Team Bubble Watch IS BACK, yo!

[Benny B]

Marquette is firmly on the bubble at 55 in the RPI following the win over ASU last night.


Although, I do recall someone saying that RPI is meaningless this early in the season.

Four years ago we had a great team.  Beat UCONN, Pitt, GTown, finished 4th in the BE, and never cracked the top 25. Rankings are meaningless, just fun to look at. RPI is the only metric that matters, but not until March.  Enjoy the ride... it may not be as bumpy as many think. 

I like that part about enjoying the ride, however.

[Coleman]

Marquette is firmly on the bubble at 55 in the RPI following the win over ASU last night.


Although, I do recall someone saying that RPI is meaningless this early in the season.

I like that part about enjoying the ride, however.

[mikekinsellaMVP]

Just jumped over to check it out.  Our current SOS is #6 in the country.  Only high major ahead of us is Kansas at #4.

[LAZER]

Just jumped over to check it out.  Our current SOS is #6 in the country.  Only high major ahead of us is Kansas at #4.

I imagine these next 3 games will put a significant dent in the SOS.

[cheebs09]

One thing to remember. If Luke turns out to be our best player this year or a strong contributor (all signs pointing to yes on the latter at least), the committee will view our non-conference much differently. UNO doesn't have that many layups if Luke is in there.

So, even if our RPI is on a low end of the tournament, we may get a benefit of the doubt from the committee if we look strong in conference.

[esotericmindguy]

One thing to remember. If Luke turns out to be our best player this year or a strong contributor (all signs pointing to yes on the latter at least), the committee will view our non-conference much differently. UNO doesn't have that many layups if Luke is in there.

So, even if our RPI is on a low end of the tournament, we may get a benefit of the doubt from the committee if we look strong in conference.

Yes. Totally agree. But I still think they'll struggle in conference play, hopefully I'm wrong. ASU is pretty bad, many unforced turnovers.

[Benny B]

One thing to remember. If Luke turns out to be our best player this year or a strong contributor (all signs pointing to yes on the latter at least), the committee will view our non-conference much differently. UNO doesn't have that many layups if Luke is in there.

So, even if our RPI is on a low end of the tournament, we may get a benefit of the doubt from the committee if we look strong in conference.

Bingo.

I had mentioned something to this effect after Moo-U.  In the one-game ASU sample, Luke was clearly a difference maker; provided last night was not an anomaly, if Marquette is anywhere near the conversation, at worst, the committee will give much greater weight & consideration to the games in which Luke was eligible than everything prior to ASU.

Granted, it's not as simple as an A + B = C equation, but the best case scenario is that the committee looks at the three 11-point losses against the Big Ten (crazy... I just realized we lost to each of OSU, MSU and UW by exactly 11) and considers the possibility that Luke might have made a difference in those games given his half-season performance.

There's enough precedent out there for the committee to give wide deference to a team whose roster is materially different on Selection Sunday than it was a week, month or half a season prior.  Of course, this is assuming that Luke continues to have a major impact on MU's remaining schedule.  If Luke regresses to his IU averages over the next two months, it makes no difference... the more of an impact a player makes on his team's performance, the more (and favorable) the consideration the committee will give*.  In fact, I would go so far as to say that if Luke ended up as Big East POY (relax, people... it's a hypothetical) and MU finished in the top 4 of the BE, they'd be a rock-solid lock for the dance.

* No, I don't think that the transfers of Burton and Dawson will mitigate any positive effect Luke may have in committee conversation one iota.

[mattyv1908]

Bingo.

I had mentioned something to this effect after Moo-U.  In the one-game ASU sample, Luke was clearly a difference maker; provided last night was not an anomaly, if Marquette is anywhere near the conversation, at worst, the committee will give much greater weight & consideration to the games in which Luke was eligible than everything prior to ASU.

Granted, it's not as simple as an A + B = C equation, but the best case scenario is that the committee looks at the three 11-point losses against the Big Ten (crazy... I just realized we lost to each of OSU, MSU and UW by exactly 11) and considers the possibility that Luke might have made a difference in those games given his half-season performance.

There's enough precedent out there for the committee to give wide deference to a team whose roster is materially different on Selection Sunday than it was a week, month or half a season prior.  Of course, this is assuming that Luke continues to have a major impact on MU's remaining schedule.  If Luke regresses to his IU averages over the next two months, it makes no difference... the more of an impact a player makes on his team's performance, the more (and favorable) the consideration the committee will give*.  In fact, I would go so far as to say that if Luke ended up as Big East POY (relax, people... it's a hypothetical) and MU finished in the top 4 of the BE, they'd be a rock-solid lock for the dance.

* No, I don't think that the transfers of Burton and Dawson will mitigate any positive effect Luke may have in committee conversation one iota.

You are right, just like the committee knocked our seeding down a couple spots following the Dominique James injury his senior season.  We simply were not the same team with out him (I know he suited up for the NCAAT while hurt) and the committee recognized that.

I don't think it's the proper evaluation method as I think your body of work is your body of work but it benefits us in this situation.

[BM1090]

I posted this is another thread last week but after the ASU win it's more relevant. Assuming we go the next three games without any slip ups, and can find a way to go 11-7 in conference, our resume will be 19-11 with a RPI in the upper 30s. That would get MU in the dance.

[PGsHeroes32]

I posted this is another thread last week but after the ASU win it's more relevant. Assuming we go the next three games without any slip ups, and can find a way to go 11-7 in conference, our resume will be 19-11 with a RPI in the upper 30s. That would get MU in the dance.

Yeah I said it last year and I will say it again this year. They are not leaving an 11-7 high major(yes this is what we are) conference team out of the big dance. It just aint happening. Can we go 11-7? Who knows. But if we did, we are in. Unless we collapse here in non conference lol.

The fact that the BE is actually getting recognition this year makes it even better.

[humanlung]

If only we could fit the Ron Paul gif in here...

[San Diego Warrior]

I'm very optimistic with this team's chances to make the tournament after seeing the impact Fisher had on the game.  This team looked much better on both ends of the court.  I think the biggest hurdle of this team will be surviving the season with only 8 players on the roster - an injury could be devastating.

[brandx]

Marquette is firmly on the bubble at 55 in the RPI following the win over ASU last night.


Although, I do recall someone saying that RPI is meaningless this early in the season.

Might have been me   --  if not, I'll say it now.

But it is really great that I think we can be there all season. Last year at this time, I had given up any hope of going to the dance. I'm sure I could search and find numerous statements I made in threads about the bubble - where I said we weren't on it when others said we were.

If we stay away from injuries, this is going to be a fun team to watch and my guess is that we are about 50/50 to sneak in.

Last year, I was less optimistic than most here - this year I am more optimistic than most.

[Jay Bee]

RPI... currently #60 at .5841
Current AWP is .4634.
With wins in the next 3... .5600.
That helps MU's RPI by .0242.

However,... far more than offsetting it......
Opp's winning percentage would cost MU almost .0670 if we had played those next 3 already.

So.. we're talking a negative net of more than .0400... just on the two most significant components of RPI... even if MU comes out and wins all three by 50 points each.

Currently that would put MU down around #110 instead of #60.

Things will tighten up over the next 2 weeks... but, you will not see MU near their current #60 RPI when the conference season begins. ~100? OK. That's within reach.

[Jay Bee]

RPI... currently #60 at .5841
Current AWP is .4634.
With wins in the next 3... .5600.
That helps MU's RPI by .0242.

However,... far more than offsetting it......
Opp's winning percentage would cost MU almost .0670 if we had played those next 3 already.

So.. we're talking a negative net of more than .0400... just on the two most significant components of RPI... even if MU comes out and wins all three by 50 points each.

Currently that would put MU down around #110 instead of #60.

Things will tighten up over the next 2 weeks... but, you will not see MU near their current #60 RPI when the conference season begins. ~100? OK. That's within reach.

MU's RPI worsens by about 10 spots to ~107 with today's win. We'll see how the next few days shake out... but again... ~100 is within reach. Not much betta, though.

[brewcity77]

Not at all worried about RPI. Win 10 and we'll be in the 40s and well in the mix. Makes very little difference at this point who we beat. Just get to double digit league wins and we'll be in good shape.

[4everwarriors]

If only we could fit the Ron Paul gif in here...

Why would ya want Ron Paul's mug in a silicone implant, hey?

[Jay Bee]

Not at all worried about RPI. Win 10 and we'll be in the 40s and well in the mix. Makes very little difference at this point who we beat. Just get to double digit league wins and we'll be in good shape.

I think 10-8 + 1 in BET and you're feeling pretty good. 10-8 and a "bad" loss... squirmy+++++

[brewcity77]

I think 10-8 + 1 in BET and you're feeling pretty good. 10-8 and a "bad" loss... squirmy+++++

Agreed. I think the magic number is 11 total wins. 11-7 in league and we're in. 10-8 + 1 BET would also do the job, and we'd have a pretty good shot with 9-9 and 2 BET wins. Anything less than that and we'll need the auto bid.

DePaul is the only team that can really throw a monkeywrench, and that will be sorted out in 3 days. Win that game and I think we're safe. Creighton could make the technical "bad loss" category of being a sub-100 team, but they won't be DePaul bad, and as long as you beat them at home, no one else in the league will really raise any question marks.

Also crossing my fingers that Omaha can get to 18 wins. It would likely ensure they are a top-150 RPI team, and that loss would look a lot less egregious to the committee if it was against a top-150 team without our only big man.

[Jay Bee]

Agreed. I think the magic number is 11 total wins. 11-7 in league and we're in. 10-8 + 1 BET would also do the job, and we'd have a pretty good shot with 9-9 and 2 BET wins. Anything less than that and we'll need the auto bid.

DePaul is the only team that can really throw a monkeywrench, and that will be sorted out in 3 days. Win that game and I think we're safe. Creighton could make the technical "bad loss" category of being a sub-100 team, but they won't be DePaul bad, and as long as you beat them at home, no one else in the league will really raise any question marks.

Also crossing my fingers that Omaha can get to 18 wins. It would likely ensure they are a top-150 RPI team, and that loss would look a lot less egregious to the committee if it was against a top-150 team without our only big man.

Agree on most; two things --

Omaha - will only have 28 'real' games pre-conference tourney. 18-10 may or may not get them into the top 150 RPI.. but, the team sheet's breakdown is 101-200, so it gets lumped there.. optics only, still a bad loss.

But... I think the Luke addition helps a ton if MU gets 11 in conference in any fashion...

DePaul game is extremely important for being the first conf game of the season...