Mark Titus's Big East Preview

[The Lens]

IMO, the most thorough college hoops writer out there: 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2014-15-ncaa-basketball-preview-the-big-east-villanova-wildcats-georgetown-hoyas-xavier-butler-creighton-marquette/

[79Warrior]

Good stuff, but some heads will explode here over his "Marquette will be awful this year" comment".

[JakeBarnes]

Good stuff, but some heads will explode here over his "Marquette will be awful this year" comment".

In his defense, they haven't even won a game yet this season.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Good stuff, but some heads will explode here over his "Marquette will be awful this year" comment".

I still think this team is going to be better than most think, especially national guys, but maybe it is just blind optimism.  Obviously this team needs to stay healthy to have any chance at March.  Losing STJ or Luke when he returns would be devastating.  That said, I think this team is going to jive well together, but from the outside looking in, yeah, things look grim.  MU lost most of its scoring from a team that sucked last year, but as we all know, that isn't the whole story. The guys who will be asked to step up this year weren't given much of a chance to produce in the past. 

What bugs me more is Titus' comments about the Big East.  A upper mid-major conference on par with the MWC, A-10, WCC and MVC???  GMAFB.  The Big East in light-years ahead each and every one of those conferences.  But there is only one way for the conference to change that perception, and that is to win.  It all begins with the OOC games. The Big East needs to take care of business.  That said, I still think this conference is in the 4-6 range, on par with the SEC and PAC12 and maybe a tad behind the Big12. I would put the American safely in the 7 spot. 

[Galway Eagle]

I still think this team is going to be better than most think, especially national guys, but maybe it is just blind optimism.  Obviously this team needs to stay healthy to have any chance at March.  Losing STJ or Luke when he returns would be devastating.  That said, I think this team is going to jive well together, but from the outside looking in, yeah, things look grim.  MU lost most of its scoring from a team that sucked last year, but as we all know, that isn't the whole story. The guys who will be asked to step up this year weren't given much of a chance to produce in the past. 

What bugs me more is Titus' comments about the Big East.  A upper mid-major conference on par with the MWC, A-10, WCC and MVC???  GMAFB.  The Big East in light-years ahead each and every one of those conferences.  But there is only one way for the conference to change that perception, and that is to win.  It all begins with the OOC games. The Big East needs to take care of business.  That said, I still think this conference is in the 4-6 range, on par with the SEC and PAC12 and maybe a tad behind the Big12. I would put the American safely in the 7 spot. 

We don't have the star power of UConn in our conference so they're always gonna say we're pretty equal.  The A10 with VCU and Davidson added to it is close. though I'd consider us better.  The MWC is on par I think the MVC is definitely farrrr below since southern isn't what it used to be and Creightons gone and the WCC might as well be a 2.5 team conference so also very far below.

[tower912]

Marquette could very well be terrible this year.   I keep hearing Wojo say how much room for growth this team has and think it is code for 'we may not beat Wisconsin Lutheran'.    All it takes for MU to be bad is either a couple of injuries or a couple of guys who haven't played before that we assume are going to be better be exactly who they were while riding the bench under Buzz. 

[79Warrior]

Marquette could very well be terrible this year.   I keep hearing Wojo say how much room for growth this team has and think it is code for 'we may not beat Wisconsin Lutheran'.    All it takes for MU to be bad is either a couple of injuries or a couple of guys who haven't played before that we assume are going to be better be exactly who they were while riding the bench under Buzz. 

Agree. If last years benchwarmers do not contribute, then we are in for a multi year rebuild.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We don't have the star power of UConn in our conference so they're always gonna say we're pretty equal.  The A10 with VCU and Davidson added to it is close. though I'd consider us better.  The MWC is on par I think the MVC is definitely farrrr below since southern isn't what it used to be and Creightons gone and the WCC might as well be a 2.5 team conference so also very far below.

Wait, you're kidding right?  The A-10 is a solid conference, but it is was worse than the Big East last year in a year where the Big East was down. The MWC and AAC have a great top half, but the bottom half is pitiful. The Big East is much more comparable to the SEC and the PAC12. And I have stats to back that up...

Using KenPom's final rankings as the measuring stick...

American: Average of 120.82, featuring the likes of UCONN (8), Cincinnati (23), SMU (30) and Memphis (37) towards the top, but South Florida (186), East Carolina (242) and Tulane (282) at the bottom.  Gross.

A-10: The A-10 had a great year last year and had an average KenPom rating of 87.93.  That featured 6 top 55 teams VCU (17), SLU (35), Dayton (38), St. Joes (46), George Washington (47) and UMASS (54), but also the likes of Duquesne (147), Fordham (204) and Rhode Island (103).  George Washington (47), UMASS (54), St. Joes (46) and Dayton (38) will not be as good this year.  The A-10 is a nice little conference, but every team in it would love to be in the Big East (see: SLU and Dayton).

MWC: Average of 141.36, with four top 100 teams in SDSU (18), New Mexico (31), Boise State (79) and UNLV (91) and 7 teams 100+ including Colorado State (136), Nevade (146), Air Force (263) and San Jose State (302).  Again, a nice upper tier mid major conference, but hard to say they are on par with the Big East (in a down year).

Big East: Average of 75 last year, higher than the American, A-10 and MWC, in what everyone would call a down year for the Big East as a whole, due to a very poor OOC and showings in the big dance.  Only two teams fell outside the top 100 in Butler (104 - just barely) and Depaul (198).  Nova (14) and Creighton (24) had nice years, but other top programs in Georgetown (65) and Marquette (76) fell significantly below their regular season.  One could even argue Xavier (59) was a bit down last year.  The rest fall about where I expect them to most seasons in Providence (51), St. Johns (61 - should be a bit higher most years), and Seton Hall (98).  This is a deep conference that really only has one bad team.

Just for fun, and for the sake of my argument, let's compare the Big East to the PAC12 and SEC.

Pac12: Average of 71.75 last year, featuring six top 50 programs in Arizona (2), UCLA (15), Oregon (29), Stanford (36), Utah (42) and Arizona State (45).  Only two teams fell outside of the top 100 in USC (163) and Washington St (183).  I think the PAC12 and Big East are very comparable, but obviously the BE lacks the elite, Blue Blood program that the PAC12 has in Arizona.  

SEC: The SEC had an average of 75.64, just behind the Big East. The SEC was, and usually will be, very top heavy with Florida (3), Kentucky (11) and Tennessee (7).  Then comes the next tier with Texas A&M (39), Arkansas (52) LSU (58), Georgia (72) and Missouri (78).  Some of these programs overachieved last year, while others underachieved.  Generally, the SEC will be very top heavy, the middle will be full of teams between 55-80, and then several stinkers, much like last year with South Carolina (114), Auburn (129), and Mississippi State (208). Kentucky and Florida keep this conference afloat, and without them, the Big East would be far superior.

To recap, the final 2014 average KenPom rankings for the A-10, MWC, AAC, BE, SEC and PAC12 were as follows:

PAC12 - 71.75
Big East - 75
SEC - 75.64
A-10 - 87.93
American - 120.82
MWC - 130.27

Any more questions?