Our Breakdown of MU v. Villanova

[andymartinelli2]

There's really no way to sugarcoat this: Villanova is really, really, really, really good. And the numbers bear that out. So the next several paragraphs are going to paint a fairly unflattering picture when it comes to Marquette's chances of...

http://analytics.misix.com/villanova-16-2-5-1-at-marquette-11-8-3-3/

[Dawson Rental]

None of the sets of numbers used by Misix Analytics includes the Georgetown game, so we can hope that the recent emergence of Steve Taylor, Jr. and John Dawson will close the gaps they describe on Saturday.

[andymartinelli2]

Good point. Reason we didn't use them, in case anyone is curious, is because they aren't a common opponent yet and they aren't good enough to be considered "similar" to Villanova.

[jsheim]

Sure the stats make sense...but why do we play these games?

So we can hope to see Marquette win at the buzzer and somehow claw their way into the big dance and somehow make the sweet-16 and somehow cause all the prognosticators to scratch their heads and say "Marquette plays real hard basketball" ... because they don't know what to say and can't figure out how they did that ??!

Thats why we play the games and ignore the stats......hope.

[willie warrior]

Man, all those numbers do not look encouraging. they are good, but really, really, really good? Then how the hell did Creighton blow them out so bad?

Not buying it, MU by 3.

[GGGG]

Man, all those numbers do not look encouraging. they are good, but really, really, really good? Then how the hell did Creighton blow them out so bad?

By shooting the absolute lights out.  It has been awhile since I had seen a display like that one.

[willie warrior]

By shooting the absolute lights out.  It has been awhile since I had seen a display like that one.

So we can do the same and all will be well with the world.

[Marqevans]

Man, all those numbers do not look encouraging. they are good, but really, really, really good? Then how the hell did Creighton blow them out so bad?

Not buying it, MU by 3.

They did it with about 14 3's.  Hope we have that in our arsenal.

[Windyplayer]

There's really no way to sugarcoat this: Villanova is really, really, really, really good. And the numbers bear that out. So the next several paragraphs are going to paint a fairly unflattering picture when it comes to Marquette's chances of...

http://analytics.misix.com/villanova-16-2-5-1-at-marquette-11-8-3-3/

Solid analysis. But I think a lot of our optimism stems from the awakening that this team had on Monday evening. A lot of good things happened that night that have been well documented on this board. Had MU lost on Monday then this analysis would have been more fodder as to why we don't stand a chance, and that we're probably NIT-bound regardless. Monday changed everything. We all saw something that transcended numbers--a more comfortable and fluid offense when Taylor and Dawson came into the fold (and it benefitted everyone on the floor). We don't yet have a reliable sample size to capture what happened on Monday, but we know it was good, and there's reason to rejoice in it and hope for the best moving forward.

[LAMUfan]

They did it with about 14 3's.  Hope we have that in our arsenal.

21 3's actually (21 for 35 = 60% = lights out)

[MarquetteDano]

21 3's actually (21 for 35 = 60% = lights out)

Creighton averages 1.28 points per possession (strength of schedule adjusted) per Pomeroy.  That would be a record since Pomeroy starting posting tempo free stats.

[Windyplayer]

21 3's actually (21 for 35 = 60% = lights out)

That stat will blow my mind into perpetuity.

[willie warrior]

That stat will blow my mind into perpetuity.

Yes it's impressive, but we defend the 3 very well.

[wardle2wade]

I saw on twitter this week that 18 of Creighton's 21 threes were from beyond the NBA 3pt line.  Pretty astounding.

[Dawson Rental]

Man, all those numbers do not look encouraging. they are good, but really, really, really good? Then how the hell did Creighton blow them out so bad?

Not buying it, MU by 3.

Dude, if you're gonna finish off my pitcher of kool-aid, please make another one.

[Class71]

How about we just play the game and cheer them on?

[andymartinelli2]

How about we just play the game and cheer them on?

Agreed.

[Jay Bee]

Villanova = over-ranked and overrated.

Buzz knows James Bell well.

Nova's 53.6% eFG% is tremendous... MU's is only 48.7%

HOWEVER,
a) BOTH teams have 8 games this season in which they have shot less than 50.0% eFG.
b) Nova shoots a lot of 3's - some luck could be on either team's side tomorrow.
c) Nova's 54.6% 2FG% is ridiculous... but so is MU's 41.9% 2FG% defense.

...if Dawson plays a lot, he needs to watch fouls. Make Nova earn it via making challenged, difficult shots.

Good chance for a Marquette win in this one.

Other irrelevant notes:
- Dude with the hep is gone
- Josh Hart has surprised me a bit. Top 10 in offensive efficiency as a frosh?! Yeesh. He's making shots and not turning it over.. but really with Team Takeover... I was always impressed with his effort. Nonstop, all out kind of guy. And on that team there were a lot of bigger names..anyway, thought he'd be more of a glue guy / blue collar... but he's been really good so far this year.  That said, he's not as good as his number might indicate.
- Ochefu is a big time hack. Shouldn't be on the court for more than 20 mins. Get him in trouble early.

[TallTitan34]

For what it's worth they gave Georgetown a 64% chance of beating us and Villanova only 59%.

[Stretchdeltsig]

Our chances of winning are a heck of a lot better if Taylor and Dawson play more minutes that Otule and De Wilson!  Go Marquette!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Villanova's advantage is their shooting and athleticism. Their disadvantages are their size and defense.

Nova can run a lineup similar to Creighton where every player is under 6"8 but every play is a threat from 3. We saw what that did to MU in Omaha.

Nova only has one player taller than 6"8...and their one 6"8 player is the last guy in their rotation. They do have a 260 lber. Should be fun to see him take on Davante. He's not a great defender, I think Davante will be able to score. Both make their living by shoving around smaller players. Wouldn't be surprised to see some "extra curricular" activities.

Three pointers seem to be on our side at home. Let's hope this remains true. We can' win if Nova is getting double digit threes and we're getting 5 or less.

We can win this. I say MU by 4.

RING OUT AHOYA!

[Nevada233]

Our chances of winning are a heck of a lot better if Taylor and Dawson play more minutes that Otule and De Wilson!  Go Marquette!

Dawson will show up today!