Tipping point - Technology is now destroying more jobs than it creates

[Tugg Speedman]

I've posted several threads on the massive changes coming.  And while I think they will be good, they will not come easily.  Consequently I think/fear this is correct.  

Pain first and benefit later.  Technological change cannot be stopped.  It will happen.

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We've reached a tipping point where technology is now destroying more jobs than it creates, researcher warns
http://www.businessinsider.com/technology-is-destroying-jobs-and-it-could-spur-a-global-crisis-2015-6#ixzz3c9LVtsKe

The technology is here. But the jobs are nowhere to be found.

Thanks to the efficiency of the internet and automated systems, productivity and GDP have grown during the last few decades, but the middle class and jobs are disappearing.

In fact, we have reached a tipping point where technology is now destroying more jobs than it creates. And if the trend continues we could face a serious crisis in the US and abroad, said Wendell Wallach, a consultant, ethicist, and scholar at the Yale University Interdisciplinary Center for Bioethics.

Robots, 3D printing, and other emerging technologies are all fueling technological unemployment and global wealth disparity, Wallach said.

Technological unemployment is the concept of technology killing more jobs than it produces. While that fear has been considered a Luddite fallacy for the past 200 years, it is now becoming a stark reality, he said.

"This is an unparalleled situation and one that I think could actually lead to all sorts of disruptions once the public starts to catch on that we are truly in the midst of technological unemployment," Wallach said during a presentation at the Carnegie Council for Ethics and International Affairs on Tuesday.

And yet there are no signs of the trend reversing. Because technology is evolving faster than ever before with little to no oversight or regulation, the likelihood of more jobs being replaced by new tech is at an all-time high, Wallach told Business Insider.

In fact, some 47% of present jobs in the US could be computerized in the next 10 to 20 years, according to an Oxford University study published in 2013.

Wallach, who authored "A Dangerous Master: How to Keep Technology from Slipping Beyond Our Control," said that as new technologies continue to displace workers, wage stagnation in the US and around the world will also continue to grow.

Traditionally, elements like productivity, jobs, hourly wages, and income all grew in unison. However, during the last 30 years GDP and productivity grew while the US median income stopped and employment flattened, Wallach writes in his new book. Technology innovation has played a significant role in this trend.

"For most of our history 50% of GDP went to wages and 50% went to capital, and we are seeing a radical alteration in that largely because of the anomalies of money being made in high tech industries," he said. "That's not anybody doing anything wrong, that's just technology industries are different from old manufacturers."

So, for example, in 1990 GM, Ford, and Chrysler brought in $36 billion in revenue and hired over a million workers, Wallach said. The big three today — Apple, Facebook, and Google — bring in over a trillion dollars in revenue and only have about 137,000 workers, he said.

This change has created a situation where more and more of the capital is going to a smaller percentage of the population. In fact, we are on course for 70% of stock ownership to be held by 5% of the population, Wallach said.  

This is a dangerous scenario because it could potentially lead to massive social unrest, possibly even revolutions.

"When people no longer receive the money from wages they need to support their families, it is hard to know what they will do, but in the past and in other countries this has been thought of as a situation ripe for a revolution," Wallach said.

However, he added, that such a crisis could be averted if government take action to fix wealth distribution.

"That kind of dire response can of course be avoided through welfare reforms or job subsidies, but these would require redistributing some of the capital growth achieved through from increased productivity," he said.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

So be it. Technology is a good thing.

[Jay Bee]

"destroying jobs" lol

[WellsstreetWanderer]

didn't I read that Walmart was installing robots to package items?   What good will minimum wage do if it is raised and no one is there to earn it?

[Tugg Speedman]

didn't I read that Walmart was installing robots to package items?   What good will minimum wage do if it is raised and no one is there to earn it?

A few years from now Walmart will run commercials that they support yet another increase in the minimum wage. And when you shop their the aisles will be filled with robot stockers, the checkout will be automated and the bagging will be done by a robot arm built into the checkout counter.

At the same time McDonalds will also be supporting minimum wage increases and their restaurants will be automated and you will give your order to a voice recognition computer They are already using keypads and voice recognition at the drive-through window which eliminates jobs inside.

[jesmu84]

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=47609.msg734404#msg734404

But at least you're getting your views

[Tugg Speedman]

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=47609.msg734404#msg734404

But at least you're getting your views

Thanks for reading every word I've ever posted here.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

When robots have all the jobs, isn't socialism the logical conclusion?  No one has a job; no one has money.  Capitalism dies without money.  Without a market, goods and food may as well be given away.  The only motives left are to help your fellow humans.  Robots provide all services.  Kick back, enjoy a life of free time, and have a golden age of altruism.

[mu_hilltopper]

I, for one, welcome our robot overlords. 

My young children, not so much.

[Macallan 18]

Forget robots, I'm more worried about the impending arrival of time immigrants!

https://youtu.be/768h3Tz4Qik

[chapman]

A few years from now Walmart will run commercials that they support yet another increase in the minimum wage. And when you shop their the aisles will be filled with robot stockers, the checkout will be automated and the bagging will be done by a robot arm built into the checkout counter.

Good.  The Wal-Mart cashier dropped my Red Bull today, and they didn't have any other sugar free in the refrigerators.  A robot or self checkout would have avoided the catastrophe of me forgoing my Friday afternoon Red Bull.

[Stronghold]

before you know it 4ever will be patientless to those drillin and fillin robots

[Jay Bee]

before you know it 4ever will be patientless to those drillin and fillin robots

Actually, many dentists now use a chairside CAD/CAM system with a milling chamber...

So instead of taking impressions, tossing in a temporary crown, sending out work to a lab to make the crown... patient comes back in days later.. temp or, perm back from the lab and in...

...the doc uses technology to create a beautiful crown and tosses it into your facehole all at the same appointment. Sorry about that, labs... but it's better for good docs on many types of restorations and better for patients.....

Lots of technology in dentistry already (good docs)

[Tugg Speedman]

Actually, many dentists now use a chairside CAD/CAM system with a milling chamber...

So instead of taking impressions, tossing in a temporary crown, sending out work to a lab to make the crown... patient comes back in days later.. temp or, perm back from the lab and in...

...the doc uses technology to create a beautiful crown and tosses it into your facehole all at the same appointment. Sorry about that, labs... but it's better for good docs on many types of restorations and better for patients.....

Lots of technology in dentistry already (good docs)

Yep, already got two of these this way. 

My first was one of the first my dentist did, took over 2 hours.  The second was about 18 month later and it took less than 50 minutes.

[naginiF]

I read this and think the Topic should be "Heck Yah!, Capitalism!!!".

From domestic farm labor going to immigrants, to manufacturing in China, to call centers in India, etc, etc, the U.S. economy has adjusted and grown despite cries of it's doom.

Isn't it the true test of our economic/political stance that we answer the changing environment in a way that makes us stronger?  I also welcome our robot ov(un)derlords, can't wait to use them to build a vacation house.

[jesmu84]

I read this and think the Topic should be "Heck Yah!, Capitalism!!!".

From domestic farm labor going to immigrants, to manufacturing in China, to call centers in India, etc, etc, the U.S. economy has adjusted and grown despite cries of it's doom.

Isn't it the true test of our economic/political stance that we answer the changing environment in a way that makes us stronger?  I also welcome our robot ov(un)derlords, can't wait to use them to build a vacation house.

The bigger picture problem is that all those things, and robots, are eroding the workspace for lower and middle class. People then get called lazy. And the social safety net isn't meant to hold that many people. Conundrum

[Stronghold]

Change title to: Tipping point - People are spawning at a faster rate than this planet can sustain.

[Stronghold]

Actually, many dentists now use a chairside CAD/CAM system with a milling chamber...

So instead of taking impressions, tossing in a temporary crown, sending out work to a lab to make the crown... patient comes back in days later.. temp or, perm back from the lab and in...

...the doc uses technology to create a beautiful crown and tosses it into your facehole all at the same appointment. Sorry about that, labs... but it's better for good docs on many types of restorations and better for patients.....

Lots of technology in dentistry already (good docs)

CAD/CAM is great but it's also not feasible for every doc to get a $100,000 CEREC unit.  Also for esthetic work a lab tech stacking the porcelain will create a much better result than monolithic zirconia.

[ChicosBailBonds]

When robots have all the jobs, isn't socialism the logical conclusion?  No one has a job; no one has money.  Capitalism dies without money.  Without a market, goods and food may as well be given away.  The only motives left are to help your fellow humans.  Robots provide all services.  Kick back, enjoy a life of free time, and have a golden age of altruism.

You think Socialism lives without money?

LOL

[rocket surgeon]

When robots have all the jobs, isn't socialism the logical conclusion?  No one has a job; no one has money.  Capitalism dies without money.  Without a market, goods and food may as well be given away.  The only motives left are to help your fellow humans.  Robots provide all services.  Kick back, enjoy a life of free time, and have a golden age of altruism.

humans will need to learn how to fill in the gaps-training for maintenance, etc.  what did the iceman do after the development of the refridgerator and freezer?  someone's going to have to make the money to pay for all those obama phones

[martyconlonontherun]

When excel came along, accountants were mortified that a computer could do something in 1 minute that would take them hours to recalculate. Turns out the program made accounting more accessible and created more jobs for accountants since the average mom and pop could use their services.

Like in Jurassic park, life will find a way.

[Eldon]

humans will need to learn how to fill in the gaps-training for maintenance, etc.  what did the iceman do after the development of the refridgerator and freezer?  someone's going to have to make the money to pay for all those obama phones

He played volleyball.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

You think Socialism lives without money?

LOL

Ok, fine. We'll call it "The Communal Food & Property System" instead of socialism. Or perhaps "The Egalitarian System."  No money, everyone shares, everything is free from food to a Ferrari.  If this isn't the result of an all robot workforce, what is?

[Tugg Speedman]

When excel came along, accountants were mortified that a computer could do something in 1 minute that would take them hours to recalculate. Turns out the program made accounting more accessible and created more jobs for accountants since the average mom and pop could use their services.

Like in Jurassic park, life will find a way.

Yes, but getting from here to there will be bumpy.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Ok, fine. We'll call it "The Communal Food & Property System" instead of socialism. Or perhaps "The Egalitarian System."  No money, everyone shares, everything is free from food to a Ferrari.  If this isn't the result of an all robot workforce, what is?

Good luck with that and motivating people to work...whether it is with more food, better housing, whatever, people respond to incentives especially if they are doers.  The takers....not so much.