Bill Gates: People Don't Realize How Many Jobs Will Soon Be Replaced By Software

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Depends what you are raising the minimum wage TO.

Yes, if $50k, as Chicos suggests, is the new minimum wage jobs would be eliminated.

If you raise it to $10/hr, a historically average minimum wage (adjusted for inflation), and then tied it to CPI adjustments thereafter, the impact would be minimal.

Let's not forget, someone is subsidizing the working poor, one way or the other. Right now, its taxpayers through food stamp and Medicaid assistance, while companies maintain record-high profit margins. I think it would be smart to shift some of that burden back to the corporations, and away from taxpayers.


Here's the deal:  I remember when minimum wage was instituted and its intent was to create jobs for people, mostly the young, who had no job experience and needed something on their resume. It was never intended for people to live on it hence the moniker "minimum wage". It was only since the large influx of uneducated immigrants who had no job experience that the argument began to be advanced that people couldn't live on minimum wage. If companies are forced to pay more than the job is worth then jobs will disappear as Gates is warning. Companies answer to shareholders and owe it to them to stay in business. Just ask Sears and Penny's these days as buying habits change. I am in the camp where the markets should set the worth of a job.

I agree that the $15 fast food workers are striking for is probably too high. But NO ONE can get by on $7.25 an hour. It is a joke. Raise it to 10.

[mu03eng]

I don't think its a panacea. As I said before, its just shifting some of the burden away from taxpayers and back on to the employers, back to historically average levels.

People act like raising the minimum wage is actually raising it, when all it does is restore it to old levels. It has not been raised since 2009, which means in real dollars it has gone down every year for five years. They should at the very least raise it to 2009 levels in 2013 dollars, and chain it to inflation (currently about $8 a hour), but if they restored it to 1960s and 1970s levels, it would be about $10.

Right so you really aren't accomplishing anything.  You are moving the burden from the taxpayers to employers who either absorb that cost at reduced margin(so reducing their income and purchase power) or more likely the employers are passing that increased cost onto customers who then pay more for the goods....

the net change to those with minimum wage is nothing(increased wage is absorbed in increase cost of goods), net change to taxpayers is largely negative(increased cost of goods plus raise your hand if you think tax burden is reduced to reflect the reduced "need"), and the employers have a net negative (increased cost they either absorb or pass on, if absorbed less money and if passed on, pissed off customers).

So what have you ultimately accomplished?  Have we addressed the skills gap in anyway?  Have we improved anyone's life?  Why are those on minimum wage trying to live on it, what is the core cause for that as a need?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Right so you really aren't accomplishing anything.  You are moving the burden from the taxpayers to employers who either absorb that cost at reduced margin(so reducing their income and purchase power) or more likely the employers are passing that increased cost onto customers who then pay more for the goods....

the net change to those with minimum wage is nothing(increased wage is absorbed in increase cost of goods), net change to taxpayers is largely negative(increased cost of goods plus raise your hand if you think tax burden is reduced to reflect the reduced "need"), and the employers have a net negative (increased cost they either absorb or pass on, if absorbed less money and if passed on, pissed off customers).

So what have you ultimately accomplished?  Have we addressed the skills gap in anyway?  Have we improved anyone's life?  Why are those on minimum wage trying to live on it, what is the core cause for that as a need?

So maybe we should halve the min wage instead -- since changing it does not accomplish anything.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Depends what you are raising the minimum wage TO.

Yes, if $50k, as Chicos suggests, is the new minimum wage jobs would be eliminated.

If you raise it to $10/hr, a historically average minimum wage (adjusted for inflation), and then tied it to CPI adjustments thereafter, the impact would be minimal.

Let's not forget, someone is subsidizing the working poor, one way or the other. Right now, its taxpayers through food stamp and Medicaid assistance, while companies maintain record-high profit margins. I think it would be smart to shift some of that burden back to the corporations, and away from taxpayers.

I agree that the $15 fast food workers are striking for is probably too high. But NO ONE can get by on $7.25 an hour. It is a joke. Raise it to 10.

I said $50, not $50K.

Raising the minimum wage, regardless of the amount, raises costs and those are passed on to people.  Jobs are lost because expenses go up.  Since when is a job at McDonalds DESIGNED TO SUPPORT A FAMILY?  It shouldn't be, that's the whole point.  We have so bastardized things that this is what it has become.  Keep allowing low skilled labor into the market place only adds to the problem, but hey...they vote for us so let's do it.

We reap what we sow.

[brandx]

Let's not forget, someone is subsidizing the working poor, one way or the other. Right now, its taxpayers through food stamp and Medicaid assistance, while companies maintain record-high profit margins. I think it would be smart to shift some of that burden back to the corporations, and away from taxpayers.

All we need to do is look at how much taxpayer money is going to Wal-Mart employees while the company has made the owners among the richest people in the world.

I need a good conservative to tell me why we (taxpayers) need to support and pay their workers rather than the owners of the company. The Walton family makes BILLIONS while taxpayers give their employees insurance and food stamps.

[brandx]

I said $50, not $50K.

Raising the minimum wage, regardless of the amount, raises costs and those are passed on to people.  Jobs are lost because expenses go up.  Since when is a job at McDonalds DESIGNED TO SUPPORT A FAMILY?  It shouldn't be, that's the whole point.  We have so bastardized things that this is what it has become.  Keep allowing low skilled labor into the market place only adds to the problem, but hey...they vote for us so let's do it.

We reap what we sow.

Since we have sent MILLIONS of jobs overseas - with corps. getting more welfare from the gov't for doing so.

[brandx]

I said $50, not $50K.

Raising the minimum wage, regardless of the amount, raises costs and those are passed on to people.  Jobs are lost because expenses go up.  Since when is a job at McDonalds DESIGNED TO SUPPORT A FAMILY?  It shouldn't be, that's the whole point.  We have so bastardized things that this is what it has become.  Keep allowing low skilled labor into the market place only adds to the problem, but hey...they vote for us so let's do it.

We reap what we sow.

I would venture that adding close $75 billion into the economy will increase jobs. But there is NO evidence that it will cost jobs.

[keefe]

Keefe,
I know that lingo.  You're talking kaizen & lean manufacturing with the phrase, "you free up that labor for more productive tasks."  I'm thnakful to be trained in it and am a big believer that it works.

Nutmeg

A kindred spirit! I am a huge fan of Juran and Deming. As a GE guy I live and breath Six Sigma and at Capital we applied Deming's principles to a range of activities to include Yen forex hedging operations and clinical trials.

While technological advances are cited for the productivity gains in the American workplace people involved in Kaizen know that the application of Kaizen, Juran/Deming, and Six Sigma have enabled tech adaptation and accelerated multi-dimensional productivity gains. I would love to talk about this over a beer sometime.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Since we have sent MILLIONS of jobs overseas - with corps. getting more welfare from the gov't for doing so.

Why do they send them overseas?   Highest tax rates in the industrialized world might have something to do with it.  No different than why corporations move from one state to another or why some of you drive an extra mile for cheaper gas or borrow the friend's Netflix login.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I would venture that adding close $75 billion into the economy will increase jobs. But there is NO evidence that it will cost jobs.

So if there is NO evidence that it will cost jobs, why not take it up to $50?  I'm asking a serious question....where is the inflection point where it does cost jobs?

Incidentally, to suggest there is NO evidence is just wrong.  You just choose to ignore the evidence that is out there because of who presents it.  That's called selection bias.  So let's not play the game that there is ZERO evidence.


The CBO even said it could cost 500K jobs.  Of course the administration doesn't believe it, thus you don't believe it.   All depends on WHO says it.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/02/18/cbo-minimum-wage-jobs/5582779/

[mu03eng]

All we need to do is look at how much taxpayer money is going to Wal-Mart employees while the company has made the owners among the richest people in the world.

I need a good conservative to tell me why we (taxpayers) need to support and pay their workers rather than the owners of the company. The Walton family makes BILLIONS while taxpayers give their employees insurance and food stamps.

Serious question, how much margin should a company make, what is the correct amount of money a company should make?

Second, of those jobs that the government supports in addition to Walmart paying them....what kind of jobs are they?  Do you know?  What kind of skills or abilities do they require?  If they are minimum wage I'm willing to wager than are very low skilled positions so the barriers to entry for talent is very low...no competition so no need to wage higher.

Lastly, do you think people would do the Walmart jobs if the government didn't have the assitance?  If not, remove the assistance and watch those people find a way to get a better job then Walmart, with no available pool of talent, will have to pay more.  Some of this is a chicken or the egg thing.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Nutmeg

A kindred spirit! I am a huge fan of Juran and Deming. As a GE guy I live and breath Six Sigma and at Capital we applied Deming's principles to a range of activities to include Yen forex hedging operations and clinical trials.

While technological advances are cited for the productivity gains in the American workplace people involved in Kaizen know that the application of Kaizen, Juran/Deming, and Six Sigma have enabled tech adaptation and accelerated multi-dimensional productivity gains. I would love to talk about this over a beer sometime.

[Benny B]

All we need to do is look at how much taxpayer money is going to Wal-Mart employees while the company has made the owners among the richest people in the world.

I need a good conservative to tell me why we (taxpayers) need to support and pay their workers rather than the owners of the company. The Walton family makes BILLIONS while taxpayers give their employees insurance and food stamps.

Take a cross-section of the typical Walmart shopper, and my guess is that it's going to skew towards the same socio-economic pool as the employees.

So you have disadvantaged citizens who can't help themselves from patronizing a business who disadvantages the people it employs, right?  Maybe we should just shut down Walmart altogether for the good of society?  But then, where will the most disadvantaged citizens shop?  Whole Foods?

The Waltons are making billions off of undereducated consumers who perpetuate the struggles of lower-class America simply by making the decisions they make.  You don't need a conservative or liberal to figure that out... just someone who understands the concepts of personal responsibility and free will.

[keefe]

Take a cross-section of the typical Walmart shopper

What the hell are you talking about?

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Were those taken at Midnight Madness?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I had to go to Walmart for a PS4 for Christmas...stood in line for a few hours prior to the store opening.  It was an interesting experience...enjoyed it very much.

[Benny B]

What the hell are you talking about?

Did you have these in a folder on your desktop all ready to go, or did you have to do a little research first?

I don't visit the people of Walmart website, but I love it when other people put up the photos.  At least we know the kid in the second picture isn't going to go hungry anytime soon.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Nutmeg

A kindred spirit! I am a huge fan of Juran and Deming. As a GE guy I live and breath Six Sigma and at Capital we applied Deming's principles to a range of activities to include Yen forex hedging operations and clinical trials.

While technological advances are cited for the productivity gains in the American workplace people involved in Kaizen know that the application of Kaizen, Juran/Deming, and Six Sigma have enabled tech adaptation and accelerated multi-dimensional productivity gains. I would love to talk about this over a beer sometime.

Beer?  Anytime you're in the neighborhood or NYC! 
If you want we can drag in CTWarrior & Frenn''s Liquor Depot.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The one thing you can count on is that after all these jobs are lost - the people who are out of work will be called "lazy" and "takers"

How would you classify this guy?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2568109/Unemployed-beach-bum-uses-food-stamps-eat-lobster-drives-Escalade-says-help-make-millions.html

[mu03eng]

A very solid read

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-living-wage-is-minimum-wage/

[Lennys Tap]

A very solid read

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-living-wage-is-minimum-wage/

Thanks for sharing. This debate has surely become more complex over the last decade.

[ChicosBailBonds]

More Gates

http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/17/gates-tax-consumption-to-fix-unemployment-caused-by-technology-video/

[mu03eng]

Thanks for sharing. This debate has surely become more complex over the last decade.

Agreed, which is why I get a little fired up over the raise the minimum wage solution.  I'm not against it, but the issues are a lot more nuanced than that, and if we don't tackle the underlying causes we never solve the problem and actually make things worse for those we try to help as well as those that must bear the brunt of the fix.

[Coleman]

How would you classify this guy?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2568109/Unemployed-beach-bum-uses-food-stamps-eat-lobster-drives-Escalade-says-help-make-millions.html

Chicos, you make me laugh. Thank you.

[Tugg Speedman]

Agreed, which is why I get a little fired up over the raise the minimum wage solution.  I'm not against it, but the issues are a lot more nuanced than that, and if we don't tackle the underlying causes we never solve the problem and actually make things worse for those we try to help as well as those that must bear the brunt of the fix.

Why do we think people are permanently stuck at the minimum wage?  That is a tiny percentage of those that make it.  The vast vast majority get a raise, at McDonalds that can come in 3 to 6 months if you prove capable.

It's a "starter job" wage and the higher you raise it the harder it is to get a "starter job."  Why are you against teenagers getting a job?  That is what will happen if you hike it.

Here's the dirty secret about the minimum wage.  Lots of union contracts are tied to the minimum wage (a certain job makes 200% or 250% of the minimum wage).  So, raise the minimum wage and a lot of union thugs get raises.  That is why they are pushing so hard for it.