RPI what if...basically from an RPI perspective only lose 2 more max

[ChicosBailBonds]

If we go 7-1 with the one loss at Villanova, we finish with a 46 RPI.  That's a 20-11 record going into the BET.  

If we go 7-1 with the one loss at home to Creighton....Same, 46 RPI, 20-11 record into BET.

If we go 6-2 with losses to Creighton and Nova....56 RPI, 19-12 into BET

Here's where it gets tricky...if we go 5-3 but that third loss is to Providence, DePaul or Seton Hall, 67 RPI.  If we lose to Xavier or G'Town, 68 RPI.  If the third loss is to St. John's, 69 RPI.

Basically, you lose 3 more games and its over.  You lose 2 more games, it is possible but a 57 is bubble city in a huge way.  Even a 46 isn't safely in, but statistically much better over the years.

There are obviously many other combinations...say we actually beat Nova and Creighton but lost to G'Town and Xavier...our RPI would be 59...as an example.


Again, just from an RPI perspective...many things go into selecting teams. Its just a tool, but it correlates nicely over the years with what teams are actually picked as a predictor.

[PGsHeroes32]

Good stuff. But I honestly don't see how they leave out a 11-7 BE team.

Especially considering that more than likely the 2 losses the rest of the way are not X and Providence.

Assuming they are not to those two we would be 1-1 vs X and win the head to head with Providence and probably have a better conference record then both.

They are not taking only 2 BE teams.

Obviously going 6-2 is very, very unlikely. But we get in with it.

[jesmu84]

Do BET win/losses count toward RPI? If so, how much could those swing our RPI?

[Badgerhater]

Just win and finish in 3rd place.  The rest takes care of itself.   But best to insure the deal by playing to the seed in the conference tournament.   Finish 4th or less, then better win a game above the seeding.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Good stuff. But I honestly don't see how they leave out a 11-7 BE team.

Somewhere I have the data of what teams have been left out from major conferences with stellar conference records.  I just need to dig it up.  On the flip side, also the data that shows teams that got in with poor conference records (7-11) but did enough outside of conference to make it.  Florida was 6-10 in conference and made it in 1998 as an example.

I can tell you that there have been schools with 23 wins from a major conference that got left out.  Virginia Tech was the latest a 23-8 a few years back.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Do BET win/losses count toward RPI? If so, how much could those swing our RPI?

Yes, they count.  Depends a bit on who we play because a game against St. John's, for example, would be considered a road game.  The other games would be considered neutral games.

[MerrittsMustache]

Good stuff. But I honestly don't see how they leave out a 11-7 BE team.

Especially considering that more than likely the 2 losses the rest of the way are not X and Providence.

Assuming they are not to those two we would be 1-1 vs X and win the head to head with Providence and probably have a better conference record then both.

They are not taking only 2 BE teams.

Obviously going 6-2 is very, very unlikely. But we get in with it.

Why is it "very, very unlikely" that MU goes 6-2? I realize that the team has been inconsistent but which 3 teams on the schedule do you basically consider unbeatable?

[PGsHeroes32]

Why is it "very, very unlikely" that MU goes 6-2? I realize that the team has been inconsistent but which 3 teams on the schedule do you basically consider unbeatable?

Honestly? Only at Nova.

But as so many have pointed out what shows that we are capable of winning at least 2 more road games? Assuming we win out at home?

None of these teams are unbeatable but considering our lose one win one pattern it's tough to see. So we have 1 game I simply do not see us winning but honestly no games I cannot see us losing.

I mean jeez if we just execute against Butler(road game) and Nova we could be sitting pretty right now but that is how this team has been.

[brandx]

Why is it "very, very unlikely" that MU goes 6-2? I realize that the team has been inconsistent but which 3 teams on the schedule do you basically consider unbeatable?

Seriously you need to watch one of our games.

[MarquetteDano]

Why is it "very, very unlikely" that MU goes 6-2? I realize that the team has been inconsistent but which 3 teams on the schedule do you basically consider unbeatable?

This is like Pomeroy who predicts individual games where it says you will go 7-0 by each game but his predictive model says 6-1 since he figures you will be upset one time.

Yes other than Nova, nothing is a guaranteed loss.  However, my "predictive model" says we go 5-3.  We are just too inconsistent to go 6-2.

And man do I hope I'm wrong.  

[MerrittsMustache]

But as so many have pointed out what shows that we are capable of winning at least 2 more road games? Assuming we win out at home?

Touche.

[LAZER]

If we go 7-1 with the one loss at Villanova, we finish with a 46 RPI.  That's a 20-11 record going into the BET.  

If we go 7-1 with the one loss at home to Creighton....Same, 46 RPI, 20-11 record into BET.


Basically, you lose 3 more games and its over.  You lose 2 more games, it is possible but a 57 is bubble city in a huge way.  Even a 46 isn't safely in, but statistically much better over the years.

I think an RPI of 46 and a finish of 7-1 would safely get MU in, assuming they take care of business in the BET.  I think that scenario would jump MU in front of quite a few teams floating around the bubble right now.

[MarsupialMadness]

What's the RPI if we go 8-0?

[LAZER]

What's the RPI if we go 8-0?

36

[MarsupialMadness]

I'd love to see us go 6-2 over the final 8... I'm not sure I can see us doing it though.  The optimist in me is going to hope it happens... but this team, as we all know, has been very, very frustrating all year.

It's certainly a credit to our teams of the recent years, but this current team has really made me realize how hard it is to win games on the road.  I feel like we as a fanbase have been spoiled with our last couple teams, because I never had as much fear about road games as I do now.  Before, I wouldn't even worry about a game @ #2UCONN or @ #10WV because I knew we could go in and give it a good fight.  Now I look at games @ Seton Hall and I will consider ourselves lucky to stick in the game.

This team has been back and forth all season long, but hopefully our latest win will help propel us on a run to finish the season off.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think an RPI of 46 and a finish of 7-1 would safely get MU in, assuming they take care of business in the BET.  I think that scenario would jump MU in front of quite a few teams floating around the bubble right now.

I agree. 7-1 and 46 RPI and MU is in easily, and not in Dayton, for sure. But it goes downhill quickly. I wouldn't feel confident at 6-2 without two wins in the Big East Tourney.

I think it comes down to that this team needs to LOOK like a tournament team the next month. Every year the committee mentions that they picked one team over another because they have been playing much better basketball and are definitely one of the top 40+ teams RIGHT NOW.  Marquette needs to be one of the best 40 teams in the land come mid-March. A few convincing wins and at least one upset of Villanova or Creighton is probably necessary (inclucing BET).

I think most of us can agree that this team has just not looked the look this year - and that doesn't mean they still don't have chance, but there needs still be serious improvement.

[ChicosBailBonds]

36

Correct

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Good stuff, Chicos!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Thanks Chicos. Good stuff.

Here's hoping for 8-0!

[ChicosBailBonds]

Wish I could take credit for it....its out there on the internet by people much smarter than I.  I simply entered the results to get the data, that's the easy part.

Here's to 8-0

[JakeBarnes]

But what are we on the proprietary ESPN BPI?!?!?

[Jay Bee]

If we go 7-1 with the one loss at Villanova, we finish with a 46 RPI.  That's a 20-11 record going into the BET.  

If we go 7-1 with the one loss at home to Creighton....Same, 46 RPI, 20-11 record into BET.

Complete nonsense. The RPI Wizard is broken.

The path is 6-2 and win one, maybe two in the Big East tourney. Who the 6 are would matter from a qualitative perspective... where would matter for RPI.

[79Warrior]

Seriously you need to watch one of our games.

That is funny..

[LloydMooresLegs]

Thanks, Chicos!

[IrwinFletcher]

Count me as someone who thinks we will have trouble beating DePaul on the road.  And St Johns at home.  And Providence on the road.  And Villanova on the road.  And Creighton at home.

At this point, I think we finish up at 9-9 in conference.