Final 10

[willie warrior]

@SJU - bottom feeder, win.
@Seton Hall - Tougher game, but even KenPom says we'll win.
@DePaul - C'mon.  It's DePaul .. KenPom winner again.
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - We just beat these guys by 11.  We can do that again.

4-1.

While I like the optimism, it is also possible the following occurs:
@SJ--we squeak by/or get squeaked by
@SH: We barely won at home, lose there
@DePaul: It is not the old DePaul, we could go down
@Nova: We get our ass kicked, but we have always played well @Nova, so we squeak it out
@Prov: They do not have an abysmal first half, and play like they did against Creighton and Xavier-we lose.
1-4 or 2-3. 3-2 would be great.

[MarquetteDano]

The homer in me wants to agree with you.

But the realist in me thinks we go 7-3 over the final 10...losing at Nova, Creighton at home, and one other game (X at home or @Providence most likely).....finish 19-12 (11-7). 1-1 at the Big East tourney. 20-13. We are one of the last 4 out. Make a little NIT run and mercifully end a forgettable season. Buzz still gets 21 or 22 wins to his record with the NIT run.

I hope I'm wrong.

This is probably more realistic than going 9-1 in final ten.  However a suprise upset in the BET could sneak us in, with prob going to Dayton with win then crushed in the second round

[madtownwarrior]

If Buzz is expanding the playing time of younger guys and would lesson the Thomas time, I would move off my original .500 in the BE projection to 10-8.

@SJU - Win
Butler - Win
@Seton Hall - Loss
Xavier - Win
Creighton - Loss
@DePaul - Win
GTown - Win
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - Loss
SJU - Win

I do think MU will make a strong run in  he BE tourney, needing to win it to make the tourney.   However, loses on last second three by McDermott in the finals.   Oh the agony, irony of MU BBall...

[wardle2wade]

If MU goes 12-6 (8-2) rest of the way, they're in even if they lose to two of the three big games (Creighton, Nova, X).

[Dreadman24]

I do think MU will make a strong run in  he BE tourney, needing to win it to make the tourney.   However, loses on last second three by McDermott in the finals.   Oh the agony, irony of MU BBall...




[/quote]

+1000

[LloydMooresLegs]

So 4-1 on the road the rest of the way.  Not sure I'm ready to drink that tasty Kool-Aid. 

Lloyd, doable?

Let's see.

12-9 w 10 left to play.  21-10?  Doable.

[willie warrior]

Just going to play devil's advocate 

Do we make the tournament if we go 12-6? 11-7?

No.

[brandx]

You're probably right. 13-5 could put MU anywhere from 3 to 6. Oddly, they might be better off at 6 and getting a shot at NCAA-bound Xavier as opposed to being the 3 and playing 6-seeded NIT-bound Seton Hall.

Numbers don't work that way.

!3-5 cannot finish 6th in the conference. Period.

[brandx]

If MU goes 12-6 (8-2) rest of the way, they're in even if they lose to two of the three big games (Creighton, Nova, X).

This ain't the old Big East. That would easily get you in in that conference - probably not in the new BE. Especially when you may only have 1 or 2 wins the entire season over tournament teams (and probably not over ANY top 5 seeds.

[MarquetteDano]

This ain't the old Big East. That would easily get you in in that conference - probably not in the new BE. Especially when you may only have 1 or 2 wins the entire season over tournament teams (and probably not over ANY top 5 seeds.

If we go 12-6 we will have more than 1 or 2 wins over tourney teams.  That will mean two wins over Providence (bubble team), George Washington (in right now), Creighton (in), and Xavier (in).  That is five wins.  And that is before the BET where we could conceivably rack up more.

[brandx]

If we go 12-6 we will have more than 1 or 2 wins over tourney teams.  That will mean two wins over Providence (bubble team), George Washington (in right now), Creighton (in), and Xavier (in).  That is five wins.  And that is before the BET where we could conceivably rack up more.

I don't expect Providence to get in. They had a ice little run, but they were all home games. The only road game - they barely eked out in OT over st. Johns.

What we have going for us is that there are a lot of bubble teams. And I don't think Buzz will use the same substitution pattern against the better teams in the conference. We saw last night in the 2nd half, Jake and Derrick were on the floor almost the entire final 15 minutes. Derrick was even on the floor with 1:30 to go when they had to foul.

[wardle2wade]

This ain't the old Big East. That would easily get you in in that conference - probably not in the new BE. Especially when you may only have 1 or 2 wins the entire season over tournament teams (and probably not over ANY top 5 seeds.

When I said the two losses came from Creighton, Nova, or X, that means we would get at least one win over X, Creighton, or Nova.  Obviously Nova/Creighton are top 3 seeds, and I believe X won't be worse than a top 5 seed. 

I don't think people truly realize how weak the bubble teams are in today's times.. with 68 teams, it's not nearly as tough as it used to be.  According to BracketMatrix (comprehensive of lots of bracketologists), the "First Four Out" are St Marys, Richmond (14-7), LSU, and Arkansas... "Next Four Out" is Louisiana Tech, BYU (14-9), Boise State, and Mississippi.  Check their resumes and they aren't stellar.

Also, the Big East is rated better than every one of those bubble team's conferences... we have more opportunity for resume-improving wins regardless of whether or not we are in the old Big East.

Under the pretense of MU 12-6 in conference (8-2 rest of way), MU is very likely in.  I hope we can pull it off.

[MarquetteDano]

I don't expect Providence to get in. They had a ice little run, but they were all home games. The only road game - they barely eked out in OT over st. Johns.

What we have going for us is that there are a lot of bubble teams. And I don't think Buzz will use the same substitution pattern against the better teams in the conference. We saw last night in the 2nd half, Jake and Derrick were on the floor almost the entire final 15 minutes. Derrick was even on the floor with 1:30 to go when they had to foul.

Staying out of the who should play argument.  I am just saying that if we go 12-6 our resume will look pretty good.  I still think we would need to win at least one BET game as well.  Maybe two.

The problem is I don't think we will go 12-6.  I think 11-7 is more likely.  With that we MUST get to the BET championship game with a neutral court win over Creighton or Nova preferably.

[brandx]

Staying out of the who should play argument.  I am just saying that if we go 12-6 our resume will look pretty good.  I still think we would need to win at least one BET game as well.  Maybe two.

The problem is I don't think we will go 12-6.  I think 11-7 is more likely.  With that we MUST get to the BET championship game with a neutral court win over Creighton or Nova preferably.

With 11-7, we have to win the BET!! If you look at Lunardi's brackets, Marquette is not even in the top 83 teams right now. That's a lot of ground to make up. We absolutely must beat G'Town to have any chance. they are ahead of us on the bubble as is ASU who we already lost to.

[mu03eng]

I'm going with my podcast partners opinion, this team has a propensity for being average and no reason to believe otherwise.  With that Creighton, @Nova are "definite" losses, Xavier is a maybe loss, everything else is winnable.  That puts us at 7-3.....11-7 in conference.  Would have to win at least 2 in the Big East to have a shot at the bubble.

This team is definitely out at 6-5 or less, likely out at 7-3, maybe in at 8-2, probably in at 9-1, definitely in at 10-0

[brandx]

I'm going with my podcast partners opinion, this team has a propensity for being average and no reason to believe otherwise.  With that Creighton, @Nova are "definite" losses, Xavier is a maybe loss, everything else is winnable.  That puts us at 7-3.....11-7 in conference.  Would have to win at least 2 in the Big East to have a shot at the bubble.

This team is definitely out at 6-5 or less, likely out at 7-3, maybe in at 8-2, probably in at 9-1, definitely in at 10-0

Good call

[JTBMU7]

I'm going with my podcast partners opinion, this team has a propensity for being average and no reason to believe otherwise.  With that Creighton, @Nova are "definite" losses, Xavier is a maybe loss, everything else is winnable.  That puts us at 7-3.....11-7 in conference.  Would have to win at least 2 in the Big East to have a shot at the bubble.

This team is definitely out at 6-5 or less, likely out at 7-3, maybe in at 8-2, probably in at 9-1, definitely in at 10-0

agreed. not sure what anyone saw last night that was any different from how we've played all year (good for one half, bad for another, HUGE offensive lulls, no 3pt shooting...)

i fully expect we will finish .500 in conf, maybe a game above. not sure how we'll get there - could win/lose any of our remaining games by 100 and it wouldnt surprise me...

one thing i am interested to see however, is how we fare again teams the second time around? how do we adjust to creighton, xavier and butler (how the F did we lose to butler???) - and how do SHU, Depaul and Prov play against us at their places. I think that's the mark of a good coach, plus it's tough to beat any team multiple times in one year - which is why, as i stated above, i think any expectation of finishing better than .500 is misguided.

[brandx]

agreed. not sure what anyone saw last night that was any different from how we've played all year (good for one half, bad for another, HUGE offensive lulls, no 3pt shooting...)

i fully expect we will finish .500 in conf, maybe a game above. not sure how we'll get there - could win/lose any of our remaining games by 100 and it wouldnt surprise me...

one thing i am interested to see however, is how we fare again teams the second time around? how do we adjust to creighton, xavier and butler (how the F did we lose to butler???) - and how do SHU, Depaul and Prov play against us at their places. I think that's the mark of a good coach, plus it's tough to beat any team multiple times in one year - which is why, as i stated above, i think any expectation of finishing better than .500 is misguided.

Good post. I put our chance of getting in at under 20%

[BM1090]

8-2 we get in. I'd be willing to bet on that. Charity, case of beer, whatever. Now whether this team can actually go 8-2 is another question......we'll see.

[IrwinFletcher]

Wow. I'm sober, so here is how I think it will play out.

@SJU - L (they are too quick for us despite their poor coaching and discipline)
Butler - W
@Seton Hall - L
Xavier - W
Creighton - L (going to be real close but we lose at the end)
@DePaul - W ( but just barely)
Gtown - W (again, just barely)
@Nova - L (blowout)
@Prov - L (that is a good team)
STJ - W ( a tight one.  We don't match up well with them)

5-5, with maybe a chance at 6-4.  17-14 and 9-9 in the conference.

@SJU - Win
Butler - Win
@Seton Hall - Win
Xavier - Win
Creighton - Big Win
@DePaul - Win
GTown - Win
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - Win
SJU - Win

9-1.  Final record .. 13-5

[BCHoopster]

St. Johns will not be easy, one win at a time. they are very athletic, much more than MU, better get this one first.  Still trying to figure out how they lost to Butler, worst team in the conference.  That loss is a big loss.  MU can go 9-1 but I think 5-5 is just as attainable, they showed there Jeykll and Hyde offense yesterday, can not go 6 minutes without scoring, Jake
has to hit some open shots, he had great looks in the second half and made none.

[JTBMU7]

agreed. not sure what anyone saw last night that was any different from how we've played all year (good for one half, bad for another, HUGE offensive lulls, no 3pt shooting...)

i fully expect we will finish .500 in conf, maybe a game above. not sure how we'll get there - could win/lose any of our remaining games by 100 and it wouldnt surprise me...

one thing i am interested to see however, is how we fare again teams the second time around? how do we adjust to creighton, xavier and butler (how the F did we lose to butler???) - and how do SHU, Depaul and Prov play against us at their places. I think that's the mark of a good coach, plus it's tough to beat any team multiple times in one year - which is why, as i stated above, i think any expectation of finishing better than .500 is misguided.

Essentially what I am saying is that I think we are good enough to win every game, and at the same time, inconsistent enough to lose every one as well. My "x-factor" is whether or not Buzz has some tricks up his sleeve when we start repeating opponents. Could improve my projection a bit, but not by much....

[4everwarriors]

I have yet to exorcise the memory of traveling down to Allstate on 1/20/2010 in an ice storm only to have an awful DePaul team rip my heart out with 7/10 of a second left. There are no gimmes on the road. 

But I'd rather read about going 4-1 on the road than another Derrick thread.

Is that the game Chet Coppock got his lights punched out?

[77ncaachamps]

This SJU game is a turning point.

But this season seems to be filled with turning points: Georgetown, Nova, Providence, now SJU.

[brandx]

This SJU game is a turning point.

But this season seems to be filled with turning points: Georgetown, Nova, Providence, now SJU.

Beating the last place team in the conference is a turning point?? You got some 'splainin' to do.