[Cracked Sidewalks]Ellenson Breaks Into Top 100 After All 2015-16 Rosters Updated

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Ellenson Breaks Into Top 100 After All 2015-16 Rosters Updated

We had hundreds of updates come in for the Value Add database. Henry Ellenson's projection now makes him the projected 94th best player in the country, and if you want to look at 351 projected 2015-16 rosters you can click on the public google docs here and even put edits in column F. The updated Big East projection is:

Big East Value Add
13, Villanova, 41.61
32, Georgetown, 34.63
42, Xavier, 32.62
51, Seton Hall, 30.38
56, Creighton, 28.36
62, Marquette, 27.28 
81, Butler, 24.94
83, Providence, 24.37
96, St. John's, 22.34
123, DePaul, 17.90

Duane Wilson is now at 189th (top 5% of all players) and if Andrew Rowsey did not have to red shirt he would project as Marquette's third best player. His total does not count toward Marquette's 62nd best rating.  I actually cropped a shot of St. John's roster in the database just because it has been the hardest to keep up with as Chris Mullin is replenishing the roster, so feel free to correct personnel on that or any other roster.


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Source: Ellenson Breaks Into Top 100 After All 2015-16 Rosters Updated

[real chili 83]

Ellenson Breaks Into Top 100 After All 2015-16 Rosters Updated

We had hundreds of updates come in for the Value Add database. Henry Ellenson's projection now makes him the projected 94th best player in the country, and if you want to look at 351 projected 2015-16 rosters you can click on the public google docs here and even put edits in column F. The updated Big East projection is:

Big East Value Add
13, Villanova, 41.61
32, Georgetown, 34.63
42, Xavier, 32.62
51, Seton Hall, 30.38
56, Creighton, 28.36
62, Marquette, 27.28&nbsp;
81, Butler, 24.94
83, Providence, 24.37
96, St. John's, 22.34
123, DePaul, 17.90

Duane Wilson is now at 189th (top 5% of all players) and if Andrew Rowsey did not have to red shirt he would project as Marquette's third best player. His total does not count toward Marquette's 62nd best rating. &nbsp;I actually cropped a shot of St. John's roster in the database just because it has been the hardest to keep up with as Chris Mullin is replenishing the roster, so feel free to correct personnel on that or any other roster.


<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-75dx17e7VK8/VWLS3bxkflI/AAAAAAAAEGQ/vD4K_ADF7Uo/s1600/stjohnssamplecropped.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-75dx17e7VK8/VWLS3bxkflI/AAAAAAAAEGQ/vD4K_ADF7Uo/s640/stjohnssamplecropped.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>

Source: Ellenson Breaks Into Top 100 After All 2015-16 Rosters Updated

John, how do you calculate that with no college playing time to work from?

[MU82]

Where does the younger Hauser rank?

How about Ellenson's unconceived son?

[Dawson Rental]

Where does the younger Hauser rank?

How about Ellenson's unconceived son?

Chipper this morning, I see.

[Dawson Rental]

Sone changes that I caught, Sterling Gibbs is eligible immediately for UConn, Ty Outlaw is a VT commit.

The problem with analytics is that performance based numbers don't take into account important factors like Rowsey being a 5'10" Caucasian "chucker".  

With Rowsey sitting out, Luke becomes the third ranked MU player at 3.56 about half a point less than Rowsey.  I'm betting that Luke will exceed his projections this year, though,

[Dr. Blackheart]

Pretty much nailed it last year...
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/08/1st-losing-season-since-1999-possible.html

So a 6th place finish this year?  How does the board feel about that?  MU would need a soft bubble...if no NCAA again, my guess the board would be trending down on Wojo as I sense the fan base is expecting more.

Realistically, with all the newcomers, off season surgeries, a sixth place finish would seem reasonable to me.

[79Warrior]

Pretty much nailed it last year...
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/08/1st-losing-season-since-1999-possible.html

So a 6th place finish this year?  How does the board feel about that?  MU would need a soft bubble...if no NCAA again, my guess the board would be trending down on Wojo as I sense the fan base is expecting more.

Realistically, with all the newcomers, off season surgeries, a sixth place finish would seem reasonable to me.

I tend to agree. A few players really have to improve their play from last season for MU to have an NCAA appearance in 2016.

[GOO]

I tend to agree. A few players really have to improve their play from last season for MU to have an NCAA appearance in 2016.

My expectations and those I know are pretty muted for next year.  There is always hope and possibilities, but the likely outcome is not too stellar. 
Just look at how many players we have coming back next year from last years team, and that should be enough to dampen expectations. 

I've never looked at Wojo as a guy that will reload in the Spring or just reload from season to season.  More of a team builder and he is selective about who he brings in from a character and team view of things.  Then he wants to develop the talent and build more of a team with continuity.

I hope that he gets to the point here where he can bring in the top 25 guys, like Ellenson, but until then we have to be patient. The good news is that UW has shown that this method can work, although I suspect Wojo will be a better recruiter and no one keeps a team together like UW/Bo, so I don't expect that little player movement.. just less than we are used to.

[MU82]

Chipper this morning, I see.

Yeah, I know I sounded like a jerk. Sorry.

But really, let's be honest about a stat like this. Guy hasn't played a college minute.

[4everwarriors]

Chit, 69+13, the cat's gonna be solid and off to da Association in a season or two, ai na?

[Dawson Rental]

Have we improved more than Creighton this off season?  I think so.  So that moves us up one.  Seton Hall?  Are you kidding me?  The Big East team most likely to implode?  Okay that's two.  My homer's prediction is fourth place in the Big East.

[wadesworld]

Why do we care about Ellenson again?

[Jay Bee]

Still seeing lots of issues with the data... will try to go through Big Ten in some more detail.

For Minnesota -
Reggie Lynch has to sit out a year in residence - should be noted as Minnesota/2017

Also re: Minnesota at first glance....
J. Nwankwo was released from his NLI - will not be with the program
Jordan Murphy should be moved from VCU to Minnesota

[brandx]

Pretty much nailed it last year...
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/08/1st-losing-season-since-1999-possible.html

Along with everyone else - I believe they were picked 9th in pre-season poll.

[bamamarquettefan]

John, how do you calculate that with no college playing time to work from?

Good question - projections coming into a freshman season factor the first year Value Add of players with similar rankings by recruiting services and Draft boards.  If a high school senior has the same ranking as players who on average have a 1.4 Value Add their first year over time, then that is averaged in, and if they are already on mock draft boards we compare them to how similarly situated players performed.

Draft Express picking Ellenson to go 5th in the draft next year bolted his projected value next year since normally lottery picks are very good the year before. That one ranking doesn't immediately shoot up him to the 5th best incoming freshman, but it averages in with his other rankings to increase the projected value add.

[bamamarquettefan]

Still seeing lots of issues with the data... will try to go through Big Ten in some more detail.

For Minnesota -
Reggie Lynch has to sit out a year in residence - should be noted as Minnesota/2017

Also re: Minnesota at first glance....
J. Nwankwo was released from his NLI - will not be with the program
Jordan Murphy should be moved from VCU to Minnesota

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qbx3qDXliihkPNrQfjOIAJzJaX5dYyv8tKh9R4mMqDg/edit#gid=394925277

Thanks, and do keep in mind that I set it up in google docs so anyone can edit. I just made those changes in the doc, and just type something in column F so that the change will register.  I am sorry I did not note your last change - I believe the strand was taken down because of the tables garbling everything and I believe you had a Michigan State catch and something else.  My hope - since I maintain all these myself - is to eventually have more people feeling free to jump in and catch things as a community effort so we create one definitive place for people to go for projected rosters.

[bamamarquettefan]

Along with everyone else - I believe they were picked 9th in pre-season poll.

Thanks for posting that. Yeah, said 6-12, 15-17 last year as your post indicates - and believe if Carlino had not gone down we would have pulled out the two extra conference wins to make it an exact.

[brandx]

Thanks for posting that. Yeah, said 6-12, 15-17 last year as your post indicates - and believe if Carlino had not gone down we would have pulled out the two extra conference wins to make it an exact.

It wasn't meant as a criticism of your work.

I have let you know in the past some of the things I disagree with you on (the value of steals is one that pops to mind), but I believe the biggest value of your system is to those who gamble on college basketball.

[muwarrior69]

It wasn't meant as a criticism of your work.

I have let you know in the past some of the things I disagree with you on (the value of steals is one that pops to mind), but if I believe the biggest value of your system is to those who gamble on college basketball.

Not bad with 5 freshman.

[real chili 83]

Good question - projections coming into a freshman season factor the first year Value Add of players with similar rankings by recruiting services and Draft boards.  If a high school senior has the same ranking as players who on average have a 1.4 Value Add their first year over time, then that is averaged in, and if they are already on mock draft boards we compare them to how similarly situated players performed.

Draft Express picking Ellenson to go 5th in the draft next year bolted his projected value next year since normally lottery picks are very good the year before. That one ranking doesn't immediately shoot up him to the 5th best incoming freshman, but it averages in with his other rankings to increase the projected value add.

Thanks John.

How many years of data do you have to validate freshmen predictions?

[bilsu]

Pretty much nailed it last year...
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/08/1st-losing-season-since-1999-possible.html

So a 6th place finish this year?  How does the board feel about that?  MU would need a soft bubble...if no NCAA again, my guess the board would be trending down on Wojo as I sense the fan base is expecting more.

Realistically, with all the newcomers, off season surgeries, a sixth place finish would seem reasonable to me.

How do I feel? 6th place talent with our coaching staff= 7th place finish.

[BCHoopster]

How do I feel? 6th place talent with our coaching staff= 7th place finish.

Talent is young, returnees have a lot to prove, no physical rebounder, lots of finesse players, means about 6th or 7th.  One of the small forwards has to take a big leap to really be better next
year, who will that be?

[MuMark]

How do I feel? 6th place talent with our coaching staff= 7th place finish.

but you also predicted Hauser to Creighton so there is that......
bilsu
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Re: Sam Hauser
« Reply #134 on: April 25, 2015, 12:07:27 AM »
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I loved Sam's game the first time I saw him play. He struck me as a Bo Ryan type recruit and I think Bo is making a big mistake not recruiting him. Now, that Creighton is in top 3 I expect him to go there. Sam fits well in  their three point shooting style. Sam not choosing MU, when we were easily the best offer out there tells me he is not sold on us. It is the opposite of Canisus(sp). I think we have a better shot at him, since he has not jumped on Michigan St.'s offer.

[Windyplayer]

but you also predicted Hauser to Creighton so there is that......
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Re: Sam Hauser
« Reply #134 on: April 25, 2015, 12:07:27 AM »
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I loved Sam's game the first time I saw him play. He struck me as a Bo Ryan type recruit and I think Bo is making a big mistake not recruiting him. Now, that Creighton is in top 3 I expect him to go there. Sam fits well in  their three point shooting style. Sam not choosing MU, when we were easily the best offer out there tells me he is not sold on us. It is the opposite of Canisus(sp). I think we have a better shot at him, since he has not jumped on Michigan St.'s offer.

Bilsu is a professional Debbie Downer. Take it with a grain of salt.

[bilsu]

Bilsu is a professional Debbie Downer. Take it with a grain of salt.

Actually I am not a Debbie Downer, but I am a contrarian. People rip Derrick, so I defend him. If people get overly excited about a certain player and I will take the other side. Wojo cut his teeth coaching players with great talent. I believe you coach talented players differently than you coach lesser talented players. Bo Ryan is a coach who excels at coaching three star players. I do not think he would be as a good coach coaching five star players. Wojo is the opposite. He probably knows how to coach a team full of McDonald All-Americans. He still needs to learn how to win with less talented players. He may learn to do that, but as of now he is a work in progress.