The Todd Mayo Effect...and shortened rotation

[NersEllenson]

Define inconsistent.  In 12 conference games, he play 20+ minutes 10 times.  Marquette is 6-4 in that stretch.

In the two games he did not get 20+, MU was 1-1.  One being GU and the other SJU.  SJU was not Mayo's best game so we can understand why he did not get his average.

In 7 of the 12 he played 26+, MU is 5 - 2.  He only has one game above 30+ and MU is 1-0.  The majority of his conference games are between 26-29 minutes.  I would say that is fairly consistent. Of MU's 25 games, Mayo had two DNP (one injury and one suspension) so he appeared in 23 games.  He played 20+ minutes in 18 of those. 

The five were:
Grambling State - 17 minutes in a blow out so he was being protected.
CS Fullerton - 8 recovering from the sprained ankle so again limited minutes
Ball State - 9 minutes in a blow out so he was being protected
GU and SJU that I mentioned earlier. 

If you mean he isn't getting enough minutes that is another story but his minutes have been consistent. 

The argument I've made, and Hayward is making with regard to Mayo - is that basketball is a game of getting into a rhythm and flow, and some players need more time to get into a flow.  You have to look at overall skill set of a guy and determine - is he worth waiting on to get into a flow.  I don't think anyone would deny that Todd is far and away the most talented perimeter player this team has had since Day 1 of this season - He's a threat from 3, has good midrange game, and can get to the basket, and is a great FT shooter.

What some fail to realize is, is that if you get 24 minutes in a game, but it comes in 6, 4 minute stints - that isn't nearly as effective use of playing time, as getting 2, 12-minute stretches.

Buzz's crazy substitution patterns for the team this year hurt EVERYBODY..you simply cannot run guys in and out, in and out, in and out and getting any efficiency together...on the offensive or defensive side of the ball.

So, though Mayo has played 24-26 minutes in a lot of games this season, I would surmise that in many of the games he got those minutes playing 4-6 different stints of action.

Some have said Derrick and Jake have been MU's most consistent performers..or at least Derrick...and if you look at it - he is the 1 guy, and Jake a close 2nd, who has gotten consistent, long stretches of minutes...that helps to normalize performance/keep performance relatively consistent...

[connie]

I cannot remember I game I have seen that has a 12 minute stretch that is uninterrupted.  I am not rejecting your theory, just pointing out that with a time out or a tv timeout you will never have a 12 minute stretch of game time that is not stopped for a significant time.  I don't understand why breaking for the timeout would be any different than a substitution break.  I also don't see where you draw a line.  Why not five minute periods, or six?  If we see players getting long stretches of playing time without substitutions maybe they are better players, and that accounts for the perceived normalization.  I just don't see how you can account for the variables, and relying on player anecdotes that they want to play more seems suspect.

[NersEllenson]

I cannot remember I game I have seen that has a 12 minute stretch that is uninterrupted.  I am not rejecting your theory, just pointing out that with a time out or a tv timeout you will never have a 12 minute stretch of game time that is not stopped for a significant time.  I don't understand why breaking for the timeout would be any different than a substitution break.  I also don't see where you draw a line.  Why not five minute periods, or six?  If we see players getting long stretches of playing time without substitutions maybe they are better players, and that accounts for the perceived normalization.  I just don't see how you can account for the variables, and relying on player anecdotes that they want to play more seems suspect.

Of course we'll never see a 12 minute uninterrupted stint of basketball with the TV timeouts every 4 minutes...so wasn't saying in a true literal sense.  Just saying that as a player - if you ever play with fear of - "If I make 1 mistake, I'm going to get pulled," it is an awful way to play, and it breeds tightness.  Buzz generally has had a very short leash with Mayo during his whole career.  Buzz needs to accept that if you have a guy who is going to force action, go at the basket, etc. - which all good teams HAVE to have - you have to live with some turnovers, that the more aggressive style of ball will result in.

The broader point, is that if Mayo and generally any hoops player knows...I'm going to get to play through a few mistakes..it relaxs the player and they play better - as does knowing you will get a long stint of extended run.  Timeouts don't necessarily interrupt the flow...as they are a normal part of all basketball games...and they don't play head games with you....as does getting yanked in and out of a lineup at the coaches whims...that's the larger point of being allowed to get into a flow and play long durations..

[GGGG]

I cannot remember I game I have seen that has a 12 minute stretch that is uninterrupted.  I am not rejecting your theory, just pointing out that with a time out or a tv timeout you will never have a 12 minute stretch of game time that is not stopped for a significant time.  I don't understand why breaking for the timeout would be any different than a substitution break.  I also don't see where you draw a line.  Why not five minute periods, or six?  If we see players getting long stretches of playing time without substitutions maybe they are better players, and that accounts for the perceived normalization.  I just don't see how you can account for the variables, and relying on player anecdotes that they want to play more seems suspect.

Not only that, but Todd has been playing extended stretches since the beginning of the BE season.  In every game but SJU, he had at least one "shift" of at least 7:00.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/marquette/todd-mayo/plus_minus

And in some of the longer stretches, he has been bad.  In some of the shorter stretches he has been good.  Now in *most* of the longer stretches he has been good.  Does that mean that he was good because he played in longer stretches?  Or does it mean that he got to play more because he was playing well?  (Chicken and egg.)

[connie]

Of course we'll never see a 12 minute uninterrupted stint of basketball with the TV timeouts every 4 minutes...so wasn't saying in a true literal sense.  Just saying that as a player - if you ever play with fear of - "If I make 1 mistake, I'm going to get pulled," it is an awful way to play, and it breeds tightness.  Buzz generally has had a very short leash with Mayo during his whole career.  Buzz needs to accept that if you have a guy who is going to force action, go at the basket, etc. - which all good teams HAVE to have - you have to live with some turnovers, that the more aggressive style of ball will result in.

I am not sold on the premise that an extended run is the cure for any thing that ails any of our players.  I do think the above is a good point.

[GGGG]

I am not sold on the premise that an extended run is the cure for any thing that ails any of our players.  I do think the above is a good point.

But of course, there isn't much evidence to suggest that Buzz operates that way extensively.  He lets a lot of players play through mistakes.

[NersEllenson]

I am not sold on the premise that an extended run is the cure for any thing that ails any of our players.  I do think the above is a good point.

I agree with you...this won't "fix" the issues with every player on the team....a few are truly overmatched right now at this level.  But for a guy like Todd, who has a lot of talent and is not overmatched - if he pretty much knows I'm going to get to play a whole half, regardless of what happens...his talent will eventually produce good results, and he and the team will be better off for it - even if there are some mistakes, turnover, missed shots etc., in the run.

But of course, there isn't much evidence to suggest that Buzz operates that way extensively.  He lets a lot of players play through mistakes.

Of course a coach has to allow players to play through a mistake....but Buzz has had a short leash with Mayo historically, and generally with most all of his freshman throughout his tenure...at the end of the day, of course, can't complain...as he's gotten us great results....but to deny that Buzz hasn't had a short leash at times and been impatient with certain players would be false.

[Lennys Tap]

Of course a coach has to allow players to play through a mistake....but Buzz has had a short leash with Mayo historically, and generally with most all of his freshman throughout his tenure...at the end of the day, of course, can't complain...as he's gotten us great results....but to deny that Buzz hasn't had a short leash at times and been impatient with certain players would be false.

Buzz had a longer leash with Todd than with any other freshman in his 6 years here. I'm a big fan of Todd's game but his erratic behavior in the classroom and off the court set him back. To Todd's credit, he earned the trust he lost.

[NersEllenson]

Buzz had a longer leash with Todd than with any other freshman in his 6 years here. I'm a big fan of Todd's game but his erratic behavior in the classroom and off the court set him back. To Todd's credit, he earned the trust he lost.

I'd have to say Vander had a much longer leash than Todd as a freshman...given that 1) Vander's assault/battery on fellow student occurred before his freshman season started, and 2) Vander REALLY struggled as a freshman...yet Buzz continued to start him for a long time, and gave him quite a few more minutes than his play suggested he'd "earned."  I'd read Vander eventually asked for Buzz to stop starting him...as his confidence was eroding...

[Lennys Tap]

I'd have to say Vander had a much longer leash than Todd as a freshman...given that 1) Vander's assault/battery on fellow student occurred before his freshman season started, and 2) Vander REALLY struggled as a freshman...yet Buzz continued to start him for a long time, and gave him quite a few more minutes than his play suggested he'd "earned."  I'd read Vander eventually asked for Buzz to stop starting him...as his confidence was eroding...

I guess we can quibble around the edges but the fact remains that Buzz's leash grew much shorter for Todd in year 2 when he was academically ineligible for the first semester and had a behavior related suspension in the second. He was also sent home for a summer and his Mom was summoned for for a "what's wrong with Todd and does he want to fix it" meeting. I know you think none of this stuff should matter because he has talent, but that's not how Buzz rolls. And if you really like what Buzz is about you'd get that.

[GGGG]

I guess we can quibble around the edges but the fact remains that Buzz's leash grew much shorter for Todd in year 2 when he was academically ineligible for the first semester and had a behavior related suspension in the second. He was also sent home for a summer and his Mom was summoned for for a "what's wrong with Todd and does he want to fix it" meeting. I know you think none of this stuff should matter because he has talent, but that's not how Buzz rolls. And if you really like what Buzz is about you'd get that.

Not to mention that Vander's issues were pretty much limited to his first semester on campus - there wasn't a problem with class attendance, practice time, etc. 

Again, they aren't comparable. 

[NersEllenson]

I guess we can quibble around the edges but the fact remains that Buzz's leash grew much shorter for Todd in year 2 when he was academically ineligible for the first semester and had a behavior related suspension in the second. He was also sent home for a summer and his Mom was summoned for for a "what's wrong with Todd and does he want to fix it" meeting. I know you think none of this stuff should matter because he has talent, but that's not how Buzz rolls. And if you really like what Buzz is about you'd get that.

I've never said behavior related issues and conduct shouldn't matter.  What my point is, and has been, is that you are going to have Todd active, in uniform, and putting him into games - it does him, and the team a disservice to yank him in and out if he has an early turnover or two, misses a couple of shots. My point all along is that Todd is the most talented perimeter player this team has...and if you are going to have him eligible to play in a game (which of course implies Buzz deems his behavior/conduct worthy of being "playable"), you need to max his minutes and take the shackles off.

Additionally, the consequences of behavior related issues/academic troubles - have been addressed in that Todd's poor performance academically cost him a semester of eligibility (punishment), if conduct was bad and sent home and away from team (as were DJO and Jae), another punishment....and being suspended for the Wisconsin game, and I believe first half of West Virginia game for being late to practice...punishment served.

I agree with the discipline...just don't agree with if you are going to have him eligible to play....having the short leash.  The team has looked SIGNIFICANTLY better the last 3 games with Todd getting 30+, and getting to play for a whole entire 2nd half (Seton Hall), and 17 minutes straight against Xavier.