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Author Topic: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)  (Read 25693 times)

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #250 on: December 29, 2018, 11:40:38 PM »

Why didn’t you factor in the dividend Disney paid me during that time?

Why don't you factor in that randomly tossing a dart at the WSJ quotes would have probably produced a better investment than DIS over the 3 1/2 years.

Actually, DIS is only down about $3 since then (which isn't "significantly" for a $100+ stock).

With dividends reinvested, a $10K investment on 8/5/15 would be worth about $10,230 today -- so not a loss at all, but a 2.3% gain.

Now, a 2.3% gain over nearly 3 1/2 years is nothing to really celebrate, especially since the S&P 500 (SPY) is up about 26.6% over the same span, and some blue-chip stocks are up 100% or more since then (such as Microsoft, up 128%).

But it's not a loss, let alone a "significant" one. And DIS has handily beaten SPY over the last year.

The single biggest thing that screams "I don't get it" is measuring investments against breakeven.  Making or losing money basis your cost is irrelevant.  What is important is making or losing against a benchmark, or an alternative to that investment.

As you point out, but dismiss as a secondary point, DIS has been terrible against the index. The S&P is up 26,9% while DIS was up 2.3% over the same period.  Or, if  you like, leaving your money in the bank in 3-month T-Bills was better too, up 3.3% over the same period.

Hence my first comment, DIS has been an enormous loss of opportunity.


jesmu84

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #251 on: December 29, 2018, 11:42:44 PM »
Why don't you factor in that randomly tossing a dart at the WSJ quotes would have probably produced a better investment than DIS over the 3 1/2 years.

The single biggest thing that screams "I don't get it" is measuring investments against breakeven.  Making or losing money basis your cost is irrelevant.  What is important is making or losing against a benchmark, or an alternative to that investment.

As you point out, but dismiss as a secondary point, DIS has been terrible against the index. The S&P is up 26,9% while DIS was up 2.3% over the same period.  Or, if  you like, leaving your money in the bank in 3-month T-Bills was better too, up 3.3% over the same period.

Hence my first comment, DIS has been an enormous loss of opportunity.

Why are you so worried about your stance being wrong?

MU82

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #252 on: December 29, 2018, 11:56:16 PM »
Why don't you factor in that randomly tossing a dart at the WSJ quotes would have probably produced a better investment than DIS over the 3 1/2 years.

The single biggest thing that screams "I don't get it" is measuring investments against breakeven.  Making or losing money basis your cost is irrelevant.  What is important is making or losing against a benchmark, or an alternative to that investment.

As you point out, but dismiss as a secondary point, DIS has been terrible against the index. The S&P is up 26,9% while DIS was up 2.3% over the same period.  Or, if  you like, leaving your money in the bank in 3-month T-Bills was better too, up 3.3% over the same period.

Hence my first comment, DIS has been an enormous loss of opportunity.

Actually, the single biggest thing that screams, "I don't get it," is when one has to resort to lies to make his or her point.

You claimed Disney's stock price is "significantly lower" than it was in August 2015. Using facts -- remember those? -- I showed how your statement was false. Now you're shifting the goalposts in a desperate attempt to be "right." Even though you weren't.

I also just said that DIS has far outperformed SPY over the last year, which you ignored because it doesn't fit your narrative.

DIS is one of my smallest holdings. I only recently bought it in two small tranches, at 100 and 101. I plan to gradually build the position with buys when I consider it attractively valued. It doesn't matter one iota to me if you don't invest in it. Go load up on bitcoin, for all I care.

Finally, a company's stock price and its business are two vastly different things. Somebody who "gets it" would know that.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #253 on: December 30, 2018, 12:42:03 AM »
Actually, the single biggest thing that screams, "I don't get it," is when one has to resort to lies to make his or her point.

You claimed Disney's stock price is "significantly lower" than it was in August 2015. Using facts -- remember those? -- I showed how your statement was false. Now you're shifting the goalposts in a desperate attempt to be "right." Even though you weren't.

I also just said that DIS has far outperformed SPY over the last year, which you ignored because it doesn't fit your narrative.

DIS is one of my smallest holdings. I only recently bought it in two small tranches, at 100 and 101. I plan to gradually build the position with buys when I consider it attractively valued. It doesn't matter one iota to me if you don't invest in it. Go load up on bitcoin, for all I care.

Finally, a company's stock price and its business are two vastly different things. Somebody who "gets it" would know that.

It is significantly lower than the S&P.  Cost does not matter.

Jockey

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #254 on: December 30, 2018, 01:08:16 AM »
Hmmmm....

Has Smuggles returned?

Cheeks

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #255 on: December 30, 2018, 01:13:20 AM »
Why don't you factor in that randomly tossing a dart at the WSJ quotes would have probably produced a better investment than DIS over the 3 1/2 years.

Why do you care Tugg?

Second, most of my DIS stock is from $27 to $34 when I worked for them.  I like owning great American companies.

Third, the are about to own 67 % of Hulu, will make a crap ton of money due to the forced divesture of their RSN’s to whomever  buys.  They have major amusement park expansion opening next year.  I’m fine with the investment.  I don’t trade out daily or yearly for that matter.  I’m buying and holding, same reason why Buffett bought so much Apple....now feel free to beat the market all day if you wish and God’s speed doing it. Don’t particularly care, that’s your call.

"The tournament is a crapshoot. It shouldn't be everything. It's such a shallow thing to pin everything on."
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GGGG

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #256 on: December 30, 2018, 08:02:33 AM »
Hmmmm....

Has Smuggles returned?


You just figured that out?  He’s also claiming to be right about Apple because of their performance over the last few months.

MU82

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #257 on: December 30, 2018, 05:14:46 PM »
Hmmmm....

Has Smuggles returned?

So much fun to have Smuggles and chicos back, two guys who love arguing for the sake of arguing, two guys who are never wrong.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

Cheeks

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #258 on: December 30, 2018, 06:00:22 PM »
So much fun to have Smuggles and chicos back, two guys who love arguing for the sake of arguing, two guys who are never wrong.

The irony coming from you. I’m wrong a lot, just as you are.  I can admit that for both of us. Progress
"The tournament is a crapshoot. It shouldn't be everything. It's such a shallow thing to pin everything on."
Gonzaga Head Coach Mark Few

MU82

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #259 on: December 30, 2018, 06:02:02 PM »
The irony coming from you. I’m wrong a lot, just as you are.  I can admit that for both of us. Progress

I do not argue just to argue. And I admit when I am wrong, and apologize if necessary. If you follow that blueprint, it would be appreciated. Happy New Year.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

Cheeks

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #260 on: December 30, 2018, 06:23:47 PM »
I do not argue just to argue. And I admit when I am wrong, and apologize if necessary. If you follow that blueprint, it would be appreciated. Happy New Year.

Countless examples I can bring up in last few months while observing before coming back, but whatever.  Happy New Year
"The tournament is a crapshoot. It shouldn't be everything. It's such a shallow thing to pin everything on."
Gonzaga Head Coach Mark Few

Cheeks

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #261 on: April 12, 2019, 08:04:24 PM »
Disney stock anyone?

 ;)
"The tournament is a crapshoot. It shouldn't be everything. It's such a shallow thing to pin everything on."
Gonzaga Head Coach Mark Few

MU82

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #262 on: April 12, 2019, 09:49:11 PM »
Disney stock anyone?

 ;)

Yep.

And I'm far too lazy to look, but if memory serves this is another one that Smuggles said not to touch when it was a bargain in the high-80s or low-90s.

I have a decent amount of DIS and AAPL, but I sure wish I had really loaded up exactly when Smuggles said to do the exact opposite.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #263 on: April 12, 2019, 10:46:05 PM »
Thread started when Disney cracked off $122 almost four years ago.  Only today did it finally break above $122.  Over the same period the market was up 50%.

What is interesting is the book ends of this story.

August 2015 Disney cracks as the announce “some” subscriber loss.  Turned out to be a massive understatement as they lost millions of subscribers during this period.

What happens today to finally get it to break out?  They finally gave up on cable and announced a streaming service.  Welcome to the modern era Disney.

82 and Cheeks, got any other stocks we can have a four year 11 page thread on to make $1?

Keep that Apple thread handy 82. Some day when the DJIA is thousands of points higher again it will go one penny above you crowing you were buying more at $232. Then you can dust off that thread too.

Oh, How’s underamour doing? Funny that thread never gets mentioned, still down 60% from its peak.  Remind me again how brilliant Seth Curry and Jordan Spieth were to take endorsement pay in UAA stock?  They are still working for free.


————

Let’s not lose the larger story here ... why do any of you waste your time buying stocks?  Just buy a broad based ETF.  Much easier and more profitable.  Where I’ve had my money forever.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 11:06:45 PM by Heisenberg v2.0 »

Cheeks

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #264 on: April 13, 2019, 12:33:23 AM »
You forgot to mention the dividend on my Disney stock Heisy.
"The tournament is a crapshoot. It shouldn't be everything. It's such a shallow thing to pin everything on."
Gonzaga Head Coach Mark Few

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #265 on: April 13, 2019, 07:40:24 AM »
You forgot to mention the dividend on my Disney stock Heisy.

And you forgot to mention my S&P 500 dividend.

MU82

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #266 on: April 13, 2019, 07:52:04 AM »
Thread started when Disney cracked off $122 almost four years ago.  Only today did it finally break above $122.  Over the same period the market was up 50%.

What is interesting is the book ends of this story.

August 2015 Disney cracks as the announce “some” subscriber loss.  Turned out to be a massive understatement as they lost millions of subscribers during this period.

What happens today to finally get it to break out?  They finally gave up on cable and announced a streaming service.  Welcome to the modern era Disney.

82 and Cheeks, got any other stocks we can have a four year 11 page thread on to make $1?

Keep that Apple thread handy 82. Some day when the DJIA is thousands of points higher again it will go one penny above you crowing you were buying more at $232. Then you can dust off that thread too.

Oh, How’s underamour doing? Funny that thread never gets mentioned, still down 60% from its peak.  Remind me again how brilliant Seth Curry and Jordan Spieth were to take endorsement pay in UAA stock?  They are still working for free.


————

Let’s not lose the larger story here ... why do any of you waste your time buying stocks?  Just buy a broad based ETF.  Much easier and more profitable.  Where I’ve had my money forever.

I'll start by doing something you pretty much never do, Smuggles -- apologizing. I admit that before I wrote my post yesterday, I did not go back to the top of the thread, and I certainly didn't remember what was written 4 years ago. So yes, you were right, DIS was not a good buy on Aug. 4, 2015 (the day before your post about it being ready to crash) at $121. Even the relatively small dividend chicos and others got since then did not make it a good buy; as you correctly stated, it took nearly 4 years just to get back to break even.

However ...

Just two weeks later, on Aug. 25, 2015, I made my first comment on the thread:

DIS at under $92, which is about 18x 2015 earnings estimates, would be an extremely attractive entry point IMHO. That's where my limit order is -- 91 and change.

DIS is a classic "want to" stock for me. I don't "need" to own it to realize my financial goals. But it is a fantastic company with a future of limitless potential and I would be happy to own it for decades to come if I can get it at what I consider a bargain price.


To which you promptly (and smugly) responded:

An 18 PE was the old world that ended on August 4.  Today's new (cord--cutting) world might be an under 15 forward PE ... on a lower earnings estimate. 

Change your buy order to $75 to $80.


Had anybody done that, he/she would have never seen the order filled. The lowest DIS got after that was when it briefly went under $87 in Feb 2016. I wish I had bought then, but I actually waited until last year (May 29, 2018 to be precise) and bought it at 100 ($99.69 to be precise) -- a purchase I reported in a public, real-time, real-money portfolio I run.

So in about 11 months, that DIS purchase, including reinvested dividends is up 32.5%. SPY, in that exact same span, is up 10%.

I since made two other DIS buys, both in the $105-108 range. Those also have crushed SPY's performance.

You spent most of the thread cut-and-pasting various articles as your way of "proving" that DIS was doomed. Okey dokey then.

At one point, I made a comparison between DIS and MCD, talking about both being out of favor companies, and you proceeded to say how much trouble MCD was in, also.

That was Nov. 28, 2015. I responded by saying:

OK. I'll take my chances with MCD as part of a diversified portfolio filled mostly with long-time dividend growers. They will help me meet my goals.

Since then, MCD (which got a good CEO and has made several outstanding changes) is up 84%. In the same span, SPY is up 48%.

You are going to die on your sword with AAPL, too, apparently. I can't speak for anybody else, but I did not buy more at $232. My last buy was in the $180s. And my AAPL position is up bigly -- way, way, way better than SPY in the time I've owned it.

But thanks for reminding everybody that you smugly said AAPL was dead money in the low-$90s and only a fool would invest in it there.

UA? I don't own it, I've never owned it, I don't follow it, and I don't know anything about it, so I'll take your word on it. I do own NKE, bought dirt-cheap, and I held it through the "Kaepernick Krisis" and I'm glad I did.

For a guy who gives others advice to buy a broad-based ETF -- advice I'd second for the average investor, BTW -- you sure spend a lot of time worrying about the daily ups and downs of certain stocks. No intelligent investor I know makes long-range investing decisions based on the price gyrations of a half-dozen stocks, Smuggles, but maybe you do.

BTW, my public portfolio of well-chosen, high-quality, dividend-growing stocks has been killing SPY. That's really neither here nor there, because the primary goal is to create a reliable, growing income stream. But the secondary goal is to achieve outstanding total return, and a long-term plan of buying great companies (preferably at attractive valuation points), holding them for years, adding along the way, and reinvesting dividends will do (and has done) just fine in the total-return department.

Unlike you (apparently), I have made plenty of investing mistakes. My biggest losers have been CVS, GILD, KMI and QCOM. I also held on to KHC too long. And in my public portfolio, I paid too much for MMM.

But the nice thing about having a diversified portfolio of quality companies is that one can survive a few losers to have a winning portfolio. No investor is perfect. Not Buffett, not Lynch, not Kass. Except maybe you. Maybe Smuggles is the one perfect investor.

Anyhoo, I'm still glad I bought AAPL under $95, DIS under $100, MCD under $90 and NKE under $50. And you're still wrong about DIS being doomed and AAPL being a bad buy in the low-$90s.

Have a nice day!
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #267 on: April 13, 2019, 06:06:27 PM »
Before this thread got sidetracked into a pissing match as to who is the better investor (and yes I'm equally guilty), the original idea was is cable/sat TV ending?

Let's get back to that.

As I noted above, DIS was smashed in August 2015 when they came out and said ESPN was losing cable/Sat subscribers and made a new high this week when they finally gave up and announced a new streaming service (while undercutting NetFlix's price).

So ... and I would like to hear from Chicos here ...

For brevity, I'll make some statements, agree or disagree with them ...

Dinsey is a major player, but getting into the streaming business, cable and Sat will now accelerate out of business.  Five to ten years and the business will be essentially gone (I say essentially because there will be some old people that will hold on refusing to change).

5G, which was rolled out in a very limited demonstration way this month, will accelerate this.  Paying for hard-wired internet access will also go away (or the price of a cable modem with 1G speeds will drop to $5 to $10/month so you'll keep it for the same reason you still have a landline).

So, the MU season of 2029 will be streamed.  Every college basketball game will be streamed.  There will be apps and websites called ESPN and FS1 but they will be a low monthly payment. (yes, it is streamed now.  I'm saying only streamed, no more cable or Sat.  No more asking what channel is ESPN.  Kids will forget what a TV channel was in due time)

Apple will jump in, like Sling and Youtube, and offer ala carte bundling to make surfing more efficient.

So Disney's announcement is the Mouse gave up and joined the 21st century, things will move fast now.

You will not recognize the TV business in 10 years.

-------------

82/Chico - DIS is now a buy.  They get it.  Defending the old world is over.  DIS is a tremendous producer of content and now that they got out of the business of supporting cable, they can see their value really go up.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 06:25:12 PM by Heisenberg v2.0 »

MU82

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #268 on: April 13, 2019, 06:35:33 PM »
Before this thread got sidetracked into a pissing match as to who is the better investor (and yes I'm equally guilty), the original idea was is cable/sat TV ending?

Let's get back to that.

As I noted above, DIS was smashed in August 2015 when they came out and said ESPN was losing cable/Sat subscribers and made a new high this week when they finally gave up and announced a new streaming service (while undercutting NetFlix's price).

So ... and I would like to hear from Chicos here ...

For brevity, I'll make some statements, agree or disagree with them ...

Dinsey is a major player, but getting into the streaming business, cable and Sat will now accelerate out of business.  Five to ten years and the business will be essentially gone (I say essentially because there will be some old people that will hold on refusing to change).

5G, which was rolled out in a very limited demonstration way this month, will accelerate this.  Paying for hard-wired internet access will also go away (or the price of a cable modem with 1G speeds will drop to $5 to $10/month so you'll keep it for the same reason you still have a landline).

So, the MU season of 2029 will be streamed.  Every college basketball game will be streamed.  There will be apps and websites called ESPN and FS1 but they will be a low monthly payment. (yes, it is streamed now.  I'm saying only streamed, no more cable or Sat.  No more asking what channel is ESPN.  Kids will forget what a TV channel was in due time)

Apple will jump in, like Sling and Youtube, and offer ala carte bundling to make surfing more efficient.

So Disney's announcement is the Mouse gave up and joined the 21st century, things will move fast now.

You will not recognize the TV business in 10 years.

-------------

82/Chico - DIS is now a buy.  They get it.  Defending the old world is over.  DIS is a tremendous producer of content and now that they got out of the business of supporting cable, they can see their value really go up.

Nice pivot, Smuggles.

I'll let chicos take it from here.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #269 on: April 20, 2019, 08:54:15 PM »
https://www.statista.com/chart/17724/net-subscriber-loss-of-the-largest-pay-tv-providers-in-the-united-states/

According to Leichtman Research Group, the largest pay-TV providers in the United States, accounting for 95 percent of all subscribers, lost more than 2.85 million subscribers, collectively, in 2018, with satellite services seeing the biggest drop in customers (-2.4 million) and cable companies also losing 0.9 million subs. Part of the decline was offset by a rise in internet-delivered services such as Sling TV, but overall things are looking increasingly bleak for the pay-TV industry.

As the following chart shows, cord-cutting is really picking up pace, with net subscriber losses of the largest pay-TV providers growing from 125,000 in 2014 to 2.85 million last year, with total subscriber losses amounting to more than 5.5 million over the five-year period. At the same time, household penetration of SVOD services has grown from 47 percent to 69 percent between 2014 and 2018, indicating who is likely to blame for pay-TV’s losses.


jesmu84

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #270 on: April 21, 2019, 12:10:32 AM »
With the arrival of Disney+ and all the subsequent streaming services, consumers will quickly turn back to piracy. The whole success of Netflix was not based on just cost, but also convenience. If consumers have to now subscribe to 10 different services just to be able to stream their content, they'll give up. Piracy will return again.

Cable is back. But instead of a TV box and a cord, it's a dozen logins and passwords and monthly payments.

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #271 on: April 21, 2019, 09:21:18 PM »
With the arrival of Disney+ and all the subsequent streaming services, consumers will quickly turn back to piracy. The whole success of Netflix was not based on just cost, but also convenience. If consumers have to now subscribe to 10 different services just to be able to stream their content, they'll give up. Piracy will return again.

Cable is back. But instead of a TV box and a cord, it's a dozen logins and passwords and monthly payments.

Sling, youtube red, and Prime are offering aggregation of these services.

The problem is they are seeing "bloat" as they add more and more and raise their prices.  Eventually, they will have to offer a menu and let you pick and choose.

Cheeks

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #272 on: April 23, 2019, 09:50:27 PM »
If you bought Disney stock 10 years ago, you made a 660% return....the S&P during that time went up 240% according to CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/15/what-a-1000-dollar-investment-in-disney-10-years-ago-would-be-worth-now.html

"The tournament is a crapshoot. It shouldn't be everything. It's such a shallow thing to pin everything on."
Gonzaga Head Coach Mark Few

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #273 on: April 23, 2019, 09:56:44 PM »
If you bought Disney stock 10 years ago, you made a 660% return....the S&P during that time went up 240% according to CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/15/what-a-1000-dollar-investment-in-disney-10-years-ago-would-be-worth-now.html

No one said to sell it 10 years ago.

Cheeks

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Re: Is ESPN In Trouble (cord-cutter)
« Reply #274 on: April 23, 2019, 10:04:16 PM »

As I noted above, DIS was smashed in August 2015 when they came out and said ESPN was losing cable/Sat subscribers and made a new high this week when they finally gave up and announced a new streaming service (while undercutting NetFlix's price).

So ... and I would like to hear from Chicos here ...

For brevity, I'll make some statements, agree or disagree with them ...

Dinsey is a major player, but getting into the streaming business, cable and Sat will now accelerate out of business.  Five to ten years and the business will be essentially gone (I say essentially because there will be some old people that will hold on refusing to change).

5G, which was rolled out in a very limited demonstration way this month, will accelerate this.  Paying for hard-wired internet access will also go away (or the price of a cable modem with 1G speeds will drop to $5 to $10/month so you'll keep it for the same reason you still have a landline).

So, the MU season of 2029 will be streamed.  Every college basketball game will be streamed.  There will be apps and websites called ESPN and FS1 but they will be a low monthly payment. (yes, it is streamed now.  I'm saying only streamed, no more cable or Sat.  No more asking what channel is ESPN.  Kids will forget what a TV channel was in due time)

Apple will jump in, like Sling and Youtube, and offer ala carte bundling to make surfing more efficient.

So Disney's announcement is the Mouse gave up and joined the 21st century, things will move fast now.

You will not recognize the TV business in 10 years.

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82/Chico - DIS is now a buy.  They get it.  Defending the old world is over.  DIS is a tremendous producer of content and now that they got out of the business of supporting cable, they can see their value really go up.

Not exactly.  First off, Disney is working with all major satellite and cable companies to put Disney + ON THEIR systems. Just as Netflix is doing on Comcast, Dish and others.  Why?  Simple.  The bundle still is the most economical benefit to them.  Disney still gets paid monthly by millions of subscribers whether they watch or not their content on those platforms.  So in an odd way, they are actually incentivized to keep the old world in play as you describe it.

As cord cutting increases, you also see wide distribution of their products and others on things like YouTubeTV, Hulu (which after their purchase of AT&T's 10% stake two weeks ago, they own huge majority), Sling, Vue, etc. 

In addition, they are going after the DTC, or Direct to Consumer market in the same way Warner Brothers (AT&T) will later this year with their offering, or ESPN+ has with theirs.  But all of those services are add-ons, not meant to be solo services.  The data shows clearly that is the case.  Very few people have only ESPN+ or only Netflix, they become multiples of each others.  There are certainly some people that don't have any of the networks you get with CBS, ABC, NBC, FOX, but the vast majority in this country still do.

In terms of the timing, we will have to see.  As I said a few years ago and this will continue, the content creators are going to get their pound of flesh one way or another.  They are the most powerful piece of the value chain and more powerful now than ever.  They will continue to consolidate, raise prices to maintain their revenue and margin streams.

The piracy angle is a big one for me and one I have been screaming about within the industry for some time. The last 18 months it has finally woken some people up, and really starting to hit higher gear in the last few months.  We'll see if that momentum continues.  The technology is there to stop it, a matter of when the will kicks in.  Also a matter of when the lawmakers kick in to punish the companies allowing it (i.e. broadband providers, wireless, etc) and down to the individuals.  I suspect when the money dries up to their campaign coffers from the content companies, that is when you will see it.

Finally, 5G still has a long way to go in one sense, and a short time in another.  It is here now....sort of.  But the build out of antennas with the density needed is long, expensive.  You are going to see slivers withing DMAs that will expand over time, but it will be pocketized for some time.  Apple isn't even jumping in until next year.  Samsung has a phone as does Motorola.  It's fun, cool, fast....but depending on where you live you could be waiting quite some time.
"The tournament is a crapshoot. It shouldn't be everything. It's such a shallow thing to pin everything on."
Gonzaga Head Coach Mark Few