Chicago Sun Times: Big Ten's "next move will be adding the 15th & 16th schools"

[Texas Western]

Correct, though the key here is inside out thinking, not the other way around.  Too many people here target certain schools for expansion because they are "good in basketball"..see UCONN.  The reality is, the Big Ten has expanded with not the greatest athletic schools, taking AAU schools and in new territories.  The theory being that the Big Ten, new exposure, etc will lift those schools athletic prospects, not the other way around.  The money comes regardless of who they add because of the territorial expansion.

This is why I've said so many times that it isn't who, it's WHERE.  If Florida State wanted to join the Big Ten, I highly doubt the Big Ten would take them.  Yet, the Big Ten would take UNC, a school much further down the football pedigree.  Same for UVA or Georgia Tech.

Florida State interested in SEC not Big Ten. Georgia Tech a very good Big Ten fit. Academic pedigree and brings Atlanta. Also they are not really in the vanguard of the ACC so an easy switch  for them . UNC DUke and UVA kind of tied at the hip with snob appeal of the alumni. Getting them to jump may be easier said than done.

[keefe]

Getting them to jump may be easier said than done.

"Virtue never has been as respectable as money."  --  Samuel Clemens

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Correct, though the key here is inside out thinking, not the other way around.  Too many people here target certain schools for expansion because they are "good in basketball"..see UCONN.  The reality is, the Big Ten has expanded with not the greatest athletic schools, taking AAU schools and in new territories.  The theory being that the Big Ten, new exposure, etc will lift those schools athletic prospects, not the other way around.  The money comes regardless of who they add because of the territorial expansion.

This is why I've said so many times that it isn't who, it's WHERE.  If Florida State wanted to join the Big Ten, I highly doubt the Big Ten would take them.  Yet, the Big Ten would take UNC, a school much further down the football pedigree.  Same for UVA or Georgia Tech.

What do you think the B10 will look like in 15 years? Similar or same to what it is now?

[texaswarrior74]

Florida State interested in SEC not Big Ten. Georgia Tech a very good Big Ten fit. Academic pedigree and brings Atlanta. Also they are not really in the vanguard of the ACC so an easy switch  for them . UNC DUke and UVA kind of tied at the hip with snob appeal of the alumni. Getting them to jump may be easier said than done.

Delaney is a UNC grad and would really love for them to join the B1G.

UNC football fans would like them to be part of the SEC but the academic powers-to-be would not go for that and in that regard, the B1G is a much better fit. Dook is the problem child...great basketball history both men and women, nothing much in any other sport than lacrosse and soccer. They play football in a glorified high school stadium. Don't think the B1G wants two Northwesterns.

[GGGG]

According to some people I know in North Carolina, I don't think UNC is as tied to Duke as people think they are. 

[keefe]

According to some people I know in North Carolina, I don't think UNC is as tied to Duke as people think they are. 

This is correct. People only need look at what has transpired over the past decade to understand that tradition has no place at this table.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

This is correct. People only need look at what has transpired over the past decade to understand that tradition has no place at this table.

Agreed, which is why people should quit listening to stuff politicians and schools officials say, and look at what is actually happening and why.

Here is a free hint: It rhymes with "runny".

Everything else is a secondary factor. As that revenue settles in, you'll see a second round of evolution and consolidation over the next 10 years. 

Conferences are now basically operated as a for-profit endeavor, and shareholders (schools) are going to want financial growth.

[Chicago_inferiority_complexes]

This is correct. People only need look at what has transpired over the past decade to understand that tradition has no place at this table.

I also wonder to what extent any private school can last in this new model of big college sports. Even Notre Dame is doomed long term, IMO. It's just going to take them a bit longer than it's taken Marquette, etc.

[GGGG]

I also wonder to what extent any private school can last in this new model of big college sports. Even Notre Dame is doomed long term, IMO. It's just going to take them a bit longer than it's taken Marquette, etc.

Here are the list of BCS level, private football schools:

Boston College, Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, TCU, Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame.

All of these schools have endowments in excess of $1B, except for Miami which is about $900M.  (Or twice the size of Marquette's.)

And yet for all of these schools, recent success has had trouble proving sustainable. 

[Coleman]

Here are the list of BCS level, private football schools:

Boston College, Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, TCU, Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame.

All of these schools have endowments in excess of $1B, except for Miami which is about $900M.  (Or twice the size of Marquette's.)

And yet for all of these schools, recent success has had trouble proving sustainable. 

What about USC? BYU?

[GGGG]

What about USC? BYU?

Oh thanks for USC.  Completely missed that. 

BYU isn't a member of a BCS conference.  They are independent in football and don't have the agreement that ND has.

[ChicosBailBonds]

What do you think the B10 will look like in 15 years? Similar or same to what it is now?

I think slightly bigger, keeping with their academic mission of AAU schools, geographic expansion.  I know you keep saying RUNNY MONEY, that's fine...you can do both.  The bigger question is how does college athletics look in 15 years.  

I don't believe in the national Big Ten with 32 teams or whatever was thrown around here earlier.  Anything is possible, but in my view they will pull a NASCAR at that point and expand too far, lose their roots and people will become disenchanted.

[ChicosBailBonds]

According to some people I know in North Carolina, I don't think UNC is as tied to Duke as people think they are. 

Correct.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I would love to see the ACC crumble right before Brents eyes and leave him and VT sitting in the ruins.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I think slightly bigger, keeping with their academic mission of AAU schools, geographic expansion.  I know you keep saying RUNNY MONEY, that's fine...you can do both.  The bigger question is how does college athletics look in 15 years.  

I don't believe in the national Big Ten with 32 teams or whatever was thrown around here earlier.  Anything is possible, but in my view they will pull a NASCAR at that point and expand too far, lose their roots and people will become disenchanted.

I think all things considered equal, the B10 would love to only be comprised of the top athletic and academic institutions. So, I agree that their primary targets will be AAU schools that have the size and market that they want.  

HOWEVER, where I disagree with you is that they will stay limited to that philosophy. I think in the next 15 years they will accept a non-AAU school(s) and/or limited members (think UND for Hockey, or MU for hoops, or Notre Dame, etc.).

I don't think the evolution of college athletics is going to stop. There is too much money going around to get people to say "Nah, no thanks. We're good."

As far as over-expansion, it's always a risk with whatever product you have. Apple killed it with the iphone, Microsoft got killed with the Zune (relatively). Blackberry didn't scout out enough new revenue sources or emerging markets, and they got buried. NASCAR was hot, but lost some of it's luster.

My point is, this is about money now, and while the incremental gains won't be as great, I don't think they are going to stop trying to add revenue, even if its from Hockey, or Basketball, or whatever. They are going to leverage every piece of content they have to MAKE MORE MONEY.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think all things considered equal, the B10 would love to only be comprised of the top athletic and academic institutions. So, I agree that their primary targets will be AAU schools that have the size and market that they want.  

HOWEVER, where I disagree with you is that they will stay limited to that philosophy. I think in the next 15 years they will accept a non-AAU school(s) and/or limited members (think UND for Hockey, or MU for hoops, or Notre Dame, etc.).

I don't think the evolution of college athletics is going to stop. There is too much money going around to get people to say "Nah, no thanks. We're good."

As far as over-expansion, it's always a risk with whatever product you have. Apple killed it with the iphone, Microsoft got killed with the Zune (relatively). Blackberry didn't scout out enough new revenue sources or emerging markets, and they got buried. NASCAR was hot, but lost some of it's luster.

My point is, this is about money now, and while the incremental gains won't be as great, I don't think they are going to stop trying to add revenue, even if its from Hockey, or Basketball, or whatever. They are going to leverage every piece of content they have to MAKE MORE MONEY.

They might try, but there isn't much that is accretive in those sports.  To get more revenue, someone ultimately has to be willing to watch and pay for it.  That isn't happening right now. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I would love to see the ACC crumble right before Brents eyes and leave him and VT sitting in the ruins.

I would too. Not because of Buzz. But it sets the table for later. College athletics is evolving and one day we may see schools like Wake Forest and Duke give up their football teams to save money. And guess what conference will be waiting to welcome them with open arms.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I would too. Not because of Buzz. But it sets the table for later. College athletics is evolving and one day we may see schools like Wake Forest and Duke give up their football teams to save money. And guess what conference will be waiting to welcome them with open arms.

This. People criticize the Big East because it isn't as strong as it was prior to 2013 and as much as we hate it, its true. However, it provided extreme stability in the years to come and still very competitive with very successful teams.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

They might try, but there isn't much that is accretive in those sports.  To get more revenue, someone ultimately has to be willing to watch and pay for it.  That isn't happening right now.  

Live content is in demand for advertisers right now. It's DVR proof and if B10 already owns all of the equipment and pays the staff salaries with broadcasting college football, it's not hard to be profitable adding incremental sports.

While college basketball, hockey, lacrosse and baseball aren't big revenue generators right now, in theory they have potential to make revenue for the B10 Network.

Obviously football is the king, 100x over. But, that doesn't mean there isn't still some money to be made.

I think in another 5 years you're going to see the B10 consider additional revenue streams from these incremental additions.

Oh, and yes, I know the B10 would turn their nose up at certain football schools... but I could also envision a situation where there is soooooo much money on the line that they make an "exception".

[ChicosBailBonds]

Live content is in demand for advertisers right now. It's DVR proof and if B10 already owns all of the equipment and pays the staff salaries with broadcasting college football, it's not hard to be profitable adding incremental sports.

While college basketball, hockey, lacrosse and baseball aren't big revenue generators right now, in theory they have potential to make revenue for the B10 Network.

Obviously football is the king, 100x over. But, that doesn't mean there isn't still some money to be made.

I think in another 5 years you're going to see the B10 consider additional revenue streams from these incremental additions.

Oh, and yes, I know the B10 would turn their nose up at certain football schools... but I could also envision a situation where there is soooooo much money on the line that they make an "exception".

Live content still has to be worthy content.  All kinds of live content today that people don't watch, even though it is live.  Is it compelling, is it worth watching, etc?  Sure, ESPN needs to put on women's softball all weekend long to fill hours, but no one is watching...I mean literally NO ONE.  College hockey, no one.  Men's college baseball, no one.  Live sports is absolutely DVR proof and those in the industry have said this for many years, it is why sports channels charge such crazy fees.  That being said, the ratings still aren't that good and the cost per rating horrendous.  This is where the tide has to turn. 

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Live content still has to be worthy content.  All kinds of live content today that people don't watch, even though it is live.  Is it compelling, is it worth watching, etc?  Sure, ESPN needs to put on women's softball all weekend long to fill hours, but no one is watching...I mean literally NO ONE.  College hockey, no one.  Men's college baseball, no one.  Live sports is absolutely DVR proof and those in the industry have said this for many years, it is why sports channels charge such crazy fees.  That being said, the ratings still aren't that good and the cost per rating horrendous.  This is where the tide has to turn. 

Nobody watches college basketball? Nobody watches college hockey?

You know who watches? Males under 50. You know who LOVES males under 50? Every advertiser ever. (hyperbole).

I mean, I get it, outside of football, college sports is niche programing. But, that doesn't mean there isn't money in that niche. Just ask N-N-N-NAPA know how.

[Tugg Speedman]

Pac-12 Conference: Record revenue, per-school splits, Scott's compensation and more

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2014/05/27/pac-12-conference-record-revenue-per-school-splits-scotts-compensation-and-more/

[keefe]

ESPN needs to put on women's softball all weekend long to fill hours, but no one is watching...I mean literally NO ONE.   

You are wrong. Walk into any Subaru dealership west of the Rockies and they have women's softball on the tube.

[Texas Western]

Here are the list of BCS level, private football schools:

Boston College, Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, TCU, Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame.

All of these schools have endowments in excess of $1B, except for Miami which is about $900M.  (Or twice the size of Marquette's.)

And yet for all of these schools, recent success has had trouble proving sustainable. 

Syracuse, SMU , Rice also

[GGGG]

Syracuse, SMU , Rice also

Syracuse yes.  Not SMU or Rice.