Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?

[rocket surgeon]

So funny that the stocks you bought and have scored nicely on ARE our business.

But after telling us you bought three stocks recently, those AREN'T our business.

I'm guessing that if one of the newbies go "up 376% since I bought," it suddenly will become our business. If you end up down 75% on them, they'll remain none of our business.

As Archie used to say to Edith, "You're a pip."

i don't know if i should laugh or cry here-what the... is all the squat about THE THREE STOCKS he bought recently?  i'll tell you why he's not telling you-cuz if he does, all of you will run out and buy and then if they don't do well, chicos will never forgive himself

good luck on those by the way

[Dr. Blackheart]

Here was a long term buy i got in on three years ago. Still a lot of upside. Over 130 today before some profit taking pre-holiday.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=STZ+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true}

[rocket surgeon]

Here was a long term buy i got in on three years ago. Still a lot of upside. Over 130 today before some profit taking pre-holiday.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=STZ+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true}

NICE!!! 

[brandx]

i don't know if i should laugh or cry here-what the... is all the squat about THE THREE STOCKS he bought recently?  i'll tell you why he's not telling you-cuz if he does, all of you will run out and buy and then if they don't do well, chicos will never forgive himself

good luck on those by the way

I like to tell people I won $250,000+ at the dog track one year. Absolutely true. But, I always add that I wagered about $240,000 that year.

So someone saying they picked 3 good stocks does not mean they made a penny in the stock market. What other stocks did they also buy?

[rocket surgeon]

same thing when i tell people i never have to pay for a room in las vegas....funny thing is most times the room is paid for at the tables, slots or sports book.  true story though-my wife hit a 3 card royal flush about 4-5 years ago with her money on the progressive-$16,000.  i don't think we've lost combined 16k yet.  we're not big big gamblers, many times come out even or down a few hundred.  so based on that, we are probably up yet.  i did take a beating by my standards last march madness-lost $2500 which is nothing-guys have lost that falling out of their pockets there

[tower912]

It will drop due to a 5.1% unemployment rate, fueling fears that the Fed will raise the interest rate.    I have always been fascinated by the logic that low unemployment is bad news for stocks.

[GooooMarquette]

It will drop due to a 5.1% unemployment rate, fueling fears that the Fed will raise the interest rate.    I have always been fascinated by the logic that low unemployment is bad news for stocks.

Agreed.  Many investors these days simply don't know what they want.

If today's unemployment numbers had looked bad...the market would drop because people would be worried that the US economy is bad.  If today's unemployment numbers looked good (as they did)...the market would drop because people would worry that the good economic news will lead to a Fed rate hike.

Fortunately, regardless of the cause for today's panic sell-off, the markets will bounce back next week.  And if the Fed actually does raise rates, that'll cause another drop...but then we'll bounce back again.

[brandx]

Agreed.  Many investors these days simply don't know what they want.

If today's unemployment numbers had looked bad...the market would drop because people would be worried that the US economy is bad.  If today's unemployment numbers looked good (as they did)...the market would drop because people would worry that the good economic news will lead to a Fed rate hike.

Fortunately, regardless of the cause for today's panic sell-off, the markets will bounce back next week.  And if the Fed actually does raise rates, that'll cause another drop...but then we'll bounce back again.

Excellent post.

[jficke13]

It will drop due to a 5.1% unemployment rate, fueling fears that the Fed will raise the interest rate.    I have always been fascinated by the logic that low unemployment is bad news for stocks.

It's bad news when it spells the end of the near 0-cost access to financing that the Fed has established by keeping rates so low for so long.

[MU82]

More than anything else, Mr. Market dislikes uncertainty.

If the Fed just goes ahead and announces a small rate hike, there would be a knee-jerk sell-off, especially in REITs, utilities and other sectors directly affected, but then things would quickly level out and the market would return to "normal."

These weeks and months of "will the Fed raise?" and "why won't the Fed raise?" and "when will the Fed raise?" have contributed greatly to the volatility.

[ChicosBailBonds]

It's bad news when it spells the end of the near 0-cost access to financing that the Fed has established by keeping rates so low for so long.

Bingo.  The unemployment number is not what spooks the markets, it is the free money everyone has had access to for crazy number of years.  That is also what has fueled stock buybacks by companies.  It was cheaper to buy their own stock when money is so damn cheap.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Here was a long term buy i got in on three years ago. Still a lot of upside. Over 130 today before some profit taking pre-holiday.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=STZ+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true}

Up $3.25 today.  Hope some of you jamokes listened to me.  Don't ever say I didn't help my Scoop brothers out. 

http://www.thestreet.com/quote/STZ.html

[Goose]

Dr. Blackheart

You are wise man. Keep educated the young guys on here.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Here was a long term buy i got in on three years ago. Still a lot of upside. Over 130 today before some profit taking pre-holiday.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=STZ+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true}

Hedge funds jumped in big today, up $2.59 to $142.85. Will be some profit taking at year's end and approaching high end of PEG.  However, forward speculation with Ballast Point acquisition, continued strong growth in Corona and Modelo, and an early Sierra snowpack with El Niño to help the grape harvest.  If you bet your house in early September at $130, you are now a multi-millionaire two months later.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Hedge funds jumped in big today, up $2.59 to $142.85. Will be some profit taking at year's end and approaching high end of PEG.  However, forward speculation with Ballast Point acquisition, continued strong growth in Corona and Modelo, and an early Sierra snowpack with El Niño to help the grape harvest.  If you bet your house in early September at $130, you are now a multi-millionaire two months later.

If you bet your house on Disney a few months ago, same thing.   

[Dr. Blackheart]

If you bet your house on Disney a few months ago, same thing.   

Yep. If you sold on your stop gap to profit take, and then bought at the bottom on the way up with that profit. But you didn't.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yep. If you sold on your stop gap to profit take, and then bought at the bottom on the way up with that profit. But you didn't.

I just bought on the way down and all the way at the bottom, up $27 since then.   All fun. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

I just bought on the way down and all the way at the bottom, up $27 since then.   All fun.

So the Backyard Beer Summits are this:


When they could have been this?:

[ChicosBailBonds]

Nope, instead going to pay for college tuition and the like. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Nope, instead going to pay for college tuition and the like.

All kidding aside, you had the foresight on Disney.  It has historically been solid.  I think there is some evolving risk.  However, do this math:  If instead of buying on the way down in increments, you sold on increments to some base (say you held 1000 shares, and you wanted to keep a base of 400 for the long term play and sold 100 at a time on the way down to 90).  And you kept the profits in cash until the bottom where you got back in.  What would be your profit versus what your current strategy was?  The difference would be four years of private college paid. 

You had the insight.  There was money to be made off the bounce of the mouse.

Btw, Yellen is speaking today.  Some bad economic news in November on factories.  The economy is sideways down driven by that long term negative consumer spending trend--expect volatility here.

[jficke13]

All kidding aside, you had the foresight on Disney.  It has historically been solid.  I think there is some evolving risk.  However, do this math:  If instead of buying on the way down in increments, you sold on increments to some base (say you held 1000 shares, and you wanted to keep a base of 400 for the long term play and sold 100 at a time on the way down to 90).  And you kept the profits in cash until the bottom where you got back in.  What would be your profit versus what your current strategy was?  The difference would be four years of private college paid. 

You had the insight.  There was money to be made off the bounce of the mouse.

Btw, Yellen is speaking today.  Some bad economic news in November on factories.  The economy is sideways down driven by that long term negative consumer spending trend--expect volatility here.

Problem I see there is that having the insight on DIS long term prospects being strong is easier to execute than incrementally selling on the way down because eventually you'd need to call the bottom correctly. By buying into the weakness you get the chance to accumulate shares and lower your basis and you only need to be right about the underlying thesis: DIS is strong long term. Selling into the weakness you need to get the thesis right but also time the bottom, right?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Problem I see there is that having the insight on DIS long term prospects being strong is easier to execute than incrementally selling on the way down because eventually you'd need to call the bottom correctly. By buying into the weakness you get the chance to accumulate shares and lower your basis and you only need to be right about the underlying thesis: DIS is strong long term. Selling into the weakness you need to get the thesis right but also time the bottom, right?

That's how I approach it, because I'm not smart enough to figure out where bottom is.  I just go for what I think is below value, and if the price drops and continues to be even further below value, I grab more.

Yellen's comments will be interesting.  So many pushing for rate increases (I'm one of them), but so many politics involved as well.  We have to get off the teat of QE and essentially 0% interest at some point.  It is going to mean a little pain, but that pain has got to start.

[GGGG]

Our economy could use a little inflation.  It will hurt in the short term but would be very beneficial in the long term. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Disney announces higher than anticipated dividend today.

Cheers!!!

[Jay Bee]

If you bet your house in early September at $130, you are now a multi-millionaire two months later.

On a 10% gain? Umm...