Dan Hanner is Back

[MUDPT]

Top 100 Scorers

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/10/15/top-scorers-kyle-wiltjer-stefan-moody-buddy-hield

Duane: 14.1 ppg
Henry: 13.6 ppg

"The prize of Marquette's 2015 recruiting class, stretch-four Henry Ellenson (No. 94), projects to be the highest-scoring freshman in the Big East. He and sophomore guard Duane Wilson (No. 72) will lead a Golden Eagles team that we expect to get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013."

[Galway Eagle]

If those are accurate and Luke can stay at 11 or move up a big we'll be in good shape

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Can I say I don't get all the Grayson Allen love? He's going to be a great player but I have seen nothing in his game that makes me think he will score 16+ points a game.

[MerrittsMustache]

Can I say I don't get all the Grayson Allen love? He's going to be a great player but I have seen nothing in his game that makes me think he will score 16+ points a game.

Somebody's gotta score. Duke lost their top 5 scorers from last season (counting Sulaimon).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Somebody's gotta score. Duke lost their top 5 scorers from last season (counting Sulaimon).

I get that, but they've got four 5 star freshman and really talented transfer coming in. I feel like they've got options

[bilsu]

If those are accurate and Luke can stay at 11 or move up a big we'll be in good shape

As far as I can tell the predictive system used here does not take into account that Luke had a bad shoulder last year. I still believe Henry, Duane and Luke average 45 points a game.

[MUfan12]

Can I say I don't get all the Grayson Allen love? He's going to be a great player but I have seen nothing in his game that makes me think he will score 16+ points a game.

After what he and Tyus did last April, they will always be considered friends of the Marquette family, and should never be questioned.

[bilsu]

As far as I can tell the predictive system used here does not take into account that Luke had a bad shoulder last year. I still believe Henry, Duane and Luke average 45 points a game.

Last year Carlino, Duane & Fischer averaged 37.9 points and team averaged 65.1 points. 13-19 record
2011-12 season DJO, Crowder & Davante averaged 45.3 points and team averaged 75.4 pts. 27-8 record

[Loose Cannon]

Last year Carlino, Duane & Fischer averaged 37.9 points and team averaged 65.1 points. 13-19 record
2011-12 season DJO, Crowder & Davante averaged 45.3 points and team averaged 75.4 pts. 27-8 record

It seems easy to make a case for this team reaching 75 plus a game.
  1) Luke's healthy shoulder
  2) Games missed by Luke & Carlino last year.
  3) Much more scoring from the PG
  4) Better scorers around our Big Three
  5) A better and faster disruptive defense leading to turnover points.

[wadesworld]

After what he and Tyus did last April, they will always be considered friends of the Marquette family, and should never be questioned.

+1.

[Galway Eagle]

It seems easy to make a case for this team reaching 75 plus a game.
  1) Luke's healthy shoulder
  2) Games missed by Luke & Carlino last year.
  3) Much more scoring from the PG
  4) Better scorers around our Big Three
  5) A better and faster disruptive defense leading to turnover points.

Plus lower shot clock

[Loose Cannon]

Plus lower shot clock

Yes, you're right.

[bilsu]

Plus lower shot clock

Also less tired players, because of better depth.

[barfolomew]

  5) A better and faster disruptive defense leading to turnover points.

The previews have looked good so far, but I would say the defensive end will be a big fat question mark until we have played a few solid teams.

[Loose Cannon]

The previews have looked good so far, but I would say the defensive end will be a big fat question mark until we have played a few solid teams.

Are you thinking they may be the same or less than last year's team against solid teams?

[fjm]

I think bringing up the defense is appropriate. Our O will be there as the talent we have will outshine our youth.
Our youth will show most on defense on quick switches and kick outs.

[barfolomew]

Are you thinking they may be the same or less than last year's team against solid teams?

I agree with fjm; the youth factor means the defensive end may take some time. The talent increase from last year is there, but how all the new faces mesh into Wojo's defensive scheme is an unknown commodity. We may see more zone at the outset like we did last year.

[Loose Cannon]

I agree with fjm; the youth factor means the defensive end may take some time. The talent increase from last year is there, but how all the new faces mesh into Wojo's defensive scheme is an unknown commodity. We may see more zone at the outset like we did last year.

Certainly there is truth in your view.

I however have much faith in the returning players having a better grasp of what the Coaches want on Defense.  I think the new players (Traci, Hannif & Sacar) will mesh from the very first game and become better during  the season.  I believe Wojo recruiting of them and knowing their skill level will be easier to mesh this group as opposed to last year.

I guess we will see in the opening games.  Either way its going to be an excising year.

[Jay Bee]

It seems easy to make a case for this team reaching 75 plus a game.
 

Do the math on possessions and ppp and reassess. If you still believe this, please provide your 'reasonable' assumptions (which would be comprised of two things - possessions per game and ppp)

[Loose Cannon]

Do the math on possessions and ppp and reassess. If you still believe this, please provide your 'reasonable' assumptions (which would be comprised of two things - possessions per game and ppp)

My belief is based on the 5 elements listed in my above #8 post  which makes sense to me.

If your possessions/PPP  math leads to a different number other than 75 plus then we disagree on the tools we used.  Would you care to share your number so we can compare at the end of the season.

[bilsu]

Do the math on possessions and ppp and reassess. If you still believe this, please provide your 'reasonable' assumptions (which would be comprised of two things - possessions per game and ppp)

There is no question that this team is more offensively talented. It also has more depth, which will allow Wojo to use the more up temple game he says he wants to play.

[DaCoach]

There is no question that this team is more offensively talented. It also has more depth, which will allow Wojo to use the more up temple game he says he wants to play.

Is that a Jewish message?

[Jay Bee]

My belief is based on the 5 elements listed in my above #8 post  which makes sense to me.

If your possessions/PPP  math leads to a different number other than 75 plus then we disagree on the tools we used.  Would you care to share your number so we can compare at the end of the season.

I don't have a number. My challenge is that I can't get comfortable with any possessions/ppp that result in 75+. They were sub-65 possessions per game and sub 1.00 ppp a year ago.

Let's say possessions rise to 68.. we're going to be 1.10+ ppp? Tough to call that 'easy to make a case'...

Senior year for Jae, DJO.. 70.8 possessions, 106.2 ppp.. to just barely get to 75.
Jimmy's sr year where he and Jae were unreal.. 68.4 & 109.7... to just barely get to 75

Of course, in those years average possessions per game in college basketball were ~3% more than 2014-15.. will the shot clock make them equal?

Not sure. My point is I don't think it's easy to make a case that this team will score 75 points per game and I wanted to know how you get there mathematically.. 68 and 108.. I can maybe get there.. but that's still short of 75.

[Loose Cannon]

I don't have a number. My challenge is that I can't get comfortable with any possessions/ppp that result in 75+. They were sub-65 possessions per game and sub 1.00 ppp a year ago.

Let's say possessions rise to 68.. we're going to be 1.10+ ppp? Tough to call that 'easy to make a case'...

Senior year for Jae, DJO.. 70.8 possessions, 106.2 ppp.. to just barely get to 75.
Jimmy's sr year where he and Jae were unreal.. 68.4 & 109.7... to just barely get to 75

Of course, in those years average possessions per game in college basketball were ~3% more than 2014-15.. will the shot clock make them equal?

Not sure. My point is I don't think it's easy to make a case that this team will score 75 points per game and I wanted to know how you get there mathematically.. 68 and 108.. I can maybe get there.. but that's still short of 75.

Based on your calculations I can see your concern.

For me I'm coming from another direction, I see a PG that should add 6-8 more points a game.  our other players adding another 8 and also an increase  in FT attempts and FT's made..

I consider you one of the most knowledgeable posters on this site, so I'm trying to find where there might be a fallacy in my approach.

[bilsu]

Another thing to take into account is our weak non-conference schedule. We probably will not average 75 points a game in the Big East, but we will be significanly above that before we enter the conference. I could easily see us scoring 100 or more in 6 of our non-conference games.