Predicted Wins for MU (1-22-15 status)

[Henry Sugar]

The most likely view (~40%) as of today is that MU finishes with 14 wins (6-12 in conference). Second most likely is that MU finishes with 15 wins.

Pessimists will say that MU has a 58% of finishing with 14 wins or less. Optimists will say that mubb has 42% chance of 15 wins or more.

Before anyone says it, yes, they still have to play the games. This is just a snapshot in time.

[Coleman]

yuck

[Lennys Tap]

I guessed 7-11 in the original Big East record poll so I (sadly) think this is just about right.

[barfolomew]

Your chart is giving us all the finger.
Scoop knows when it has been disrespected!

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

If I'm being an optimist, I'll say that adding Luke 1/2 way through these season should make them better than their current projection, so I think they will hit 15 wins.

With this said, with only 8 guys, they are 1 injury away from being really shorthanded.

[MU82]

What are we, 9-6? So with 15 games left, that brings us to 24-6. Add 3 more for the BE title and 6 more for the national championship and 33-6 sounds just about right.

Maybe 32-7 with a loss at Nova, just to not be accused of being unrealistic.

[slack00]

Your chart is giving us all the finger.
Scoop knows when it has been disrespected!

Unfortunately it doesn't know when it's being trolled.

[tower912]

I had 11-14 wins in the preseason poll.   The team has really played well and been more competitive that I foresaw, but they still have to beat good teams. 

[Henry Sugar]

A few additional comments.

• Despite the current poor predictions, I have MU as tracking consistently better than last year.
• MU has really been playing like a #85 ranked team (around their Pomeroy rankings). By the same measure, last year they played like a #145 ranked team. I disagree with Pomeroy's rankings for last year.
• In a vacuum, MU should win somewhere around 20-21 games for the season
• Unfortunately, conference play isn't a vacuum. The rest of the conference is just really solid. As of today, MU is an underdog in every game except vs Creighton and DPU.

In other words, there are plenty of positives and MU is playing better, it's just that the competition is harder.

[bilsu]

All I know is my predicted wins will take a severe hit, if we lose to Creighton on Wednesday.

[MarquetteDano]

I still say we go 9-9.  Overall record 17-13 prior to BET. I think we go 7-2 at home and pull off two upset away wins.

Not enough for the tourney but NIT material for sure.

[Texas Western]

I still say we go 9-9.  Overall record 17-13 prior to BET. I think we go 7-2 at home and pull off two upset away wins.

Not enough for the tourney but NIT material for sure.

This is what I have been thinking for a while. I think may be able to go 1-1 in the tournament.

[Henry Sugar]

1-22.15 version

The most likely scenario is still 14-16, although now the second most likely is 13-17.



Again, just a snapshot in time.

Optimist view - 35% of winning 15 games or more
Pessimist view - 65% of finishing under 0.500

[bilsu]

I am expecting 7-2 at home and 0-9 on the road, which gets us to 15-15.

[GooooMarquette]

I am expecting 7-2 at home and 0-9 on the road, which gets us to 15-15.

I'm thinking 7-2 and 1-8.  No idea who we beat on the road, except it'll be when Carlino and any one of our other players have a good game on the same night.

[MarquetteDano]

I'm thinking 7-2 and 1-8.  No idea who we beat on the road, except it'll be when Carlino and any one of our other players have a good game on the same night.

I originally had us at 9-9, but your scenario above seems most likely to me, 8-10.  NCAA hopes gone unless we win the BET.  Even worse with that losing conf record, unless we win a couple of games in the BET, NIT invite would not be coming either.

[MUMonster03]

The only way this team is making it to the NCAA tournament is if we win out at home and steal at least 2 road games, 1 of which needs to be Nova or Seton Hall, since we have allowed all the easy road wins slip through our fingers. Also, at this point a road loss at Creighton would probably put us in a position to have to win the Big East tournament.

If we can go 8-1 at home and steal any road win to get us to 9-9 overall I think we go to the NIT. Below .500 conference record and we are watching everyone else play post season basketball like last year.

[brewcity77]

The only way this team is making it to the NCAA tournament is if we win out at home and steal at least 2 road games, 1 of which needs to be Nova or Seton Hall, since we have allowed all the easy road wins slip through our fingers. Also, at this point a road loss at Creighton would probably put us in a position to have to win the Big East tournament.

If we can go 8-1 at home and steal any road win to get us to 9-9 overall I think we go to the NIT. Below .500 conference record and we are watching everyone else play post season basketball like last year.

Actually, it really doesn't matter which we win on the road. If we win any two on the road, get to 10-8, we'll definitely be squarely on the bubble. Win 1-2 at MSG and we'd be in for sure. Like last year, I feel confident the magic number is 11 combined wins between conference and MSG. 11-7 gets us in, 10-8 + 1 at MSG gets us in, 9-9 + 2 at MSG (BET title game) gets us in, anything less than 8 and we need all three at the Garden.

[Texas Western]

I am still at 7-2 home, 2-7 road, 1-1 tournament. I have great confidence that JJJ,Duane and Luke are going to improve on their recent performance.

[HutchwasClutch]

I am still at 7-2 home, 2-7 road, 1-1 tournament. I have great confidence that JJJ,Duane and Luke are going to improve on their recent performance.

All you have is praise for JJJ, and ridicule for Carlino.  What kind of a parallel universe are you living in exactly?  Is your whole world upside down?  

[Texas Western]

All you have is praise for JJJ, and ridicule for Carlino.  What kind of a parallel universe are you living in excatly?  Is your whole world upside down? 

No ridicule for Carlino. Have said our teams performance is directly tied to his. He has performed exactly to expectations and past record. He is a chucker but he does get hot from time to time.  Our problem is we need another player to step up and complement him as a scorer hence my desire to see the three I listed JJJ, Duane and Luke step up and fill the void . I simply have a different view of JJJ's talent than you do. My hope is the coaches will extract the talent in a meaningful way.

[willie warrior]

The most likely view (~40%) as of today is that MU finishes with 14 wins (6-12 in conference). Second most likely is that MU finishes with 15 wins.

Pessimists will say that MU has a 58% of finishing with 14 wins or less. Optimists will say that mubb has 42% chance of 15 wins or more.

Before anyone says it, yes, they still have to play the games. This is just a snapshot in time.

I will try to be optimistic here and take the over with 16 wins.