teams such as Harvard, Boise State, Boston College, North Dakota State, Elon and Penn all returned extremely high percentages of minutes from last season, but none of those teams has improved within its league, and most of them have actually gotten notably worse." it may be hard for teams that are already experienced to improve further

http://yetanotherbasketblog.blogspot.com/2010/08/dont-blame-freshman-forward.html

Experience correlates with luck. The more experienced you are, the less likely your team will be unlucky (lots of close losses)

http://yetanotherbasketblog.blogspot.com/2009/01/experience-is-over-rated-just-ask-unc.html

"experience is overrated". Another post talking about how experienced teams may already be at their limit.

====

Meta review analysis. Inexperienced teams:
1. Should have a worse defense
2. Have more volatility in their performances
3. Are more likely to suffer close losses
4. Still have room for improvement compared to experienced teams.

All of this intuitively makes sense.

[Henry Sugar]

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/230371/Predicting-the-Future-Adding-a-simulation-to-the-lineup-based-model

Hanner's overall model is worth its own post and analysis. There are a lot of key points in there, including:

- Two-star recruits have more uncertainty than three-star recruits who have more uncertainty than elite recruits.

- Freshmen have meaningfully more uncertainty than upperclassmen.

- The more possessions a player plays at the college level, the less variance there is in his projection.

- The variation in defense is correlated with returning minutes. The fewer minutes a team returns, the more uncertainty there is about the team's defense the following year.

- But while the number of returning minutes impacts the uncertainty, the effect is much smaller than you might expect.

- While the sample size is too small to put too much faith in it, I have concluded that some long-tenured coaches (like Bill Self, Jim Boeheim, and Mike Brey) are substantially more consistent on defense than the average coach.

As I showed in an analysis this summer, high school star ratings have significant predictive power.

There are a lot of important insights in that post