What to make from these first two games

[mattyv1908]

First off, all the optimism on this board after the UTM game shouldn't be completely abandoned en masse like many have chosen following last night's loss.  That said, tOSU shouldn't be ranked in my opinion and it seemed like we turned a winnable game into a second half snooze fest.  Here's my take on the loss.

1.  Compared to anyone who played last night, Devante Gardner was a defensive guru.  I often argued that much of his defensive deficiency was imagined by many on this forum, but I think watching the mediocre buckeye post players make mediocre moves around our defenders for wide open buckets shows a whole new level of defensive ineptitude.  It's really the sole reason for last night's loss.  Even an average defensive effort results in a game decided by the final possessions.

2.  Buzz Williams should watch this game to figure out how to run an offense against the 2-3 zone.  Coach Wojo I felt used a very effective coaching decision to consistently find easy baskets all game long.  It's too bad a few were missed that should never have been.  A minor tweak (which will lead to point 3) I would have liked to see employed was getting Burton the ball at the high post/free throw line in the middle of the zone.  For as effective as we were at getting the ball to the block, there was very little effort to exploit the zone from the free throw line and Burton is the type of player who could do it most effectively on our current roster.

3.  Deonte Burton shows why he's not starting with his bafflingly poor play.  He was inconsistent, made poor shot selections, and was trying to play faster than necessary resulting in silly turnovers.  He probably has the most talent on the team but needs to find his rhythm or he won't capitalize on his ability.

4.  When Cohen looks more composed than Anderson against quality NCAA competition it poses as a problem for this team all season.

5.  I thought Wojo made great usage out of his timeouts that prevented the collapse as long as possible.  Every time the game got to within 9-13 he called a TO and it seemed the team responded to get the lead back to a manageable deficit.  It's too bad that emphasis was never able to be sustained as it appeared that when Marquette would cut the lead to around 7 then the same defensive laziness/poor shot selection offensively would take back over.

6.  This is going to be an extremely entertaining season if one can temper expectations and enjoy the ups and downs.

7.  Ners relax, Wilson took two 3's and made one.  He was a little hesitant (possibly due to the knee) to get into the lane but I didn't see too many MU players penetrating so maybe that's not an emphasis in our new coach's offense so who knows?  It's too small a sample size to even begin to grade our Wojo, but I suspect there will be an adjustment period of tailoring your system to the personnel you have.  If this team looks as clueless on the defensive end come conference play then I'd say there's reason for concern but for now it's too early.

[79Warrior]

First off, all the optimism on this board after the UTM game shouldn't be completely abandoned en masse like many have chosen following last night's loss.  That said, tOSU shouldn't be ranked in my opinion and it seemed like we turned a winnable game into a second half snooze fest.  Here's my take on the loss.

1.  Compared to anyone who played last night, Devante Gardner was a defensive guru.  I often argued that much of his defensive deficiency was imagined by many on this forum, but I think watching the mediocre buckeye post players make mediocre moves around our defenders for wide open buckets shows a whole new level of defensive ineptitude.  It's really the sole reason for last night's loss.  Even an average defensive effort results in a game decided by the final possessions.

2.  Buzz Williams should watch this game to figure out how to run an offense against the 2-3 zone.  Coach Wojo I felt used a very effective coaching decision to consistently find easy baskets all game long.  It's too bad a few were missed that should never have been.  A minor tweak (which will lead to point 3) I would have liked to see employed was getting Burton the ball at the high post/free throw line in the middle of the zone.  For as effective as we were at getting the ball to the block, there was very little effort to exploit the zone from the free throw line and Burton is the type of player who could do it most effectively on our current roster.

3.  Deonte Burton shows why he's not starting with his bafflingly poor play.  He was inconsistent, made poor shot selections, and was trying to play faster than necessary resulting in silly turnovers.  He probably has the most talent on the team but needs to find his rhythm or he won't capitalize on his ability.

4.  When Cohen looks more composed than Anderson against quality NCAA competition it poses as a problem for this team all season.

5.  I thought Wojo made great usage out of his timeouts that prevented the collapse as long as possible.  Every time the game got to within 9-13 he called a TO and it seemed the team responded to get the lead back to a manageable deficit.  It's too bad that emphasis was never able to be sustained as it appeared that when Marquette would cut the lead to around 7 then the same defensive laziness/poor shot selection offensively would take back over.

6.  This is going to be an extremely entertaining season if one can temper expectations and enjoy the ups and downs.

7.  Ners relax, Wilson took two 3's and made one.  He was a little hesitant (possibly due to the knee) to get into the lane but I didn't see too many MU players penetrating so maybe that's not an emphasis in our new coach's offense so who knows?  It's too small a sample size to even begin to grade our Wojo, but I suspect there will be an adjustment period of tailoring your system to the personnel you have.  If this team looks as clueless on the defensive end come conference play then I'd say there's reason for concern but for now it's too early.

OSU will be just fine. I always laugh when fans put down the team that just beat us.

[PGsHeroes32]

Yeah the defense was bad especially in transition

But considering they shot lights out to start, we couldn't buy a 3(a lot of ins and out) and we missed multiple bunnies. I was really surprised the way we hung around especially in the 1st half(really could have been tied).

As I have said many times. This years end results are pretty meaningless. Its all about improving for next year and the near future when we could be electric. I think this team will give other teams some fits especially on a night where the 3s are falling.

Another big relief(only one game) was the complete lack of fouls. That is huge til Luke comes back. I know OSU was basically shooting jumpers for at least half the game but it was still nice.

[Ellisium]

First off, all the optimism on this board after the UTM game shouldn't be completely abandoned en masse like many have chosen following last night's loss.  That said, tOSU shouldn't be ranked in my opinion and it seemed like we turned a winnable game into a second half snooze fest.  Here's my take on the loss.

1.  Compared to anyone who played last night, Devante Gardner was a defensive guru.  I often argued that much of his defensive deficiency was imagined by many on this forum, but I think watching the mediocre buckeye post players make mediocre moves around our defenders for wide open buckets shows a whole new level of defensive ineptitude.  It's really the sole reason for last night's loss.  Even an average defensive effort results in a game decided by the final possessions.

2.  Buzz Williams should watch this game to figure out how to run an offense against the 2-3 zone.  Coach Wojo I felt used a very effective coaching decision to consistently find easy baskets all game long.  It's too bad a few were missed that should never have been.  A minor tweak (which will lead to point 3) I would have liked to see employed was getting Burton the ball at the high post/free throw line in the middle of the zone.  For as effective as we were at getting the ball to the block, there was very little effort to exploit the zone from the free throw line and Burton is the type of player who could do it most effectively on our current roster.

3.  Deonte Burton shows why he's not starting with his bafflingly poor play.  He was inconsistent, made poor shot selections, and was trying to play faster than necessary resulting in silly turnovers.  He probably has the most talent on the team but needs to find his rhythm or he won't capitalize on his ability.

4.  When Cohen looks more composed than Anderson against quality NCAA competition it poses as a problem for this team all season.

5.  I thought Wojo made great usage out of his timeouts that prevented the collapse as long as possible.  Every time the game got to within 9-13 he called a TO and it seemed the team responded to get the lead back to a manageable deficit.  It's too bad that emphasis was never able to be sustained as it appeared that when Marquette would cut the lead to around 7 then the same defensive laziness/poor shot selection offensively would take back over.

6.  This is going to be an extremely entertaining season if one can temper expectations and enjoy the ups and downs.

7.  Ners relax, Wilson took two 3's and made one.  He was a little hesitant (possibly due to the knee) to get into the lane but I didn't see too many MU players penetrating so maybe that's not an emphasis in our new coach's offense so who knows?  It's too small a sample size to even begin to grade our Wojo, but I suspect there will be an adjustment period of tailoring your system to the personnel you have.  If this team looks as clueless on the defensive end come conference play then I'd say there's reason for concern but for now it's too early.

Spot on regarding the defense.  MU's defense projects to leak like a sieve.  If anything, the defense should be ahead of the offense to start the season.  Juan Anderson, being a senior, played extremely poor.  Carlino can't handle a pick and roll.  These two guys are just too slow to stop anyone from driving to the hoop.  

[mattyv1908]

I think they're a quality team, but not a top 25 team.  Another way to look at it would be I don't consider them good enough to earn a 1-6 seed in the NCAAT.

They're not dominant inside.  The only reason they looked as good as they did was because of the zero interior defensive presense we gave them last night.

Their guards have potential but are not elite.

They let an undersized, undermanned opponent repeatedly find easy baskets.

The really good teams in the B1G will have a field day with tOSU.  Just wait a little while.

[Nevada233]

Juan is gonna be more like he was the last 3 years..... Than he was against Wisc Lutheran and UT Martin....

Just with way more playing time.

[tower912]

Can't argue with much you wrote, mattyv

[BM1090]

Agree with everything other than OSU not being a 1-6 seed. Think they will be top 25 all year and finish 2 or 3 in the Big Ten. Sure they will struggle in the post against bigger teams but they won't turn the ball over 18 times per game either. And they are pretty young/inexperienced and should vastly improve as the season goes on.

[mattyv1908]

Agree with everything other than OSU not being a 1-6 seed. Think they will be top 25 all year and finish 2 or 3 in the Big Ten. Sure they will struggle in the post against bigger teams but they won't turn the ball over 18 times per game either. And they are pretty young/inexperienced and should vastly improve as the season goes on.

If tOSU is the 2nd to 3rd  best team in the B1G then they are seriously overrated as a conference this season.  That team we played last night wouldn't have finished in the top 10 in the old Big East we played in just a couple seasons ago.

Put them in the current ACC and they'd finish bottom half.

[GooooMarquette]

Agree with most everything except the comments about Davante's impact on our interior defense.

Our interior D was very poor last night, but we were dramatically undersized up front, with essentially no backups.  As a result, Steve and Juan had to avoid foul trouble against bigger, stronger and fresher opponents.  That alone can lead to matador defense.  Things will improve when Luke becomes eligible, but I'd expect much of the same against quality opponents until then.  And I kinda doubt things would have been any better last night with Davante and Steve or Davante and Juan, with no backups.  Davante's sheer size might have changed a couple of drives, but I don't think defensive skill would have been part of the equation.

[GGGG]

Of course, that assumes that teams don't change / improve / regress during the year.

Two years ago, Marquette got embarrassed by Florida, lost to UWGB, and ended up winning the Big East and got to the Elite 8.

[mattyv1908]

Agree with most everything except the comments about Davante's impact on our interior defense.

Our interior D was very poor last night, but we were dramatically undersized up front, with essentially no backups.  As a result, Steve and Juan had to avoid foul trouble against bigger, stronger and fresher opponents.  That alone can lead to matador defense.  Things will improve when Luke becomes eligible, but I'd expect much of the same against quality opponents until then.  And I kinda doubt things would have been any better last night with Davante and Steve or Davante and Juan, with no backups.  Davante's sheer size might have changed a couple of drives, but I don't think defensive skill would have been part of the equation.

Again, you're buying into a false assumption perpetuated by people making excuses for Buzz's offensive/defensive substitution patterns with Gardner/Otule.

Gardner averaged more free throws made in a game than our entire team took last night.  Don't tell me he doesn't have an impact.  That's building in an excuse for the current poor performance we just witnessed.

Now I wasn't trying to bring up last year, just give a point of reference to what we just witnessed.

[GGGG]

Again, you're buying into a false assumption perpetuated by people making excuses for Buzz's offensive/defensive substitution patterns with Gardner/Otule.

Why are you calling this a "false assumption?"  I thought it was pretty obvious that Otule was a better defensive center than Gardner was.

[Silkk the Shaka]

If tOSU is the 2nd to 3rd  best team in the B1G then they are seriously overrated as a conference this season.  That team we played last night wouldn't have finished in the top 10 in the old Big East we played in just a couple seasons ago.

Put them in the current ACC and they'd finish bottom half.

KenPom data has them ranked 3rd in the Big10, with the projected record of tied for 2nd in conference play. They would rank 5th in the ACC under the same system, and they are 14th overall in the nation.

Trust me, they're good.

[mattyv1908]

Why are you calling this a "false assumption?"  I thought it was pretty obvious that Otule was a better defensive center than Gardner was.

Simple Sultan, because when you actually look at the numbers it becomes pretty obvious it was a false assumption.

Gardner's dRTG was 103.8 compared to Otule's 102.7.  These numbers indicate points allowed per 100 possessions a player is on the floor.  Marquette allowed 68.7 possessions/game last season so this difference accounts for less than a point/game difference in their defensive efficiency.

Compare Otule's oRTG of 108.9 to Gardner's oRTG of 127.6 and you can see that the only statistical certainty is that Gardner was an extremely superior offensive player.

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

[MerrittsMustache]

Simple Sultan, because when you actually look at the numbers it becomes pretty obvious it was a false assumption.

Gardner's dRTG was 103.8 compared to Otule's 102.7.  These numbers indicate points allowed per 100 possessions a player is on the floor.  Marquette allowed 68.7 possessions/game last season so this difference accounts for less than a point/game difference in their defensive efficiency.

Compare Otule's oRTG of 108.9 to Gardner's oRTG of 127.6 and you can see that the only statistical certainty is that Gardner was an extremely superior offensive player.

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

Creighton as a team had a DRtg of 103.9, which means they were, as a collective defense, roughly the statistical equivalent of 5 Davante Gardners

IOW, defense wasn't exactly a priority. They were looking to outscore teams. Not a great example.

[brandx]

Spot on regarding the defense.  MU's defense projects to leak like a sieve.  If anything, the defense should be ahead of the offense to start the season.  Juan Anderson, being a senior, played extremely poor.  Carlino can't handle a pick and roll.  These two guys are just too slow to stop anyone from driving to the hoop.  

You've obviously never played organized ball. Quit listening to the football cliches - this is basketball. Not to channel the hillbilly, but defense is work and trust and takes a long time.

We only have 2 guys who have ever played big minutes before in college. Even our upperclassmen have never played much other than Derrick.

[mattyv1908]

Creighton as a team had a DRtg of 103.9, which means they were, as a collective defense, roughly the statistical equivalent of 5 Davante Gardners

IOW, defense wasn't exactly a priority. They were looking to outscore teams. Not a great example.

And yet they allowed fewer PPG than Marquette did last season...  Makes you wonder.  

[brandx]

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

Then why wasn't Gardner a lottery pick

Exactly why many people hate over-reliance on statistics.

[Lennys Tap]

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

I love stats, but I hope this isn't supposed to prove anything regarding Gardner vs McDermott.

[mattyv1908]

Then why wasn't Gardner a lottery pick

Exactly why many people hate over-reliance on statistics.

Look, I'm comparing thier oRTG to shed some light on the huge difference of ability between Gardner and Otule when measured against the miniscule difference between their perceived defensive value which is minute.  This really has nothing to do with who got drafted to the NBA.  The world is full of NCAAB stars who can't make it in the NBA.  McDermott is no different and will soon be out of the league.

[Pakuni]

Then why wasn't Gardner a lottery pick

Exactly why many people hate over-reliance on statistics.

This, this and this again.
Advanced stats are great and all, but when they're used to imply in even the slightest sense that Davante Gardner had a comparable impact to Doug McDermott, it's time to actually watch a game.

Last night's advanced stats were in some key ways very ugly, but I feel much better about how the team performed last night than I did after watching last year's Buckeye beatdown.

[Windyplayer]

KenPom data has them ranked 3rd in the Big10, with the projected record of tied for 2nd in conference play. They would rank 5th in the ACC under the same system, and they are 14th overall in the nation.

Trust me, they're good.

Your statistical analysis is no substitute for what my eyes saw, bro.

[T-Bone]

We gotta play fast and smart in order to steal some games.  

[mattyv1908]

I love stats, but I hope this isn't supposed to prove anything regarding Gardner vs McDermott.

No it's not the intent at all.  The intent was to show how extremely close in real numbers Gardner and Otule were to defensive production last season despite the perception and in doing so put a guy on the bench more than needed when he was producing offensively at the rate of last season's POY (McDermott).