The way too early 2016 NCAA Bracket

[muwarrior69]

http://sportswire.usatoday.com/2015/06/17/2015-summer-bracketology-projecting-the-way-too-early-field-of-68/

MU one of last 4 in. Maybe there is hope for a turn around season. I know, but it's fun to speculate.

[Galway Eagle]

Would be fun to see what TAMU eagle would do if we ended up in a MU vs TAMU game

[bilsu]

Who here is going to Dayton?

[dgies9156]

I think we're going to be better than that.

You heard it here first. I think we all will be surprised at how good we will be come winter.

I CAN HARDLY WAIT FOR THE FIRST FROST!!!!!!!

[#UnleashSean]

I believe we will be far better then that, but crap, that looks to be a fairly easy ride  to a sweet 16/elite 8 if you beat Arizona, which would be possible with next years lineup.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Would be fun to see what TAMU eagle would do if we ended up in a MU vs TAMU game

A&M gets me as a football fan. My heart will always belong to MU in everything else....I might get fired after the game though

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

http://sportswire.usatoday.com/2015/06/17/2015-summer-bracketology-projecting-the-way-too-early-field-of-68/

MU one of last 4 in. Maybe there is hope for a turn around season. I know, but it's fun to speculate.

I'm working on a version of this for Paint Touches. Not done with my research but here are my initial thoughts:

Kentucky is way too high. I have them in the 7 to 9 seed range
Wichita State is 1 seed material
Michigan State has 2 seed talent, but will underperform due to lack of a true PG
NC State is way too high. I don't think they make the tournament. Victims of a top heavy ACC
Purdue will be good but not three seed good
Wisconsin too high. They will struggle but will eventually sneak into the tournament
West Virginia too low IMHO, but might be right because of how good the top of the Big 12 is
California is too high. They're 2 stud freshmen are great, but the supporting cast is not there
Syracuse is too high, think they will be one of the last ones in
Vanderbilt will surprise people. I think they win the SEC (come home LaChance!)
Cincy should win the AAC, I think they are around a 5 seed
Tulsa ain't making the tournament. They aren't good enough to compete with the top half of the AAC and the bottom half will kill their RPI
Arkansas isn't sniffing this tournament
I hate to say it, but I don't think either Illinois State or Marquette will make the tourney
Xavier is gonna be better than people think. 7-10 seed material
UConn, led by their two grad transfer studs, will be back in the tourney
Most of the autobid picks are lazy. Just took the best team from last year and said they would win again.

[Warrior Code]

Marquette to the Final Four!

[Dawson Rental]

Texas A&M a sixth seed?  Are you kidding me????











#TAMUEagle lure

[Smokin' Jae]

Wow. I hate Wisconsin as much as the next guy, but there is no way they struggle this year and they will be firmly in the field. Certainly down from last year, but I'd expect them to be about a 4 seed.

[Nukem2]

Never mind

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wow. I hate Wisconsin as much as the next guy, but there is no way they struggle this year and they will be firmly in the field. Certainly down from last year, but I'd expect them to be about a 4 seed.

Why?

Look at what they return.

PG: Koneig: 8.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.2 spg, .405 3P%
SG: Gasser: Graduated
SF: Dekker: Declared for the draft
PF: Hayes: 12.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.9 sg, .396 3P%
C: Kaminsky: Graduated

Bench
1: Jackson: Graduated
2: Dukan: Graduated
3: Showalter: 2.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.3 spg, .143 3P%
4: Brown: 1.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.2 bpg, .000 3P%

Now look at what they bring in:
Pritzil: #87 ranked player
Happ: 2014 #150 ranked player coming off redshirt
Illikainen: #137 ranked player
Thomas: #324 ranked player
Iverson: #340 ranked player
Van Vliet: Unranked player

That leads to a likely rotation of:

PG: Koneig: 8.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.2 spg, .405 3P%
SG: Pritzil: #87 ranked player
SF: Hayes: 12.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.9 sg, .396 3P%
PF: Happ: 2014 #150 ranked player coming off redshirt
C: Illikainen: #137 ranked player

Bench
1: Showalter: 2.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.3 spg, .143 3P%
2: Brown: 1.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.2 bpg, .000 3P%
3: Thomas: #324 ranked player
4: Iverson: #340 ranked player

Does that really seem like a 4 seed rotation to you? They would need massive contributions from three freshmen who aren't that heralded or huge improvements from Showalter or Brown to be a legitimate contender. The only reason I think they even make the tournament is because of my respect for Bo Ryan being able to get the best out of his players.

You also have to take the strength of the Big 10 into account as well. I can almost guarantee that Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue will all be better than Wisconsin. I think Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan all have an argument for being better than Wisconsin. I think the Badgers finish somewhere between 5th-8th in the B1G this year.

[withoutbias]

Why?

Look at what they return.

PG: Koneig: 8.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.2 spg, .405 3P%
SG: Gasser: Graduated
SF: Dekker: Declared for the draft
PF: Hayes: 12.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.9 sg, .396 3P%
C: Kaminsky: Graduated

Bench
1: Jackson: Graduated
2: Dukan: Graduated
3: Showalter: 2.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.3 spg, .143 3P%
4: Brown: 1.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.2 bpg, .000 3P%

Now look at what they bring in:
Pritzil: #87 ranked player
Happ: 2014 #150 ranked player coming off redshirt
Illikainen: #137 ranked player
Thomas: #324 ranked player
Iverson: #340 ranked player
Van Vliet: Unranked player

That leads to a likely rotation of:

PG: Koneig: 8.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.2 spg, .405 3P%
SG: Pritzil: #87 ranked player
SF: Hayes: 12.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.9 sg, .396 3P%
PF: Happ: 2014 #150 ranked player coming off redshirt
C: Illikainen: #137 ranked player

Bench
1: Showalter: 2.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.3 spg, .143 3P%
2: Brown: 1.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.2 bpg, .000 3P%
3: Thomas: #324 ranked player
4: Iverson: #340 ranked player

Does that really seem like a 4 seed rotation to you? They would need massive contributions from three freshmen who aren't that heralded or huge improvements from Showalter or Brown to be a legitimate contender. The only reason I think they even make the tournament is because of my respect for Bo Ryan being able to get the best out of his players.

You also have to take the strength of the Big 10 into account as well. I can almost guarantee that Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue will all be better than Wisconsin. I think Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan all have an argument for being better than Wisconsin. I think the Badgers finish somewhere between 5th-8th in the B1G this year.

you still haven't learned anything about bo and his system have you?  he could plug me in there and i'd be a 12 and 5 guy for him.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

you still haven't learned anything about bo and his system have you?  he could plug me in there and i'd be a 12 and 5 guy for him.

I know all about his system. It requires upperclassmen to work. Relying this heavily on freshmen will not go well for Bo. That being said, "not going well for Bo" still means making the tournament.

[brewcity77]

This may be the first time Bo doesn't have any seniors. Koenig and Hayes are solid, but no one else has shown they should be expected to be a real contributor. Showalter is a lesser Gasser, Brown ous down right terrible (and not in the Frank Kaminski "doesn't play much so probably won't be good" way but in the "when he does play he's terrible" way), and no one else returning has any actual experience.

Will they make the tourney? Probably. But they'll need at least 3-4 guys to step up significantly just to get in. This is the year Bo's top-4 Big Ten streak ends, and the worst team he's ever had to work with in Madison, unless there's a hidden 5-star freshman or Happ is the second coming.

[withoutbias]

other than going into last season, when people knew they would be good, it's been the same song and dance every single year for the badgers.  "look what they lost!  they can't win with that!  they have nobody anymore!  they graduated everyone!  these 2 will be okay but nobody else has done anything!  they're a bubble team at best!  this is the season that bo finally doesn't finish top 4 in the b1g!"

it's like my bills fan this year claiming that the bills were going to win their division after the patriot's slow start like 4 weeks into the nfl season.  hilarious.  one thing that every fan in that division should know is to never sleep on tom brady.  just like every marquette and b1g fan should know to never sleep on bo ryan.  never.

i'll believe it when i see it.  or when bo retires.

now, if you told me they'd get a 4 or 5 seed and be bounced first round, then that would be more believable.

[Galway Eagle]

I think they'll make the tournament and go nowhere. I don't think they'll finish top 4 in the B1G. And IF there was a year their streak will end its this year. 

[dgies9156]

I thought this was a Marquette board.

Those of you with Badger envy (a curable disease by the way) should go to the Wisconsin boards.

We are Marquette:
  1) We will rebound and do surprisingly well next year.
  2) We will make the tournament in 2016
  3) We will defeat the vile rodent from Madison

Does anything else matter?

Go away Badger trolls

[Dawson Rental]

I thought this was a Marquette board.

Those of you with Badger envy (a curable disease by the way) should go to the Wisconsin boards.

We are Marquette:
 1) We will rebound and do surprisingly well next year.
 2) We will make the tournament in 2016
 3) We will defeat the vile rodent from Madison

Does anything else matter?

Go away Badger trolls

I don't see how Marquette fans discussing a Wisconsin team that we play every year and have a huge rivalry with is trolling for the Badgers.  This is a discussion board.  If you don't care for what's being discussed, that is easily cured, give it a pass.  No one on this board is obligated to post only that which amuses you.

[willie warrior]

http://sportswire.usatoday.com/2015/06/17/2015-summer-bracketology-projecting-the-way-too-early-field-of-68/

MU one of last 4 in. Maybe there is hope for a turn around season. I know, but it's fun to speculate.

Oh..the outrage. We return no seniors from an abysmal last year....we should be getting a top 4 seed.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

other than going into last season, when people knew they would be good, it's been the same song and dance every single year for the badgers.  "look what they lost!  they can't win with that!  they have nobody anymore!  they graduated everyone!  these 2 will be okay but nobody else has done anything!  they're a bubble team at best!  this is the season that bo finally doesn't finish top 4 in the b1g!"

it's like my bills fan this year claiming that the bills were going to win their division after the patriot's slow start like 4 weeks into the nfl season.  hilarious.  one thing that every fan in that division should know is to never sleep on tom brady.  just like every marquette and b1g fan should know to never sleep on bo ryan.  never.

i'll believe it when i see it.  or when bo retires.

now, if you told me they'd get a 4 or 5 seed and be bounced first round, then that would be more believable.

If you find me another year where Bo had 0 seniors, 4 juniors, 0 sophomores who have ever averaged more than 3 minutes a game, and had to rely on at least five freshmen playing significant minutes (where only one of them was ranked in the top 100...and it was in the bottom quarter), then I would say it was the same thing.

Bo's system needs upperclassmen with experience. He doesn't have that this year. They will struggle. Bo's streak of top 4 B1G finishes ends this year. However, next year, they will be pretty damn good again (assuming no surprising departures).

[DoggyDaddy]

I agree with earler comments, let's avoid discussing the team to the west, at least until we are about to play them again. They had a great run last year and got close to winning the whole thing. Bo is unlikely to get that close again before he retires. Our chances with a young coach who has demonstrated his recruiting chops, is better.       

[withoutbias]

If you find me another year where Bo had 0 seniors, 4 juniors, 0 sophomores who have ever averaged more than 3 minutes a game, and had to rely on at least five freshmen playing significant minutes (where only one of them was ranked in the top 100...and it was in the bottom quarter), then I would say it was the same thing.

Bo's system needs upperclassmen with experience. He doesn't have that this year. They will struggle. Bo's streak of top 4 B1G finishes ends this year. However, next year, they will be pretty damn good again (assuming no surprising departures).

it's not very hard.  the 2013-2014 team that went to the final four had jackson and brust as the only 2 upper classmen who had been contributors on the 2012-2013 team.  the only players to average 15+ mpg on the 13-14 team were brust, gasser, jackson, dekker, kaminsky, hayes, and koenig.  brust and jackson were upper classmen who averaged 34 and 27 mpg, respectively, the year before.  kaminsky averaged 10 mpg, gasser was out with injury and didn't play, dekker was a sophomore (underclassman) in 13-14, and hayes and koenig were both freshman in 13-14.  they finished in the top 4 of the b1g and went to the final four.

this season they will have hayes and koenig as their 2 upper classmen who were contributors on the past year's team, just like the 13-14 team had jackson and brust, and there is no doubt whatsoever that the combination of hayes and koenig is far better than jackson and brust were (brust was underrated, but jackson was bad and it's no surprise that the badgers really rounded into form once koenig took the reigns when jackson got hurt last season).

i'm sure there are plenty more examples, but i didn't waste my time when really it took the first year prior to last season (when everyone expected them to be very good for the first time under bo).

now, find me a year where bo's team has been bad in the regular season and then i would be on your side.  but that hasn't happened.

[Galway Eagle]

it's not very hard.  the 2013-2014 team that went to the final four had jackson and brust as the only 2 upper classmen who had been contributors on the 2012-2013 team.  the only players to average 15+ mpg on the 13-14 team were brust, gasser, jackson, dekker, kaminsky, hayes, and koenig.  brust and jackson were upper classmen who averaged 34 and 27 mpg, respectively, the year before.  kaminsky averaged 10 mpg, gasser was out with injury and didn't play, dekker was a sophomore (underclassman) in 13-14, and hayes and koenig were both freshman in 13-14.  they finished in the top 4 of the b1g and went to the final four.

this season they will have hayes and koenig as their 2 upper classmen who were contributors on the past year's team, just like the 13-14 team had jackson and brust, and there is no doubt whatsoever that the combination of hayes and koenig is far better than jackson and brust were (brust was underrated, but jackson was bad and it's no surprise that the badgers really rounded into form once koenig took the reigns when jackson got hurt last season).

i'm sure there are plenty more examples, but i didn't waste my time when really it took the first year prior to last season (when everyone expected them to be very good for the first time under bo).

now, find me a year where bo's team has been bad in the regular season and then i would be on your side.  but that hasn't happened.

Are we limited to Madison in this search? Because he was pretty bad at UWmilwaukee

[brewcity77]

other than going into last season, when people knew they would be good, it's been the same song and dance every single year for the badgers.  "look what they lost!  they can't win with that!  they have nobody anymore!  they graduated everyone!  these 2 will be okay but nobody else has done anything!  they're a bubble team at best!  this is the season that bo finally doesn't finish top 4 in the b1g!"

I know where you're coming from, and yes, history is on Bo's side. However, here's why I think this year's team is different. Let's look at the makeup of recent teams:
.

• 2007-08: Lost Tucker & Taylor, but returned Butch, Landry, Flowers, & Krabbenhoft, all upperclassmen that were high offensive efficiency players, even in limited minutes as underclassmen.
  
• 2008-09: Lost Butch & Flowers, but returned Hughes, Landry, Bohannon, & Krabbenhoft, all upperclassmen that were high offensive efficiency players.
  
• 2009-10: Lost Krabbenhoft & Landry, but returned Hughes, Bohannon, Jarmusz, Leuer, & Nankivil, all upperclassmen that were high offensive efficiency players.
  
• 2010-11: Lost Hughes & Bohannon, but returned Leuer, Nankivil, Taylor, & Jarmusz, all upperclassmen that were high offensive efficiency players.
  
• 2011-12: Lost Leuer, Nankivil, & Jarmusz, but returned Taylor, Berggren, & Brusewitz, all upperclassmen that were high offensive efficiency players.
  
• 2012-13: Lost Taylor, but returned Berggren, Brusewitz, & Brust, all upperclassmen that were high offensive efficiency players. Also a huge boost from 5-star freshman Dekker.
  
• 2013-14: Lost Berggren & Brusewitz, but returned Kaminsky, Brust, and Gasser, all upperclassmen that were high offensive efficiency players, as well as Dekker. I know everyone was shocked by Kaminsky, myself included, but his freshman/sophomore efficiencies of 105.8/122.4, even in limited minutes, should have let us know he might be good. No one expected him to be that good, but there were definitely indicators before his breakout junior season.
  
• 2014-15: Lost Brust, but returned Kaminsky, Gasser, Dekker, Jackson, and Dukan, all upperclassmen that were high offensive efficiency players.

.
Those teams also all had a number of underclassmen that were at least playing well. But every Bo team in the past 8 years had 3-5 upperclassmen to carry them that had a proven track record of efficient offensive play. Every single team. Now let's take a quick look at what's different about this year's team:

1) No seniors. Unless you count Jordan Smith. And you really shouldn't.
2) Only two meaningful upperclassmen. Hayes and Koenig are great. No denying that. But Vitto Brown is terrible. And Showalter may be a poor man's Gasser, and has been efficient in very limited minutes, but can't shoot a three, something Bo's teams need out of that role if he's going to become a team leader (16.7% career 3P%).
3) No depth. After those 4 names I mentioned above, no one on Bo's team has ever played even a full game's worth of minutes in a season. 39 for Dearring last year, 35 for Smith last year.
4) Huge freshman reliance. In the past 8 years, only 3 freshmen have played 40% of the Badgers minutes -- Gasser (69.9%), Dekker (54.9%), & Hayes (43.5%). This year most likely at least 3 of the Badger freshmen will have to do that. So is anyone willing to bet that Happ, Pritzl, and Illikainen (the likely 3) will all be able to have similar freshman impacts to Gasser, Dekker, & Hayes?

I get the believing in Bo and his system, but if you look at the strength of his system, it's the presence of proven juniors and seniors (which he has few compared to the past) and relatively little contributions from freshmen. This year he won't have the upperclassmen and will have to get major contributions from freshmen. It's a totally different team from anything he has ever had. That, coupled with a stronger Big Ten and a more difficult Big Ten schedule for Wisconsin is exactly why I think the top-four streak is over.