[Cracked Sidewalks]How one minute and 13 seconds of play can pollute expectations months later

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

How one minute and 13 seconds of play can pollute expectations months later

I've stopped and started writing this blog entry probably five times in the last six months, but after reading OnMilwaukee's story today about MU and time running out, it seemed now of never.  There were some quotes in that article from Buzz Williams that were dead on right.  He may have said them back in the day and people just ignored them, or felt it was Buzz just being a coach and lowering expectations.  People should have paid more attention, the media especially.

Let's start first by taking a look back.  Last year was a special year in MU basketball lore.  Our first Big East regular season championship, a trip to the Elite 8 to cap a three year run of Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite 8 performances.  That's a resume that 98% of schools across the country would sign up for right now.  As a result, the expectations for the 2013-2014 season were more of the same.  MU was moving to a slightly watered down, but still very solid Big East.  Back were two senior big men men, the backup PG, a talented but engimatic Todd Mayo, and a loaded freshmen recruiting class.  Supposed to be back was a super talented Vander Blue, but he decided to pursue his NBA dreams.  Despite Blue's departure, the loss of their starting PG and young inexperienced newcomers, MU was picked to win the Big East this year.  

Why?

Appears Buzz correctly identified why...because we had won in the past and why the hell wouldn't it continue?    "They <fans and="" media=""> don't know who's on our team. If you look at our team, who's on our team? Who's on our team that's really had elite level success? The reason we're being picked is because of what was previously accomplished." </fans>

I would take it one step further and not just focus on what was accomplished previously, but how razor thin the accomplishment happened at all.  In the last one minute and 13 seconds of the Davidson game in the NCAA Tournament MU needed almost divine intervention to come away with a win.  EVERYTHING had to go right for the Warriors AND they needed Davidson to make a big mistake.  It happened.  Davidson played well down the stretch, only missed one free throw, made other shots, made free throws, but also watched MU hit three consecutive three pointers that they couldn't make the first 39 minutes.  Then the big turnover by Davidson, the refs stopping the game to review to give MU a free timeout, and the Vander layup for the win.  Pretty incredible, some would call lucky.  Buzz described the advancement as a situation we are lucky to be in.  

Regardless of your interpretation of the end of the Davidson game, what if it didn't happen?  Say MU misses just one of those three pointers?  Davidson makes their free throw and doesn't turn it over?  Vander's kiss falls short?  Say we didn't win that game, went down as a three seed in the first game.  Would expectations be different this year?  Would MU be chosen to win the Big East?  Would Vander Blue have left?

If Buzz is right and we were picked to win the Big East and all the expectations that go with it due to past accomplishments then it seems if that most recent accomplishment was wiped out in a stunning upset loss, expectations would have changed.  For the record, I think he is right and we were picked based on the past, not what we have which is a youthful team that is inconsistent and struggles at times at the guard positions.  It goes to show that the line is razor thin.  The ball bouncing a foot closer to the Davidson player likely means we lose, expectations are lowered, this season is viewed differently as more of the rebuilding year it really is.

A chance to watch that last one minute and 13 seconds again below and perhaps in your minds wonder if it didn't happen, would you view this year differently?  Just as if the Final Four didn't happen in 2003, would you view the immediate years to follow differently?   Expectations can get grossly out of whack based on a mere play or even 73 seconds of action.

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Source: How one minute and 13 seconds of play can pollute expectations months later

[willie warrior]

Sorry--not buying the excuses here. We Have a youthful team?: Otule 6th year senior; Ja. Wilson 5th year senior; Thomas 5th year senior; Gardner senior; De. Wilson Jr. who has seen significant minutes-- all starting. That is not a youthful team--it is one of the most seasoned teams in the country--probably the most seasoned. Add in Anderson, a Jr., Mayo another Jr.--you have a very experienced team. That is just as much a reason to have high expectations this year than you saying the expectations were based on the razor thin margin of what has been done in the past.

These are all Buzz players; 8th highest BB budget in country; great facilities; a jet to recruit, and a huge salary, probably in the top 3 of BEast.

All of the above says we should be doing a hell of a lot better than 11-9 and 3-4 in conference. Maybe not Elite 8, but significantly better than where we are at. Buzz "Who is on out team that has had elite level success?" Who the hell are the 7 players mentioned above?

Thanks for the excuses and cover! Cracked--you can do better than this whitewash.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Blame me, I wrote the article.

I think they are youthful in key spots, that would have been a better way to write it. 


On the rest of the stuff, all programs go through some of this stuff.  UNC this year is another example.  UK last year.  My points were several:

1) As good as Buzz has been, he isn't infallible and I think this was an awakening for some
2) Last year we so easily could have been one and done and the expectations (and worship level) would have changed a lot.  Perspective is key.  Razor thin.  Even the great teams often have games that they are not so dominant.
3) Fans, media especially, just assume what you did in the past continues in the future without actually looking at the makeup of the team or understating the key at the most important positions

[jesmu84]

Blame me, I wrote the article.

I think they are youthful in key spots, that would have been a better way to write it. 


On the rest of the stuff, all programs go through some of this stuff.  UNC this year is another example.  UK last year.  My points were several:

1) As good as Buzz has been, he isn't infallible and I think this was an awakening for some
2) Last year we so easily could have been one and done and the expectations (and worship level) would have changed a lot.  Perspective is key.  Razor thin.  Even the great teams often have games that they are not so dominant.
3) Fans, media especially, just assume what you did in the past continues in the future without actually looking at the makeup of the team or understating the key at the most important positions

Well said Chic

[JTBMU7]

I agree that the overall success the past three seasons has somewhat spoiled us as fans. But to say that we would have viewed this season differently based on one ncaa tourney loss is a bit of a stretch... We also won the conference, beat Bucky, as well about 6 other really solid teams last season. So I don't buy that losing to a very under seeded Davidson team, who was widely picked to upset MU, would have drastically changed expectations for this year.

Georgetown lost in an upset in the first round, but they were picked to contend with us for the conference title. Would they have been picked ahead of us had they beaten FGCU and lost to Florida or Mich? We were picked to do well because we have a deep, talented, experienced, well coached team, and were headed into an unknown conference without a clear front runner.

The bottom line is our x-factors have just not materialized into anything that helps us win.
Lots of disappointing teams this year, we just unfortunately happen to be one of them....

[MU82]

Blame me, I wrote the article.

I think they are youthful in key spots, that would have been a better way to write it. 


On the rest of the stuff, all programs go through some of this stuff.  UNC this year is another example.  UK last year.  My points were several:

1) As good as Buzz has been, he isn't infallible and I think this was an awakening for some
2) Last year we so easily could have been one and done and the expectations (and worship level) would have changed a lot.  Perspective is key.  Razor thin.  Even the great teams often have games that they are not so dominant.
3) Fans, media especially, just assume what you did in the past continues in the future without actually looking at the makeup of the team or understating the key at the most important positions

The end to the Davidson game and the ensuing run to the Elite Eight had little affect on my expectations for this year's team.

I was very concerned about the PG situation and said so in many offseason posts (and was lambasted as a negative nelly by some), but I did think we had enough up front and enough talent coming in for us to put together a good record in a less-star-studded Big East.

If anything, the incoming recruits affected my expectations far more than last year's run did. I thought Duane would be the play-making PG any good team needs and at worst split time with Derrick. And I thought the heralded JJJ would compete with Mayo for minutes at the 2 -- especially after Buzz repeatedly sang his praises. Oh, and I NEVER thought Jake would be playing even half as many minutes as he has.

If you had told me back in September that Duane would sit out the entire season, that Derrick Wilson would be averaging 30 mpg while half of Scoopdom would be arguing that a non-top-150 freshman should be the starting PG ... and that JJJ would be no factor at all while Jake played the vast majority of minutes at the 2 ... I'm pretty sure I would have downgraded my prediction.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I agree that the overall success the past three seasons has somewhat spoiled us as fans. But to say that we would have viewed this season differently based on one ncaa tourney loss is a bit of a stretch... We also won the conference, beat Bucky, as well about 6 other really solid teams last season. So I don't buy that losing to a very under seeded Davidson team, who was widely picked to upset MU, would have drastically changed expectations for this year.

Georgetown lost in an upset in the first round, but they were picked to contend with us for the conference title. Would they have been picked ahead of us had they beaten FGCU and lost to Florida or Mich? We were picked to do well because we have a deep, talented, experienced, well coached team, and were headed into an unknown conference without a clear front runner.

The bottom line is our x-factors have just not materialized into anything that helps us win.
Lots of disappointing teams this year, we just unfortunately happen to be one of them....

Ok, but I would add this.  How often here or elsewhere among MU fans do you hear.....ELITE 8 thrown out immediately in defense of the team, coach, etc?  Or Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite 8?  I hear it a lot.  It's a source of pride, why wouldn't we.

Now take that away.....lose to Davidson.  How does that change things?  Are you having a few more doubts about this year's team?  Or are you assuming because of Elite 8 last year, that Buzz will just find a way...he always does....look, we were Elite 8 last year.   See where I'm going with this?  If MU can go to the Elite 8 with that team, well surely they can be every bit as good with two top bigs and a freshman class that hasn't been seen at MU in almost a decade....surely.  You get the idea.

Expectations get rooted, often, based on what you did not what you have.  Like it's never going to end.  I saw it at IU to a point I wanted to scream....and yes, it still exists there today, but some of it was finally cleansed.  It's good to have expectations, don't get me wrong.  It's good to have that in your program to want to expect to win all the time.  It just doesn't always work out that way.

[PGsHeroes32]

Honestly its due to the last 3 years that I havn't completely flipped my crap.

It's hard to not trust Buzz but he is not pushing any buttons even remotely correctly this year.

Had we lost to Davidson I think I and most would have more ammo actually for the continued lineup we play.

[MU82]

Ok, but I would add this.  How often here or elsewhere among MU fans do you hear.....ELITE 8 thrown out immediately in defense of the team, coach, etc?  Or Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite 8?  I hear it a lot.  It's a source of pride, why wouldn't we.

Now take that away.....lose to Davidson.  How does that change things?  Are you having a few more doubts about this year's team?  Or are you assuming because of Elite 8 last year, that Buzz will just find a way...he always does....look, we were Elite 8 last year.   See where I'm going with this?  If MU can go to the Elite 8 with that team, well surely they can be every bit as good with two top bigs and a freshman class that hasn't been seen at MU in almost a decade....surely.  You get the idea.

Expectations get rooted, often, based on what you did not what you have.  Like it's never going to end.  I saw it at IU to a point I wanted to scream....and yes, it still exists there today, but some of it was finally cleansed.  It's good to have expectations, don't get me wrong.  It's good to have that in your program to want to expect to win all the time.  It just doesn't always work out that way.

I occasionally throw out s16-S16-E8 to defend Buzz in general (as opposed to defend every decision he makes) because S16-S16-E8 is a fact.

Hypotheticals are not facts. Yeah-but-what-if-we-had-losts are not facts.

Al almost didn't make the tourney in 1977. What if he didn't, would he still be regarded with reverence? It's an interesting conversation, but it's not a fact. Because he did make the tournament and he did win the championship ... and Buzz was the head coach as we went S16-S16-E8.

[willie warrior]

Blame me, I wrote the article.

I think they are youthful in key spots, that would have been a better way to write it. 


On the rest of the stuff, all programs go through some of this stuff.  UNC this year is another example.  UK last year.  My points were several:

1) As good as Buzz has been, he isn't infallible and I think this was an awakening for some
2) Last year we so easily could have been one and done and the expectations (and worship level) would have changed a lot.  Perspective is key.  Razor thin.  Even the great teams often have games that they are not so dominant.
3) Fans, media especially, just assume what you did in the past continues in the future without actually looking at the makeup of the team or understating the key at the most important positions

OK Chicos--You can and most often do better than this. When Buzzo says who on our team has  elite level success, he should be called on that. He has at least 8 players on this roster who were at the Elite 8. What other Elite level is he talking about? HS? Most of these guys have been all state, all whatever. And as MU82 says below, that is the defense used by all the slurpers. Elite 8, Sweet 16's.
Buzz is grasping at straws to offer up reasons/excuses. And he gets people to buy it, i.e. 1.6 transfers per year, etc.
I have said before: OK give him a pass this year, because many rally and say "Well, even the best Teams like Ky., UNC, etc. suffer an off year. Then there better be significant improvement from a .500 year next year. Except with what we are losing from this team, IMO I do not see that happening. Repeat:
NBA facility; great practice facility; great dorms; a jet to recruit; 8th highest budget; a huge Coach salary deserves much better than what we are getting currently.
Enough of the excuses and hosannas for the past: Where's the beef?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

OK Chicos--You can and most often do better than this. When Buzzo says who on our team has  elite level success, he should be called on that. He has at least 8 players on this roster who were at the Elite 8. What other Elite level is he talking about? HS? Most of these guys have been all state, all whatever. And as MU82 says below, that is the defense used by all the slurpers. Elite 8, Sweet 16's.
Buzz is grasping at straws to offer up reasons/excuses. And he gets people to buy it, i.e. 1.6 transfers per year, etc.
I have said before: OK give him a pass this year, because many rally and say "Well, even the best Teams like Ky., UNC, etc. suffer an off year. Then there better be significant improvement from a .500 year next year. Except with what we are losing from this team, IMO I do not see that happening. Repeat:
NBA facility; great practice facility; great dorms; a jet to recruit; 8th highest budget; a huge Coach salary deserves much better than what we are getting currently.
Enough of the excuses and hosannas for the past: Where's the beef?

I work in campus housing. I cant tell you with professional assurance that Marquette has some of the worst put together dorms of any college in the nation. Even the brand new McCabe Hall is years behind what peer institutions are offering.

I wouldn't be surprised if this fact was actually a drag on recruiting.

[ChicosBailBonds]

OK Chicos--You can and most often do better than this. When Buzzo says who on our team has  elite level success, he should be called on that. He has at least 8 players on this roster who were at the Elite 8. What other Elite level is he talking about? HS? Most of these guys have been all state, all whatever. And as MU82 says below, that is the defense used by all the slurpers. Elite 8, Sweet 16's.
Buzz is grasping at straws to offer up reasons/excuses. And he gets people to buy it, i.e. 1.6 transfers per year, etc.
I have said before: OK give him a pass this year, because many rally and say "Well, even the best Teams like Ky., UNC, etc. suffer an off year. Then there better be significant improvement from a .500 year next year. Except with what we are losing from this team, IMO I do not see that happening. Repeat:
NBA facility; great practice facility; great dorms; a jet to recruit; 8th highest budget; a huge Coach salary deserves much better than what we are getting currently.
Enough of the excuses and hosannas for the past: Where's the beef?

I don't think I'm giving him a pass.  I'm saying the expectations were too high.  In my mind, there is a difference.  Look, I'm absolutely not thrilled with the lineups at times and his guard recruiting the few years has had me puzzled.  Of course, fans of every major program out there have the same types of qualms. 

He's the coach, he's paid the $$, he does the recruiting, etc.  He's absolutely responsible, no question.  He has some nice assets to work with as you have outlined.  Some not quite as nice as you lay out, but definitely good enough.

This was about explaining the expectations of media and fans and if Davidson didn't happen, how would those expectations have changed?  Elite 8 Elite 8 Elite 8 is thrown around all the time here, understandably so.  In my view, it led to these expectations, which were not very grounded.  Lose that game, I think many people have a different view of this year, certainly those that felt Buzz walked on water and will always find a way.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Good article CBB.

I think the main way that the end of the Davidson game affected this team was it set the stage for Blue's departure. I don't think that Blue would have had the confidence to enter the draft without the stellar performance that he put up in the NCAA tournament. I think he would have come back as a senior, maybe started at the point, and all of the sudden we are probably 18-2 instead of 11-9 (yes I think one player could have made that big of difference). We can debate that point, but I think we can all agree that this team would be better if Blue had stayed.

[JTBMU7]

Ok, but I would add this.  How often here or elsewhere among MU fans do you hear.....ELITE 8 thrown out immediately in defense of the team, coach, etc?  Or Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite 8?  I hear it a lot.  It's a source of pride, why wouldn't we.

Now take that away.....lose to Davidson.  How does that change things?  Are you having a few more doubts about this year's team?  Or are you assuming because of Elite 8 last year, that Buzz will just find a way...he always does....look, we were Elite 8 last year.   See where I'm going with this?  If MU can go to the Elite 8 with that team, well surely they can be every bit as good with two top bigs and a freshman class that hasn't been seen at MU in almost a decade....surely.  You get the idea.

Expectations get rooted, often, based on what you did not what you have.  Like it's never going to end.  I saw it at IU to a point I wanted to scream....and yes, it still exists there today, but some of it was finally cleansed.  It's good to have expectations, don't get me wrong.  It's good to have that in your program to want to expect to win all the time.  It just doesn't always work out that way.

my point is more that expectations for most teams were NOT (or should not be) set by a tourney run, but more by overall success - which is where i think this years high hopes came from.

If we'd lost to Davidson, we (and GTown) would still have been the BE Champs and had high expectations coming into this season. Post-season success had little to do with it.

MU won the BE conference last year in an arguably tougher/deeper league than this year, brought back a lot of experience and talent, and a proven coach. So i think expectations were pretty accurate based on all that and what we have consistently seen from Buzz's teams over the years (player development, new guys stepping up, etc...).

Now, in the end, they have lost 4-5 games that they were in position to win (SDSU, NM, X, Butler, Nova) in pretty frustrating fashion. The reality is if they are able to pull 2-3 of those out we'd be having a much different discussion.

not a bad thought/article, but i dont think 1 game altered the overall expectations all that much for most.  

[willie warrior]

I don't think I'm giving him a pass.  I'm saying the expectations were too high.  In my mind, there is a difference.  Look, I'm absolutely not thrilled with the lineups at times and his guard recruiting the few years has had me puzzled.  Of course, fans of every major program out there have the same types of qualms. 

He's the coach, he's paid the $$, he does the recruiting, etc.  He's absolutely responsible, no question.  He has some nice assets to work with as you have outlined.  Some not quite as nice as you lay out, but definitely good enough.

This was about explaining the expectations of media and fans and if Davidson didn't happen, how would those expectations have changed?  Elite 8 Elite 8 Elite 8 is thrown around all the time here, understandably so.  In my view, it led to these expectations, which were not very grounded.  Lose that game, I think many people have a different view of this year, certainly those that felt Buzz walked on water and will always find a way.

Not specifically talking about you giving him a pass, although there are many on this board that have used the "Bad year happens to even the great programs every so often", or "Leave Buzz alone--two straight Sweet 16's and an Elite 8" earn him the right to have a down year" excuses. So my point is OK, give him a pass for this miserable year, but that should be all given all the goodies Buzz gets and has to work with. And the way I see it, with what we are losing, next year will be another building year. Hell people are already offering that up to defend the guy. His players, his team, his rotations, his perks, his salary--now produce.

[willie warrior]

I agree that the overall success the past three seasons has somewhat spoiled us as fans. But to say that we would have viewed this season differently based on one ncaa tourney loss is a bit of a stretch... We also won the conference, beat Bucky, as well about 6 other really solid teams last season. So I don't buy that losing to a very under seeded Davidson team, who was widely picked to upset MU, would have drastically changed expectations for this year.

Georgetown lost in an upset in the first round, but they were picked to contend with us for the conference title. Would they have been picked ahead of us had they beaten FGCU and lost to Florida or Mich? We were picked to do well because we have a deep, talented, experienced, well coached team, and were headed into an unknown conference without a clear front runner.

The bottom line is our x-factors have just not materialized into anything that helps us win.
Lots of disappointing teams this year, we just unfortunately happen to be one of them....

I do not believe that coaches who make millions should expect "X factors" to kick in, nor should fans.

[willie warrior]

I work in campus housing. I cant tell you with professional assurance that Marquette has some of the worst put together dorms of any college in the nation. Even the brand new McCabe Hall is years behind what peer institutions are offering.

I wouldn't be surprised if this fact was actually a drag on recruiting.

Never heard that before, what about all the pretty pictures we have seen in the past? If you are correct, I guess another excuse has now been manufactured why we are getting our ass whupped this year.

[RushmoreAcademy]

I occasionally throw out s16-S16-E8 to defend Buzz in general (as opposed to defend every decision he makes) because S16-S16-E8 is a fact.

Hypotheticals are not facts. Yeah-but-what-if-we-had-losts are not facts.

Al almost didn't make the tourney in 1977. What if he didn't, would he still be regarded with reverence? It's an interesting conversation, but it's not a fact. Because he did make the tournament and he did win the championship ... and Buzz was the head coach as we went S16-S16-E8.

I like article Chicos, nicely done, but I'm on MU's side of hypotheticals just not being worth much.   There's just always another side.  What if we had held on vs. Xavier and then won both of our last two OT losses?  There are basically an endless stream of ways it could have played out, but it played out the way it did,  and that's just sports.  Every team has the exact same number of what-ifs, and they're the things that keep you up at night, but aren't worth much.

[MU82]

I also think a lot depends upon whose expectations are we talking about here.

The expectations of national pundits? All most of them know is what they hear or read and what happened in the past. So yes, certainly, the deep tournament run, combined with Buzz's history, suggested that MU would keep on keeping on.

The expectations of fans? Most fans are optimistic when it comes to their teams. Even if MU had lost to Davidson, most of us would have come into this season with fairly high expectations. I know I sure as hell had high expectations for 2002-03 despite the loss to Tulsa the year before. (Of course, we don't quite have the same talent on the roster this season as we did going into 2002-03!)

The expectations of other BE coaches who voted for us to win the conference? Who were they supposed to vote for?

As I said earlier, my expectations were fairly high less because of what we did last March and more because we were adding a supposedly top-10 recruiting class to a good returning frontcourt. Unfortunately, it hasn't panned out for various reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum in other threads.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

I take issue with Chicos using the word "worship." Who "worships" Buzz? We like him! He's a good guy and has had success here. Nobody's building a statue of the guy!

[bilsu]

It does not matter whether the Elite 8 run last year effected your expectations. It did effect the magazines that predicted MU to win the Big East this year. The prediction was also based on McKay being an impact player and Duane Wilson playing significant minutes, if not starting at point guard. We have all seen what a healthily Taylor could of meant to this team. Those are all significant losses. Throw in Mayo's suspension for our losses at Arizona St and Wisconsin and Gardner being sick against San Diego St and it is not too hard to realize why we are 11-9. The team is fighting hard as can be shown by the fact that MU has rallied the last three games to send them into overtime. I have accepted for a while that this is a disappointing season, but I also take into account the above things that were not planned that have derailed this team. I do not think Buzz's coaching is an issue, but we certainly can criticise his team building. Somehow he has to vet his potential recruits better. To many recruits do not last a whole season and I see that as a problem that Buzz needs to correct.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I take issue with Chicos using the word "worship." Who "worships" Buzz? We like him! He's a good guy and has had success here. Nobody's building a statue of the guy!

There are some that discovered he put his pants on one leg at a time for the first time this year.

[willie warrior]

There are some that discovered he put his pants on one leg at a time for the first time this year.

And there are many that still believe that an Asst. Coach puts his crown on for him.

[MU82]

There are some that discovered he put his pants on one leg at a time for the first time this year.

Anybody who worships any coach or athlete deserves to get a slap of reality occasionally.

[Bocephys]

There are some that discovered he put his pants on one leg at a time for the first time this year.

That's why I only worship this guy: