Starting Lineup

[NersEllenson]

Was reviewing Pomroy today and just found it remarkable - what we all know - that our starting lineup is comprised of 4 guys who Pomroy defines as Limited Roles and Role Players.  Meanwhile, the one "Go to Guy" the highest rating Pomroy assigns - Deonte Burton - gets some DNP's.  "Major Contributor," Davante Gardner gets less than 30 minutes per game, and "Significant Contributor" Todd Mayo gets less than 30 minutes per game.  It's remarkable.  The guys Pomroy Defines in the lowest category "Limited Roles," Jake and Derrick get the highest percentage of minutes of any of our players - Derrick 74.9 and Jake 70.9.

At some point, why do you not just acknowledge reality and roll out:

Gardner
Jamil
Burton
Mayo
Derrick

Derrick's warts would be greatly limited if he was playing with the team's Go To, and Major Contributors....but to consistently pair him with the two lowest categories per Pomroy - it just amplifies the warts that much more.

In my view, the above lineup would give you the best combination of everything....Pomroy's data is unbelievably predictive...why ignore it any more??

[NavinRJohnson]

I'm glad to see a new thread started on this topic. It's about time it was discussed around here.

[Windyplayer]

I'm glad to see a new thread started on this topic. It's about time it was discussed around here.

The longer these silly starting line-ups are used, the more posts we'll have like these. And I'm perfectly OK with that as long as you bring in new data to highlight the lunacy of these line-ups, which Ners did.

[g0lden3agle]

Ners, could you help me understand how posession% can be used to dictate what lineups would be most effective?  The lineup you proposed currently has a collective posession% of 116.1%.  So to have those 5 out on the court all at the same time each player would generally end up with the ball less than what they are currently getting.  Isn't spreading the minutes out like we currently are allowing our main scorers (davante, jamil, mayo, to an extent burton) to get a high number of touches?

[LAMUfan]

Burton and Gardner should not play at the same time, having Burton on the floor takes Gardner out of the offense (anyone else notice that?).  Would love to see Burton start over Juan, and play all of the time that Chris is in (about 15 min).  That would give you some scoring with the "1st team", and continue Gardner's ability to score once you take Chris out. 

[willie warrior]

Burton and Gardner should not play at the same time, having Burton on the floor takes Gardner out of the offense (anyone else notice that?).  Would love to see Burton start over Juan, and play all of the time that Chris is in (about 15 min).  That would give you some scoring with the "1st team", and continue Gardner's ability to score once you take Chris out. 

Burton should be starting over Juan. Better scorer, shooter, rebounder and just as aggressive. Juan gets a slight nod on D, but not by much. Just another strange thing by Buzz, just like starting Otule over Gardner

[keefe]

Was reviewing Pomroy today and just found it remarkable - what we all know - that our starting lineup is comprised of 4 guys who Pomroy defines as Limited Roles and Role Players.  Meanwhile, the one "Go to Guy" the highest rating Pomroy assigns - Deonte Burton - gets some DNP's.  "Major Contributor," Davante Gardner gets less than 30 minutes per game, and "Significant Contributor" Todd Mayo gets less than 30 minutes per game.  It's remarkable.  The guys Pomroy Defines in the lowest category "Limited Roles," Jake and Derrick get the highest percentage of minutes of any of our players - Derrick 74.9 and Jake 70.9.

At some point, why do you not just acknowledge reality and roll out:

Gardner
Jamil
Burton
Mayo
Derrick

Derrick's warts would be greatly limited if he was playing with the team's Go To, and Major Contributors....but to consistently pair him with the two lowest categories per Pomroy - it just amplifies the warts that much more.

In my view, the above lineup would give you the best combination of everything....Pomroy's data is unbelievably predictive...why ignore it any more??

Yea, but what the hell does this Pomeroy guy know about college basketball?

[NersEllenson]

Ners, could you help me understand how posession% can be used to dictate what lineups would be most effective?  The lineup you proposed currently has a collective posession% of 116.1%.  So to have those 5 out on the court all at the same time each player would generally end up with the ball less than what they are currently getting.  Isn't spreading the minutes out like we currently are allowing our main scorers (davante, jamil, mayo, to an extent burton) to get a high number of touches?

That's a good question, and point that I can't speak to.  However, what is absolutely true is that while overall opportunities (possession %) might be reduced by 16% spread out over 4 guys (as Derrick is playing with this lineup and his usage wouldn't change), you essentially would be reducing each guy's usage 4%.  However, due to their much better efficiency than the alternative lineup - you would see a much better offensive team and Offensive Rating overall.

[bilsu]

The way Jamil has been playing, I would replace him with Burton.

[keefe]

The way Jamil has been playing, I would replace him with Burton.

No you wouldn't. We will really appreciate Jamil Wilson next year.

[jesmu84]

Does using Pomeroy in this way make assumptions? For example, Burton is listed as a go-to guy, I'm guessing based on his scoring/min, but aren't you making the assumption that his pts/min would extrapolate from his current minute usage to 20-30 minutes?

[PGsHeroes32]

The starting lineup should be

Derrick
Todd
Jake
Jamil
Chris(extremely short leash)

Get Ox and Burton in soon. Give Dawson PT when need. Steve gets a little. Juan hopefully forgets we have a game. Try and get JJJ something.

[GGGG]

Burton should be starting over Juan. Better scorer, shooter, rebounder and just as aggressive. Juan gets a slight nod on D, but not by much. Just another strange thing by Buzz, just like starting Otule over Gardner

I don't mind Burton starting over Juan.

But bringing offense off the bench in both Gardner and Mayo makes some sense.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The posession% is a misguided stat. It only gives players credit for when they score, shoot, get fouled, or turn the ball over. All the "go to guy" label means for Burton is that when he gets the ball he is going to shoot (regardless of if it's a good idea or not) or turn it over.

But, I would like 30 minutes of Gardner a game, 30 minutes of Mayo, and at least 10-15 minutes of Burton a game.

[NersEllenson]

I don't mind Burton starting over Juan.

But bringing offense off the bench in both Gardner and Mayo makes some sense.

Agree...yet just don't see why Buzz continues to pair Derrick with such an offensively challenged lineup to start the game and halves...which if he inserted Burton into Juan's place, that would help alleviate some of the issue...and could still bring Gardner off bench..

And as pointed out...there is some merit to this point...which it would help to alleviate:

Burton and Gardner should not play at the same time, having Burton on the floor takes Gardner out of the offense (anyone else notice that?).  Would love to see Burton start over Juan, and play all of the time that Chris is in (about 15 min).  That would give you some scoring with the "1st team", and continue Gardner's ability to score once you take Chris out.  

[AirPunches]

The way Jamil has been playing, I would replace him with Burton.

I think this is the change they should make. Keep everything else the same. MU could use a scorer to open games and it would keep Jamil out of foul trouble earlier. I agree with others that burton and Gardner don't work well together. Based on body language, I don't think Gardner likes playing with burton too much.

[Lennys Tap]

I think this is the change they should make. Keep everything else the same. MU could use a scorer to open games and it would keep Jamil out of foul trouble earlier. I agree with others that burton and Gardner don't work well together. Based on body language, I don't think Gardner likes playing with burton too much.

Davante is our best scorer and free throw shooter. And he's a very good passer. We need him to get lots of touches. When Deonte is in the ball stops with him. He's a dynamic and versatile scorer but he needs to learn to score within the offense a bit more.

[MU82]

Burton and Gardner should not play at the same time, having Burton on the floor takes Gardner out of the offense (anyone else notice that?). 

I have noticed it and commented on it in the past.

Gardner actually defers to Burton, moving out of the post so Burton can do his thing. It's interesting to watch.

If Burton learns a little more about shot selection, clock management and playing in control, he really is going to be a heck of an offensive player. His defense needs work, as is the case with most highly touted freshmen, but he gets lots of tips and steals that he can turn into fast-break buckets -- something we don't get a lot of. It's a trade-off.

[keefe]

Gardner actually defers to Burton, moving out of the post so Burton can do his thing. It's interesting to watch.

So they synchronize their movements? The best athletes always do.

[jesmu84]

Didn't we start DWil, JJJ, Burton, Jamil and Chris for a few games? What happened to that? I'd like to see that now for the first 4-6 minutes.

[swoopem]

Didn't we start DWil, JJJ, Burton, Jamil and Chris for a few games? What happened to that? I'd like to see that now for the first 4-6 minutes.

I'm pretty sure we got waxed by St. Johns and that was the end of that.

[4th and State]

I'm pretty sure we got waxed by St. Johns and that was the end of that.

That game eventually got out of hand, but we did get an early lead with that lineup.  I also think it was the last game JJJ got some decent minutes.

[jesmu84]

I'm pretty sure we got waxed by St. Johns and that was the end of that.

Not sure that it matters much, but the play-by-play shows we were up 6-0 and 8-3, before being tied 8-8 at the first TV timeout. THEN harrison proceeded to eviscerate us from 3. No idea when/who substituted into/out of the game

Probably also didn't help that from 15:34 to 7:24, we only scored 5 points...