[Cracked Sidewalks]Which missing MU Player Could Have Made Us 6-0?

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Which missing MU Player Could Have Made Us 6-0?

The combination of a narrow bench and four road losses by six points or less made we wonder which “almost” Marquette player could have given the team just enough help to be 6-0 in the Big East heading into the showdown with Georgetown.

Luckily www.valueaddbasketball.com, which was the subject of my interview with Fox Sports yesterday, gives a measurement of how many points each player would improve a team. With only eight scholarship players â€" and seven for the Xavier game with JJJ not practicing hard - here is the countdown of the players that ended up NOT being at Marquette from worst to best:

1.       Neither player that left with Buzz would have given MU another win

Satchel Pierce (0.49 Value Add) and Ahmed Hill (0.24) are worth less than one point per game to Virginia Tech, so even the presence of both players on MUs roster still leaves us 2-4 in the Big East.

2.       Surprisingly, we are probably still 2-4 with Jameel McKay.

I projected McKay as our best player last year, and was heartbroken when he transferred to Iowa State. His immediate impact swatting shots and hitting 60% of his field goals had Marquette fans wondering what a difference he would have made. I was surprised to see that his Value Add only calculated to 1.17, and even doubling to 2.34 to account for him becoming eligible halfway through, his presents would not calculate to change any of MU’s Big East results â€" leaving us 2-4 with him.

When I looked closer, I realized his average Big 12 performance is a 3-5 game from the floor (no three-point attempts) and 3-5 from the line, with an impressive 3 blocked shots, 5 rebounds, 0 assists and 2 turnovers. A solid player so far, but it is easier to keep the shooting percentage high when you only take the easiest of shots, so McKay has not been a game changer.

3.       UVa’s Marial Shayok would likely have MU 3-3

There is some satisfaction in the fact that the player that left for Buzz’s rival, UVa, has been much better than the two that actually followed Buzz. Marial Shayok has hit 45% of his 3-pointers and has an excellent steal ratio for a 2.67 Value Add. If he was there to give the team one more body, that means you are basically looking at a tie game with DePaul (58-61 loss) and St. John’s (57-60 loss) so figure MU wins one of the two with Shayok. We still fall one point short on Xavier, and three points short on Georgetown.

4.       MU could be 6-0 with DJ Newbill

Which leads us to the nation’s fifth leading scorer DJ Newbill, who Buzz let go to open a spot for Jamil Wilson (understandable), keeping Jamail Jones (ouch). Yes, it could be that Newbill’s eligibility could have run out last year as he is playing this year because of a transfer from Southern Miss to Penn State.

But if he were to be the one addition to MU’s team this year, his 6.09 Value Add calculates to give MU wins over DePaul, St. John’s, Xavier (58-62) and a dead even game with Georgetown (59-65). Jamail Jones looked like the much better prospect out of high school, but this year he is still at a 0.91 Value Add.

With Marquette boasting the No. 1 defense in the Big East according to www.kenpom.com, but the last ranked offense, the team could literally be 6-0 if Newbill had come and was still playing due to a redshirt year along the way, or even coming back after the year at Southern Miss when we had a spot.

He is nationally ranked at www.kenpom.com in shooting, assists and getting to the line as he competes for the national scoring title with a 21.9 point per game average. Further, he is being wasted at Penn State where the team started 12-1 but has since gone 0-6 in the Big Ten.

His 29 points on 11 of 18 shooting against Wisconsin was not enough for Penn State but certainly looks like it might have been enough for MU â€" so how would 6-0 in Big East with a win over Wisconsin look?

His last two games including 37 points against Purdue and 27 against Michigan State in two more losses.

I am thrilled with how competitive the team has been, but if there was one more guy we could give them for help, Newbill would be very nice. That's my only spilled milk comment for this season.

Source: Which missing MU Player Could Have Made Us 6-0?

[Henry Sugar]

Which missing MU Player Could Have Made Us 6-0?

4.       MU could be 6-0 with DJ Newbill

[NersEllenson]

Any analysis on what Deonte Burton would have been projected to add?

[WarhawkWarrior]

McKay. 

[bilsu]

Newbill would have been gone, unless he redshirted. Given's last year's ability to be a clutch player at the end of regulation the player that would of helped is Mayo.

[MUfan12]

Any analysis on what Deonte Burton would have been projected to add?

Roughly eleventy hundred points per 40 minutes.

[bamamarquettefan]

Newbill would have been gone, unless he redshirted. Given's last year's ability to be a clutch player at the end of regulation the player that would of helped is Mayo.

Yes, did note that in the piece that it only could have happened if there had been a redshirt year along the way. Heck, I would have loved to have him last year too!

[bamamarquettefan]

Any analysis on what Deonte Burton would have been projected to add?

He was worth 1.66 points last year, but unlike most sophomores had not improved. He is at 0.74 per mu game played this year, so was about twice that when he left.

[bamamarquettefan]

Given's last year's ability to be a clutch player at the end of regulation the player that would of helped is Mayo.

Yeah, as little as he played he was still worth 1.82 - and that doesnt factor WHEN he hit the shots. Now OJ was one of th greats - recorded a 7.54 in 2008, so he could have definitely made us 6-0!

[GooooMarquette]

Roughly eleventy hundred points per 40 minutes.

Source?

[chapman]

A little evidence to support my thought that Shayok was a bigger more unfortunate loss than Hill, Pierce, and (at least considering eligibility timeframe) McKay.  UVA fans love his defense.

[MerrittsMustache]

MU would be 4-2 with Jamal Ferguson. He's averaging 4 points per game, which would have given MU wins over DePaul and St. John's! Throw in Jamail Jones' 11 ppg and MU is unbeaten on the season!

Alas, what might have been...

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I had heard that Wojo wanted to keep Shayok more than any of the other recruits. Didn't see it at the time but it looks like Wojo knows!

We definitely missed on a stud when we let Newbill go. Couldn't have possibly seen it at the time, but he might have been able to save last year's season.

[mu-rara]

mental masturbation

[#UnleashSean]

I had heard that Wojo wanted to keep Shayok more than any of the other recruits. Didn't see it at the time but it looks like Wojo knows!

We definitely missed on a stud when we let Newbill go. Couldn't have possibly seen it at the time, but he might have been able to save last year's season.

Maybe Newbill would have been terrible coming to Marquette. He might not have the fire to show everyone up that he has now.

[willie warrior]

Maybe Newbill would have been terrible coming to Marquette. He might not have the fire to show everyone up that he has now.

The only person he has shown up is the phony cowboy. Another shining example of the Buzzster's personnel move.

[tower912]

Newbill wouldn't be here.  He might have helped save last season.   So, Shayok is the biggest loss.   

[frozena pizza]

Maybe Newbill would have been terrible coming to Marquette. He might not have the fire to show everyone up that he has now.

Of course.  That's why these analyses projecting a player's impact on a different team have limited value.  In a sport like baseball that is a series of isolated events, individual performance transfers into a different situation fairly well.  In a more free flowing game like basketball where a given player's contribution is highly dependent on other variables such as teammates, coaching and opposing matchups, you can't accurately quantify that player's contribution in another setting (not to mention the impact that player has on other players' contributions).  It is interesting (painful?) to think about what might have been if we'd had Newbill or kept Shayok, but it is very difficult to quantify their impact in specific situations.

[Dawson Rental]

I had heard that Wojo wanted to keep Shayok more than any of the other recruits. Didn't see it at the time but it looks like Wojo knows!

We definitely missed on a stud when we let Newbill go. Couldn't have possibly seen it at the time, but he might have been able to save last year's season.

Of course, when you add Newbill's contributions in, you must also subtract out Jamil Wilson's contributions since Newbill was dropped to get a scholarship to offer Jamil when he decided to transfer.

[Dawson Rental]

MU would be 4-2 with Jamal Ferguson. He's averaging 4 points per game, which would have given MU wins over DePaul and St. John's! Throw in Jamail Jones' 11 ppg and MU is unbeaten on the season!

Alas, what might have been...

Your post is an excellent example of the value of using value added figures which, I suspect, was your real motive.

[Dr. Blackheart]

What about the Toddler?

[VegasWarrior77]

It's hard to believe your important statistics when you can't even format your post properly.

[MU82]

4.       MU could be 6-0 with DJ Newbill

We also could be 6-0 with Dwyane Wade, but unfortunately, like Newbill, he had no eligibility remaining for this season.

[Lennys Tap]

mental masturbation

No happy ending

[bamamarquettefan]

MU would be 4-2 with Jamal Ferguson. He's averaging 4 points per game, which would have given MU wins over DePaul and St. John's! Throw in Jamail Jones' 11 ppg and MU is unbeaten on the season!

Alas, what might have been...

I know you are kidding, but the EXACT reason Value Add was invented - this insane perception that a player IMPROVES a team as much as he scores - even while he is taking points away by missed shots, turnovers, allowing opponents to score etc.

As stated above, Jones is worth a tiny 0.91 points per game. Ferguson is worth even less -  0.47. Neither would add a single win to Marquette even by giving us one extra body on a short bench.