Biggest Unknowns for this Offseason

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

A list of question marks that I think a lot of us will be wondering about during the offseason:

1. Who will not be a Warrior in 2014-2015?
As of right now, we have 13 scholarships filled. Unfortunately, the leaves young Mr. Malek Harris out in the cold. Jeff Goodman also recently named Marquette on Temple standout Anthony Lee's short list of transfer destinations. We have had a transfer every year under Buzz (same as about every other program in the nation). Will we have a transfer? More than one? Or is Harris taking his talents  somewhere else?

2. Will Derrick Wilson develop an outside shot?
For better or for worse, Derrick Wilson is the incumbent starting PG and the position will be his to lose next season. I'm not saying he will start, I'm saying that the evidence points to him being the most likely starter. Derrick does a lot of things right, but his lack of an outside shot makes him a liability on the offensive end. In theory, if Derrick could make a couple of threes, the defense would stop sagging on him and he would be a more effective option. Maybe we can put him on the Vander improved shooting plan from 2 years ago.

3. Will Duane Wilson, John Dawson, Todd Mayo, etc be able to win the starting PG job?
We have a lot of promising untested talent on the PG position. Our PG play this season left a lot to be desired. If the young bucks can put in the work and learn the defense, maybe they can supplant the incumbent. Or maybe it will be Todd Mayo. Buzz let Mayo run the point a few possessions against X and the results were...awful. But the offseason is a long time. With practice, it may become a viable option.

4. What's up with Steve Taylor?
Steve Taylor turned in two of the most dominating performances a Marquette player had all season....and those were followed up with him riding the pine most of the season. The popular assumption is that Taylor suffered setbacks in recovery from his offseason surgery. Who knows? Hopefully an offseason of recovery will get him back to full strength because we are going to need him. Taylor seems to be the leading candidate for the starting C job...at least until Luke Fischer is eligible.

5. Are we even done recruiting for the 2014 class?
We all know Buzz loves him some jucos. There is also Anthony Lee, the potential transfer from Temple. Not to mention there are still 4 open offers out to HS seniors (D'Angelo Allen, Travon Bunch, Jakeem Yates, and Legend Robertin).

6. Can Buzz reel in Diamond Stone by the early signing period?
Or at all for that matter. There have been all sorts of scoopers claiming to have inside information that Diamond is coming to Marquette....and just as many saying he's heading to a blue blood....and of course there is Kenosha Warrior letting us know every time Diamond retweets something from a Bucky fan (just kidding with ya KW). Believe what you will but this race is far from over. Everything I have heard leads me to believe that Diamond has a solid MU lean. If Buzz can reel him in, it would represent the best recruit MU has landed since the 70s. Kid is legit. A buddy of mine has attended a few games and says he is a  dominant 5 with shooting of a stretch 4. He could elevate the program to new heights.

8. How many jobs will Buzz be linked to?
 

9. How much will the 2014 class be utilized?
If you are a scooper, you are familiar with the belief that Buzz does not play freshmen. It is true, Buzz prefers to rely on experience and has trouble trusting freshmen, even if they are talented. With only 4 upperclassmen returning, Buzz will be forced to rely on several underclassmen not only for minutes, but for starting. Does his belief about freshmen hold when 3/4 of his players are underclassmen? Hill seems like the real deal and has alluded to Buzz being willing to build the team around him. Cohen has a story that only Jimmy Butler can beat and has raw talent. Shayok has that switchable label that Buzz loves. And Pierce? Well Pierce is tall and that is lacking on next years team. Lots of reasons to believe that these frosh could have an immediate impact.

10. How good will Deonte Burton be?
The last few games showed us some special performances from Deonte. How accurate of a portrayal is it for next season? Hopefully very.

[IrwinFletcher]

Can we please, please, PLEASE stop with the Todd Mayo at PG deal.  He is way too loose with his handle and even if he was batter with the dribble, it takes away what he does best.

We have 3 guys who are PG's, those guys should be able to man the position just fine.

[chapman]

Another, I'm eager to know if there will be some assistant turnover.  I fully expect, and actually hope there will be.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Without question, who will be transferring/leaving from the program.

Between Buzz being linked to (more) jobs already, and the unfounded rumors of Duane, JJ leaving, it would be a shock if no one left.

[ChicosBailBonds]

TAMU, good stuff.  My one nit to pick is the comment that a transfer a year is what almost every other school in the nation is going through.  The transfer rate for college basketball players is high, but not that high.  It is at 34% according to ESPN in August of 2013. 

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/87073/new-light-on-transfer-trends

[77ncaachamps]

Unknowns?

EVERYONE.

We don't know if the Good Todd or the Bad Todd will show up. Then again, I guess that's normal so it's really a given.

Will Deonte take the horn and lead this team?

And I guess it's not an unknown: we know Derrick is going to miss some 0 foot bunnies, shoot 50% from the line, and dribble in place for at least 30 seconds a game.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

One thing I can almost garantuee. Its going to be the Todd and Deonte show next year, and I am very ok with that.

[willie warrior]

Can we please, please, PLEASE stop with the Todd Mayo at PG deal.  He is way too loose with his handle and even if he was batter with the dribble, it takes away what he does best.

We have 3 guys who are PG's, those guys should be able to man the position just fine.

Agreed. This is a dumb proposition at PG.

[jsglow]

Concur that Todd's role is at the #2.  Simply does not have the handle for PG responsibilities.  My sincere hope is that he'll improve his handle on the way to the hoop on his patented drives.  Right now, he turns the ball over too much and we need his ability in that area.  If I were Buzz, that's what I'd work on with him over the summer.

[Texas Western]

A list of question marks that I think a lot of us will be wondering about during the offseason:

1. Who will not be a Warrior in 2014-2015?
As of right now, we have 13 scholarships filled. Unfortunately, the leaves young Mr. Malek Harris out in the cold. Jeff Goodman also recently named Marquette on Temple standout Anthony Lee's short list of transfer destinations. We have had a transfer every year under Buzz (same as about every other program in the nation). Will we have a transfer? More than one? Or is Harris taking his talents  somewhere else?

2. Will Derrick Wilson develop an outside shot?
For better or for worse, Derrick Wilson is the incumbent starting PG and the position will be his to lose next season. I'm not saying he will start, I'm saying that the evidence points to him being the most likely starter. Derrick does a lot of things right, but his lack of an outside shot makes him a liability on the offensive end. In theory, if Derrick could make a couple of threes, the defense would stop sagging on him and he would be a more effective option. Maybe we can put him on the Vander improved shooting plan from 2 years ago.

3. Will Duane Wilson, John Dawson, Todd Mayo, etc be able to win the starting PG job?
We have a lot of promising untested talent on the PG position. Our PG play this season left a lot to be desired. If the young bucks can put in the work and learn the defense, maybe they can supplant the incumbent. Or maybe it will be Todd Mayo. Buzz let Mayo run the point a few possessions against X and the results were...awful. But the offseason is a long time. With practice, it may become a viable option.

4. What's up with Steve Taylor?
Steve Taylor turned in two of the most dominating performances a Marquette player had all season....and those were followed up with him riding the pine most of the season. The popular assumption is that Taylor suffered setbacks in recovery from his offseason surgery. Who knows? Hopefully an offseason of recovery will get him back to full strength because we are going to need him. Taylor seems to be the leading candidate for the starting C job.

5. Are we even done recruiting for the 2014 class?
We all know Buzz loves him some jucos. There is also Anthony Lee, the potential transfer from Temple. Not to mention there are still 4 open offers out to HS seniors (D'Angelo Allen, Travon Bunch, Jakeem Yates, and Legend Robertin).

6. Can Buzz reel in Diamond Stone by the early signing period?
Or at all for that matter. There have been all sorts of scoopers claiming to have inside information that Diamond is coming to Marquette....and just as many saying he's heading to a blue blood....and of course there is Kenosha Warrior letting us know every time Diamond retweets something from a Bucky fan (just kidding with ya KW). Believe what you will but this race is far from over. Everything I have heard leads me to believe that Diamond has a solid MU lean. If Buzz can reel him in, it would represent the best recruit MU has landed since the 70s. Kid is legit. A buddy of mine has attended a few games and says he is a  dominant 5 with shooting of a stretch 4. He could elevate the program to new heights.

8. How many jobs will Buzz be linked to?
 

9. How much will the 2014 class be utilized?
If you are a scooper, you are familiar with the belief that Buzz does not play freshmen. It is true, Buzz prefers to rely on experience and has trouble trusting freshmen, even if they are talented. With only 4 upperclassmen returning, Buzz will be forced to rely on several underclassmen not only for minutes, but for starting. Does his belief about freshmen hold when 3/4 of his players are underclassmen? Hill seems like the real deal and has alluded to Buzz being willing to build the team around him. Cohen has a story that only Jimmy Butler can beat and has raw talent. Shayok has that switchable label that Buzz loves. And Pierce? Well Pierce is tall and that is lacking on next years team. Lots of reasons to believe that these frosh could have an immediate impact.

10. How good will Deonte Burton be?
The last few games showed us some special performances from Deonte. How accurate of a portrayal is it for next season? Hopefully very.

Good post agree with most of the points made. point 2 is the make or break issue. as far as I am concerned another year of Derrick at PG will be severely detrimental to the program.

[BCHoopster]

Concur that Todd's role is at the #2.  Simply does not have the handle for PG responsibilities.  My sincere hope is that he'll improve his handle on the way to the hoop on his patented drives.  Right now, he turns the ball over too much and we need his ability in that area.  If I were Buzz, that's what I'd work on with him over the summer.

I think he does better at the 3, not quick enough to be a 2.

[Lennys Tap]

TAMU, good stuff.  My one nit to pick is the comment that a transfer a year is what almost every other school in the nation is going through.  The transfer rate for college basketball players is high, but not that high.  It is at 34% according to ESPN in August of 2013. 

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/87073/new-light-on-transfer-trends

You picked the wrong nit. An average recruiting class has 4 players (I know that's 16 but if 1 a year transfers it's 12). 4 x .34 (transfer rate) 1.36 transfers per season. So with 13 scholarships the number is close to 1.5.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

TAMU, good stuff.  My one nit to pick is the comment that a transfer a year is what almost every other school in the nation is going through.  The transfer rate for college basketball players is high, but not that high.  It is at 34% according to ESPN in August of 2013. 

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/87073/new-light-on-transfer-trends

Here's where I got my data

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9415252/tracking-every-transfer-2013-offseason-college-basketball

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/18443369/2012-end-of-year-updated-transfer-list-300-plus-and-growing

At least in the last two years there have been over 350 transfers. That means that teams are averaging over a transfer per year during the last two years. It seems like pretty basic math to me but I could be missing something

[tower912]

Your math was fine.   It didn't make Buzz look bad enough. 

[We R Final Four]

TAMU, good stuff.  My one nit to pick is the comment that a transfer a year is what almost every other school in the nation is going through.  The transfer rate for college basketball players is high, but not that high.  It is at 34% according to ESPN in August of 2013. 

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/87073/new-light-on-transfer-trends

Reading TAMUs post I knew there would be one person who would comment on the national rate or transfers--and I wasn't disappointed.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You picked the wrong nit. An average recruiting class has 4 players (I know that's 16 but if 1 a year transfers it's 12). 4 x .34 (transfer rate) 1.36 transfers per season. So with 13 scholarships the number is close to 1.5.

I would have done the calculation in a very similar fashion....my nit was more about the comment same as about every other school in the country.  So the missing piece to the equation is the number of multiple transfers per school.  In other words, many schools have multiple transfers and many have zero....when that is factored in, it changes things.

Using TAMU's link with the 450 players in 2012, if I sort them by school there are 235 schools that had transfers in that year....about 115 that had none.  As I said, it is a small nit, some schools have a lot of transfers, some have a few and some have none.  About 67% in that year had a transfer....again, a small nit.  Those numbers also include include kids that graduated and moved on to play a final year elsewhere under the rule changes from a few years ago..I consider those to be a much different classification of transfer, but I kept them in here just the same for the counts.

Some of the bigger transfer contributors that year.  San Francisco & Utah with 6.  Northern Arizona, Texas Tech, Wright State and Rhode Island with 5.  Arizona State, Central Michigan, FIU, Michigan, Mississippi, Northeastern, UC Davis, Utah State with 4.  A bunch of teams with 3. 

Just a nit

[ChicosBailBonds]

Reading TAMUs post I knew there would be one person who would comment on the national rate or transfers--and I wasn't disappointed.

So happy to fill the empty void.  Many schools get by just fine without any transfers.  Look, I'm not blaming the schools or as Tower wants to imply, Buzz.  Not the case at all.  If anything, a society that coddles kids, tells them they should all be playing right away, entitlement, etc.  It's the millenial way and has been on steroids in the college basketball world for a long time.  I blame the kids, AAU, parents, etc every bit if not more.  Some are just bad fits for the school, some just don't want to work, others were promised something by the coach, etc, etc.  So you get the situation we're in. 

[The Lens]

I think Luke Fisher's contributions can be a season changer.  

We know Deonte can score and hopefully rebound his position
We know Todd can close
We hope Duane can run the show

Can Luke be a player down low that gives us 12 & 6?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Your math was fine.   It didn't make Buzz look bad enough. 

It's missing one key variable...the math was fine up to the point of addressing the statement...which then requires you look at the number of schools that actually have transfers.  If you want to say on average there are 450 transfers per year and there are only 350 DI schools, meaning on average 1.29 transfers per school...the math is wonderful.  No argument. 

Problem is that assumes every school had a transfer, which is not the case.  That's where you need to add the extra step of how many schools actually had a transfer.  When you do that, the number is closer to 1.92 transfers per school that actually have a transfer while 33% of DI schools (using the 2012 population) had none at all.

The math is just fine....it wasn't an implication against Buzz.  If anything, an implication against today's youth that doesn't like adversity and listens to too many whispers in their ears.   

[muwarrior69]

You left out Luke Fischer. When he becomes eligible, I think Steve can move to the 4. What this team really needs is consistent shooting from the arc.

[milwaukee ex-pat]

Good post agree with most of the points made. point 2 is the make or break issue. as far as I am concerned another year of Derrick at PG will be severely detrimental to the program.

Also agree with most of the post but would just add that missing an outside shot is not the true deal breaker for Derrick.  He can't finish.  He can't reliably make a lay up.  Can't shoot free throws.  Love the guy but his inability to score even on the break kills what used to be called Buzz ball.  Our long athletic switchables lends itself to  forcing turnovers and scoring on them.  Deonte, JJJ, Todd, Dawson, the new recruits etc. all can do this.  Both our starting guards this past season couldn't (Jake could not reliably make a lay up in transition either).  That was the killer.  For some reason Buzz chose to try strong defense over outscoring the other team with constant attacking a la the triplets.  I think this was because the seniors were bigs (Otule, Gardner, J. Wilson) and Buzz's culture respects seniors (personally I think hindsight being 20/20 using the bigs in an attacking scheme, sacrificing some defense for points, would have been more successful but I trust Buzz completely and am in the camp that we just had some tough luck, losing a lot of close games). 

With that group gone I fully expect an attacking offense again that generates lots of free throws and transition scores.  Derrick goes back to being a back up.

[Lennys Tap]

It's missing one key variable...the math was fine up to the point of addressing the statement...which then requires you look at the number of schools that actually have transfers.  If you want to say on average there are 450 transfers per year and there are only 350 DI schools, meaning on average 1.29 transfers per school...the math is wonderful.  No argument. 

Problem is that assumes every school had a transfer, which is not the case.  That's where you need to add the extra step of how many schools actually had a transfer.  When you do that, the number is closer to 1.92 transfers per school that actually have a transfer while 33% of DI schools (using the 2012 population) had none at all.

If the same 110 or 115 teams have zero transfers every year or the same 100 teams have multiple transfers every year then your point has meaning, but if the more common way schools reach the 1.29 average is by going 2,0,1,2 then not so much.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If the same 110 or 115 teams have zero transfers every year or the same 100 teams have multiple transfers every year then your point has meaning, but if the more common way schools reach the 1.29 average is by going 2,0,1,2 then not so much.

Fair point.  We would need the data to prove it out.  There are some schools like Wisconsin that has 2 transfers in the last 5 years.  There are schools like Arizona State which I think has somewhere around 12 or 13 (I might be quoting the wrong team).  It would be interesting to see the data.

[Lennys Tap]

Fair point.  We would need the data to prove it out.  There are some schools like Wisconsin that has 2 transfers in the last 5 years.  There are schools like Arizona State which I think has somewhere around 12 or 13 (I might be quoting the wrong team).  It would be interesting to see the data.

Agree. Mean, median, etc., but as long as MU isn't on the high end I wouldn't worry too much. Unfortunately it's part of the landscape of college bball.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You left out Luke Fischer. When he becomes eligible, I think Steve can move to the 4. What this team really needs is consistent shooting from the arc.

True, I penciled Steve in at the 5 for the beginning of the season. I edited the original post to note that Fischer is likely to take over come winter.