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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks]Lee & Miller Would Improve MU from 72nd to 14th Best in Country  (Read 9664 times)

CrackedSidewalksSays

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Lee & Miller Would Improve MU from 72nd to 14th Best in Country

Source: Lee & Miller Would Improve MU from 72nd to 14th Best in Country
« Last Edit: April 15, 2015, 07:51:14 AM by mu_hilltopper »

Chicago_inferiority_complexes

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Say again?

TAMU Eagle

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Why does Traci Carter have zero value add?
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

brewcity77

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Why does Traci Carter have zero value add?

I'm sure it's because he's a freshman who isn't rated very highly by recruiting services.

If he adds zero value next year, we will be in a lot of trouble, no matter who we add at the wings.

bamamarquettefan

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It is a purely mathematical rating, and he is rated below where a freshman usually adds value. It sounds to me like Wojo has a winner in him, and the system is purely mathematical so it does not adjust for the fact that we need a point guard to pass the ball to Wilson if he is going to have the ten 30 points games I am expecting.

I know people were surprised when the projections last year showed Carlino should definitely be the best player on the team, or the year before when it showed Jameel McKay would be our best player until he decided not to play.

But they are just averages - and most recruits have very low value if any and then the good ones explode their sophomore year. And remember, 0.00 means just as good as a player off the bench - so he is adding value - just not MORE value that your typical bench player would add.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

jsglow

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It is a purely mathematical rating, and he is rated below where a freshman usually adds value. It sounds to me like Wojo has a winner in him, and the system is purely mathematical so it does not adjust for the fact that we need a point guard to pass the ball to Wilson if he is going to have the ten 30 points games I am expecting.

I know people were surprised when the projections last year showed Carlino should definitely be the best player on the team, or the year before when it showed Jameel McKay would be our best player until he decided not to play.

But they are just averages - and most recruits have very low value if any and then the good ones explode their sophomore year. And remember, 0.00 means just as good as a player off the bench - so he is adding value - just not MORE value that your typical bench player would add.

So bama, does the model then measure deviation from the expected contribution number after the fact?  Will Traci have an actual measurement next year that gets compared to the predictive?  And is that actual number then the basis for his Sophomore predictive?

PGsHeroes32

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Yeah we would be crazy good with them.

Is there any chance of that happening though? By that I mean would we take both of by some miracle both of those highly sought guys chose us?

I assume it isn't an either or considerig they play different positions mostly. But it would create a bit of a log jam.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

brandx

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It is a purely mathematical rating, and he is rated below where a freshman usually adds value. It sounds to me like Wojo has a winner in him, and the system is purely mathematical so it does not adjust for the fact that we need a point guard to pass the ball to Wilson if he is going to have the ten 30 points games I am expecting.



The leading scorer in the country this past year had 5 games of 30 or more.

TAMU Eagle

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It is a purely mathematical rating, and he is rated below where a freshman usually adds value. It sounds to me like Wojo has a winner in him, and the system is purely mathematical so it does not adjust for the fact that we need a point guard to pass the ball to Wilson if he is going to have the ten 30 points games I am expecting.

I know people were surprised when the projections last year showed Carlino should definitely be the best player on the team, or the year before when it showed Jameel McKay would be our best player until he decided not to play.

But they are just averages - and most recruits have very low value if any and then the good ones explode their sophomore year. And remember, 0.00 means just as good as a player off the bench - so he is adding value - just not MORE value that your typical bench player would add.

But Anim has a value add of 1.00 and I don't see a single recruiting service that has him higher than Carter. Just curious. I do appropriate work, it is fantastic as always!
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Tugg Speedman

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The leading scorer in the country this past year had 5 games of 30 or more.

Reminds me of those that confidently predicted that Luke was going to be a "20 and 10 guy" after the Alabama A&M game.

If Luke actually did this, he would have beaten out Kaminsky for NPOY and would be declaring early for the draft.

But what is surprising is BAMA should know better than top expect Duane Wilson to throw up 10 30+ games next year.  Again, if that happens, he will be NPOY, come out early and MU will be in the FF.

brandx

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Reminds me of those that confidently predicted that Luke was going to be a "20 and 10 guy" after the Alabama A&M game.

If Luke actually did this, he would have beaten out Kaminsky for NPOY and would be declaring early for the draft.

But what is surprising is BAMA should know better than top expect Duane Wilson to throw up 10 30+ games next year.  Again, if that happens, he will be NPOY, come out early and MU will be in the FF.


We see the same thing with Henry as far as unrealistic expectations.

I am hoping for 12/5 which is probably too high. But... If he does go 12/5, I think we are in the Dance.

bamamarquettefan

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But what is surprising is BAMA should know better than top expect Duane Wilson to throw up 10 30+ games next year.  Again, if that happens, he will be NPOY, come out early and MU will be in the FF.

Sorry, I guess an analytics guy like me should be careful to put a playful quote like that in teal. For the record I certainly never really believed there was any chance he will have anywhere near 10 games of 30 points or better.

On the question of a 1.0 vs. a 0.0 on the freshman ratings I will go back and check. I purposely try to run the whole program without focusing on MArquette players until i am actually dumping into a table - so I will go back and check.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

bamamarquettefan

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We see the same thing with Henry as far as unrealistic expectations.

I am hoping for 12/5 which is probably too high. But... If he does go 12/5, I think we are in the Dance.
I am very wary of freshman expectations because people focus on the long-term skill set and ignore the fact that they are often turning the ball over and clueless as juniors and seniors easily get to the rim (e.g. ridiculous claim for most of the year that Okafor was favored over Kaminsky for POY despite a lot more turnovers than most point guards, giving up 62 points to UNC in the pain - their most in 2 decades - being taken out of key games late to avoid the 51% free throw shooting etc.).

Now with my diatribe behind me, I do have to say Henry is more like the modern center (Kaminsky) and has a much higher ceiling than Fischer had. Fischer is a great traditional center who can also run straight down the court, but he can't hit the three or fake the three and dribble all the way to the hoop from the arc. It could be that 12/5 is all we can hope for as a freshman from Henry, but I am quite confident he has a much higher ceiling his sophomore year just watching a little video on him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQCuS_R3yO4
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

Skatastrophy

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Providence fans are asking why Kris Dunn isn't on the list for them.

TAMU Eagle

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Providence fans are asking why Kris Dunn isn't on the list for them.

I thought it was odd that Providence was 9th!
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Skatastrophy

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GTown is also missing D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, who has committed to returning.

Edit: BTW, I'm just parroting back responses from the Big East subreddit.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2015, 11:17:17 AM by Skatastrophy »

BLM

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Sorry, I guess an analytics guy like me should be careful to put a playful quote like that in teal. For the record I certainly never really believed there was any chance he will have anywhere near 10 games of 30 points or better.

On the question of a 1.0 vs. a 0.0 on the freshman ratings I will go back and check. I purposely try to run the whole program without focusing on MArquette players until i am actually dumping into a table - so I will go back and check.

Don't worry, your sarcasm did not go completely unnoticed/misread.
Black Lives Matter

4everDawson

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Why does Traci Carter have zero value add?

Because he plays point guard and Marquette doesn't use those.
You actually have a degree from Marquette?

Quote from: muguru
No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

4everDawson

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Providence fans are asking why Kris Dunn isn't on the list for them.

Can they not spell N-B-A?
You actually have a degree from Marquette?

Quote from: muguru
No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

bilsu

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Why does Traci Carter have zero value add?
Maybe we should not expect so much from a "160 lb" freshmen.

BLM

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Maybe we should not expect so much from a "160 lb" freshmen.

Those guys always suck!

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/3135046/tyus-jones

(There is no way Tyus Jones is 30 lbs heavier than Traci Carter)
Black Lives Matter

barfolomew

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But Anim has a value add of 1.00 and I don't see a single recruiting service that has him higher than Carter. Just curious. I do appropriate work, it is fantastic as always!

That will be up to your supervisors come annual review time.
I, myself, would mark you down for screwing around on the internet all day. But that's just me.   ;)

Numen Flamenco

4everDawson

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With the opportunities opened up by Stainbrook's graduation there is no way that Sean O'Mara of Xavier will be as low as 0.20.
You actually have a degree from Marquette?

Quote from: muguru
No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

bamamarquettefan

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GTown is also missing D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, who has committed to returning.
Edit: BTW, I'm just parroting back responses from the Big East subreddit.

Yes, we are working through a programming glitch and once fixed, these will be dumped into www.valueaddbasketbal.com and keep being updated real-time. We flagged players after D'Vauntes said he was going NBA (temporarily) and as of yesterday I believe Dunn was still unsure in SI yesterday. Having them both back next year would be a huge boost to the conference, as they would project as the 5th and 6th players in the country and add almost 10 points respectively to both teams. That makes Georgetown 3rd, Providence 5th and pushes MU to 6th.

Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4   9.68
Dunn, Kris 3   9.6

Once the programming glitch is fixed you can pull up any player like this and if he has an "NBA" as his team, you know he isn't in the team calculation.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).