Predictors by the computer rating systems...for today's game

[ChicosBailBonds]

Since there seems to be so much confusion out there...for today's game

Sagarin Ratings predict Marquette to beat Xavier today by a little less 1 point (.63 points)

RPI, using the Sagarin Rating predictor method, predicts MU over Xavier by 1.4 points...55% chance to win

Massey predicts MU over Xavier with 51% probability to win....predicted score of 69 to 68

Team Rankings....MU with 61% chance to win today

Talisman (same as Kirkpatrick system)....MU by 1.5 to win

Dunkel Index....MU by 6.5

Roundtable index...MU by 2...71-69

Ken Pom...MU to win

Etc, etc  

There are over 40 such ratings, but not all of them have predictor components and some are only updated weekly.  I'm using those that have predictor elements and updated through last night's games.

EDIT:  To fix the Sagarin Rating from 1.23 to .63...thank you JayBee

[andymartinelli2]

Misix has MU winning by 4.2 with a 59.3% winning probability....for what its worth.

[Jay Bee]

RPI, using the Sagarin Rating predictor method, predicts MU over Xavier by 1.4 points...55% chance to win

No - that is completely made up. The RPI does NOT predict MU over Xavier by 1.4 points.

The Sagarin PREDICTOR says MU by 1.41.

RPI does nothing of the sort. Nada. You're making things up.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Misix has MU winning by 4.2 with a 59.3% winning probability....for what its worth.

Thanks...I should have included Misix.  I was going to use Cheong ratings as well, but he hasn't updated since Feb 9th so I excluded. 

I did miss another... Dokter Entropy....picks MU by 2.5

[GGGG]

Chicos, that would be like me setting up a web-site, posting the Sagarin Predictor for the game, and then you saying "Sultan says MU by 1.4."

You are being stubborn for the sake of being stubborn again.

[Jay Bee]

Since there seems to be so much confusion out there...for today's game

Sagarin Ratings predict Marquette to beat Xavier today by a little over 1 point (1.23 points)

And AGAIN, you are completely wrong. Sagarin RATINGS says MU by 0.63, NOT by 1.23.

You're using 4.0 instead of 3.4 because you're horrible with numbers.

[ChicosBailBonds]

And AGAIN, you are completely wrong. Sagarin RATINGS says MU by 0.63, NOT by 1.23.

You're using 4.0 instead of 3.4 because you're horrible with numbers.

Horrible with numbers...nah...running a $2.8 billion business every day suggests otherwise.

Did I use 4.0, yup...should I have used 3.4 instead of the example given by Sagarin in the text...yup.  My fault.  The math formula was correct, I grabbed the wrong input.  Guilty as charged.  That wasn't so hard.  Anger issues Jay Bee?

Let's recap

MU is still favored over Xavier using Sagarin rating by .63...check
MU is still favored over Xavier using Sagarin ELO rating..by .48...check
MU is still favored over Xavier using the Sagarin Predictor....by 1.41....check

XU is favored over MU using Golden Mean Sagarin rating...by .12...check

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos, that would be like me setting up a web-site, posting the Sagarin Predictor for the game, and then you saying "Sultan says MU by 1.4."

You are being stubborn for the sake of being stubborn again.

I wish I knew what you were talking about

[NersEllenson]

Surprised the line has moved all the way to Xavier +5.  Hate to bet against MU, but 5 seems generous...

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Why are people pouncing on Chicos for this harmless, FYI type post?

For the record, I don't know the line, but I'd bet MU big on this one.

[Jay Bee]

Horrible with numbers...nah...running a $2.8 billion business every day suggests otherwise.

Did I use 4.0, yup...should I have used 3.4 instead of the example given by Sagarin in the text...yup.  My fault.  The math formula was correct, I grabbed the wrong input.  Guilty as charged.  That wasn't so hard.  Anger issues Jay Bee?

Let's recap

MU is still favored over Xavier using Sagarin rating by .63...check
MU is still favored over Xavier using Sagarin ELO rating..by .48...check
MU is still favored over Xavier using the Sagarin Predictor....by 1.41....check

XU is favored over MU using Golden Mean Sagarin rating...by .12...check

Let's recap.

You have not yet admitted to falsely claiming that the Sagarin PREDICTOR is an "RPI prediction"...check.
You have made mistakes when trying to work with basic data related to other projections...check.

Since you seem to have time and enjoy pulling and/or calculating this type of information (and even though you probably will/would hose the data up), I'd be curious as to how often there are disparities between Vegas and most models in a college basketball game like this.

I think MU by 1 to 2 is a fair prediction, but with Vegas having a 5 to 7 point difference in view... seems far larger than what is normally seen.

[PGsHeroes32]

Surprised the line has moved all the way to Xavier +5.  Hate to bet against MU, but 5 seems generous...

Meh. I still look atthat is basically a straight up bet in basketball. We win or lose.

Its tough for games to go down to the buzzer. 5 points basically means close game and a couple free throws icing it.

The reason to be nervous should be more whether or not we can get the win.

[mu_hilltopper]

Sweet fancy Moses, can't we get along on game day?

Let's go, Warriors.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Let's recap.

You have not yet admitted to falsely claiming that the Sagarin PREDICTOR is an "RPI prediction"...check.
You have made mistakes when trying to work with basic data related to other projections...check.

Since you seem to have time and enjoy pulling and/or calculating this type of information (and even though you probably will/would hose the data up), I'd be curious as to how often there are disparities between Vegas and most models in a college basketball game like this.

I think MU by 1 to 2 is a fair prediction, but with Vegas having a 5 to 7 point difference in view... seems far larger than what is normally seen.

Vegas means jack, betting lines are their to entice bets...to get money action.  That's why they exist.

I'm not going to look it up, though I have a great source from a guy in another department in my division who spent the last 6 years at Caesar's doing that very thing.  If you wish, I'm happy to ask him.

The Sagarin Predictor is the Sagarin Predictor.  That's not what I said...I said the RPI using the Sagarin Predictor Method.  What RPI Forecast does is use the ACTUAL Sagarin Predictor, not RPI data.  That's NOT where I'm sourcing my comment from.

Have I made errors with data in the past...yup.  I'm a human being.  Check

You have made some wonderful predictions, data boners, etc over the years.  Check.   A few from just the last few months on your MU predictions (Villanova is overrated, New Mexico isn't very good, you still believe divorce rate is closer to 50% when actual data shows it is closer to 40%, etc, etc).   Glad to see you are a human being as well

[Jay Bee]

Vegas means jack, betting lines are their to entice bets...to get money action.  That's why they exist.

I'm not going to look it up, though I have a great source from a guy in another department in my division who spent the last 6 years at Caesar's doing that very thing.  If you wish, I'm happy to ask him.

The Sagarin Predictor is the Sagarin Predictor.  That's not what I said...I said the RPI using the Sagarin Predictor Method.  What RPI Forecast does is use the ACTUAL Sagarin Predictor, not RPI data.  That's NOT where I'm sourcing my comment from.

Have I made errors with data in the past...yup.  I'm a human being.  Check

You have made some wonderful predictions, data boners, etc over the years.  Check.   A few from just the last few months on your MU predictions (Villanova is overrated, New Mexico isn't very good, you still believe divorce rate is closer to 50% when actual data shows it is closer to 40%, etc, etc).   Glad to see you are a human being as well

1) Vegas is an excellent predictor. "Vegas means jack" is a sad, sad misstatement.
2) OK.. then please do tell us what the "RPI using the Sagarin Predictor Method" is and how you come up with 1.4 (which happens to be what a website that simply using the Sagarin PREDICTOR comes up with).
3) I still believe Villanova is overrated, New Mexico isn't very good and that the divorce rate is closer to 50% than it is to 30%. Those statements are quite different than saying, "RPI predicts MU by 1.4" when it doesn't predict anything or saying that Sagarin predicts "X" when it doesn't, it actually predicts "Y".

Everyone makes mistakes. It's just that a lot of yours are unbelievably foolish and repeated over and over and over again...

[brandx]

1) Vegas is an excellent predictor. "Vegas means jack" is a sad, sad misstatement.
2) OK.. then please do tell us what the "RPI using the Sagarin Predictor Method" is and how you come up with 1.4 (which happens to be what a website that simply using the Sagarin PREDICTOR comes up with).
3) I still believe Villanova is overrated, New Mexico isn't very good and that the divorce rate is closer to 50% than it is to 30%. Those statements are quite different than saying, "RPI predicts MU by 1.4" when it doesn't predict anything or saying that Sagarin predicts "X" when it doesn't, it actually predicts "Y".

Everyone makes mistakes. It's just that a lot of yours are unbelievably foolish and repeated over and over and over again...

Dude - you forgot your meds this morning.

[willie warrior]

Chicos, that would be like me setting up a web-site, posting the Sagarin Predictor for the game, and then you saying "Sultan says MU by 1.4."

You are being stubborn for the sake of being stubborn again.

But you never are stubborn, are you Sultan?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

1) Vegas is an excellent predictor. "Vegas means jack" is a sad, sad misstatement.
2) OK.. then please do tell us what the "RPI using the Sagarin Predictor Method" is and how you come up with 1.4 (which happens to be what a website that simply using the Sagarin PREDICTOR comes up with).
3) I still believe Villanova is overrated, New Mexico isn't very good and that the divorce rate is closer to 50% than it is to 30%. Those statements are quite different than saying, "RPI predicts MU by 1.4" when it doesn't predict anything or saying that Sagarin predicts "X" when it doesn't, it actually predicts "Y".

Everyone makes mistakes. It's just that a lot of yours are unbelievably foolish and repeated over and over and over again...

I often Chicos posts condescending, but dude take a chill pill. No reason to be such a prick to a guy just trying to promote conversation on the topic were all here to discuss.

[jsheim]

I often Chicos posts condescending, but dude take a chill pill. No reason to be such a prick to a guy just trying to promote conversation on the topic were all here to discuss.

I agree. I am new to muscoop and i like the spirited conversation about all the angles to look at MU bball...but jaybee really dude...you started hating from the get-go.

[Archies Bat]

I agree. I am new to muscoop and i like the spirited conversation about all the angles to look at MU bball...but jaybee really dude...you started hating from the get-go.

He gets a hate woodie when Chicos is on.

[MuMark]

So in summary..the computer models say the game is basically a toss up and vegas has us as a 4-5 point favorite......can we move on now?

[ChicosBailBonds]

So in summary..the computer models say the game is basically a toss up and vegas has us as a 4-5 point favorite......can we move on now?

Toss up, to slight advantage.  Vegas....Smegas....Denver Broncos celebrating their Super Bowl win based on that line.   

Off to the UCLA game, I'll have to watch MU later....Lenny might think I'm less of a fan, but prior engagement I need to attend at Pauley Pavillion.  Go Warriors.  Go Bruins. 

[g0lden3agle]

Vegas lines are set in an attempt to get even money on both sides of a bet. What the line on a game is has more to do with public perception than anything else

[Benny B]

Horrible with numbers...nah...running a $2.8 billion business every day suggests otherwise.

That's why you have to be a HS sophomore to run the cash register at McDonalds... they don't want anyone but the best and brightest running a $95B company.

[Jay Bee]

You have made some wonderful predictions, data boners, etc over the years.  Check.   A few from just the last few months on your MU predictions (Villanova is overrated, New Mexico isn't very good, you still believe divorce rate is closer to 50% when actual data shows it is closer to 40%, etc, etc).   Glad to see you are a human being as well

** Yawn **