Xavier Stat Projection

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Big game tomorrow for the Warriors. They are  at the point where pretty much every game is a must win. Below is the stat projection for the game (the average performance you can expect out of each player based on performance on the road, in the last 5 games, and against similar defenses).

Team: Xavier Musketeers
Starters:
1: Dee Davis 6-0 161 JR
2: Semaj Christon 6-3 190 SO
3: Justin Martin 6-6 205 JR
4: Isaih Philmore 6-8 230 SR
5: Matt Stainbrook 6-10 263 JR
Reserves:
Myles Davis 6-2 195 FR
James Farr 6-9 237 SO
Brandon Randolph 6-1 190 FR
Jalen Reynolds 6-9 222 FR
Erik Stenger 6-8 207 SR

Stat Projection:
Player   Minutes   Points   Rebounds   Assists   Blocks   Steals   Fouls   Turnovers   3PM   3PA
Christon   36   18   3   4   0   1   1   2   1   1
D Davis   33   6   3   5   0   1   2   2   1   3
Stainbrook   27   11   9   2   1   0   3   2   0   0
Martin   25   13   4   1   0   1   3   2   2   4
Philmore   24   8   6   1   0   0   3   1   0   0
M Davis   19   5   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   4
Farr   12   5   3   0   1   0   2   1   1   2
Randolph   11   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   1
Reynolds   8   3   3   0   0   0   2   0   0   0
Stenger   5   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0
Totals   200   72   34   15   2   3   19   12   6   15

Team: Marquette

Stat Projection:
Player   Minutes   Points   Rebounds   Assists   Blocks   Steals   Fouls   Turnovers   3PM   3PA
D Wilson   32   5   3   6   0   2   2   2   0   0
Gardner   28   17   6   1   0   0   2   1   0   1
Thomas   27   5   3   1   0   0   3   1   1   5
J Wilson   27   12   6   2   0   0   3   1   2   4
Mayo   25   12   3   2   0   1   2   2   1   3
Otule   16   4   3   0   1   0   2   1   0   0
Burton   11   6   2   1   0   1   2   0   0   0
Taylor   10   1   3   0   0   0   1   1   0   1
Johnson   9   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   1
Anderson   8   1   2   0   0   1   1   1   0   0
Dawson   7   2   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   1
Total   200   67   33   14   1   5   21   11   4   16

Interesting Observations:
Jake Thomas has "negative home court advantage." He is 3-23 from 3 at home against quality opponents.

Derrick Wilson is averaging 7 points and 6 assists over the last 5 games.

We can expect some "good Mayo" this game. He is averaging way above his season average in all three of the categories (@home, last 5, and similar defenses).

Stainbrook struggles against similar defenses

Farr has torched defenses similar to Marquette's...but has really dropped off in the last 5 games.

Summary
The stat projection favors the Musketeers by 5.  But games are not played on paper. The stat projection also has no way to account for changes in rotations. PT seems to think that Buzz has his team "figured out" now. Let's hope they are right. If the Warriors are going to win they must keep Stainbrook off the glass and deny Christon from getting the ball.

Ring Out Ahoya!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Comparing the final box score to the stat projection shows that the SP was right on for Xavier but very wrong about the Warriors. Let's look at Xavier first:

What SP predicted:
72 points, 34 boards, 15 assists, 2 blocks, 3 steals, 19 fouls, 12 TOs, 6-15 from 3

What Xavier actually got:
72 points, 32 boards, 16 assists, 1 block, 3 steals, 22 fouls, 19 TOs, 5-12 from 3

Besides the 7 extra TOs, the Musketeers pretty much played up to expectations. They received above average performances from Martin, M Davis, and Reynolds. This was unfortunately countered by duds from their stars Christon, D Davis, and Stainbrook.

The Warriors on the other hand exceeded expectations.

What SP Predicted:
67 points, 33 rebounds, 14 assists, 1 block, 5 steals, 21 fouls, 11 turnovers, 4-16 from 3

What MU actually got:
81 points, 20 rebounds, 17 assists, 0 blocks, 10 steals, 19 fouls, 5 turnovers, 9-18 from 3

The Warrior were all over the board. 14 extra points, 13 less boards, double the steals, and twice as good from 3 than expected. Marquette's bench (Burton, Johnson, Anderson, and Dawson) produced below their expected numbers but the trio of Derrick, Jake, and Jamil produced way more than expected. Davante performing up to expectations also helped.

All in all, great win. The new rotations seem to be helping. Bring on the Blue Jays!