Another Big East Expansion Discussion

[WarriorInNYC]

Exactly.  Down the line it probably will be necessary to expand, and Dayton and SLU will still be available.

I think it's time to revisit what might be the wrongest post in the history of Scoop.  (And that's saying something.)

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=34539.msg422884#msg422884

+1

[GoldenWarrior11]

While I think Dayton and SLU are the most logical candidates for expansion (today), I go back to how they would fit in - basketball wise.  Dayton, under Archie Miller, would probably be in the top half (top-6) of the league on a consistent basis.  Without Archie Miller, you're probably looking at 6-10 range.  Saint Louis, on the other hand, would, under Jim Crews, would probably challenge DePaul and Seton Hall for 10-12.

So, would those 2 schools add value to the league?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

While I think Dayton and SLU are the most logical candidates for expansion (today), I go back to how they would fit in - basketball wise.  Dayton, under Archie Miller, would probably be in the top half (top-6) of the league on a consistent basis.  Without Archie Miller, you're probably looking at 6-10 range.  Saint Louis, on the other hand, would, under Jim Crews, would probably challenge DePaul and Seton Hall for 10-12.

So, would those 2 schools add value to the league?

No. And that's exactly the problem. If they aren't schools that drive eyeballs to television, than they are not worth the addition. Gonzaga, BYU, UConn, Notre Dame, Memphis, Temple, UMass (maybe),Wichita State (maybe) and VCU (maybe) are the only schools that do that. Is it possible to get any of them? Other than VCU and Wichita State, I don't know, probably not in most cases.

I think it is smart to wait to expand to see if any of the Gonzaga, BYU, UConn, Notre Dame, Memphis, Temple group becomes available over the next few years. If they don't, settle for VCU and Wichita State assuming they haven't fallen off by then. If they have fallen off, then maybe you start to talk about Dayton and SLU. But those are desperation adds in my opinion. Expanding just for the sake of expansion.

[Dawson Rental]

Just thought I should mention that expanding the conference makes it more difficult to get Marquette games on Fox Sports 1, so that a very good reason to slow the expansion process down to such a time as there are sure fire candidates to be had.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I don't know, TAMU.  I just don't see the Big East Presidents signing off on VCU and/or Wichita State (especially).  Disregarding both as public schools, both schools don't move the bar academically, and don't bring strong markets either.  VCU would always be behind both Virginia and Virginia Tech, and WSU would always be behind Kansas and Kansas State. 

It's all moot anyways, because the league probably won't be expanding in the next few seasons.

[Benny B]

Well, since Eldon brought up the map....


What about Detroit Mercy?  Jesuit.  Geographical fit.  New TV market.  Decent basketball tradition.  And the first time Dick Vitale says something good about the Big East, ESPN will fire him and we won't have to listen to him gush on about Duke when we beat them in the National Championship next year.  That's win-win for everyone.

[brewcity77]

I think that's the problem. If there are no better candidates than Dayton or SLU, then we should not be expanding the conference.

Which is fine, and which I agree with, but makes the ABD meme a bit silly. I could probably easily list 100 programs across the country that anyone here would look at and say "gun to my head, have to add one, I'll take Dayton over them."

I don't want to add Dayton right now either, but if UConn inexplicably said "we're dropping to FCS for football and want to join the Big East for all other sports" and we had to take them and one other school, I'd happily say "Dayton, your time is now".

Wouldn't want to add them for the sake of adding, but they are a fine addition if we need a compliment.

[GGGG]

I thought I would try to summarize some of the thought here regarding the *types* of schools that people want to see as expansion candidates, and what the conference leaders might be thinking.


FBS Football  Members (BYU)

While this is likely not possible unless the school is an independent in football, I think this is a non-starter.  And I think the BE membership agrees.  As long as you are playing FBS football, that is going to be your primary focus and deservedly so.  Doesn't really mesh with the goals and objectives of the BE.


Non-football, or FCS public universities (VCU, Wichita State)

This is a category that gets thrown out there and oftentimes dismissed.  And while I understand why schools like this are dismissed, I wonder if this is a case where we aren't seeing the forest through the trees.  VCU and Wichita are brought up because of their basketball success, which has been sustained in both cases through multiple coaches.  Neither plays football, nor do they have the desire to at the moment.  Both are steps down in terms of academics, but does that really matter?  I think the BE leadership views these schools as non-starters, maybe because they don't trust that they will stay away from football?  I think this view may end up being short sighted.


Non-football, or FCS private schools (too numerous to mention)

This is the category that is thrown around most often simply because the conference is made up of ten such schools already.  However one thing I have noticed is that we seem to think being Catholic is a plus.  I don't think that is the case at all.  That being said, there are some good candidates, but no really obvious ones at this point.  Either they don't bring enough of an audience to make it worthwhile, or they are such a geographical outlier that it isn't worth the effort.


I'm beginning to think that the BE needs to look more closely at the second category.  The Atlantic 10 actually started as a mix of public and privates.  (MVC as well.)  And while it has become decidedly more private over time, they still have looked at public universities when they felt they added value (VCU, Charlotte).  And if those schools eventually add football, like Charlotte did, they just went out and found a new member.  Is that the end of the world?  Not mine.  I don't view conference membership as set in stone by any means.

[GooooMarquette]

Non-football, or FCS public universities (VCU, Wichita State)

This is a category that gets thrown out there and oftentimes dismissed.  And while I understand why schools like this are dismissed, I wonder if this is a case where we aren't seeing the forest through the trees.  VCU and Wichita are brought up because of their basketball success, which has been sustained in both cases through multiple coaches.  Neither plays football, nor do they have the desire to at the moment.  Both are steps down in terms of academics, but does that really matter?  I think the BE leadership views these schools as non-starters, maybe because they don't trust that they will stay away from football?  I think this view may end up being short sighted.

I see your point...but if they truly have no intention to get into football, they'd still be there for the taking several years from now.  My conclusion on them is kinda like my conclusion on SLU, Dayton and the like:  If we get to the point where expansion is viewed as the way to go, we'll be able to choose the schools that work best at the time.

[GGGG]

I see your point...but if they truly have no intention to get into football, they'd still be there for the taking several years from now.  My conclusion on them is kinda like my conclusion on SLU, Dayton and the like:  If we get to the point where expansion is viewed as the way to go, we'll be able to choose the schools that work best at the time.

I agree.  I guess the question is when is it time.  I don't know enough to have an answer to that one.

[GoldenWarrior11]

The interesting hypothetical, and it's a huge hypothetical, is what if some of the great basketball programs that sponsor FBS football (Boston College, UConn, Duke, Wake Forest, etc.) find out that they can no longer keep up with all of the public schools floating around significant amounts of cash just to be competitive in FBS football?  What if there comes a point where a number of schools can no longer compete with the Alabamas, Floridas, Auburns, Ohio States, Texases, etc.?

Under this scenario, there could be a division within the FBS - where one is essentially the NFL minor league and the other that still wants to be competitive under the collegiate banner.  The B1G and SEC could form two super conferences (where the B1G takes all the premier PAC-12 universities to form a nationwide wide academic/athletic powerhouse, and the SEC takes the strong programs from the Big 12 and ACC).  Under this scenario, Boston College, UConn, Duke, Wake Forest (and one could argue Notre Dame) wouldn't want to be a part of that.  Where would they park their non-football sports?  Each school would be a huge addition to the Big East.

[tower912]

And the consensus is..... much like the 2016 presidential election, there is no good candidate.    Any school named will have more problems than advantages.    It will ultimately come down to what Fox wants to do, but if I had my way expansion would be tabled for 5 years.   Hopefully, by then an answer will reveal itself. 

[GGGG]

The interesting hypothetical, and it's a huge hypothetical, is what if some of the great basketball programs that sponsor FBS football (Boston College, UConn, Duke, Wake Forest, etc.) find out that they can no longer keep up with all of the public schools floating around significant amounts of cash just to be competitive in FBS football?  What if there comes a point where a number of schools can no longer compete with the Alabamas, Floridas, Auburns, Ohio States, Texases, etc.?

The only way this happens is if football revenue decreases considerably (television contracts), or costs rise significantly (liability).  I can't imagine anything in the near term that is going to cause Duke, Wake, BC to drop football.  And near term is like within the next 25 years.

And really waiting around for that to happen may not make sense.  You should strike when it makes sense to strike...not wait for a potential future that may never occur.

[Eldon]

Which is fine, and which I agree with, but makes the ABD meme a bit silly. I could probably easily list 100 programs across the country that anyone here would look at and say "gun to my head, have to add one, I'll take Dayton over them."

I don't want to add Dayton right now either, but if UConn inexplicably said "we're dropping to FCS for football and want to join the Big East for all other sports" and we had to take them and one other school, I'd happily say "Dayton, your time is now".

Wouldn't want to add them for the sake of adding, but they are a fine addition if we need a compliment.

Alright, maybe you're right.  If Val came up to me and said: You can have UCONN....but you have to take Dayton, with them.  I'd cry tears of joy in one eye, tears of sadness in the other and then I would nod begrudgingly.

[KipsBayEagle]

I am going to take a lot of heat for this, but I am going to say that I would like to add Fordham.

None of the current schools that fit our profile (small, catholic, urban) have a basketball team worth adding with the exceptions of Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, which are geographically impossible adds.  Therefore, I would add a school with excellent academics, is catholic, and is in headquarters of the Big East, New York City. 

I think this is beneficial move for the Marquette, Fordham and the Big East.  It is beneficial to Marquette and the Big East because it brings in an institution with a sterling academic record, which really does add to the prestige of the league.

Fordham benefits in that they get dropped into an excellent basketball league which will immediately boost their revenue.  They also get a legit marketing tool to prospective students (you have a big east basketball team that plays Villanova, Georgetown and Marquette every year).

I know many will think this is foolish but ask yourself this.  Are we really improved by adding any other team out there that is available?  Do you really want to add Dayton or SLU or whatever crap team they are going to put in there?  No!  Do they make our league better or more competitive?  No!  But ask yourself this.  Does the value of your degree maybe go up if you are in a conference that is known for academic excellence?  I think yes.

[MU82]

I'm firmly in the "no expansion for the foreseeable future" camp.

But the dreamer in me is warming up to the idea of UConn, even if they keep football and park it in another league (or leave it in the AAC). Obviously, there has to be a CRAZY-high exit fee.

Worst-case scenario: They leave in x number of years and each of our schools makes $5 million or more. Till then, we get one of the best college hoops programs of the last quarter-century to exploit as one of us.

[source?]

So I'm going to throw my lot in with VCU. Before I get into that I'll briefly run down my other preferences, because I'm sure you all care very much. I like SLU, I hope for UConn, I find Dayton acceptable. I dislike Temple, looking at their financials and basketball budget they would be a poor add. Couple that with the fact that we already have the premier school in Philly and they are a non-starter for me.

On to VCU:

1. They may be behind VT and VA in the state, but they have a larger enrollment than either and own a decent market in Richmond. That's pretty solid.

2. Since the original formation of the conference they have nearly tripled their endowment. They would be behind only Georgetown in the conference, even with the addition of SLU. This shows a commitment to improving academics that I think the presidents can get behind.

3. Since the original formation of the conference they have built a practice facility that is up to par with most BE members. That's a significant investment in keeping hoops successful.

4. Since the original formation of the conference they have begun a plan to expand their arena to 10,000 seats. That's significant because the 7,400 seating capacity they had would be below the BE average attendance and below the average attendance of every major conference except one. Our current smallest arena is 9,100 (Butler)

5. They have compiled successful seasons under 3 consecutive coaches.

Cons:

1. Public, which I think is total BS.

2. New coach. We'll see how that turns out, but the school and facilities are attractive so I think the success of a single coach is sort of a weak criteria.


There have also been some changes in the leadership of the conference including a new president at Marquette (and I believe at least one other school but it escapes me which) and several new AD's. Of the 4 teams I like for expansion, all bring great facilities and 3 bring solid winning traditions. I think 3 would also keep the average kenpom of the conference above the  .700 level that is considered "major." I think eventually (maybe 3-5 years) starting with VCU and Dayton, then waiting for football fallout to see what shakes out is a solid plan. Eh, but I'm just dude on the internet.

[source?]

I'll also add that in a series of down seasons Dayton still had over 12,000 attendance average and even in a down year VCU would have a massive alumni base to draw from. Flyers travel well and VCU is an east coast school.

[GoldenWarrior11]

VCU has the credentials, no doubt, but I think they would insist on another public to come join with them. I don't know of any conference that has such an overwhelming majority of similar institutional schools - only to add just one outlying school.

The B1G, SEC, PAC 12 and ACC already had at least one private before widespread expansion occurred, mostly involving huge state public schools.

If UCONN were to join, however unlikely, I think their pair would be VCU. The Dayton/SLU pairing makes too much sense for today's standard - but it is just not good enough for the league to add value.

[brewcity77]

Three sets of thoughts...

1) On football schools...

I get the idea of waiting for the BC, Duke, or Wake, but they are getting what, $18M per year? Even if football isn't breaking even for them, I'm sure the combination of marketing, donations, and conference affiliation makes up for any money they lose on the program itself.

UConn, Memphis, or Temple, I suppose maybe they'd drop a level, but thus far, we haven't seen a rush of FBS schools dropping down. More teams are moving up than moving down. My guess is the money from donors and television offsets any losses they incur.

2) On Fordham...

I get the academic and market ideas, but we already have St John's and Fordham's basketball program is awful. This league is a basketball first league, and if being in the Big East for a decade hasn't woken DePaul up as a sleeping giant, what hope would Fordham have?

Adding teams has to make sense for Fox because if we add, we have to add value. That means either quality programs, new markets, or massive fanbases. Academics should be considered, but only if they meet the other qualifications (or at least some of them) first.

3) On VCU...

I view them like Dayton. If we want them, we could take them at any time. Not a great program, but good enough to add if there's another team you "have to take."

Though we'll never add VCU, no matter how much sense they make. Georgetown would never allow it. They are very anti-VCU.

The league is good right now. The round robin schedule works great. UConn, Notre Dame, Temple is the list for me. I don't think we'll have any of those on the table any time soon, but barring that type of program, there's no reason to add.

[Dawson Rental]

I am going to take a lot of heat for this, but I am going to say that I would like to add Fordham.

None of the current schools that fit our profile (small, catholic, urban) have a basketball team worth adding with the exceptions of Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, which are geographically impossible adds.  Therefore, I would add a school with excellent academics, is catholic, and is in headquarters of the Big East, New York City. 

I think this is beneficial move for the Marquette, Fordham and the Big East.  It is beneficial to Marquette and the Big East because it brings in an institution with a sterling academic record, which really does add to the prestige of the league.

Fordham benefits in that they get dropped into an excellent basketball league which will immediately boost their revenue.  They also get a legit marketing tool to prospective students (you have a big east basketball team that plays Villanova, Georgetown and Marquette every year).

I know many will think this is foolish but ask yourself this.  Are we really improved by adding any other team out there that is available?  Do you really want to add Dayton or SLU or whatever crap team they are going to put in there?  No!  Do they make our league better or more competitive?  No!  But ask yourself this.  Does the value of your degree maybe go up if you are in a conference that is known for academic excellence?  I think yes.

Not enough for Vanderbilt and Florida to consider leaving the SEC.

[4everwarriors]

The whole concussion thing will be the demise of basketball, ai na?

[MU82]

One thing that I kinda wish folks would stop doing is talking about this school with so-and-so as coach and that school with such-and-such as coach and this school is kinda winning lately and that school is sorta treading water lately.

We want a great league to be around for a long time. Who is coaching somewhere, to me, is irrelevant. If history is any guide, we don't have a single program where the next Coach K or the next Lute Olsen is going to stay around for decades. So to base possible expansion on the current coach at a place like Dayton or VCU makes no sense.

The same thing with how the basketball team is doing the last year or three. Hell, if that were the main thing, Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall and several others would have to be drummed out.

You base it on a school's commitment to basketball, a commitment usually shown by dollars. You base it on tradition. You base it on market. At least that's MHO.

If VCU can't survive Shaka leaving or Dayton can't keep winning after Archie is gone, I don't want either of them anyway. And we all knew Shaka would leave and we all know that Archie will, too.

[brewcity77]

MU82, I agree, which is why both VCU and Dayton are good targets. Both have sustained winning programs through multiple coaches for the past 15-20 years. It's the same reason Butler was still attractive after Brad Stevens left.

[MU82]

MU82, I agree, which is why both VCU and Dayton are good targets. Both have sustained winning programs through multiple coaches for the past 15-20 years. It's the same reason Butler was still attractive after Brad Stevens left.

Maybe, brew. I'm still in agreement with others that the Daytons and VCUs will be there whenever the Big East reaches out, be it next year, 5 years from now or whenever.

If we can't get the likes of UConn, I'm on the "no" side of expansion.